Topic: New opinion of PlanB (Read 549 times)

Bitcoin will ensure its long-term viability when used as an asset or currency. Many people say various baseless things about Bitcoin which to a real Bitcoin user seem completely baseless. Bitcoin price predictions are full of uncertainty. Because after Bitcoin halving its performance will increase. Bitcoin may go from $100k to $150k in the next bull run which will change the diversification view.

It's a broken model created from a flawed assumption. There will be people who would debate against it, but - An asset's price doesn't automatically increase simply because its supply is limited, and that its emission halves every four years.

It increases in value because of demand, real demand and/or demand as a consequence of trading, investment-seeking/prospecting.

I think PlanB was a great follow for a long time but be was convinced & dead set on over $100,000 in the last bull market. He has made loads of excuses why his model(s) is still valid but I don’t think he is a credible source to reliably follow for the upcoming bull market. I mean his S2F chart is absolutely broken, we have been under his base case for ages.

Yes, the end of the year is still too far away, but it won't feel very long. Investors know that the price of bitcoin will rise, but unfortunately, they will not know when the price will reach $50k, whether it will happen this month or in the following months.
But they are still preparing for another high price and are already buying and holding their bitcoins.
Moreover, there will be a halving moment coming soon. Even though many things will happen during the halving, it will not worry investors, especially strong-armed investors.
They will continue to hold bitcoin firmly until the price reaches the target selling price, and then they will sell their bitcoin.

Indeed, the gap between the prediction of the current Bitcoin's value in the market is huge as you would need some super big event or news that can occur in the following months. even whales sure would take advantage if there's something that could influence Bitcoin's behavior. Many people are already waiting for Bitcoin to reach even for $50k value as they would sell some of their holdings cause profit is still profit, I don't know if that amount of prediction is exaggerated, well people are free to have their speculation in Bitcoin but always remember that it is still involved volatility and there's no guarantee that it would have the same outcome.

Even still many people think that Bitcoin is a scam coin so don't expect positive comment all of those people. In 2015, 2019 and 2024 those people have been proven wrong.
But i don't want to hope Bitcoin will hit $532K after 2024 halving, It seems 13 times higher from the current price I think it's not realistic.

The end of 2024 is too far for the current price of BTC to rise even higher by then. Investors know that the price is going to get up to $50k before this month ends or maybe after the halving, but am sure a lot is going to happen just when the halving will occur.
Anyone who buys and HoDL BTC now pending the start of or end of halving, will make two choices which will be to withdraw some during the halving or DCA during same halving.

The flaw in PlanB's theory is his presumption that merely because Bitcoin has a halving every four years, then the price must increase by some percentage without considering the market demand for Bitcoin. There are many altcoins that have their own halvings but they never follow PlanB's graph according to his hypthosesis.

If he was right, then all coins with inflation halvings every four years should follow the same trajectory like Bitcoin.

That is possible when @OP said that the S2F model predicts a bitcoin price of $532k after the halving in 2024. But the problem is that to reach beyond $100k, there must be an extraordinary driving force that can make the price immediately increase very high.
Meanwhile, the price is still at the current price range and is still going up and down and there are no signs of it going up, let alone immediately increasing beyond $50 thousand or even straight up to $70 thousand.
But when that happens, many bitcoin investors who have a lot of bitcoin will sell some but not all of the bitcoin and take the profit.
We will see many people or investors who will instantly become millionaires, which will be life-changing for them and us.
So let's just wait and see what will happen after this halving until the end of 2024.

You’ll eventually think of selling if you think of short term term profits. But we all know the more we hold for longer years, the bigger the profits we will gain so I think buying and hodling are still the keys. People may have criticized bitcoin’s high volatility but because of that, even our craziest and the most impossible predictions turn out into reality so instead of criticizing it negatively, it turns out to be a big opportunity for us in the crypto market.

Crypto experts and influencers may have come up with various price predictions and it’s also how they envision bitcoin price in the future. But it never guarantees that those will most likely what bitcoin will be. Bitcoin is certainly mysterious and unpredictable, and we’ll only know if it’s really capable to reach those prices when we’ll get there eventually.

No one can predict accurately but all of us are only guessing here. There are times that we can hit our guess correctly, but still I won't consider that as a skill. For the next bull season, everyone only expects $100k. There is now more chance that it will hit because there are a lot of positive things that occur over the 2 years course of Bitcoin run. But if not, we may end up with $80k something (which is still great). Each new bull run is always better than the previous one. And this is why we have this all-time high term.

