Topic: New diff thread .diff in the 0.2% to 12.8% range. covers Nov 4 to Nov 17? (Read 4766 times)

one more for the spec threads.

yeah usually the average of bitcoinwisdom and bitcoin charts which would have been about 6.1% is very close to get well under 2 % was a score.

real test coming up as bitmaintech gave out a lot of coupons on the 16th of nov.  so right now we are low but I think in 6 days to 7 days we will pick up quite a bit.

diff ended at under 2% I am locking this


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s


S-1 stopped and s-3 started  around june 29 2014 I call this the line

Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s

s-1 came out marked easy access to 2 watt gear.
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339   35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766   19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013   31,256,961   19.47%   223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013   26,162,876   22.63%   187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013   21,335,329   10.32%   152,724 GH/s

new thread is here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=864274.new#new

It really is amazing considering beginning of this difficulty.  I thought it would go down but had no idea of this.

  better then I had hoped for.

Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
just purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrfect!

next jump may be worse. bitmaintech  gave out soooo many decent coupons  i think they will sell a lot of gear.

50 off on 1 s-3

well 100 off on 2 s-3's  

400 off 1 s-4   this will sell gear.

we are done to 4 blocks and under 1.8%

It's looking great compared to beginning of change.  I will be happy with 2 or less.

Well it looks to be  at just under 2% with  5 1/2 hours to go

Yeah I think low growth is sticking around for now.

Look at this nice trend. Nice if you're a miner, that is.

well don't know why but diff dropped just a bit over night .

todays numbers at

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   >>>>>>>>>> (+1.98%)

BTC = 397 USD

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,385,955,869 (+1.98%)
Adjust time:   After 205 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?):   290,064,664 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes


and at http://www.bitcoincharts.com  >>>>>>>>>>>>> (+1.81%)

Blocks   330419
Total BTC   13.511M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   40324260391 in 205 blks
 
Network total   305024.736 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.46 / 558 s


so with a little more then 1 day to go diff may be 2%.  I had thought it would be more like 4 or 5%

Cross my fingers.

not sure but would be cool if it were.

   I would like it if it were true... KNC comes to mind.

another farm in fire? from over 10% to only 2% and looks like going down a bit...

With 2.3 days left numbers are :

 btc = 377usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>       (+2.22%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,482,069,778 (+2.22%)
Adjust time:   After 341 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Hashrate(?):   291,765,602 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>   (+1.36%)

Blocks   330282
Total BTC   13.507M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   40144276705 in 342 blks
 
Network total   271776.341 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.75 / 626 s


This looks to be under 5% jump and may occur on the 18th of nov not the 17th

with about 3 1/2 days to go to next jump

todays numbers are:

BTC = 387 usd at coinbase  


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>   (+1.66%)


Blocks   330130
Total BTC   13.503M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   40263173704 in 494 blks
 
Network total   287388.314 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.08 / 592 s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>> (+3.01%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,793,804,930 (+3.01%)
Adjust time:   After 492 Blocks, About 3.4 days
Hashrate(?):   287,734,941 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:   8:50 (1.5 minutes ago)

evga is at the top. also a unused or not much used server psu is there too
i look for cheap s3 too

i buy them second hand and locally. hp, ibm, fujitsu siemens, etc, some are made by delta, good company. i find them good as comparing the exhaust temperature, the deltas are giving offf almost no heat; noname's psu are hot as hell and make screeching sounds

  Yeah I buy only evga's I get a 5 year or 10 year warranty with them.
  The mistake people do is buying used 10-20 dollar server psu's these save money upfront but in 1 year they lose money to the evga's.  If you have been mining for 2 or more years like me all the evga's are paid off still under warranty. 

I wait for s-3's on ebay from good sellers been working so far.

WHat psu's are those ? Where you buy them so cheap ?

yes it is! i have 12psu's most of them bought at 10$ a pices just perfect 2psu/1antminer

The PSU's become a asset them self.  It hurts to order a new one.  But sure is nice when switching to newer gear having PSU's bought in past.

it is addictive! i'll buy second hand, new will not be positive roi... found some around 200$ perfectly that i swap the s1' with s3 and use same psu's

It get's addictive.  I cannot vouch for prisma just because I have not used one.  The S3 is a solid machine.  You do have to order in packs of 2 (if you order direct) so you will be using like 880 or so I think off top of my head.   I think the C1 saves a little electricity, but there are extra costs with watercooling. (for example from this point on I will have backup pumps)

Poor noob here but willing to rise up a bit
That's a lot, 850w, was thinking more of a 750w. Maybe, in the future,  will by one or two units to make hot water for house usage!

