Topic: Neven's Law: Only a Decade Before Quantum Computers Hack Bitcoin? (Read 287 times)

The discussion keeps appearing because the media keeps pushing the issue, trying to make it seem as if bitcoin is about to become obsolete by those computers and try to push people to keep their fiat and avoid bitcoin, however we know the truth which is why it is so easy for us to disarm those arguments, if anything this is similar to those fatalist predictions that we hear all the time and that at the end are resolved simply by improvements in our current technology, one example of this is peak oil, the world according to that theory should have run out of oil already, but thanks to new technologies we can find more oil while we reduce our usage, and a similar thing is happening here.

Developers are the ones who are very familiar with the speed at which technology is in progress. And I guess they know very well that the possibilities are unlimited so they must have known beforehand that quantum computers are very possible. And knowing this, they must have also started to explore options and security measures so that quantum computers won't destroy useful technologies such as Bitcoin. Actually as early as years ago, quantum computers have already been discussed and assurances were given that they couldn't actually make Bitcoin worthless.

Well, it isn't really "out of nowhere" since it's a legitimate concern. Although, it's highly mitigated for the reasons that you've specified above. By the time it becomes realistic to break Bitcoin, there would have already likely been alterations to Bitcoin to combat it.

The reason it keeps popping up every so often is because it's probably one of the only legitimate threats to Bitcoin. There are other threats obviously, however we likely have even more convincing solutions to them. Although, this, and the government globally banning Bitcoin is probably one of the more realistic threats to Bitcoin, and therefore it's natural for it to keep being brought up.

Earlier on this forum, some argued that quantum computers will not be created, and if they are created, they will never reach the power to crack the security codes of cryptocurrencies. A little time passed and quantum computers became a reality, and experts expect ten years to achieve such power, and even then this is in the worst case. We cannot wait for this time to expire, for then it will be too late to defend ourselves. It must also be taken into account that technological progress does not stand still and ways can be found that will significantly accelerate the growth in the power of these computers. It is better to play it safe than to lose this market later.

Yes, I know this has been discussed, and I've actually participated in some of those threads, but it's important for the community to be aware of all possible vulnerabilities to make the protocol stronger. Usually, when I make these types of posts, there is an academic making assertions in a prominent publication. At the very least, some people may learn more about bitcoin in a discussion of potential vulnerabilities. There is no point in completely ignoring the quantum computer vulnerabilities.

For some reason,the "quantum computers will destroy Bitcoin" discussion keeps appearing out of nowhere again and again.
OP,haven't you read the previous forum threads about quantum computers and Bitcoin?
I don't think that you are adding anything new to the discussion with your forum thread.
You are just repeating the same old stuff.
By the time quantum computers become a thing,Bitcoin will be:
1."Quantum resistant".
2.Replaced by a better cryptocurrency(if this is really possible).
Why bother about quantum computers?Don't worry about the future and enjoy Bitcoin while you still can.

So you think even at a high difficulty they would find blocks quickly? Would it not just be reorganization and then blocking of those IPs to prevent them from every going into the network again? Or as I said,,, is this not even the risk but rather that quantum computers simply break private keys? I still do not think that is ever likely to happen, and it is in a few years time anyway.

I still feel like I do not understand this problem correctly.

Then let us wait for that 10 years and see whether there will indeed be a first successful hack on Bitcoin. But not only had this issue already been responded to by developers, if at least a decade is needed for that hack attempt to possibly go successful, then that decade could probably be more than enough time for Bitcoin developers to somehow improve network and implement upgrades to resist what quantum computers could be possibly do.

The reorganization needs to be faster though as quantum computers are really fast, and what I mean by fast is that it can do billions of years worth of calculation in a matter of seconds, at least that's the idea behind it. I think there are a few that's already performing at those speed. We don't have to worry too much about it though, quantum computers wouldn't be used for that purposes unless a rogue state like North Korea has it, there's tons of research and development that quantum computing opens and I don't think that it's worth that much to use it on that.

Correct, if quantum computers which could break the current methods of encryption were developed and no one had the foresight to implement algorithms to resit them then we will have way bigger problems than bitcoin being broken, like people having access to secret files or even nuclear weapons, but the worries of those people will never materialize, even if it only took a decade for quantum computers to be fast enough to do this, that is more than enough time to update bitcoin and everything else so they are not vulnerable to quantum computers.

