Topic: New and important analysis of bitcoin (Read 315 times)

another speculation here,more and more but it seems that market is not coping on what you are talking,we are still continue to up and down but only a little value.

we are already in 4th quarter now yet nothing is happening mate,i believe that we will move good in novemeber if not then by 2021 is the next
 chance since the vaccine for the virus will be in market.

That's good news so we are safe to fall below the $10000 level, it's the Chinese contribution that makes the price to move forward, the Chinese owns most of the mining rigs, the top exchanges in the market and some of the top coins in the market, I'm checking the price movement for the last five years and there's an indication of a big fall before we headed to another all time high let's see, if history will repeat this time.

It is not going to be easy to keep it above 11.5k because we are around 10.5k right now, which means we first need to go above 11.5k and if we reach there it looks like we are in a bullish run and we are not going to drop under 10k at all, we are going to be fine and safe. However at the same time if we do not go above 11.5k that means we are not in bullish run and it means we could drop under 10k as well and go down pretty hard.

Moreover bitcoin will make a move eventually, I know we have been around the same price for few months now and that is why people want to see some change, down or up, but it may not come soon, we are doing fine right now and as long as people are not jumping into bitcoin to change the prices and just watch from far that means price will not change any time soon.

I did think we sold off below 10k during September start but as the daily bar did not close on that price it will not show as the most significant price which is bar close not range.   I do think BTC rises long term but we can still fall in this year even with buying such as this, the most important investor is not represented especially due to being the smallest.  I still think the smallest users count the most and might be the most dedicated long term, all other speculation relies on those who will return to BTC as a user more then this idea of investment.   Greyscale is charging 2% a year for its services, thats really above what most funds I can obtain would charge so I wont rely on them especially for a main indicator of likely success in BTC maybe a reflection of confidence by finance investors especially.

The news about the market tend to influence many people everytime market changes, and through fud on social media together with articles initiating panic stories; we experienced more fluctuations. Bitcoin started to gain good momentum last August, but unfortunately it went back to bearish trend.
As I've read some news during that month, predictions also rolled over that it might bounce and recover but nothing happened because same old story has been foretold.

This market doesnt really rely on news from time to time since this would just move out anytime with least expectation from us or without any sentiments that do float around and this what makes even more difficult.

$14k price is realistic for upcoming months to come but im not really that expecting much that we would hit up ATH anytime soon.Lots of analysis will surely fly around which is expected for a speculative market.

When searching up for some valuable analysis then its better to tie it up with yours and make a new analysis that will help out into your decision making.

I understand that we have been around this price for a long time which does put a big strain on the buyers and the holders which could turn into holders and sellers respectively but I also think that sellers can't continue to sell forever neither.

We have tried to go up and failed but that fail means that there was a lot of people who sold at the same time as well and those who sold are not really doing it for just joy, they are losing bitcoin while they do that and they can't rebuy that quickly. This means that people who bought may not continue to buy forever but people who sold can't continue with that neither, and in the end one of them will quite before the other one.

If the buyers stop before sellers we will go down like you imagine but if sellers stop before buyers we may go up as well.

These small time (well not small but quick) changes in investment companies outlook towards adding bitcoin (or crypto in general) to their portfolio will be a long term deal and not something that will make a change right now. Obviously 11k is a hard barrier to break but it will be broken, even if we go down right now, we will eventually be over 11k one day. Hopefully that happens sometime soon but even if it doesn't we could still buy from here and make a profit eventually and knowing that allows people to keep bitcoin above 10k since all of them knows that it will be a profitable purchase around here.

