I'm running cgminer. Not sure if I'm running the right version. I guess I don't know how to tell if I'm actually mining. Where do the rewards end up?
Solo mining, to your wallet, 25 btc if you find a block.
your possibility : 0.00001% ~ , but it's something.
It's like the lottery.
godd luck
What time frame, difficulty change, etc. have you used in your estimate? Are you thinking about a theoretically infinite amount of time to find a block or is it a discrete, finite amount of time, say 1 year (after which most likely the compound increase in probability will be negligible, anyways!)