I just had the idea for a new metric to possibly measure whether Bitcoin is currently under- oder overvalued.
If we take the current market capitalization, about $250,000,000, and divide that by the estimated number of Bitcoin users, let's say 100,000 (a low estimate IMHO), then we get the average value (in $) held per user.
This would be then about $2500 per person.
We can compare that number to other currencies to get a rough feeling for its value.
If Bitcoin were greatly overvalued at the moment then that number should be much higher than, for example, the average amount of Dollars a person holds.
Let's calculate:
The current M2 money supply for US$ is 10.5 trillion.
Let's say there are about 1 billion regular users of US$ worldwide (which is a lot more than the population of the countries that use US$).
Then that would be $10,500 per person, which is a lot more than what we get for Bitcoin.
Another example, using the Euro:
The current M1 money supply for Euro is about 5 trillion (M1/M2 have different meanings here).
Let's say there are about 500 million Euros users (less internationally used than US$).
That makes 10,000 Euros per person, so about $13,000 per person.
So you could say that there is room for the Bitcoin price to even go up 4x it's current value, so about 100$!!!
