Topic: Near term price prediction. (Read 3820 times)

"being right but still doing the wrong thing" - I never heard of it, why do you call it an art? This is the first time I've seen someone say that, and I'm curious. Can you explain?

You may be waiting some time. Mat is a grand master in the art of "being right but still doing the wrong thing"

Prolly sold all his BCH for BTC too

Mat was right. from $800 it went right don to $200. I was such an idiot for telling people to buy and hold because it was going to 5 figures

Here we are again, hovering around $700 could go as low as $200 over the next 18 months, it could bounce and hit 5 figures. Realistically speaking though, the next bubble it will probably be 6 figures. Make sure you are holding Bitcoin "p2p digital cash" when it happens

My brother just took a few grand out of Gox and took a 20% haircut right away as I converted his BTC to USD on Stamp immediately. I think a lot of the capital fleeing Gox will have the same goal in mind. BTC is in clear bear trend, Gox is insolvent and the premium on getting their capital out is going up by the day.

What you highlighted is very true. I have reduced my Bitfinex leveraged gambling fund to an amount that I don't care about losing (still enough to live on for 6 months). This has cut out a lot of my jitters when day trading and obviously keeping a rational state of mind greatly enhances my performance (cos it is basically like a sport for the mind). I love shorting Bitcoin!

As for the project, don't get me wrong, when I first heard about it waaay back in at it's inception in 2010 (I know it was born in 2009), I immediately thought it was an ultra cool concept offering huge liberalising potential. But that was then and this is now. The problem with Bitcoin is not the original concept (although there can be arguments that their were 'flaws' from the very start, i.e. Satoshi himself owns 12%), but the community that has adopted it and especially the minority that has come to control it. Avarice has taken over from the top down and is now the prevailing ethos in Bitcoin; avarice and delusions of grandeur. The original libertarian values have taken a back seat. So when I say 'I hate Bitcoin' or I 'love shorting Bitcoin', it not the concept that I hate but what people have made it. It has become a cut-throat avarice driven arena that is flooded with idiots driven to a state of wild delusion....the sort of idiots who derided and ridiculed my decision to to take a loss on some $1100 and sell at $1000 (I wish I knew about shorting back then). My first speculative Bitcoins were purchased at around $720, not $7.20. I can't afford to allow myself to be influenced by these inflated delusional idiots.

Now we stand on the precipice. Bitcoin is facing a death of sorts. Bitcoin has gotten far too much heat as a result of avarice driven whales encouraging a massive Bitcoin ramp up (the 'libertarian' thing to have done is not to have held, but diluted their holdings to spread ownership around) and the established powers will only allow Bitcoin to flourish if they can control it. It is that simple. I see an absolute bloodbath ahead where Bitcoin is either killed or ends up being largely owned and controlled by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. If that latter happens, then be sure, Bitcoin could go all the way to 10K.....but 'freedom' or 'believing in the project'........?

LOL.

Not in the world that I live in m8!

I HATE Bitcoin.

Matt,if there is the dump you dream about, I can assure you whale or not ,no one will get anything out of Gox
Only the greedy have stayed in Gox for the higher price, may come and bite thy arse
Gox is irrelevant and  finished unless Bitcoin goes to the trend lines
Adjust your mindset and believe in the project or don't gamble more than you can afford to lose.
From your posts it appears the latter applies

I dunno. I am presuming that there are a few whales on this board. I had every opportunity to become a 'whale' back in the day but never took it (I never even became a tiddler), I guess other Joe's in a similar and not so special situations to me might have done and it wouldn't surprise me if they were on this board. rptelia says he runs a fund that invests in Bitcoin. He has been saying that since I became aware of him pre April 2013. If he wasn't lying, then this fund has grown pretty enormous by now. If his Bitcoin fund is real and does exist, then it operated on MtGox. If it operated on Gox, he would have had trouble liquidising and now is the time to liquidise and take the hit.

Naive or not, seemed that the phrase I highlighted is bang on the money, wouldn't you now agree?