Philipmama1957 u got a nice stash for yourself! i can get a prisma too but i prefer the s3, looks to me more reliable!

I have 2 and both are down.  The draw around 830-840 each I believe at wall. With cold ambient for me they were really quiet when working.  (I cant check again because of dead pumps).

Building up I have been trying to go efficient as possible.  My worst one at this point is 1 of the original dragons.  It is still profitable, but less so with lower efficiency then others.

With decent priced electricity, a good amount of it still to expand, I am always looking to expand watching prices.   I got lucky with being on a farm so was set up for a good amount of electricity.  Have security system and cameras i can look at remotely, so I'm pretty happy with my setup right now.

2-4% and price went over 425 usd.   really surprised me.  still 5 days to go  may jump back over 5%



I have 8 s-'3's   clocked about 440 each = 3520gh

I have 1 asicminer prisma running 1420gh

just under 5th  power about 4kwatts    this is an easy number for me  if I go past that it is more work.   I could do 2-4 more s-3's then I would be done.

I have a few s-3's in other locations

I have 19-21 coins. 

 Been fun so far.

i will have at least 5.3th next week and i look at ~9th total. how much does the c1 sucks out of mains?
diff up with the price rising?

Looking good! My goal is to reach 10T in house.   Once my C2's are back alive I will be closer.

Numbers are looking pretty good today.  I am up to 5th in house.  I sold off 1 btc .  Still holding most of them.

BTC/USD: 428.95

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty = (+4.27%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,293,340,723 (+4.27%)
Adjust time:   After 803 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?):   277,356,294 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.7 minutes
Updated:   7:15 (7.2 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ (+2.07%)

Blocks   329822
Total BTC   13.496M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   40425638626 in 802 blks
 
Network total   267234.875 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.66 / 637 s

no  instead of coins alone   you just do some  risk leveling.  buy btc and buy miners.  

I purchased s-3s'  and I purchased btc coins.  I will profit on both now.  

  In fact the s-3's I purchased last week are selling at a premium on ebay.  I have multiple options   while you have coins alone.  

This is why I am very serious about coins. I do appreciate your input minus curses and insults.

The current price rise shows exactly why mining is a terrible investment for avg Joe.

Buying miner is like spent your BTC at low price while hoping to have ROI on those BTCs. You might be able to get those BTCs back + 10% in profits. Thats very unlikely as network difficulty will rise and rise ( not to mention the psychology effect of BTC price going up)


I spent the same amount on mining on buying BTC, i'm already making over 10% in profit. As the price going i'm not losing any opportunity to cash out or diverse my investment. I also dont have to spend time managing my tiny mining operation.


Mining has become a marginal incentives of BTC ecosystem, which is exactly what i expected. Its only for large scale with best electrical rate.

It looks nice.  We knew it was to low for a while, but it stuck there.  Now is the fun part of seeing how high we can go.  Even if it ends where it is now or goes down a little I extremely happy just to see a jump.

I am most definitely not a bitcoin optimist but...

This price rise is almost exactly mirroring last November's run-up to $1,100. 

I agree.  Thank you btw for doing these threads.  I enjoy seeing multiple sources and difficulty.   As a miner and observer it is something that has my eye.  Thanks again.

To go up so much in a little time shows why I enjoy bitcoin.  We knew it was low but cannot predict exact time it goes up. Watching the ride to 420's from a price much lower a day ago is a fun ride.   

Also a nice reward for those who are holding coins.  Not to mention miners, this will help out quite a few out there.  Hopefully it goes up even more but who knows.

 With the price pushing 400

diff at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   =   (+5.20 %)  

diff at http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ = (+3.03%)



 Things are not as  terrible   as  many say.  a steady 4%  would be very nice

I enjoy it.  I don't deny it.  Your attempt at trolling me about my watercooling parts wont work .  I have ordered parts to get by incase RMA does not come.  I have been here a long time.  I remember during GPU days with 8500 watts of them RMA was a common thing, i'm not new to it.   Its not the first or last thing i will RMA.