The problem is that Quantum Computers can't be used to make development on the existing Bitcoin blockchain and protocols, it's true that we can easily move towards another cryptocurrency that demands Proof of work even higher than SHA256, which means even the computing power of the supercomputers could be put to test, but then you obviously won't be able to achieve this using existing bitcoin, either we'll have to hard fork into a new cryptocurrency or pick a new cryptocurrency for ourself altogether. But to me, this looks really difficult for at least the next 20 years to come. Currently, the estimate is that it can take something around 0.65 Billion years for a 16 word private key to be cracked, I don't expect this number to come down to a few hundred years in atleast the next 20 years.

We all know that these theoretical situations and what if's will happen, and it has been discussed over and over again. The question is when, not what, and that's what most of the experts in the said field can answer. Sure, some quantum computers are already being developed, although not at a rate in which people should be worried. Then again, they are already present, and only need some more R&D before they can do something substantial. Plus, most of these quantum computers are going to end in the hands of scientists and research organizations, and not some rich guy wanting to make money off of crypto.

Also, don't be too complacent. Quantum computers have already appeared and their computational power is growing. This means that after some time, the threat to the security of the crypto-currency will become real. Techniques and technologies are developing and no one can give any guarantee that something will be invented that can lead to a sharp increase in their power. Therefore, it is necessary to think and take measures against such a threat in advance.
Even if high-powered quantum computers are scarce at first, I'm sure they will be used to break into wallets with large sums of money. The temptation is too great, and the contents of the wallets are visible for all to see.

Just because lots of people are uneducated about Bitcoin and unreasonably hate it because they've read uninformed headlines about Bitcoin and crypto. It's the same reason people want Bitcoin banned or think it is bad because of its mining. They focus their negative attention on the thing they don't like (due to not understanding it) and ignore the implications on everything else.

i.e. people don't say data centers should be banned for using lots of energy, because those data centers run websites and apps, which they already understand and use, but no-coiners don't use bitcoin and they don't yet understand it so they think Bitcoin's use of energy is bad. No-coiners don't focus on the fact that quantum computing would break the encryption of every digital service they rely on because they already use that stuff, but they don't yet use Bitcoin so they just talk about the negative of how they think quantum computing will destroy the thing they don't use and don't like because their narrative is about attacking the thing they don't understand.

I'm no expert, but a decade seems a bit aggressive of a prediction. Quantum computing is still in its infancy. It's not just about finding more ways to add qubits to get to the required complexity, but there are serious fundamental problems with quantum computing that need to be solved. Solving these still could be numerous years away, so it's not a straightforward shot of improving techniques like adding transistors to a traditional chip.

And from what I understand the only Bitcoin that would be endangered would be bitcoin that is still held in the original address type, of which there are like two million left, so half of that is Satoshi's - though this does make me think before quantum attacks happen Bitcoin needs to essentially blacklist that address type otherwise those coins that don't get moved are guaranteed to be stolen, philosophically i don't agree with this but it's either do this or 1-2 million bitcoin gets stolen. And for all other address types anyone who re-uses addresses could be attacked with quantum computers, so avoiding quantum attacks really just involves using best practices when making transactions. These are the two things that we need to worry about in the 2030's probably.

From what I understand, with far superior quantum computers from what could be used to do what i described in the last paragraph - so now we're talking probably during the second half of this century - it is possible that they could become so fast that they could crack a sending address' private key within the block transaction time and therefore try to override the initial transaction and send the bitcoin to the attacker. This would require quantum computers orders of magnitude more powerful than just what is required to hack things as described above. And what would be needed to mitigate against this would be new quantum resistant tech in Bitcoin and all addresses move over from current address types to those new ones. But again this probably isn't needed for several decades.

So the only thing that needs to be considered in the next 10 years or so would be getting people to move all Satoshi-era coins to newer address types and what to do with all the coins that are lost from that era - either let them get stolen eventually or I guess hard fork that address type out of the protocol, neither of these is ideal but a one time hard fork would be the better option I think.

Anyway i only have a layman's understanding of the technical details of bitcoin and quantum computing but this is what I have gathered from stuff I've read.

I wonder why everyone is so focused on Bitcoin and Quantum Computing. This topic has been discussed so many times before. If the encryption used by Bitcoin can be broken, then many other things can be broken, such as online banking, secret correspondence, etc. because the world is built on this encryption. Then Bitcoin would not only have a problem but the whole digital world.
In addition, there are already many scientific studies of algorithms that are quantum safe. These would simply have to be implemented and the issue would be settled.