Mat, I realize you're in your "mild retard" phase lately, but this time you're going too far. Quoting the "whale" rpietila, taking anything he says at face value... you can't be that naive, can you?

Deutsche Botschaft here:

http://www.london.diplo.de/Vertretung/london/de/Startseite.html

Falchse Botschaft!

I certainly wasn't rolling it around to Magic The Gathering: Online eXchange. LOL!

Then you weren't rolling around a large ball of capital. (not a whale-rat)

I've been around longer than that... never used Gox.

Of course, I'm not a "whale-rat". LOL!

Roughly .............
730 Wednesday
700 Thursday
625 Friday
560 Saturday
600 Sunday
680 Monday
700 Tuesday

This whale has been around since $10 Bitcoin days, claiming its ultimate top will be in the region of $375K.

Whatever you got to say to that, if you traded Bitcoin in those days you done it on Gox. Knowhere else had near the volume for any remotely large fish to feed on.

FTFY!

And here is what called me out of my short sell behind that 1500K Ask wall on Stamp. A whale well known to this board getting his capital the fk out of Gox:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4778423

Wonder if any of the bulltards pointing and laughing at me in this forum are still feeling so confident in Bitcoin.

Dark days are immediately ahead for Bitcoin......unless you are shorting.....providing the shorting exchanges honour their debtors that is, which has happened not to be the case plenty times in Bitcoins past.

Woow, this reminds me even more of this boy being me in a life I never had.

No. This little boy had his soul sucked out his backside by sgbett.

sgbett paid the little boy's 'minder' for this privilege using Bitcoins.

So you mean this boy got his laptop stolen by sgbett and can now neither gamble with bitcoin nor joining us on the forum?

Wow, I think this could be me in a life I never had.

Just wanted to let you know that the little exchange above, between Mat and sgbett, is one of the most amusing things I've read in here for a while...

"Keep on showing your leveraged tits! Those juicy melons are prime stinging fodder."

"If all you avaricious wankers can consider Bitcoin hitting 1 million, I can consider the much greater likiliehood of it dipping under $100 again."

You guys are on a run. Don't stop

That is a drawing of an 8 year old boy after they have had a visit from uncle sgbett.

Dad?

MatTheCat has lost $200.

MatTheCat doesn't care.

MatTheCat still won't be going long. Cos MatTheCat believes that this is all just whales playing pass the parcel.

QFT

Wait, why were you not using the the maxleverage martingale strategy?!

This is all very exciting, will MatTheCat become the next Nagle or not? We can all watch this live!

Woo....my stop loss got called at 820 when the whales devoured their own monstrous Ask wall.

That is an 18 *4 Dollar loss for me.

I am so sad.

Thank you

true

Everyone who doesn't engage in the newly devised SHOTR martingale max leverage strategy will be sorry.  Quote me for truth.

SHOTR HARDER, there fixed it.

$828!!! SHORT HARDER

But MatTheCat never laughs I've noticed! Perhaps he hasn't been shotring enough in the past?

MatTheCat will have the last laugh and you should know this if you've been paying attention to all the confirmed bad news.  SHOTRING is the only workable strategy with bitcoin from here out. 

To be stung, one must expose themselves to the stingers. Keep on showing your leveraged tits! Those juicy melons are prime stinging fodder.

You are just another clueless dreamer with zero acumen who has seriously lucked out.

Whatever Bitcoin does, you are wealthy beyond your wildest dreams.

All in all, you are one of the very worst people to be giving out advice on how to invest in Bitcoin. Someone entering Bitcoin now, could be looking at a 50% haircut or possibly even more and actually. They could even be looking at a little dip into double figures again. No, don't laugh, I am being serious. If all you avaricious wankers can consider Bitcoin hitting 1 million, I can consider the much greater likiliehood of it dipping under $100 again.

I think Bitcoin is predominantly heading down. Therefore I shall be mostly shorting Bitcoin until there is so much blood and despair around, that it can only be ready to die off altogether, or shoot back up. If I can ride a $30 upswing at some point in between then I will take it. Catching a $30 swing can mean $500 profit to me. Yes Please! £30 down swing is even better, cos I leverage myself out my tits when I short.