As for $500k, last time there are several posts and some claims to come from the so-called experts, which states that the said value will occur in 2030 or later dates/year. Maybe that was possible since 2030 is a bit far from 2024.

I don't know for you, but for me missing the final target by 30+% is a lot. I have seen way more accurate predictions without using his model, which is nice if you want to play with it but I would never take it seriously. And if he's saying $500k and it reaches $300k (which I don't think it'll happen), would you say that that at the end it was pretty accurate? $200k of difference, is that accurate?

Sometimes I also find it very difficult to believe that one day Bitcoin will reach 300k or 500k. But I also don't dare say that it is impossible. Because if I look at the history of the initial price of Bitcoin and then compare it with the current price then it seems impossible. But this seemingly impossible thing has now happened.

So it's possible that even after the halving, things that were considered crazy and impossible will actually come true. Well, all bitcoin holders believe that the future of bitcoin will indeed continue to bring profits if held in the long term.

Please take a look at this model.
It has 3 components:

1) Power Law in time 2) sinusoidal oscillations with period 4 years (the first bubble is not modeled because probably due to MtGox and it is not associated with halvings) 3) exponential decay of the peaks over time.

The model does a very good job of following closely the bottoms (almost perfectly) and it can model most of the behavior of the price during the bubbles. The next bubble top should be close to $200K but it depends if we see a continuation of the decay we observed in previous cycles.

I extrapolated the model up to 2033 when the prediction is that BTC will reach 1 M.

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746235708959060220/photo/1

Plan B has been wrong so many time - It's no even funny. The NPC t hat follow him deserve the capital de allocation they get.

Because every time someone says that Bitcoin is dead, Bitcoin becomes more and more alive, and that's what I noticed, and for sure, the person who said that also knew that. I just don't really know what the purpose is or why they say that.

When you bought Bitcoin for around 400$, how many bitcoins were bought at that time in 2015? At that time, because I was new to crypto, I even borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, but no one gave me a loan at that time either. If you had money at that time and you bought at least 2 or 3 bitcoins and you held it until now, for sure the size of your income.

Investors who have been investing in Bitcoin for a long time will definitely not focus too much on any speculation other than focusing on the best news and moments in the crypto space that can really have an effect on Bitcoin. Because those who are used to any conditions when investing, of course will not easily panic with lots of speculation from other people, but the investor will just continue to carry out his plan according to what he wants while investing. And regarding the skyrocketing price and achieving a new ATH on Bitcoin, that is another plus that can be felt by investors who are used to responding to all conditions quite wisely.

$500k for 2024-25 bull run? Not possible. The best Bitcoin will go is to touch $200k and my realistic goal (which I have already posted many times) is $179k.
If someone bought the Bitcoin at the $17k price, he or she will be easily able to make a 10x on their actual cost without worrying about any shitcoin etc.
Easiest bet of my Life I would say

So, his prediction now is $524k. Not bad, some even say a million and more after several years. The S2F model again is back and I think that he just predicted the wrong time for $100k.

Although it didn't reached that moment, these are predictions and like just some sort of motivation on how high it can be and it's still a hit or miss.

Anyway, with or without it, I'm looking forward to the future and going to HODL.

Like how can people be too dependent on speculations, there's never a time the price of Bitcoin will just skyrocket to it's ATH overnight as it takes gradual process for it to attain a speculated ATH but not withstanding, Investors needs not to be too focused on speculations. Bitcoin over the years, have maintained it's volatility and of which we have observed it's price movement for sometime now and it is expected that the price will skyrocket soon, so it will be nice to see Bitcoin reach its speculated ATH but we shouldn't be too desperate about it.

It was clear that the ETF was a sell the news event. If you look at the return on investment for BTC and all bitcoin proxies in 2023, you would see that the ETF hype has been frontrun for months, resulting in a bubble that will at least burst forming a local top. 30k is not out of the table, even 25k in some panic wick. Once euphoria cools down then you can start thinking about the real bull run where FOMO will kick in and you will see Bitcoin on TV every day again. This time it will not be a quick sell off on mainstream arrival, it will hang very high for a long time, until a recession or something else kicks in and panic ensues again. Always keep a bag of cash because you never know how high BTC can go but definitely how low as well.