However none of this price movements are related to neither grayscale nor any other company, that thing is more long term for bitcoins future and not the price right now.

here is another analysis of Bitcoin price with the Gold anticipation

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/analysis-of-bitcoin-dependence-on-gold-along-with-10000-channel-analysis-5278935

In which i believe one of the reason why the price is still stagnant at $10,000 level,Imagine we have took almost $12,400 price in short time but now we cannot even pass this 10k?

but we are now closing to 11k again hope this week we will break it and climb tp 12k again

Bitcoin seems to range only in in same amount this fast few months, price volatility somehow depends on news or market status and there are no news or events yet that can break in this amount whether to goes up or down, but we still need to monitored the market even there are no signs of what trend may happen next. Monitor and still be ready since we can't predict how volatile still the market is.

Honestly this is looking more and more like a stabilized market because for the past 2 months we haven't moved to any direction at all. We are not breaking above 12k, we are not breaking under 10k and it has been between 10 and 12 for over 2 months now, getting closer to 2.5 months.

I understand that we are in a volatile market and bitcoin will always move eventually and I get that eventually it will be under 10 or over 12 because it can't stay like this forever but maybe we just have to love the current version as well? I understand that people make more money when the price moves, the people who short futures makes money from going down and everyone else makes money when it goes up but maybe it is quite important to appreciate the unchanging stabilized version of bitcoin as well.

^ We expect always surging and there was always a bull market and hoping that the bullish trend that was happened last two years ago will back in the market. We have this anticipation always but sometimes listening to the news will make my strength weakened due to the media are now throwing different issues on bitcoin because of a lot scam happened. However, no one can stop my prediction that it will surge the pirce ion the market. I have an insight that it will become $16k at the end of this year.

I expecting more changes as we closely reach to the 4th quarter of this year. The market keeps calm this time, the current movement is quite low and less volatile than of previous days. Seeing $12k back on the line or surging high to $15k before we end up this year it seems to be possible. I don't see such pressure for the whales to help it out but maybe they can make it possible and have this Christmas season a joyful one despite the pandemic hits us.

We don't know if things will go rough or not with bitcoins but seems all is questionable right now since we don't have strong events where we can rely on, Maybe we can see those $14,000 estimated price come in future but there's no guarantee that we it can hold the same on what happen today  at $10,000 price. I'm sure many whales want to see a price dumping but if majority will be on green side for sure the hype will follow and might we can surpass all predicted closes figure in year end.

many play with the bitcoin movement to find weaknesses and provide benefits for themselves. I do not really believe in large investors who only provide a shocking effect but will not affect those who still hold other bitcoins to ensure that bitcoin is still the best and will continue to move to increase in time. many expect improvements and don't be fooled by things we don't believe in. we believe bitcoin is still a lot looking for and making an attractive and profitable investment.

I hope the strong fundamental news should be more of positive one this will triggers the bullish run of the price of bitcoin to reach $14K I hope not the other way round i.e not all those huge bitcoin stolen in an exchange, whale manipulations, clamp down on big exchanges e.t.c which can result to massive dump ie bearish run.
The price had main a bullish stability above $10K  for many days which is not bad at all if the price can close above $12K at the end of the year, that means cryptos market in 2020 was bullish.

I don't think there's a thing like fundamental issues, it's either present in the beginning or not. How can it be positive though it is in an issue? $14k is a good rough estimate though, and it seems this is the consensus for now. Of course bearish people doesn't want that price simply because they want it go to lower and probably went into a buying frenzy. However, they are going to wait, or it might not just happen this year.

That 64 days of summer is probabky EXTREMELY bullish for bitcoin.

And yeah there's always the idea we could plateau for quite a while longer yet (am other month maybe). But the utumn normally brings an asset bleed afaik.


I'd still expect a max of about a $6k move in either direction in one or two legs - probably wouldn't be fast though.

Some are still calling for $2-3k, I'd put something on us getting to $16k no matter how the rest of the year goes (probably by q2 next year because early predictions are risky and it'llddepend on the next break).

Of a truth it is very difficult to predict the next move in bitcoin pricing. The market seems to wait for a strong fundamental issue and I hope it will be a positive one. I believe that bitcoin may test $14,000 resistance level again before end of this year.