If I had a dollar for every time someone was saying quantum computers were coming for your bitcoin I would have a lot of dollars.
If quantum computers can come in and hack bitcoin encryption. Then every other form of weaker encryption out there is also broken.
BTC is going to be the least of out problems. When banks, governments and everyone else running older applications / devices wake up and find out they have no security since it's been broken.

-Dave

If quantum computers come close,,, and assuming the country or organization that has it is willing to spend all that money just to hack Bitcoin, then they finally succeed. What happens?

Bitcoin reorganizes and then work together to ignore or invalidate all the IP associated with the quantum computer, right? This is my understanding or is it simply the risk that it breaks open people's wallets?

Bitcoin is being upgraded all the time. Why do you think that we would not see this coming and do something against it? Nobody is going to invent real quantum computers capable of doing an amazing feat such as that within a single day.

I see absolutely no reason to start worrying yet. Unless aliens land on our planet and give us amazing, mind boggling technology that would turn our world upside down, no, there will be no "surprises".

Seems logical. But the thing is that ut us not as easy as breathing to acquire such high technologies. Amd so, we can only expect that such technology will only be available for the government or the richest people if they can manage to hide or get away with it. But by the time this happens tho, I think that bitcoin has already improved even more and has solved more problems it already has and some that may come.

Does this take into account improvements towards Bitcoin's, well, whatever backend techy side there is? I'm not particularly sure how it should actually work, but I reckon it should have at the very least paths for improvement that would counteract developments like the quantum computer thing OP said. After all with the way people are rather pro of Bitcoins long term development, it developing something against Quantum computers shouldn't be all out of the picture, unless ofc, some madman suddenly rushed the development and made it within a span where Bitcoin had no way to make improvements.

I'm very skeptical towards predictions like that, even when they're based on something more or less reasonable. In the 70s, it seemed very reasonable that people would visit planets on a regular basis by the beginning of the 21st century. Not only we're not visiting them regularly, but we haven't visited a single one. This century was marked by huge technological progress in the area of computing devices, and quantum computing seems very close now. But it's totally possible that we won't have nearly as much innovation over the next decades as we had over the 2000s and 2010s. Instead, I believe it's likely we'll turn to medicine because its level of development so far is quite limited (compared to what we achieved with space and with computers), and also because the pandemic pushed for more attention to it. Unlocking Bitcoin might not even be a question of when. And if it is, I'm sure cryptos can evolve into quantum-resistant forms once the technology is there.

Although, as soon as any country breaks Bitcoin it effectively becomes worthless, along with any other technology which uses the broken algorithm, which is numerous. That's obviously assuming they could do it quick enough that Bitcoin or any other technology hasn't moved on to quantum resistant algorithms, which do exist.

It's far more likely that if this did happen then there would be higher priority targets than Bitcoin. Though, again it's very unlikely that quantum computers advanced so quick that we don't have enough time to implement a safe, and controlled way of mitigating current addresses to a new algorithm.

While the progress of quantum computers could be considered exponential by some, that still isn't quick enough to break Bitcoin over night, and it's ludicrous to even claim that its even remotely possible.

I think there will always be interest by many people on the supposed threats posed by Quantum Computing because we assumed that it can put the brake to Bitcoin as the technology can then be able to hack into your wallet and can take away your BTC and transfer them somewhere else - maybe to North Korea or Russia or even Iran rogue countries that are willing to use any technology to sow chaos and get money they need at the same time. Until this time, there is no categorical answer if QC can really be able to do this or not...so maybe we have no choice but just wait and see what can be and in the meantime we can continue on speculating on things.

Quite possible! I do not disagree with this! There are nations like North Korea who always tries to demolish the upper hand of western nations. And Kim Jong Un is a retarded person so he may try to do such act if he gets access to such quantum technology.

But when you say we jeed to prepare for this, what are you proposing? A code update? Please explain what's in your mind.

That's because a quantum computer is a specialised computer which is made specifically for a certain task. They aren't going to improve Bitcoin per say, at least not directly. Quantum computers only benefit to Bitcoin which is at least predictable would be the fact that it'll force us to change to a more secure algorithm. Other than that the threats outweigh the benefits. That's not to say that there isn't any option, but to panic since there's already solutions. Although, the solutions currently aren't ideal, since we would have to convince everyone to move their coins, and realistically that probably isn't going to happen.

