Topic: New Historical Profitability Calculator for Bitcoin Miners (Read 509 times)

https://ibb.co/CVcPN7s

Shipped improved financial metrics:
- Clear cost structure breakdown (TCO split into Electricity vs Hardware costs)
- Key profitability and operational metrics for selected selling strategy
- Note: Avg. BTC Production Cost stays constant across strategies as it depends on formula: costs fixed in $ / mining volume (which is BTC)

I would say here that the problem should not be created. The profit in mining can be calculated approximately, but you need to take into account the price at which you will sell the coins.
And so I think that as long as the miner has good prices for electricity, he will mine and not complicate his business with complex calculations

Mining can seem complex, I get it... but I would not overcomplicate the task. Honestly, a restaurant's economics with so many human variables is more complex than mining. The btc mining farms industry isn't about reaching data center perfection standard — it’s about practical solutions. With AI models eating the grid we have to automate, reducing the total cost of ownership to minimum. Anyway, here at this beta stage I am focusing  on some basic principles and building what users tell me to add, so it keeps improving. Will see. It's easy to overthink the challenges.

I also know the experience of small miners who have several megawatts of capacity. So they don't have all asics mining 24/7. Some asics are on testing, some are under warranty and non-warranty repair, some work with low mining parameters due to manufacturer's defect, but the warranty is over.
And the situation is changing every day, new data centres with 50-100 megawatts are being opened.
That's why I don't understand how you will make a perfect calculator if it is impossible to do it.
The most powerful computing centres in the world are trying to predict the weather, they have a huge database, but you can look at the weather forecast for 2-3 days ahead and then compare the results.

You're right that a few large operations managed to install monitoring system (at least they got that right finally). The calculator, even at this beta stage, can be useful in specific cases like calculating downtime/opportunity loss/missed. And I already talked to some users who used it to get precise, verifiable numbers in such a case.

Also not just mining farms—it’s a profitability estimator for cases like opportunity loss from curtailed wind energy for example: in 2023, Northern Ireland had to curtail 539 GWh of wind energy. To put that into perspective you can translate it using the calculator into 60MW of unutilised capacity or 534 BTC mined on s9... on that point have an idea to have a real-time conversion of curtailment data (if i find a grid which is streaming such data)

I don't understand what the calculator has to offer the big miners.  Usually big miners have the most accurate profit data, and their data takes into account equipment breakdowns, power outages, and all other nuances that no calculator uses yet.

Shipped Models Details to allow users to look through specs of models in a separate dialog window: th/s, Watt, Efficiency, release date and select the model.

Thanks, I'll reach out to philipma1957. From all the calculators I've seen, BRAIINS is the only one that offers a 'historical mode,' but I question their math, and there's no way to verify their methodology (I contacted them through their feedback form but never received a response).

The end goal is to target larger miners. I just don’t have the bandwidth for altcoins for now, unless someone is interested in contributing with alt support. I appreciate your feedback regardless. Real data is coming soon—hopefully

I have already written to you how I see the ideal calculator, but you can also ask other miners and be sure to ask philipma1957.

Why should miners pay for something they can get for free?
https://www.hashrate.no/asics

Asics for Bitcoin are mainly bought by industrial miners. And for home use, they usually buy ASICs for altcoins.
If you do not want to add these ASICs, you will lose a lot of traffic.

Industrial miners mainly use their real data and not calculators.

In my opinion, such sites should earn money from affiliate programs and advertising, there will be very few clients for paid services.

By "add a lot of models," do you mean more ASIC types? We already cover all SHA-256 units, including 11 different S9 variants. Expanding into other algorithms isn’t on the radar yet.

Or do you mean allowing users to select multiple models (not just one) for aggregated analysis? That’s something we’re considering as a paid feature.

Competition isn’t our focus right now. Our tool is backward-looking, using exact historical data, while others focus on snapshots or projections—different use cases.

Your idea to sort miners by BTC revenue for a selected period (instead of alphabetically) is definitely achievable - thinking of the best way to implement that.

If you want to compete with other calculators, you will have to add a lot of models. Some miners still use S9 asics.

I like these 2 interfaces. Well there are 2 things missing here Estimated ROI and MSRP.

https://miningnow.com/latest-asic-miner-list/
https://www.asicminervalue.com/

If they added that, these would be the perfect calculators. Then I would be able to see the fastest paying off asics from the huge amount of offers.

thanks for adding the tool to the list!
Following your advise, for lazy miners I have just added all 149 models SHA-256 (sourced from here: https://www.asicminervalue.com/) - I will optimise the code to make fetching faster.
I really appreciate your input!

If you make this service for yourself and share it with other users, that's fine. But if you want to compete with other services, you need to add more models. Miners are very lazy, they don't like complex solutions.

I've added your calculator to the list
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63501742

🚀 Another two features rolled out for setting section:
a) dynamically filters ASIC models based on their release date! 🎉
b) OTHER model type

Now, when you set your Start Date, only ASICs released before or on that date will appear. This keeps the calculator realistic by showing only available hardware. "OTHER" option, so you can set any hash rate and wattage you prefer.

Try it out!

Now export data is available with ALL Formulas inside!

+ for BTC revenue calculation replaced 2^32 with more "kosher" 2^48/65535.

Enjoy your spreadsheets folks and lmk where we might have screwed up on math!

Shipped another feature: share results. After OSS is released, will try to improve it - making the URL shorter.

https://i.ibb.co/4MYhsLm/image.png

We found the reason. Throttling from AWS. Now we got higher quotas from AWS to accommodate a higher number of requests per sec. Should work fine now.
Thank you for pointing at this issue first!

Shipped Export data (as excel file). Without formulas for now. Check it out.

