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Topic: Next BTC difficulty 176.68% of present..in 7 days...?! (Read 4445 times)

member
Activity: 287
Merit: 10
The flow diagram shows the time line for Avalon selling it's chips in bulk, in lots of ten thousand to distributors.  This extra estimated 84 TH/s, at around $2.8 million in chip value, could have an enormous impact on mining output and difficulty levels thereafter, and is expected at end July 2013.



There is a high correlation between the price of Bitcoin's and increases in difficulty levels. As the Bitcoin price increases so does it drive resources into play to be used for mining Bitcoins. 

Apart from the specifics of the sale of ASIC chips, estimates of future difficulty generally show increasing difficulty levels because of the expectation that new technology will bring about faster and less power hungry methods to mine for Bitcoin's. As long as the Bitcoin price holds up, we should expect general technology driven increasing levels of difficulty.

The increase in difficulty may continue as before until end July or later, when we may see steeper levels followed by stabilization to more standard increases thereafter.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Let's Start a Cryptolution!!
Where did you get this calculation from? Just curious?
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 250
Difficulty is a product of luck?? WHAT?? OMG.... Variance...  What is that scary word!?!
legendary
Activity: 3583
Merit: 1094
Think for yourself
whaaaa scary stats!! Cry

Not Stat's just a WAG.

There's nothing scary about difficulty re-targeting, happens every 2016 blocks.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
whaaaa scary stats!! Cry
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
The actual just set difficulty was born underestimated...  Huh
legendary
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
i wish they all stop mining for one day, so i can make few coins, than they can restart  lol
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
Thanks for the link. Anyone else think difficulty will re-stabilize in the near future as we start to see how the increase in ASICs plays out?
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
What's your calculator saying now out of interest? Smiley
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
It is a massive overestimate right now Smiley

I like hearing that. I looked at different calculators and they weren't so different. 63-73%
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
It is a massive overestimate right now Smiley
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
Well it depends how many more ASICs come online in the next week, it might be an underestimate..
legendary
Activity: 3583
Merit: 1094
Think for yourself
In 7d 21hr 42m 15s BTC difficulty will go up by 76.68%. Thoughts?

Here's a thought.

So what.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
Difficulty has just changed literally an hour ago or something.

Most of the difficulty prediction scripts out there use the number of blocks found since the most recent difficulty change, and the amount of time they were found in, then extrapolate that to work out how long it'll take to find all 2016 blocks, and comparing that to the 14 days it "should" take.

Since only 8 blocks have been found there is nowhere near enough data to extrapolate upon.

A better idea would be to use the time it took to find the last rolling 2016 (or a bit less) blocks and work with that, maybe some calculators do that already but not the one I use on IRC Smiley
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
I did the estimate based on today's rates..

Do you expect people to jump off right before the next diff jump?
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
Wait a bit longer after a difficulty re-target before panicking over the next wildly inaccurate guesses Smiley
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
In 7d 21hr 42m 15s BTC difficulty will go up by 76.68%. Thoughts?
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