Yes I see sales here.  Part of this site is built around sales.  I do split it into two groups though.  Hobby miners and professional miners.  I myself am a hobby miner.  Even with cheap electricity and lots of power, I won't be building a few hundred thousand dollar center.   I have lots of room for new miners, I'm sure I will buy more again Its a hobby I enjoy.  Cheap electricity and lots of electricity and space allows me to do it.

I would argue a lot of the difficulty rise you cannot see as the professional centers really have no reason to announce it unless they are like KNC and seek publicity.  If you have never heard their PR firm speak at a conference you really should, I'm willing to bet they fired the firm by now but he was funny to listen to.  The sales you see on the forum are in no way the one controlling factor in difficulty increase.

And almost a funny troll on water cooling next time just add more substance to it.  I have already ordered higher quality parts while i wait on replacements.  

For example on more substance:

Notlist3d's C1 is the prefect noise suppression miner so quiet you cant hear it.

Notlist3d's miner went so green it no longer uses electricity.

And I'm sure you can top those if you try .  Also what is your electricity price? I have a theory that people who act like you 3/4 of time have higher priced electricity.

i know .... based on this forums, i still see it going up. Hardware being bought by retards left and right, dont you see?

Good luck with your cheap watercooling parts btw  

7 being high point and going down is at least better then we started at.  Hope it goes down more, but who knows at this point.

okay midway in the diff jump about 1051 done and 1065 left and we are merging the two predictions kind of what usually happens each jump.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   = (+7.54%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,589,932,258 (+7.54%)
Adjust time:   After 1065 Blocks, About 7.2 days
Hashrate(?):   290,453,836 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   9:15 (4.0 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   = (+ 4.23%)

Blocks   329558
Total BTC   13.489M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   41282578576 in 1066 blks
 
Network total   279044.967 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.91 / 610 s

This is a spec thread  all guesses!


Growth has averaged about 9.2% Since June 29th 2014.   If we get to 500 usd we will stay above 12% for a while, but not that long.

To me this estimate below shows ideal case for an asic builder making a farm for his company.

at 268 a coin not a smart move - better off trying to sell more then build farms




at 368 a coin looks okay -better off with a 50- 50 mix of sales and farms



at 500 building farms looks pretty good.








 I just sold .5 btc for a 20 usd profit. But I am holding more coins hoping for larger numbers.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  =     + 8.53%

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,982,230,878 (+8.53%)
Adjust time:   After 1218 Blocks, About 8.2 days
Hashrate(?):   292,719,992 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.1 minutes
Updated:   7:35 (4.5 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   = + 3.62%


Blocks   329406
Total BTC   13.485M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   41039903754 in 1218 blks
 
Network total   302738.079 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.41 / 562 s

Coins are now over 370 usd.  This will cause faster growth. What fiat price do you think make growth go back over 10% for many jumps?

yeah you get one of them at most.

in the mean time

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


dropped a bit to (+9.61%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,410,637,762 (+9.61%)
Adjust time:   After 1499 Blocks, About 10.2 days
Hashrate(?):   285,704,897 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   11:5 (4.6 minutes ago

and

 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

jumped up to 2.16%

Blocks   329125
Total BTC   13.478M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   40460574173 in 1499 blks
 
Network total   300775.267 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.37 / 566 s

so as usual the two websites are merging towards each others predications.

coins are around 340 usd

at 340 usd an s-3 goes into the red vs power at a diff of 93000m and 10 cent power.  

at 10% growth about 129 days

at 5% an s-3 would go into the red vs power at 240 days.

insurance will work first time, the second...

yeah and here is what I think:


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9473670


they are sweating the load   as to the possibility of sabotage .


 Huge easy target location is known to many in a 'free' country.

a big incentive to do a meltdown.  

hell knc may insure their center and not give a shit if they are attacked.

In fact makes for a great move.  build it out then  hash for 20-40 days  let it burn  down.  'insurance job'.

40 days hashing at  40-50 ph and then poof.

this is a spec thread so I toss out many speculations

I  still say slow build out is the way to go.

http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2014/11/06/knc-miner-to-build-another-20mw-for-bitcoin-mining-in-sweden/

    I liked keeping the threads separated by the actual diff time period.
 Now that I decided to moderate I may keep one long thread. I actually don't mind some of seriouscoin's info and ideas just got tired of the curses and insults. So far he has been okay on this thread.


current diff numbers are.