The BTC Scale Law model (or power law model) is the true BTC price model that has been right for 15 years. It predicts a top of the cycle of 2x the nominal value of $125,000 (trendline value). So in a bullish scenario, we have $250,000. Actually, Plan B is cheating a bit and readjusting the parameters of his model to give $500,000, if he kept the same parameters in his original article the next top will be $1000,000. The Power Law model is more conservative and it accounts for the tapering off of the price with time.

Although his prediction of $100K in 2021 was not completely accurate, at least bitcoin reached $69K. That means if his prediction is $500k for the upcoming bull season then bitcoin could also reach $300k or more according to his model.

To be fair, when we think about the $500k goal, it's actually a very large and unlikely goal, but the future is something no one can predict. It may or may not happen, and I don't think we should jump to conclusions and be certain about it. Personally, I still believe that the upcoming bull season will be the biggest bull super cycle ever.

I don't give any credit to PlanB, he's model already failed several times and, despite the fact that I'm pretty bullish on bitcoin, especially for the next years, I really don't see how we could reach $500k in a few years, it's just too much. Anyway, if you think this is the right moment to sell bitcoin just do it. If I were you, I wouldn't, but if a tweet is enough for you to make sell then I guess it's ok.

Having knowledge about Bitcoin is an absolute requirement, so that we can know the characteristics of market movements, so that it is more convenient to know when is the right time to buy and sell it. it will be even easier to invest long term, of course we only need to buy bitcoin, especially now, which still has a big opportunity to increase, so we just have to save it until one day we can sell it with a double profit. Of course it seems easy to imagine, but after doing it we will understand the difficulties experienced

I spent a lot of time thinking why @100trillionUSD S2F model shows a power law relationship between S2F, as he defines it, and the market cap of BTC.
The graph he showed in his first Medium article is pretty convincing and there is a clear power law evident by simple inspection.

At the same time, his model doesn't seem to work well after the last bull market and it seems to deviate even more from the real price. What is going on?

I think when he plotted initially his chart of log10(market value) vs log10(S2F) he accidentally "rediscovered" the time power law.

S2F is not really driving the price of BTC, at least not in the mathematical formulation he envisioned. There is something more fundamental that drives the price consistently because the power law in time relationship is more granular and follows very closely the price during bear markets for example.  The underlying mechanism is related to scarcity but not exactly (maybe other factors have an additional role).

The reason why I think @100trillionUSD merely rediscovered the power law in time law is that one can approximate the S2F behavior with an exponential of time and if one rewrites this exponential as a Taylor expansion the leading power is the power of 2 up to recent times (higher powers start to be more dominant now explaining the deviation from the real data). If you only keep power up to 2 for a mathematical expression of S2F then we can see how @100trillionUSD formula price=A*S2F^3.2 can be rewritten as price=A*(a*t+b*t^2)^3.2 or price~C*t^6.4 that is very similar to the power law price~D*t^5.8.

So he didn't discover a new interesting relationship between price and S2F but his log-log chart revealed indirectly the power law in time (that was already discovered by me a few years before).

@100trillionUSD contribution is still great because he wanted to find a causal mechanism for BTC scaling properties and he focused on a quantity that seemed to make sense but it turns out that the price doesn't respond to S2F exactly as he predicted.

That is fine and he should not have all the hard time he got because this is how you do science anyway, you make a hypothesis and test it. His hypothesis seems in trouble right now and we will see how it plays in the next cycle but I think we have already signs his model deviates from the real price.

The power law in time still holds very well and there is no indication the model is becoming less precise, on the contrary, it is becoming more stable and statistically significant. For BTC holders what is scarce is time not owning BTC, time is running out every day for non-coiners and this reflects directly on the price.

The price of BTC is absolutely predictable

I made predictions since several years ago about the long-term trajectory of BTC and they turned out to be perfectly true. See here for example (5 years old post):
Here is what I wrote 5 years ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

Here is the updated model, basically the same identical model, so I can predict BTC price over the long term almost perfectly. The model catches all the bottoms and tells us when we are close to the tops.  

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18z04kp/15_years_of_btc_power_law/


The BTC Scaling Law model, which is 100x better than S2F model, and for some reason not well known, tells us that if the peak of the cycle is 2 years from now (middle of the cycle) the nominal value of BTC is $125,000 dollars.