Of all the 'drivel' that I have posted, you have chosen this thread, where I called a near term move perfectly*, to take a pop at me. That tells me that you must be feeling stung.

*NB. Nope, I haven't cashed in my short yet, we may head back up to that $815 - £820 where it was proven that there was zero interest, and perhaps the whale-rats will pass some bitcoins about their own wallets at this range to try and encourage sales.....but I don't see it happening. $817 is your new top for now. Now, take note that 817 is lower than 845 which is lower than 850 which is lower than 910 which is lower than 995. In other words interest in buying Bitcoin is falling away short of each previous high point in the price.

WhAt cAn EvEr Be HaPpeNiNg tO bItCoiN?

ROFLOL

My anticipation of that day consumes me with a fervour indescribable to the human mind.

My mind boggles at the potential variance in this textbook sideways channel.

I could be 5% up or 5% down, The possibilities - they are endless! Oh how the adrenaline races.

Unless of course BTC busts all kinds of nuts on your face and takes off again.

Not that it would *ever* do that.

It never does that.

Never.

Good for you. Hope that makes you feel slightly more clever for walking right into that blatant bulltrap that even a novice $50 rise there, $30 buck dip here daytrader like me could smell a mile of.

P.S Please hold all your Bitcoins. Don't sell any. Please. Do this for me and we will speak again in March.

My head is so bang. Much regret. So history.

I still have BTC that cost me a dollar, screenshot that bubba.

AFYI. As long as I believe that Bitcoin is on a bear trend, which I have believed since 2 days before the Dec crash, then I can only trade Bitcoin.


Unlike poor old Eddie, I change my dance to suit the tune.

I *know* that Bitcoin is in for a shocker to come. I have no idea what prices will be getting bandied about or even if everyone will get ripped off as an exchange goes out of business. We will see and probably not have to wait too much longer for things to hit.

MatTHECat is soooo many richez.  He make $1000 SHoTRing bitcoin.  ONE-THOUSAND-DOLLARS!!!!  So much more than all HODLRs.  I wish was like MatTHECat cuz in my country, we has only few hundreds doges.

Nowt wrong with wanting as many coins as possible for the least amount of outlay. There's no way I could take the strain of trying to time markets though.

Well, I banged this nail right on the head u fkn tosser.

Bitcoin did, exactly what I said it would do. On the screenshot that I removed, you would have seen my leveraged short sell at 816.32. Rarely do I time tops so well, but that was fkn clinical! Will see how my exit goes when I wake up tomorrow...hope it dont go tooo much lower than my exit point.

Only thing I got wrong was how fast it flashed by. I expected a right old queue of mugs to be lining up to be laden down with some overpriced whale coin....but no-takers after the pump it seemed.

Give me your Email and I shall send you a screen of my profits at your expense.

EDIT: Perhaps u are so touchy cos you are one of the mugs than ran into that blatant bull trap?

+2

If you believe in the long-term potential of bitcoin, MatTheCat, then just invest with an amount that would be a bit painful to lose, but not so much that you risk losing your home or hurting your family.  In 5 years time, following a disciplined divestment strategy (see Risto's SSS) you'll either have done extremely well, or you'll have a good story and life will go on.  

I won't name names, but there's someone who still comments here who *knew* that the bitcoin's fair value was $1.00 during the slide of 2011.  He refused to buy those few thousand coins he was waiting for, even at the $2 low.  Somehow he still maintains that he made the rational decision.    

+1.  If it weren't so fucking cold and snowy, I'd go get me some gin.

For weeks I have watched you post thread after thread of astonishing crap. I know my SNR is high, but wow you destroy me.

All this splashing around in a paddling pool, you make it sound like the world is watching. It's all just noise. You win some you lose some.

The way you are playing it you basically have a 50/50 chance of catching a break. Anything in-between is gambling, and by all means you do so, no skin off my nose, and if you make a few quid on the way then good on you, but the delusions that I keep reading about. Just wow. Mostly I just skim and marvel. Tonight, the gin is with me and I gotta spout some shit too.