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   +.3%

Blocks   329013
Total BTC   13.475M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   39727601164 in 1611 blks
 
Network total   270632.001 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.73 / 629 s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.46%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,747,809,881
Adjust time:   After 1611 Blocks, About 10.9 days
Hashrate(?):   289,187,993 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.2 minutes
Updated:   17:0 (1.9 minutes ago)

Why are you making new threads? Don't you like one single master thread?

back to topic:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  {+ 10.56% }

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,786,426,037 (+10.56%)
Adjust time:   After 1750 Blocks, About 11.8 days
Hashrate(?):   291,615,739 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   18:45 (2.2 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/    [+ .15%]

Blocks   328873
Total BTC   13.472M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   39666434386 in 1751 blks
 
Network total   292861.092 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.20 / 581 s


 1751 blocks to go.

The reason of taking offline would be problems in each one.  There is impressive picture in another forum of building during fire.   

With these being in there it would be hard to find any that were not touched by the fire.   I have a feeling since entire building went there is a good chance components burnt aswell in each.

I am not entirely sure what happened here, but I don't see any real reason why they would have to take all these miners offline. I would think they would surely have some kind of backup facility these miners could be moved to, as it appears that only the "shelves" collapsed and the miners appear to be in good condition

fire happened on 14 of october... and we have seen no negative difficulty on 23october...

The burnt out mine is interesting.  I am looking on the sp30 thread for a confirm.

thanks to seriouscoin  there is a confirm on the sp30 thread.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9450123


pre-fire

http://storage.googleapis.com/spond_public/images/cowboyminer%20wall%20of%20SP30.jpg


and a confirm from sp-tech

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9451562


Which all goes back to the why building out like mad with btc in the 300-350 range is extra risky.

I often wonder if a simple envelope with cash to the right workers in the right dc's and or farm's will become the best way to compete dc vs dc.  Well more coins for the ones that do not have any gear at that center.  I would  think more security for DCs and or farms.  Just think if that was 6-8ph 3 or 4 well placed fires and the btc world would have a radical change.  There is speculation it was arson or that arson has not been ruled out. 




@ seriouscoin thanks for the photo

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9451830

from link right above

I wrote it before - source of the fire is yet unknown.
Arson wasn't ruled out. AFAIK, no insurance.
It was in Thai news: http://www.thairath.co.th/content/456629

Sad story, good people. Very bad luck with mining. It's not the first mishap.
I've visited their facility when they had only SP10 and Dragons. I was impressed.

Guy

Rates dropped on bitcoinwisdom to 11.51 % and are negative on bitcoincharts. Still a lot of time to go.

 great photo .  and still yet more reason for mining expansion to be in the slower more deliberate state is has been in since june of 2014.

When coins were 1k and diff was tiny(compared to now) a disaster like the one above was easier to overcome.

 now a 5mw plant getting smoked is a costly loss.

Seriouscoin I wondered if you have more info on this fire.  I am sure others want to know.


I found this thread :

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/nearly-burned-down-my-home-due-to-mining-farm-tips-on-how-to-stay-safe-517976

this user claims it is his gear:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/cowboyminer-319455

But no real proof of what the gear really is .  1400+  sp30's using up to 5mw  mining 7ph is the claim more or less.

Just no hard facts.  More then 4 million usd retail if true.

~8ph? nice! that's love of money! if it was true love i was carbonised on top of them!

big farms care less of the difficulty, they care only of theyr piece of pie! they know that the price will be back up tomorow even if they sell 1000btc today! look at the 30k dump and the price rise fter that!
they give a shit about small time miners! look at knc, they were like 4% of the network 2weeks ago. now is 8% from a larger network!

maybe they need to sell only 10% of the mined btc for maintenance, electricity& the rest of dayly/monthly costs...

Hey OP, I got an answer as to why the difficulty was slowed down last jump:





It was said to be 5MW facility......



I guess that makes you.... wrong again huh? Oh wait.... you're never wrong. Infact you should predict next difficulty jump to be 0-30%. You can never be wrong then.

yes this is a rare case two wrongs making a right.

Bitcoinwisdom has problem on opposite side, they do use recent hashrate to predict difficulty but have wrong algo which doesn't count in NEW difficulty level, so at each start of new difficulty they predict difficulty change at approximately same level as was previous one. As the time goes on, they slowly slide down to real numbers.
So basically you're right averaging bitcoinwisdom and bitcoinchart, but both use wrong algo, each from opposite side

I do it intentionally as it is a pure current rate based on now.  I use bitcoinwisdom because they try to combine past data with current.