The model is great in determining the bottoms but not perfect with the tops. But historically the tops are about 2x the nominal value at that time so we have about $250,000.
We have observed a diminishing return for the tops (also predictable) but it is only 3 data points so it may not be significant. Also, the ETF could push the price higher than $250,000.
So let me make a prediction and you can hold me to it:

Prediction based on the BTC Scaling Law:

Top of the 2024-2028 cycle in a range between $150,000 to $250,000.

If I'm wrong and it goes above $250,000 I will be happy anyway (the model still tells us it would be overbought so sell if you want to cash in and buy at the bottom again).

We will keep hearing contrary opinions about bitcoin, as long as we have not approached the halving, everyone will keep saying what they think straight up without having a second thoughts on them, well, it's high time we believe more about bitcoin now, even if we keep having more dips than we expected to see the market running bullish, Bitcoin is having no best time than now, if the interest is there and there's opportunity for an investment, we should do it without looking back before we get a new all time high.

It looks impossible we will see $500K in the next year, I won't put a big expectation. I'm expecting $100K we be achieved in the next year, hopefully $200K if ETFs do give a lot impact for people to not fear invest in Bitcoin.

We shouldn't forget PlanB was incorrect predicting the last ATH will hit $100K when the reality it only reached $69K.

Basically, predictions cannot be guaranteed to be correct or not when or looking at the accuracy of each prediction has things that cannot be calculated by logic, so someone will consider things that are wildly logical to be considered impossible, as is the case with bitcoin when the price you mentioned, even people who exchange bitcoin for two pizza loya do not have the thought that bitcoin will be this wide in scope.

I myself think the price to $250k is very heavy, but after seeing that bitcoin ETFs that are in big financial markets and can say that they will introduce bitcoin to a wider public it is likely that it will be achieved, but yes we can today hope and think more realistically, at $532k I will definitely sell some, but we will see what is the highest price that bitcoin can touch in this cycle.

In this kind of scenario, you can only trust yourself because you are the one who will gonna be successful if your hunch based on your own research about the crypto market is true. You cannot rely on their opinion because most of those kinds of people are just talking without knowing anything about it. Some of them are just blind followers of those who are hostile to bitcoins and they don't have anything good to say whether about the predictions of the price or the good future of bitcoins. therefore, be yourself when it comes to your investment make it solely from your own decision, and build some patience in yourself in order to be successful in your long-term holding of bitcoins.

Huh, if they were so accurate in the past, maybe it's not too much to hope that they'll be right once again. To be honest, my expectations for the upcoming bull market are a lot milder because I believe that each bull market sees the price increasing by a smaller percentage (for example, nearly 20x between 2013 and 2017, but just over 3x for the next bull run). Something over $100k would be great, and $532k sounds way over the top. But yeah, who knows, maybe it can get that high, that fast. In any case, Bitcoin is still a good investment, even if it doesn't bring such impressive profits like it used to.

I think that we have discussed many times in various discussions that it is not too realistic to expect that the price of Bitcoin will increase after the next halvings, as it was in the past. The last 2020 halving "produced" only x3.5 compared to the one before it ($20 -> $69k) and we have to wonder if the next one could cause a price increase of x12 compared to the current value?

Some quite wrongly believe that past events regarding the price can just be repeated, but we cannot consider it the same as raising the price by x10 from $100 to $1000 or doing the same today.

https://i.ibb.co/C6n28k8/Model-Valuation-A1.png


It is not. The price of BTC follows a very precise pattern over the long run. It has done this for exactly 15 years since day one.
It is a power law that is an amazing thing because Power Laws are very important for natural and man-made phenomena:

https://www.ted.com/talks/geoffrey_west_the_surprising_math_of_cities_and_corporations

Not sure why every Bitcoiners doesn't know or understand this. PlanB main contribution was to indicate the halving events create periodic bubbles or oscillations around the very predictable BTC growth pattern. These bubbles are also predictable now and the size of the oscillations also follows precise patterns (the bottoms are more predictable than the tops but we can still identify areas when BTC is overbought or oversold).
See here:

https://medium.com/quantonomy/btc-scaling-law-model-has-been-right-for-the-last-15-years-real-price-and-model-comparison-5dee5bb495f6

Dude if Bitcoin goes to 532k then this forum will have more money than most startups and OGs and anyone from pre-2021 will basically be rich.