Quote this for truth:

Buy as much as the fuck you can, right the fuck now. End of January comes and all the sell the (OMG CHINA BANNED BTC) rumours, are gonna buy the news. Not to mention all the "lets see what happens at the end of jan" dollars sat on the sidelines.

When we hit 5 figures your +/-$10 dance is going to look just as silly as all those people arguing about whether it was going up or down a dollar when we were at $12.

Fish. On.

Go and take a look at the Ask wall on Stamp:

https://www.bitstamp.net/market/order_book/

Never seen it so stacked. More stacked than it was two nights ago when Huobi plunged the market. Looks like a lot of folks are wanting/desperate to sell coins in between 815 and 850, never mind 900

At this very moment, I see prices continuing to hover around the 795/815 level for the next 10 to 15 days,
Then gradually retaking the 900 level. There we will have some kind of struggle, which will be resolved in a strong move down to an unpredictable level.

Thx

Updated: Well that played out much faster than I would have thought as it seems that after the whale-rat wallet A - whale rat wallet B pump, there was no dump! Instead, there was a severe shortage of mugs willing to go piling into the whale rat's buy wall in the $815-$820 range. Anyone who did what I said, will have done pretty well if they cash their short out even now (Bitstamp $801). Me, I am holding out for a good bet yet seeking multiple profits. Keep the losses small and the wins big...can't go wrong.

I only discovered shorting on Bitfinex very recently. If I had discovered it sooner I would have made a fkn fortune as I called the two big Dec crashes before they occurred and contented myself with trying to buy the dips. I done really well with the Dec 05 crash, catching the knife just $50 above its absolute bottom (i.e. the price that only the whale-rat gets to buy in at). On the Dec 17 crash, I called it again in advance, again to the derision of many on here, but this time I let all the bull-tard waffle on this forum get into my head, and I raised my buy-in tranches up $100 from the $400-$500 range (which I was assured was impossible) to a more 'realistic' $500-$600 range, which I was also assured was never gonna happen cos the Bid walls were so heavily stacked in this area. Well bitcoin went to $380 on this occasion and I bought in to the tune of about $25K at an average of $540. With hindsight, it was a stunning move, but unfortunately, I decided to start baby-sitting it at a very inopportune moment and lost my nerve like a little girl on particularly volatile $450 - $550 swing. I panic sold everything at $490.

If you are convinced like I am, that the market is in recession, in that no fresh capital is willing to enter at these price levels, and that the market makers are therefore undertaking to maximise their profits in a market which they know is going down (they control it, they dangle the bait, they know if the little fishes are biting or not), then trying to play the bounces is a mugs game. Far better to go short, entering market slowly at a point when you can see that the buying power is simply not going to push the price any higher, being sure to set a stop loss order to limit any losses you may might take.

Much better riding a bear market down trying to decide when to exit your short order, than sitting with your heart beating out your chest watch your buy-in level get taken out and the price continuing to plummet.

errr.. unfortunately, I'm uncomfortable with leverage, or shorts, or any of that kind of stuff. I will continue to wait for the dips, was just hoping you had some kind of feeling for at least a short-term bottom.

- and then I realize that there is no bottom for your bet. maybe I am starting now to understand what a "short" actually is.

Thank you again.

My gut tells me bad things are on the cards for Bitcoin. It doesn't know what, where or when, but just that these things are bad.

My mind tells me that the best investment strategy would be to wait for an obvious top where the buying power is clearly never going to push beyond it (or not much beyond it), and then short. I would suggest that this next stubborn top is going to be 815-820.

That is where I am placing my bets, but be warned. The only tip offs I have read on the internet that have come true, were the ones that I never betted on. So bear that in mind. If you bet on it, u probably gonna get stung, if you don't, good chance it will land pretty well.

I hope to have new fiat coming into the exchange by Wednesday by the latest. What do you think* feel is a good entry range?

*I mean what does your gut tell you, not your mind

Good thinking.