Didn't realise that 17K worth of bitcoin were bought by Grayscale again. Its also bullish how that one investment firm bought like $500 million worth of BTC last month. Their average price was $11111. However the fact that price is still not >$12K is a little concerning.

Basically Grayscale buying, $500M hedge fund buys, BTC locked in wrapped ETH, etc should mean less supply and higher prices however its not. Seems there was tons of buying but an equal number of selling which is not good. I guess this is mostly due to what is going on in the global markets and how a second wave is happening and people might be moving to risk-off assets instead of stocks and crypto.

We will see what happens with the election and with the vaccines which should come out in about a month or so.

This is the worse feeling as a trader. Your decision is hang on the thread whether to do a solid hold or buy back. Especially when you are using future trades it could give you fortune instantly and make your money 0 if you carelessly pick wrong side.

This is why I still believing that this is just a long rally but once the bitcoin fully reach and stay on 12k price with a long period then we can see a steady growth maybe trigger bull run which is more solid than the last one.

Yeah, and the current sentiments is greed according to this: https://btctools.io/stats/crypto-fear-and-greed-index


I guess the action might pick up this October, just months before the end of the year. We could go to $12k. But maintaining $10k is still healthy, and we are still in the net positive this year, although we have seen the price crash more than 50% in March.

You forgot to mention that Bitcoin stayed above $10000 fro straight 64 days. That never happened before. In 2017 it was above $10000 for 62 days in a row.  Last year Bitcoin went 4 times over $10000 and back under. If we add all those days together we get 77 days.  This year we had 5 days in February and 64 now so 69 days. It is obvious Bitcoin will stay above $10000 for 8 more days. This shows a solid trend.

Yeah we're quite balanced between bearish and bullish sentiments atm (which could be the calm before an imminant storm).

I don't see it unlikely for us to see a volatile move at some point in either direction. 12-12.5k formed quite a strong resistance but 8.8k-9k could prove to be stronger...

After slightly stabilizing above $ 10,500, Bitcoin tried to take a bullish momentum and test resistance at $ 11,000 to $ 11,100. The area served as a support in August, and the SMA50 is there daily.

It seems that breaking this area is very difficult and may limit the market cows in the short term. However, the fundamental analysis of Bitcoin is very positive in the long run, and it is possible that the king of cryptocurrencies will be on the verge of starting a strong uptrend.

Investment company Grayscale added 17,000 bitcoins to its capital last week. According to Bybt.com, this is the largest asset purchase by the company in the last three months.

http://s15.picofile.com/file/8409521792/Grayscale_investment_position_637368739901950624.png


The total value of this purchase at the current price of Bitcoin reaches about $ 200 million, and the total value of the bitcoins purchased by this company brings the investment to $ 4.8 billion.

These moves show that the interest of investment institutions in buying bitcoin has changed. Microstrategy also recently announced that it has spent nearly $ 500 million on bitcoin. According to FXStreet, about 90% of investment firms will change their portfolio within the next 5 years, and digital currencies will be part of it.

Rising political tensions and economic crises in the world continue to affect the digital currency market. For this reason, the rise of bitcoin as long as global markets are uncertain may be problematic.

During this time, Bitcoin has moved up and down the US stock market, and the US election, as well as the new wave of the Corona virus epidemic, could once again have an adverse effect on the digital currency market.

From a technical point of view, as long as Bitcoin is above $ 11,500 to $ 11,800, it still has bullish potential. IntoTheBlock data suggest that the high volume of bitcoins in a resistance area may prevent bitcoin prices from rising. According to this information, 1.1 million Chinese block addresses hold more than 800,000 bitcoins.

This area can reduce the buying pressure in the market. Holders who have been holding hands for a long time may also intend to sell their assets and weaken the uptrend.

On the other hand, Bitcoin can be seen at the top of healthy support. About 1.4 million Chinese blockchain addresses bought about 1 million bitcoins between $ 10,500 and $ 10,800. This area makes it difficult for market bears to fall in price.

Source:FXStreet