But even this seems outlandish to me, I mean come on, we're just going to skip $100k? Maybe 532k is achievable after 2028, but 2024 is way too soon for this kinda thing.

(Also expect Ordinals and other shit activities to increase hard if this happens)

PlanB model is wrong. The S2F algo predicts a 2x decrease in supply every 4 years (so an increase in S2F) and this leads to an exponential growth. This should look like a straight line in a log graph but the growth of BTC is curved in a convex fashion (downwards). There is a very precise law for the growth of BTC and it is what I call the BTC Scaling Law.

https://medium.com/quantonomy/btc-scaling-law-model-has-been-right-for-the-last-15-years-real-price-and-model-comparison-5dee5bb495f6

I'm one of those people, who think that a 500K Bitcoin price(or above) is impossible. If such price happens, that would be the biggest "tulip mania" financial bubble in the history of human civilization. Who the hell is going to invest trillions of dollars into buying a financial asset, that has slow transactions and high transaction fees? What's the biggest utility of Bitcoin? Buying at 40K so you could sell at 80K?
I think that a price between 70K and 100K is achievable in a short time frame, there's no way for such price to be sustained for more than 1 or 2 months.

The S2F model just became inaccurate last few years ago, for me it's normal, this model is speculation also. Always expect the unexpected, even famous S2F model is failing or becoming inaccurate means, it's extremely difficult to predict the future of Bitcoin.

Pretty sure that S2F was predicting above $100k BTC during the last cycle which of course didn't happen. It's just like those moon math charts - they eventually fail and get updated with new price history to extrapolate, and then fail again anyway.

I have my own theory that the price growth is slowing down from cycle to cycle because emission has less and less impact on the supply, so for having some huge price ranges like $500k there needs to be a surge in demand. Here people would start talking about being hedge against inflation, replacing fiat and so on, but Bitcoin failed to perfectly counter inflation and negative economic events, in fact it went down many times during those periods, because it's a high risk asset.

Yes, Bitcoin is dead blah blah blah on which this had been a never ending kind of saying on which people would really be just that simply keep telling on things just because they dont know on what the future looks like.
Where are those people who had been saying that Bitcoin is dead when it was still $400 or even on less? Its never been that something new that there would really be that those criticisms of those people who doesnt believe into its potential but later on then did become a solid believer just because Bitcoin did made up a huge slap into their face on the time that it did reached out those non expected all time highs.
Selling out on news? This is always been a known saying on which you would be selling when everyone is really that greedy.It is a common way on trying out to take advantage into these kind of moments.

Everything is actually possible with Bitcoin. Many people who knew about Bitcoin when it was first introduced in 2009 would never have believed that Bitcoin price can move from $0 as it was then to $46k as it is today. This is a proof that anything can happen as far as Bitcoin is concerned. But to think of $532k immediately after halving? Sounds kind of unrealistic to me. I don't want to sound like a naysayer but we just have to keep our fingers crossed.


I am a believer of Bitcoin and its growth but $532k speculation immediately after halving is quite an unrealistic prediction which might not even happen anytime soon. Though I am positive that Bitcoin price will go up after the halving but $532k is not coming now. We just have to keep our fingers crossed.

Bitcoin is not dead and cannot be dead. A lot of people saying bitcoin is dead just don’t know what the next movement of bitcoin could be and they just make predictions out of context, hoping that their predictions will go well and they will be praised by the public for given a true verdict about bitcoin. They wanted to use that as a reference but it all turned against them. Now that S2F has predicted the price to be above $500K after the halving, I see that it is a just another speculation by them but this time around in the right direction. Speculation should still remain as speculation and not regarded as true or untrue until when proven with time.

Back in 2015, Bitcoin was considered dead by many. It was right to think so because everyone thought it was a terrible situation.

The picture from 2015 shows what the situation was like.

Yes, saying Bitcoin is dead is getting more and more boring. They didn't see that Bitcoin's journey could have been more stable. It needs time to get stronger. Stabilises over time.

A halving after 2024 is not out of the question. The prediction must be precise and time-related. 2024 or 2030 is a good thing. I need time to become stable.

It's like I always say: when in doubt, simply zoom out (on the graph)! 

