Nearly 4mil of coins lost forever | Bitcointalksearch.org

gentlemand

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Quote from: innocent93 on January 16, 2018, 03:48:58 PM

I don't understand the part with the lost coins, are they destroyed and if yes how, by who? I am really curious about this topic. Thank you in advance for your answer.

It's a pure guess for the vast majority and that guess is based entirely on them not moving for ages. I'd like a little more rigour before declaring them all dead.

There are only a few tens of thousands that are absolutely certain to be lost and that'll be coins such as those sent to burn addresses with no private key or known lost coins such Bitomat which deleted the keys for 17,000 coins.

innocent93

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

As you can see in the subject section, nearly 4mil (3,789,648 of high estimate and 2,767,468 of low estimate) are lost and bitcoin is in the existence of almost 9 years and right now we're on roughly 3.2mil lost and that puts us on 17mil of max coins to be mined.

Surely, bitcoin can go into decimals and there's still coins to be mined but still with the rising diff and the reward being cut in half, but in the next 10 years let's say that there will be another 1-2mil of coins lost, that will put us on the max number of 15-16mil coins.

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

(article that I've used for numbers: http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11)

I don't understand the part with the lost coins, are they destroyed and if yes how, by who? I am really curious about this topic. Thank you in advance for your answer.

shield132

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

As you can see in the subject section, nearly 4mil (3,789,648 of high estimate and 2,767,468 of low estimate) are lost and bitcoin is in the existence of almost 9 years and right now we're on roughly 3.2mil lost and that puts us on 17mil of max coins to be mined.

Surely, bitcoin can go into decimals and there's still coins to be mined but still with the rising diff and the reward being cut in half, but in the next 10 years let's say that there will be another 1-2mil of coins lost, that will put us on the max number of 15-16mil coins.

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

(article that I've used for numbers: http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11)

What if original miner doesn't exist too? Coins will be lost again, I think inactive coins, for example inactivity on wallet for 10 years must make it's coins zero and those coins must be mineable after that. With this we will get 21 million supply forever without even loss of one coin.
Another current hope is bitcoin into decimals but if fees won't be 100x lowered, it can't help us.

Panda Trump

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

As you can see in the subject section, nearly 4mil (3,789,648 of high estimate and 2,767,468 of low estimate) are lost and bitcoin is in the existence of almost 9 years and right now we're on roughly 3.2mil lost and that puts us on 17mil of max coins to be mined.

Surely, bitcoin can go into decimals and there's still coins to be mined but still with the rising diff and the reward being cut in half, but in the next 10 years let's say that there will be another 1-2mil of coins lost, that will put us on the max number of 15-16mil coins.

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

(article that I've used for numbers: http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11)

This study was conducted a while ago, I believe? Anyways, I don't understand how this is a bad thing. It simply means the same potential market cap, but less coins to divide it between, thus a higher price per coin...

Now onto the coins be lost. You think 1-2 mil of coins will be lost? The 4 million that were lost earlier, had no value when people bought them. When people buy bitcoins now, they know they have a lot of value.

Those 4 million currently lost Bitcoins came from a time in which Bitcoins weren't worth much more than maybe a couple cents, so if you bought 1000 Bitcoins for $5, you wouldn't really care... I mean... It's just $5, you could make that in an hour working at minimum wage. That's why so many Bitcoins got lost. People didn't care.

However, people would care much more about their Bitcoins now. As Bitcoins have a value of over $10000, I doubt people would just stop caring about their 1000 Bitcoins, as they would be worth $10,000,000.

Anyways, I don't really get what the "lost bitcoins" problem is about.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

As you can see in the subject section, nearly 4mil (3,789,648 of high estimate and 2,767,468 of low estimate) are lost and bitcoin is in the existence of almost 9 years and right now we're on roughly 3.2mil lost and that puts us on 17mil of max coins to be mined.