I just tried it again and it seems the error happened when i set end date very close with today's date.

this might be when you select date ranges where we have no data behind (too early or in the future). Just discussed with our FE dev on that: by the end of this week we should push some updates with "limits" to mining start/end dates with a clear note.

Next time if error appears could you pls send a screenshot of your input section?

Thank you for your feedback! Yeah, buying BTC often outperforms mining over the long term, which is exactly why we incuded our mine vs buy ratio. It would be fascinating to integrate historical unit-costs data and run scenario analyses to explore this further. ASIC pricing is a complex topic with many variables influencing it beyond just BTC volatility. These variables include inventory levels, tech advancements, supplier competition, opex. Each of these factors can impact the fair pricing of hardware. One juicy feature would be to come up with "a fair ASIC price" indicator in our calculator somehow. The starting point is ofc mine vs buy.


The next feature release is export data - which should be shipped this week normally (jumping on our sprint call with the team now to follow up on that).

Stay tuned for updates!

Thank you! The "closing" daily data is at 00:00 UTC. Indeed, you have noticed a limitation: it currently only uses daily data. Consequently, during the bi-weekly difficulty changes, our calculator considers only one difficulty level, leading to slightly inaccurate BTC revenue estimates for those days. Typically, as difficulty increases, the calculated accumulated revenue over the long term is slightly lower than in reality. To address this, we would need more granular data, which would increase costs due to the need for additional storage and processing. For now, we accept this immaterial discrepancy.


Correct. adding to the log.

Based on memory, this is probably most detailed historical mining calculator i've tried. I also like "Cost-Benefit Analysis" section which could prove that simply buying Bitcoin isn't always most profitable option. Although when i tried it, the chart sometimes failed to updated. When i open browser console, i see few message like this.

NICE!! I have always wanted to see a historical calculator, the main purpose is to prove that in the vast majority of cases buying BTC outperforms mining, I did run my own numbers a few times and I have concluded that in the long run, mining hardly beats HODLing unless you enter and exit at the perfect times, but the amount of data I had at hand was too small to reach to a definite conclusion that could be convincing enough to anyone, obviously, this being a closed-source we can't tell if the numbers are accurate, hope to see you open source this in the near future.

Keep up the good work.

I'm wondering if the network difficulty that's part of the equation is based on each difficulty adjustment or if it's based on the average difficulty on each day.
^{- I do know due to this happening roughly every two weeks, there's not going to be a huge difference, but it'd be more accurate if it's the latter one.}

I believe pool fees are missing from the equation.

Product improvement log:

1. MODEL input: based on the selected period suggest the list of miners arranged by their profitability, letting user select one they wish. easy Shipped 🚀
1.1. Integrate model release dates to ensure historical precision. easy. Shipped🚀
1.2. OTHER type. Shipped🚀
1.3. Added all 149 models SHA-256 to choose from Shipped 🚀
1.4. Table with model specs + Efficiency + filtering/re-arranging Shipped 🚀

2. New button:
(a) Export data (as excel file). without formulas - Shipped🚀. With formulas - hard Shipped🚀.
(b) Share Results - Shipped🚀. Make URL shorter - later.
(c) Start - End date input logic - autocorrecting input when no data behind + helpful UX note. Shipped🚀

3. Consider allowing user picking several different models aggregating revenues as total. This may expand inputs part. hard.

4. Add alt-coin PoW models to the database. easy

5. Energy Cost input: add options (fixed rate/profit share/fixed rate with profit share). hard

6. New Input: % for HODLING, ie. BTC is sold in full vs sold just to cover OPEX => brings unrealised gains into financial results calculations. easy. UX/UI advanced

7. New Logic: current profit per day. This may diminish the idea that calculator is "historical". Find a way to align this feature.

8. New section: Comprehensive Asset Management Report. Feed historical data into an LLM with a structured prompt to generate a comprehensive report, including earnings, strategies, and performance analysis. hard

9. Advanced Input:
9.1. Include advanced inputs for overclocking and consumption settings. easy.
9.2. additional expenses per month. easy
9.3. pool % to the cost. easy

You heard me right. Miners want to see the rating of profitable models and the current profit per day, taking into account their electricity price. That's the most important thing. On the additional page you can add more settings, but I told you the most important thing.
The payback is easier for miners to calculate by themselves on a regular calculator, because there are always additional spending every month.
You can also add this feature to the calculator.

Thank you for those suggestions!

We would need  to implement model release dates first, to be historically precise. It should be easy to implement. The question is why do you want this feature and how UI to look like? you want to see the most/least profitable models for selected mining period, then pick the one you are interested in for more insights, right?

Roger. in our pipeline. just need to get correct specs for those settings. Also utilization % rates are the same category of accuracy improvement (will go into “advanced” inputs).
you can adjust hashrate and wattage manually already though.

Consider a more user-friendly interface so that the profit for all models is available on the first page for comparison.
https://www.asicminervalue.com/
And then make it possible to more accurately configure each ASIC, taking into account overclocking and consumption. This function is perfectly implemented and add the payback period in days and months

Hello Bitcoin Talk Community,

We're excited to share our Advanced Profitability Calculator, designed to assist BTC miners in evaluating their operations and maximizing efficiency using accurate historical Bitcoin data. Whether you want to calculate opportunity costs during downtimes or compare different HODLing strategies, our tool provides practical insights.

We plan to open-source the calculator, allowing everyone to use, integrate, and build upon it. Try it out and share your feedback!

Watch the Demo: https://youtu.be/QA1tQTc70fU?feature=shared and Try the Calculator: https://aidala.uk/dashboard

We would love to hear from you.

Best regards,
The Aidala Team https://aidala.uk/