The naysayers can continue shovelling dirts at Bitcoin while it keeps soaring higher and attaining greater heights. Over and over Bitcoin has proven that it's not dead and I'm really looking forward to the year's halving and bitcoin ATH during the bull. While I'm very optimistic about the price, I feel the S2F model prediction of $532k is way too much. I understand the fomo about Bitcoin spot ETF listing, but I think $150k - $200k price mark is very possibly during the bull.

This will be interesting to see.  If before the next Halving we will see Bitcoin priced at half a million Dollars then I will from then on believe every thing is possible with Bitcoin.

The S2F prediction model is very inaccurate in my opinion.  But we shall see after this Halving.  If it hits the nail twice then it will gain a lot of interest and credibility.

I still believe that everything is possible in crypto especially in bitcoin investment, would you have any day believed that you will see bitcoin price at the current price? Even if is yes it was at cause you had the basics knowledge those who doesn't understand the movement of bitcoin and what's all about would still say it's impossible for you to have seen another higher price.

$532k is still possible but I am not quite sure it would be after this halving otherwise the next 4 years we might see that but, however I can't still generalized the overall price of bitcoin since it's purely on a higher speculation maybe after the ETF we might see it over there as said but presently let us witness the halving and watch out to it.

People who say that bitcoin is dead are those people who really do not understand bitcoin and its volatile market congrats to you for believing bitcoin and buying at that time

I am not going to lie seeing predicted prices make me shock sometimes i guess there are still people like me who can not comprehend how much money is in crypto right now and how much more will there be in the future

That's right, he is one of those whose model didn't come true, and instead of apologizing to people for leading them in the wrong direction, he now wants to "profit" again with a new model that, regardless of the halving+possible approval of the ETF, really looks unrealistic. The model simply cannot be successfully applied to Bitcoin.

---

I would not dare to advise people what to do with their investments, but this is definitely the wrong time to sell if we still believe that the halving will have a similar effect as it was the case in the past. However, some speculate that the rejection of spot ETF approval could result in a correction, and someone who would sell today might make a good move.

Because everyone's sentiment will be very different and the perspective that only thinks about a short way and something definite is what they can digest so that when bitcoin is now at $40k and say that bitcoin will get to $500k then most people will definitely react that it is an impossibility maybe even those who believe still doubt because it will not be able to happen in the near future just like in 2019 like the story you gave when bitcoin was $4k and people said that there was no way it would be at $55k.

But on the other hand we also have our own beliefs for this regardless of whether it can happen or not in the near future of course we know that we only need to focus on the goals we want to achieve in bitcoin so that regardless of some speculation about the price of bitcoin and many sentiments or reactions that occur afterwards we only have to focus on what we will do for our own benefit. As long as we are still confident and our target is still not achieved for bitcoin then we still have to wait until the target we are aiming for can be achieved.

PlanB's better than most but he's conveniently forgotten he got it way, way wrong on his last bull call. Feel like it's slightly off character to go for half a million too, thought he'd be a bit less troll this time around.

I'd happily eat any item of clothing if he's right (but after 2024 can mean 2099 too...).

The problem with those people in my opinion is that they don't have a lot of stuff to do besides watching their crypto grow in profit, if you actually don't think about it that much, you inevitably hodl too long than you've ever been when you're watching your crypto 24/7, getting a hobby that doesn't involve cryptocurrency can help you not make the mistake of selling early because you're watching it everytime. Totally agree, it should be at the right opportunity you should be selling and not at the price that many think is the right time to sell.
I don't just hodl for the long-term, I'm also buying so I can get more value and increase the profit that I might be able to get out of my hodl. The people you're talking about are split in a category, one is the people that will never get over it and think that it's going to be that way forever even if they're wrong so many times about the death of bitcoin and those that will get over it and go to the side that invests in bitcoin eventually and rants about regretting not getting in when bitcoin's price was much lower than the time that he got in.

Simple rule: "All speculation is just speculation"

Looking at PlanB's perspective, that is their perspective on Bitcoin. To me, it has no effect on the fact that bitcoin still exists. Although I don't want to argue about the price, I think this kind of speculation acts as a confidence booster or causes a negative reaction to that view. It is both an attraction and a repulsion, I don't mind too much about someone's speculations, because the reality is that I still know right now bitcoin = bitcoin.

They are always probabilities, and probabilities can fail.