Surely, bitcoin can go into decimals and there's still coins to be mined but still with the rising diff and the reward being cut in half, but in the next 10 years let's say that there will be another 1-2mil of coins lost, that will put us on the max number of 15-16mil coins.

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

(article that I've used for numbers: http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11)

Its possible but would entirely depending on the decision would be made regarding on such suggestion but on my side I wont really bother at all considering that coins would be all mined for how many years even would be more than on our lifespan this is why I'm not really concerned about on those lost coins as long theres still on circulation and coins hasn't been completely mined then it would be just fine and not really a major issue for me.Bolded part there would always be a possibility of getting replaced to its spot.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 02:28:18 PM

That's why I've said 10yrs, taking into the account that people are holding for a longtime. So you propose that nothing should be done about those lost bitcoins?

Absolutely.

It's not the Bitcoin network's job, or the developers, or the miners to second guess when it's likely someone's given up on their coins. They either paid for them or mined them and for all we know they might have decided to keep them there until their retirement 60 years from now.

It's their responsibility and no one else's. Even if ten or fifteen million are gone it's more than enough to keep functioning.

vibingpositively

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No way it should be given back to the miners but I would like to see if it is possible to track the minimum amount of coins lost and deduct that from the total supply. That would give us a more accurate reading on how many bitcoins are in circulation and I am sure nobody would mind the jump in price either (actually future investors would but not current ones Tongue

).

cryptocrusher

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

As you can see in the subject section, nearly 4mil (3,789,648 of high estimate and 2,767,468 of low estimate) are lost and bitcoin is in the existence of almost 9 years and right now we're on roughly 3.2mil lost and that puts us on 17mil of max coins to be mined.

Surely, bitcoin can go into decimals and there's still coins to be mined but still with the rising diff and the reward being cut in half, but in the next 10 years let's say that there will be another 1-2mil of coins lost, that will put us on the max number of 15-16mil coins.

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

(article that I've used for numbers: http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11)

I don't see what the need is to return these coins to the original miner? All currencies are the same, there are amounts that are lost forever and they still make up 'circulating' supply. If it helps, just think of them like the ultimate holders, these guys will never sell their coins whatever happens. Similarly I don't see Satoshi's 4m coins ever being sold.

Tyrantt

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Quote from: gentlemand on January 16, 2018, 02:17:11 PM

Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

That's a godawful idea that craps all over what BTC should be about. People have the right to expect coins they park somewhere will be accessible in a couple of decades.

I don't believe this figure but I'm sure it is a significant proportion.

And you can't label a coin as lost simply because it hasn't moved. We do reasonably often see very early mined coins moving these days. I've had coins that didn't move for 3-4 years. They were certainly accessible any time I wanted to.

That's why I've said 10yrs, taking into the account that people are holding for a longtime. So you propose that nothing should be done about those lost bitcoins?

Quote from: Netnox on January 16, 2018, 10:28:47 AM

This is an inflated number, IMO. I guess that the maximum number of lost coins is somewhere around 2 million, even after including the Satoshi Coins (980,000 BTC). But we can only make wild estimates. There is no option of verifying this figure.

Maybe, but now when bitcoin is gaining popularity and therefore more people are using it, also a lot more exchanges and whatnot are in the game, the chance of someone loosing his bitcoins by just forgetting his private key is increased. Also, it's still 1mil BTC lost in the past ~7 years, basically at the start. Don't know about you but something should be done with those "forever lost" bitcoins.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

That's a godawful idea that craps all over what BTC should be about. People have the right to expect coins they park somewhere will be accessible in a couple of decades.

I don't believe this figure but I'm sure it is a significant proportion.

And you can't label a coin as lost simply because it hasn't moved. We do reasonably often see very early mined coins moving these days. I've had coins that didn't move for 3-4 years. They were certainly accessible any time I wanted to.

audaciousbeing

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

As you can see in the subject section, nearly 4mil (3,789,648 of high estimate and 2,767,468 of low estimate) are lost and bitcoin is in the existence of almost 9 years and right now we're on roughly 3.2mil lost and that puts us on 17mil of max coins to be mined.