This isn't exactly true either. While, there are definitely limitations to how far a certain technology can evolve without relying on other things, quantum computers have been growing exponentially in recent years compared to ten years ago. This is just because of the additional funding, as well as the increased attention its been receiving. Anyway, the point being is that as it's with any industry, certain things grow much quicker than other parts of the industry, and that's somewhat true in this case.

The biggest challenge for quantum computers isn't achieving the power required, its justifying the costs to run them, since they need some pretty serious housing to have running optimally.

exactly! i dont think btc devs will be sleeping before that happens. throughout these years, they are in continuous development according to what is needed. so before the supposedly impact of quantum computers, i also believe that btc is ready for that situation. this is not the case of sudden influence in btc tech, this will be years in the making and before then, btc devs already found a solution to address the possible impact of the use of quantum computers.

The issue with those predictions is that somehow they assume that everything is going to remain static while quantum computers keep going forward, it is obvious that at some point the threat is finally going to be big enough for the developers to finally tackle the problem, and once they do this supposed threat by quantum computers will be overcome before it does anything at all, so there is no point in worrying about it when it is a nonissue now and it will be a nonissue in the future as well.

One possibility is a hostile nation-state developing or acquiring this technology and deploying it. Already we see North Korea implicated in very serious cryptocurrency hacks. There are also rogue groups of organized criminals who may one day have access to this technology.

We need to start preparing for this as soon as possible.

Those aren't scientific laws but extrapolations of existing data. Traditional computers are already starting to approach their limits as it begins to be impossible to make the transistors any smaller due to the laws of physics. Who knows at which point quantum computers will hit their limitations? Maybe long before they can crack Bitcoin.

And anyway, programmers have came up with quantum-resistant cryptography decades ago. And you don't need quantum computers to run it. If there will indeed be a threat from quantum computers, it will quickly get adopted, not only by Bitcoin, but by everyone. "Quantum computers breaking Bitcoin" is nothing more than a FUD for scaring noobs.

....aaaaand Quantum Computers wont be used to strengthen Bitcoins
code/network/development?

So many people think that some say QC's will be unleashed and computing
chaos will happen all of a sudden, by surprise.

Its a development, it takes time and so everyone moves at the same pace including
Bitcoin core, Mining ... and hacking

Theoretically a lot of things can happen but the reality is something very different than theory. Even if I assume that a quantum computer becomes capable enough to break SHA-256 algorithm, do you think any company who will own a quantum computer that time, will trigger this activity? Not only it will bring millions of lawsuits around the world on the organization also they will earn a very bad reputation which might force them to wrap up their business activity. It will create a global outrage if some organization tries to defy the law and brings down bitcoin.

So in theory it really doesn't matter if a quantum computer is capable of bringing down bitcoin or not, I don't see anyone will like to commit their quantum computer to such heinous act. They must be having important matters to look at rather than hacking activities.

I don't think that's a good assumption. At the end of the day one should understand the fact that quantum computers are going to be available to everyone because at the end of the day they are super expensive and most government websites are more vulnerable therefore if the government just hands them out then there will be a massive disaster Plus have you seen their size as well? They are not easy to be put in a room , definately in the upcoming years we can see a lot of improvement but who is to say that we won't see improvements in Bitcoins as well? Cannot we integrate the quantum computers with the mining ? Making it more easier and efficient ? Who knows it's all tech we have to wait to see the effects.

New article from Decrypt: https://decrypt.co/91255/researchers-suggest-quantum-computers-only-decade-cracking-bitcoin

"Mark Webber and his colleagues from the Ion Quantum Technology Group at the University of Sussex concluded that quantum computers need to be a million times larger than they currently are before ever cracking Bitcoin’s SHA-256 algorithm – an algorithm first published by the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) in the early 2000s."

[...]

"In traditional computing, Moore’s Law dictates that the number of transistors in a microchip doubles every two years, while the cost of the computers is halved."

[...]

"In the world of quantum computing, this law has been replaced by Neven’s Law, which dictates that quantum computing power undergoes 'doubly exponential growth relative to conventional computing.'"

[...]

"So, if quantum computing hardware improves exponentially faster than regular transistor circuits, then theoretically it could one day eventually crack Bitcoin’s code.

"It’s just a question of when."