There are two possible solutions to avoid this:

understand that monetary expansion is infinite and as bitcoin is scarce, the tendency is for it to appreciate over time.

understand the dynamics of medium and long-term market cycles, to know when to buy and sell.

Knowing this, anyone can achieve financial freedom in a few years.

free yourself from recommendations from other people, the reality is that no one knows absolutely anything, everything is just possibilities.

Everyone wants to get a good profit after investing in Bitcoin, but there are people who sell their assets if they get even a small profit. Therefore, only people who have the courage to hold for longer can be more successful and more profitable. Selling Bitcoin is not a wrong decision, but selling at the right time is the best decision. It is wrong to sell early or sell at a low profit, but after selling at a good opportunity, you definitely have an opportunity to buy again at a lower price.

It's good that you have seen the price of Bitcoin and realized that it is wrong to sell early. However, man learns from mistakes, still if you can hold Bitcoin for long term, it can give you a huge profit. People who think that bitcoin is dead or that bitcoin will disappear have absolutely no idea of the potential of bitcoin. So we should not pay any attention to such things of people. We should benefit from Bitcoin investment ourselves and also educate people around us about it.

He forgot to say that he failed miserably in his predictions in this cycle, revising them downward as time went on, and yet he was still failing:

Plan B Says Bitcoin Price Still 'on Track Towards $100K' Despite Missing November's Price Prediction (November 2021)


He has invested so much time and effort in his model, and has gained so much fame with it that instead of doing what a scientist would do, which would be to falsify the theory, what he does is to keep reformulating it even though it does not agree with the facts.

Now people will say, lucky ****ard.

I would still say that this is madness.

Of course it's impossible. Not because it's impossible, but because I just don’t believe that it is possible. ~$500k is too much for the nearest halving. A more realistic value is something like $100k.

Forecasts are always accurate only on paper, but in practice everything turns out completely differently.


Now? Isn't it too early? But it seemed to me that ~$40 was not the limit for the current cycle.

I assume that until the nearest halving there will probably be some drop in the bitcoin's price (unconfirmed forecasts), because growth is not linear, but occurs in waves.

Lol if you're selling just before the halving because one person is making crazy predictions then you have no idea what you are doing lol. Reminds me of the people a in 2019 and 2020 who were waiting for it to get back close to $20k to sell hahaha


I think the S2F model just fails to take into account diminishing returns and the fact that most people are still confused/scared/reticent and above all else misinformed about Bitcoin and so market cycles will get much smaller than they were last decade as the general public is only going to slowly be educated on bitcoin and it will take many years for the general public to slowly wade into owning bitcoin. $500k+ will obviously get hit in the future, but it's not gonna be this market cycle, it miiiiight be the top of the 2032/2033 cycle but will definitely pass it in the 2036/37 cycle (if that is the 4 year cycle hasn't entirely faded away by that point as halvings get far less important to supply).

BTC is surely not dead and it has use cases that will always make it a currency or an asset in demand, so BTC is a long term project and any discussion of BTC failing is simply bullshit. Nevertheless, predictions on the price of BTC can be wrong, there are so many people that have different opinions on how high BTC will pump after the halving, if this person thinks it will go as high as $532k, that's their opinion, but they should be more specific on the date and time, other people are more reserved with their prediction and think BTC will surely get to $100k in 2025, but we don't know who's right until the time comes.

There is no such thing as a human being, let a human being speak like a human being. Regardless of the current market for BTC, after the S2F model halving in 2024, its value will increase significantly, and again in 4 years, it will likely increase more than the 2024 value. If I could I would buy BTC and invest.

Anything going up with bitcoin is always possible, that's why it's a good thing to set up your selling goal higher than you normally should because bitcoin's proven itself time and time again that it's going to go up despite all of it's detractors throughout the years, how long do we have to learn the same lesson with bitcoin? I don't think I'm up to make the same mistake of selling early because I was blinded by the profit, my absurdist price goal helped me stop potentially stupid things that would've messed up my investments and hodling process. Everytime someone says that bitcoin's dead, I always bring a cup to get those tears from people that's scared to death about that possibility.

Bitcoin is not dead but stronger with time and people get more boring to call "Bitcoin is dead" that is shown in the following summary chart.

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-is-dead/

It is possible but after 2024 halving is vague prediction with time.

After 2024 halving can be 2025, 2029 or 2033. The prediction must be clear and related to time. Without time, it is a trash prediction.

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

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When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.