Topic: Next boom within 3-4 months tops (Read 5702 times)

You are obviously intelligent. But the fact you are actually here and posting endless bearish vaguely plausible analysis infers you are actually a bitcoin bull in disguise.

Sold and hope to buy lower or just short? Either way dont bs us with pyramid scheme nonsense please.

This. Poor people are going to get f---ed one way or another... and they are kinda used to it by now. A more stable international system of currency... maybe even something with a fixed exchange rate although that takes the fun out of it for us... would be more appropriate. Basically, a fixed value Bitcoin on a lighter, more user friendly platform would fundamentally transform life for the Third World. This is not that. This could be that. Right now it isn't. So let's stop pretending it is.

Western Union is a superior service to Bitcoin, since WU provides security and user-friendliness. People are willing to pay a lot for those qualities. That's why WU continues making a ton of money, while the Bitcoin pyramid scheme is failing miserably.

Poor people in the developing world won't suddenly attain the tech skills and computer equipment needed to safely acquire, store and sell their bitcoins. Even average Joes in the developed world stay far away from the Bitcoin ponzi scheme, and large Bitcoin bagholders are dumping coins as we speak, a fact obviously reflected in recent price developments.

actually, the graph ends at oct 2016. No one claimed it would continue indefinitely. Everyone but you seems to understand that it will stop at some point.

but up until the point where it approaches saturation, which could very well be 5+ years from now, it will continue at the same exponential rate.

and yes, i understand how compounding works. I understand it can only go on for several years at the most, but as long as there are still sufficient people in the world who haven't adopted bitcoin yet there is a good chance the growth will continue, and it's pretty likely the value of bitcoin would see an increase of several orders of magnitude before we slow down.

ok, we will probably not grow all the way until 2025, but does it really matter after we hit 5 or 6 digits or more?

I'm really really curious about how the current price and performance will be seen in 1 or two years! This could either be just another valley where people would be wise to buy some more cheap coins, or maybe the last chance to cut your losses at least to some extent! I believe it'll be the first possibility, but no one can know that for sure!

"But Ready says betting on bitcoin now is a lot like betting on mobile commerce three or four years ago. People shopping on their phones back then was a very small part of the online shopping market. But that percentage has grown, and Braintree was able to ride that wave to its current success."

http://www.wired.com/2014/09/paypals-support-is-the-best-thing-that-could-happen-to-bitcoin/

I'ts happening.

true if you're willing to consider multiple step tx's.

but the root argument still stands; the whole Bitcoin edifice, be it mining or the price, is contingent upon the exponentially rising fiat monetary bases of all countries.

Correct.

Recommended reading: http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1000000/
Recommended watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI

Look at the remittances market, that alone is worth over 500 billion a year. And mark my words, Bitcoin will eat every penny. You know why? Because Western Union and the others are parasites who steal 20-30% of the money they process. 20-30%!! How long until people realize they are needlessly throwing their hard-earned money - and these are POOR people we're talking about here - down the toilet? They will ALL switch to bitcoin, just like EVERYONE stopped using Blockbuster video to pay $5 for one movie rental once Netflix came online. This will happen, because people prefer to have money rather than throw it away.
--> http://www.coindesk.com/philippines-startups-fulfil-bitcoins-remittance-promise/

Iran exports around 200 thousand barrels of oil to China every day. That's $20 million worth of oil being exported every day. The Iranian and Chinese are not idiots. So there is or will emerge at some point a HUGE MARKET DEMAND for being able to transact $20 million of value in cyberspace every day. The volume today traded in Bitcoin is EXTREMELY LOW relative to the potential volume. A tiny fraction of a fraction of it's potential use-cases. Ask yourself how much the bitcoin price would have to rise to make the daily volume $20 billion, for example.

Now look at cash transfers in Africa, look at MPESA, http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2014/06/cash-transfers-africa
Look at the situation in Argentina. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e__m-w4N7NI

Point is, there's a cornucopia of industries, services, dire situations, and TERRIBLE inflating worthless fiat-scrip currencies just BEGGING to be swallowed up by Bitcoin.

The only question for each of them, is when. Not if, when. As far as I'm concerned $100,000 per bitcoin is a conservative estimate. We will see it before 2020.

As longs as there BTC exchange where you can easily trade BTC for USD or viceversa, it doesn't matter in what currency manufacturers sell their hardware.

as long as some hardware manufacturers continue to sell miners for fiat, exponential growth is possible.