But lets just say that I am strongly convinced that a whole lot of bulltards are going to pile into the Ask walls at $815 - $820 range, in the expectancy that Bitcoin will rise at least to $845 - $850 like it did the last time, but of course, all that they will be doing is buying a mass of whale-rat coins at what will become yet another resistance point.

'twas 

Fun times.

You should not be posting this on a public forum! A user by the name of meelba comes to mind when I see this.

Smaller trade but can still have the same outcome for you

I agree with the "most harm" scenario, but it seems like you're ignoring the "most good" scenario.

So what if these hearings are positive? What if they provide guidance for exchanges and banking and inclusion in more traditional trading vessels (ETF, hedge/pension funds, etc.)

This scenario would place NYC as the epicenter of bitcoin, for better or worse.

All I'm saying is that there is a chance that a positive outcome could have an incredible impact. (also why IMO there is little chance of any clear outcome from these meetings - I just wanted to point out that there are outliers and "black swans" that should be taken into consideration when doing risk assessment)  

Here is my placed short bet.

"S'Gone"

I may get more funds onto Bitfinex and elaborate on it later.

You really should be going long on Dunning-Kruggerands.

It has exactly zero impact on policy at the national/global level.  NYDFS is not going to handicap NYC in competing with London.   Lawsky is an impotent slug.  The most harm than can be done is a few soundbites.  The economists speaking at the end of day 2 are probably going to generate some epigrams suitable for a bear's sig.

Yeah, Bitcoin is world wide.  Also, by its nature it is designed to be political neutral.  Sure, "they" can try to regulate it as they do with everything else (which is why the world is in the mess that it is in) but they will fail just as they have failed with the war on drugs, poverty, terrorism, education and everything else the state attempts.

Free market, free market, free market.  That is the only way to freedom and prosperity.

The more they try to regulate, the better it is for Bitcoin

It depends.

If the policy direction gets clarified without much ambiguity, then it is. NYC is a major financial hub.

Really? I think NYC hearing is quite important. It should, at the very least, provide some kind of guidance in terms of political policy.

Why exactly do you think otherwise?

I doubt NYC Hearing is so important

Please do.

I should add, only go long here if the bots let you bid under their inflated ask price. If you bid at the ask price, you will get in, but you will then invariably have trouble selling at the next top and will probably be forced to sell well under the spot price, leaving u not very much margin minus exchange fees.

I have been trying to liquidate a short position at a break even price point. I have been watching bitcoinwisdom and a couple of times I thought my buy-order was triggered, only to discover that it was another similarly sized order that outbid me by 1 cent!....."oooh silly me, if I only I had bid a little higher! I had better go chasing that Ask wall before its too late!!!"

most pathetic market ever.

Random guess:

NYC hearing negative = ~650
NYC hearing positive = ~1000

Quoted for future reference!

No TA here, as I reckon I am starting to tune into the manipulators script.

Bitcoin will hover around the level it is at but slowly grind it's way up to 814 level. At this point it will hover around and grind its way back down with the whale-rats springing massive trade orders into towering bid walls that have built up due to bots causing a chasm between buyers and sellers.

Go long here (but make sure you bid a good few dollars below the fake spot bot moulded spot price), have sell orders at around 814, take small profits and then short Bitcoin.

U read it here first!

EDIT: For posterity, may I add that Bitcoin was at 791 on Stamp at the time I posted this. Presently at 806 (whale-rat bot inflated prices that is, real price probably about 802). Those who went with my long trade will have done ok so far....I never got in cos I bid too low, but I have raised my bid (still under 800) and hope to get in a bit later on.

Updated: Well that played out much faster than I would have thought as it seems that after the whale-rat wallet A - whale rat wallet B pump, there was no dump! Instead, there was a severe shortage of mugs willing to go piling into the whale rat's buy wall in the $815-$820 range. Anyone who did what I said, will have done pretty well if the cash their short out even now (Bitstamp $801). Me, I am holding out for a good bet yet seeking multiple profits. Keep the losses small and the wins big...can't go wrong.