Surely, bitcoin can go into decimals and there's still coins to be mined but still with the rising diff and the reward being cut in half, but in the next 10 years let's say that there will be another 1-2mil of coins lost, that will put us on the max number of 15-16mil coins.

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

(article that I've used for numbers: http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11)

This is actually something of concern, but I still feel things like this had already been made provision for in the original plan of bitcoin and that is why anytime discussion like this came up, I am not bothered. And also, assuming that 1-2 million coins will be lost forever in the next 10 years will be grossly inadequate because as much the difficulty in getting one bitcoin increases, the less likely that bitcoin will be lost.

Aside that, suggesting that bitcoin should go back to the miners after certain years would also be wrong because using that as a measure of forever is inadequate because there are possibility such coins are eventually discovered. Now imagined that I made an investment in bitcoin and forget about because I thought I lost the document to claim it but after 10 years I got only to discover its no longer there, that would be disappointment of the century as we have seen cases of people keeping their coins for as much as 5 years or more.

spraypaint

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This problem is caused by the owners of the coins being their own banks. I believe that in the future they could take stock of the coins that were actually lost forever and burn the losses and replenish the amount for mining.

Mometaskers

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This somehow made me feel bad for all those satoshis I left in the various faucets I tried when I first heard of bitcoins. They didn't even made it to my wallet. I know banks also do something similar when they print extra bills for money that may have been lost, except in their case there's no way to confirm whether those money were really destroyed (lost coins, wet bills).

I'm not sure how that can be done with bitcoins though I assume it would be easy to track "coins" that stopped changing hands. The problem is how to determine if those really are "lost" or someone just really bought lots of them and stored them without ever touching them again.

Netnox

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This is an inflated number, IMO. I guess that the maximum number of lost coins is somewhere around 2 million, even after including the Satoshi Coins (980,000 BTC). But we can only make wild estimates. There is no option of verifying this figure.

justin86

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We do not know if satoshi bitcoins were really lost, I think also more bitcoins than this study says can be lost and this will increase more.

Kprawn

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Quote from: Tyrantt on January 16, 2018, 10:08:32 AM

As you can see in the subject section, nearly 4mil (3,789,648 of high estimate and 2,767,468 of low estimate) are lost and bitcoin is in the existence of almost 9 years and right now we're on roughly 3.2mil lost and that puts us on 17mil of max coins to be mined.

Surely, bitcoin can go into decimals and there's still coins to be mined but still with the rising diff and the reward being cut in half, but in the next 10 years let's say that there will be another 1-2mil of coins lost, that will put us on the max number of 15-16mil coins.

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

(article that I've used for numbers: http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11)

Anything can be accomplished IF consensus can be reached. Wink

.... There will be a lot of resistance coming from existing

Bitcoin owners, if a suggestion was made to increase the coin cap, but if that is the need and consensus can be reached, it

can happen. {The probability that it might happen ---> 5% in my opinion} ...Bitcoin is after all, just a piece of software.

Tyrantt

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Need some spare btc for a new PC

As you can see in the subject section, nearly 4mil (3,789,648 of high estimate and 2,767,468 of low estimate) are lost and bitcoin is in the existence of almost 9 years and right now we're on roughly 3.2mil lost and that puts us on 17mil of max coins to be mined.

Surely, bitcoin can go into decimals and there's still coins to be mined but still with the rising diff and the reward being cut in half, but in the next 10 years let's say that there will be another 1-2mil of coins lost, that will put us on the max number of 15-16mil coins.

Are there any suggestions or works in progress to maybe return coins to it's original miner if the coins weren't touched in the last 10 years? Because by the time that last coin is mined, there will be a lot less coins in circulation (whole coins). Ignoring the possibility of some other coin like ETH replacing BTC.

(article that I've used for numbers: http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11)

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