It's possible to sustain it for only some year. Do you realize what 0.59% per day is? Of course it can keep increasing at that rate, but not indefinitely, as that graph indicates.

I didn't know that bitcoin users were only 4 - 5 millions in the world, we are still few and the potential growth is huge.
Now I understand why someone says we are heading to millions for a btc.

the simpler answer would be to tie the Bitcoin price to the USD monetary base.  that seems to be able to grow infinitely, let alone exponentially.

WRONG!

It's reasonable to assume bitcoin will continue doing what it has done for the past few years, so long as it hasn't saturated the market yet.

With 7 billion+ potential users and only roughly 4 or 5 million users (at most) we can sustain this growth for at least several years.

Also, when it does slow down, the slow down would be gradual, as it approaches saturation. It would not be a sudden stop.

So, eventually it will slow down, but before than we will be several orders of magnitude ahead of our current position, most likely at least 3 orders of magnitude. Probably even more.

bitcoin is going to the final capitulation!

this can't be emphasized enough and is one of my main bullish indicators.  price will have to follow as those who were hoping to get into Bitcoin via mining will get diverted in buying Bitcoin outright.  if Bitcoin were failing, that hashrate would be plunging.

Normally it would have been July/august but for some reason activity dropped around March and took a while to recover, which got us several months delay.

Its possible we go to $100k in 2 years, all we need is more people.  Look at how football players wages and price tags have gone through the roof due to interest + a well packaged product. 

Just make bitcoin for the mainstream, simple.

It's very unlikely, but not impossible. What is impossible, unless there's USD hyperinflation, is to increase permanently BTC/USD at 0.59% per day.

I wouldn't count on it.

If one bitcoin will be valued 100,000$ my 0,3 btc will be 30,000$ and it's not bad at all!

According to the above chart in september 2016 we will be all rich... That's too much optimistic in my opinion, we can't reach 100,000$ in a period of time so small.

The first one, but it's still very stupid to expect past perfomance to replicate in the future. It's simply impossible to grow indefinitely at 0.59% per day. Unless we have USD hyperinflation, of course.

One of these graphs has 1,200 data points. The other graph has 1 data point. Which do you think is more useful?

Don't stop there, prolong the graph until 2025 or so!

Indeed. The beautiful thing, is what you begin to see when you extrapolate those curves outward a bit..



Difficulty, hash-rate, and adoption all look like this.

Price follows sooner or later, it's a mathematical inevitability. Demand is going nowhere but up, while supply becomes more and more scarce (hashing difficulty).

This ain't rocket surgery folks.

I study paterns as well, looks bullish to me!

https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Quite insane how difficulty and hash-rate grew in not even one year's time!

Except the US monetary base or the US national debt among many other things....unless you are suggesting that they will go up until they cease to exist?

Bitcoin truth is found by you

IMO the next peek will be MUCH higher than most are expecting IMO 20k, but it will take a lot longer before it even starts.  IMO we might be in a year and a bit of fallin phase :O.

Too legit. We'll see nothing but growth. We are talking a complete revolution here as the FIAT system collapses. This is not a joke. Look at the DATA. We are headed for FIAT devaluation, MATHEMATICALLY.

Nothing except the other decentralization of an existing centralized system, AKA the internet, when it replaced the aging dinosaur Telecommunications industry over the course of 15 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet

The internet is the ONLY technology it makes sense to compare Bitcoin with.

Wrooong. No one cares how low it goes, objectively speaking i'll surpass ATH eventually. So if you sell now, you are lossing shit loads of money in 10 years, it's too much of a risk. Buy and hold. It's like you guys want to be poor?

far as forever

you should hope bitcoin don't break $300 and $200 first, would you?

The next bottom will probably be around $1500 and the peak at abou $5000 or more, but how far are we from that?

We won't see under $1000 USD again after the next boom. There might be a small rise at the end of the year with anticipation but I think something major needs to happen for a significant influx of new money (BRIC adoption, financial collapse, reward halves etc).

I also believe in the cyclical theory of the price of bitcoin. Let's just hope that everything starts soon. Some had said it had to begin in late July or early August

one of the best chart i have ever seen,thank you beli dear

If I had to guess I would probably guess no.  It sounds to me like bitcoin will likely have more bubbles than a pot of boiling water before the last bitcoin is mined a couple of generations from now.

hodl!

So the bubbles cycle is finished and bitcoin is overvalued at the moment?

Nothing goes up forever.

