Good post, oda.
It seems that sentiment wise we're in a win/win situation right now though. The sideways trend at $620-$640 is extremely encouraging in the wake of the latest episode of goxxing.
It's funny, because it feels like the Gox situation is squarely in the rear view mirror right now. I realize that those coins could be anywhere...but the fear of their dumping does seem to be priced in. Which feels bullish.
We'll see.
Topic: Next ATH: July (Read 952 times)
Bullish as I am for the very long term, I see little chance for a new ATH in July this year. The best I could see is that we are in an uncontested uptrend by that time, like July+August 2013, or October+November 2013. In other words: we would be /on our way/ to a new ATH.
Realistically though, I'm not even sure about that. I'm pretty much divided 50/50 if we saw the end of the post-December bear market/correction already. Market/forum/news sentiment-wise I'm leaning towards yes, looking at raw price I'm weakly leaning towards yes, but looking at price derived metrics (e.g. longer time frame RSI, as others, like TERA have posted as well) it could be that we need to see another "leg down" first before we're over it for good. If that's really going to happen (note: I'm undecided myself whether I believe that), I would see late April/early May as a time frame for the "real" LT reversal -- which would leave us 2 or 3 months to go the new ATH -- not realistic, in my opinion.
Realistically though, I'm not even sure about that. I'm pretty much divided 50/50 if we saw the end of the post-December bear market/correction already. Market/forum/news sentiment-wise I'm leaning towards yes, looking at raw price I'm weakly leaning towards yes, but looking at price derived metrics (e.g. longer time frame RSI, as others, like TERA have posted as well) it could be that we need to see another "leg down" first before we're over it for good. If that's really going to happen (note: I'm undecided myself whether I believe that), I would see late April/early May as a time frame for the "real" LT reversal -- which would leave us 2 or 3 months to go the new ATH -- not realistic, in my opinion.
I do concur in that the next ATH looks several weeks/months away at this point
I call trend reversal in 21-28 days.
I do concur in that the next ATH looks several weeks/months away at this point
The $400 in June and then ATH in July doesn't make any sense unless the $400 is a brief flashcrash caused by some mega silk road type incident, but even then it would be $530 and not $400.
Set your clocks.
I think everybody has their heart set on April, unfortunately, when everybody is thinking something, that generally means its going to be too early and/or too late. They're going to have to wait till April is clean done, because people will hold out hope all thru April. In May, we'll probably see something like the mode we're currently in, flat prices, everybody waiting. Then, somewhere in June, we'll see the first downward movement, probably re-testing the $400 low, maybe not quite but probably less than $500 for at least a short period of time (maybe only intraday). Thats the signal to buy. Coins will be dumped to the strong hands at that point, on large volume. With the bottom completely confirmed, and with the excess $$ buyers got from buying at a discount, more and more coins will be bought signalling the next train somewhere within July. I'll give myself a 6 week period to be safe, from June 23 to the August 4. Somewhere in that range we'll find a new ATH.
I think everybody has their heart set on April, unfortunately, when everybody is thinking something, that generally means its going to be too early and/or too late. They're going to have to wait till April is clean done, because people will hold out hope all thru April. In May, we'll probably see something like the mode we're currently in, flat prices, everybody waiting. Then, somewhere in June, we'll see the first downward movement, probably re-testing the $400 low, maybe not quite but probably less than $500 for at least a short period of time (maybe only intraday). Thats the signal to buy. Coins will be dumped to the strong hands at that point, on large volume. With the bottom completely confirmed, and with the excess $$ buyers got from buying at a discount, more and more coins will be bought signalling the next train somewhere within July. I'll give myself a 6 week period to be safe, from June 23 to the August 4. Somewhere in that range we'll find a new ATH.
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