If you add my 2 numbers .2 and 12.8 you get 13 take the average you get 6.5  which is just about the same as 7%.  

Nextdifficulty.com uses my method with a small variation.  They weight the current number more.

@ seriouscoin

 I actually like some of your posts and I have found some good info in them .  but the cursing and insults to many people on the site can get over the top.

@ mavericklm   while I don't think so If bitfury builds a .2 watt miner  the network has more to grow.  if they can build the so called .1 watt miner after that the network will grow more.   their ability to make .1 to .2 watt miners cheaply will cause a lot of growth.  of course no proof yet.

@ notlist3d  thanks.  the range  is always large if the last growth was high.

current numbers

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   328687
Total BTC   13.467M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   39603518715 in 1937 blks
 
Network total   303747.263 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.55 / 550 s

This is negative growth at the moment about  - .00025 %

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   44,527,742,075 (+12.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1937 Blocks, About 12.8 days
Hashrate(?):   291,391,703 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.9 minutes
Updated:   10:25 (4.3 minutes ago)


they have 12.43% plus rate

below are the last 10 jumps from June 29 to Nov 5  this is 129 days  and represents the end of the s-1 and the beginning of the s-3 from antminer.

or the end of the 2 watt miner and the beginning of the .8 watt miner.  This was the last big drop for power and it did truly start slower growth in diff.



Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s



this article was brought up in my last thread by xstr8guy

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140915005202/en/BitFury-Announces-Technology-Roadmap-Sustained-Industry-Leadership#.VFpDpaUeauf

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9439564

If they do produce these miners  there will be more growth , but the timeline will be slower then the fourth quarter of JAN for the .2 watt gear.

and slower  then June 30th 2015 for the < .1 watt gear.

All these asic builders have to watch out for zen/gaw miners  hashcoin launch .  This launch is a direct attack at BTC and zen/gaw has a lot of money behind them.

I am thinking if it does well BTC will suffer in price a lot.

https://hashcoin.com/

I have 3 threads on zen

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=698679.0;all
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/my-pool-experience-with-cloud-zenminer-dot-com-new-thread-old-was-locked-743152
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8905466

I have under  500 usd invested with them at the moment.

https://hashtalk.org/

but they are a hustling company with a lot of wall street money and venture capital. (Cantor Fitzgerald  IIRC)   

 They could hurt BTC if they launch correctly.  If so bitfury would have sunk a shitload of money into .2 watt gear   for nothing.
My guess is all the asic guys are going to hold off on BTC mining growth for their data centers.

If hashcoin is a bust they will then point the .2 watt gear at the btc network.  so the .2 watt storm if it can really happen will be late winter of 2015 say feb 2015 not dec 2014.

This is  a spec thread in the spec section have fun with it.

10 to 15%
ac cooling is shut down and new miners are added!

I enjoy reading your difficulty threads.  Anything to get a insight I'm all for.   I wish it was a closer range, seems like very large range this week compared to past.

First thing you should do is stop using bitcoincharts.com as prediction source, as they are unable to count in hashrate which is 'younger' than 2016 blocks and always start at 0%. If we accept that last 1008 blocks hashing speed can be used to predict next difficulty, then further adjusting is necessary by amount shown by arrow in the picture below ( the distance between blue line and red difficulty line)- currently about 7% when using conservative estimate from nextdifficulty.com.

Might as well says 0.1% - 20% to make yourself looks like a genius.

 

 diff ended with under 2%

I lock thread with end of diff new thread here


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=864274.new#new

First off thanks to seriouscoin this is self modded.

with 2111 blocks to next jump the two sites I use are at .2% and

12.8 %

  http://www.bitcoincharts.com


Blocks   328613
Total BTC   13.465M
 
Difficulty   39603666252
Estimated   39685889293 in 2011 blks
 
Network total   316390.077 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.33 / 491 s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty:   44,673,779,645 (+12.80%)
Adjust time:   After 2011 Blocks, About 13.1 days
Hashrate(?):   296,890,017 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.3 minutes
Updated:   22:10 (4.1 minutes ago)

I mark June 29th 2014 as the third stage of asic development

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s


Growth has been about 9% from June 29th to Nov.  This date is used because it marks the end of the s-1 sales and the s-3 sales started taking off.   power improved from 2 watts to .8 watts.
     Remember this is a spec thread so you can feel free to guess anything I don't mind.  


@ seriouscoin feel free to post