That pattern suggests that we may not be looking at any significant gains till almost the middle of next year. I think a lot of people were hoping for a bubble this year and are overextended. So they are being forced to sell off to pay loans, make margin calls, ect. Another thing is that there is a lot of downward pressure from mining. Before the last bubble, mining was mainly a hobbyist thing and most of the bitcoins were held. Now mining farms have to sell most of their coins to stay in business.

I think it may be a long time before the next bubble. In fact, I am thinking there may be no more bubbles due to mining sale pressure. The future may just stagnate or slowly drop for a while, until the amateur speculators get out. At some point in the middle of 2015, I think we will start to see a slow but steady increase in the price of bitcoin.

Most bitcoin advocates and believers are expecting a bubble. There have been lots of bubbles and the pattern says there should be more. That is the strange thing about markets, when everybody expects a market to go one way, it goes into a different pattern.

Look at all the positive news about Bitcoin. ATMs showing up everywhere, Dubai money, new startups, lots of seed money. There has been a lot of stuff since last year. Yet the price just keeps slowly going down.

I believe in Bitcoin, but so do a lot of other people and those people pushed the market way ahead of it's fundamentals.

I don't know what the new pattern will be, but I am sure it won't be an upper staircase of bubbles.

Ah we dug up that image again. Yeah, we're now at a deeper and further point on that chart. It seems a lot of people are still holding onto this paradigm. I honestly don't know how things are going to play out this time. I guess it could go either way now!

I have seen this chart or a similar one hundreds of times, all saying that the value will recover soon... but untill now there's no sign of the rise.

its coming soon get ready folks

Ya niggaz move that dope.
Ya niggaz move that dope.

Real dope dealaz fo' real.

Yes, a next boom can happen between December - January. 

Care to put some money where your mouth is?

There will ever be a new bubble or the cycle is ended, probably most of us are hoping that we will continue upwards but nobody can predict the future.

Especially when it's people like Kireinaha who put you on ignore.  It greatly increases the probability that you won't have to deal with their (his) retarded opinion of your own well thought out, rational and logical views.  

You do realize when you put people on ignore it benefits them right? It's like if falling put people on ignore. Big fucking whoop...

maybe the 3rd time was the charm -- and planning on a 4th is a bad bet.

i've said it and i'll say it again. bubble chasing is a very dangerous (and poorly thought out) plan, if you could call it a plan.

if you invest in bitcoin based on long term fundamentals, then hold steady based on that. don't plan out the next bubble and start daydreaming of buying an island. that's only gonna hurt you psychologically, imo.

i think that everything above the previous pump, can be called a boom

All "patterns" are non-sense.

As for claiming bear trend without reason. How is that any different than what the original poster claim?

No.. his pattern is not..  This has happend 3 times already..

My prediction: you are wrong. Bear market will continue and we will be lower than 450 in 3-4 months. Aso your "pattern" is nonsense.

4-5k would be a definite boom, but I would also classify anything over the old ATH of ~$1200 as a boom.

I hope that the bitcoin arrive at least  at 2-3 k $, is a really nice project and btc is the future !  But these 2-3k $ will arrive in  6months - 1 years.

well, if it doesn't happen just push it back another few months.

i wouldn't be surprised at all if we don't see another run-up for 1-2 years from now. i also think it's possible that the ATH won't be surpassed (though i believe that it will be in time).

the longer you keep chasing the bubbles, the further away they get. just ask the those who've been margin called....

Oh look. Another "boom will happen again soon because... bitcoin" post. Many like you have come and gone this year, and all predictions have been wrong.

Welcome to my ignore.

The bottom is below 300 for china exchange.

boom is 4-5k USD per BTC

to me its looking like 1-3 years

Funny that you can predict it so precisely.

I agree the bottom was in here also, why is nobody suggesting that we have been in a slow upward trend since then?

i agree.

4 mo is a long time however.  the bottom is most likely already in @ 340 in April.

$2000+ at least, probably $3000+ at peak

In 2016 maybe.

I would define boom as 5K.

Winter in America = Summer in Australia. 

Define boom.

usually the boom is in autumn or winter, there was never a boom in summer, so it makes sense that the end of the year will sign the next boom

I have been waiting for the next boom, seems like it is long then the pass boom..

The boom will happen before the year ends. As there are a lot of Chinese bitcoiners too, expect to peak right before Chinese New Year as well that is around Feb next year. Last year's rally was largely attributed to the Chinese.

I'm gonna take the risk of a public prediction, cause I like studying patterns:



All of this has happened before.