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adamstgBit

legendary

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Quote from: Dargo on July 18, 2012, 08:03:44 PM

"Bubble" is a pretty vague notion. I think a lot of people just use it when, in their opinion, prices have reached an unjustified level. But if prices must rapidly contract in order to get the "pop" implied by the term, how far and how fast do they have to contract? In the last bitcoin bubble, prices contracted by over 90% in about 5 months. Pretty safe to say that was a bubble. But suppose price climbs to 25 then retraces to 15 in 3-4 months. Is that a bubble? Not so clear. I'm expecting that when price contracts significantly, which it surely will at some point, people will say, "see, I told you it was a bubble!" But given how vague the term is in the first place, that's not a very interesting prediction. The whole debate would be a lot more interesting if we had some reasonably precise definition of what counts as a bubble. Something like, "price has to contract by at least 50% within 6 months."

ya we over use the word bubble...

but bitcoin is like the master of bubble making just watch this video

http://youtu.be/EciMcKacMBg - 2 mins
http://youtu.be/gkolebY-N4w - 1 min ( ~~dont~~ listen to the crazy talk in the back Wink

)

smoothie

legendary

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: Dargo on July 18, 2012, 08:03:44 PM

"Bubble" is a pretty vague notion. I think a lot of people just use it when, in their opinion, prices have reached an unjustified level. But if prices must rapidly contract in order to get the "pop" implied by the term, how far and how fast do they have to contract? In the last bitcoin bubble, prices contracted by over 90% in about 5 months. Pretty safe to say that was a bubble. But suppose price climbs to 25 then retraces to 15 in 3-4 months. Is that a bubble? Not so clear. I'm expecting that when price contracts significantly, which it surely will at some point, people will say, "see, I told you it was a bubble!" But given how vague the term is in the first place, that's not a very interesting prediction. The whole debate would be a lot more interesting if we had some reasonably precise definition of what counts as a bubble. Something like, "price has to contract by at least 50% within 6 months."

+troll.79

silverbox

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Activity: 966

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Quote from: Dargo on July 18, 2012, 08:03:44 PM

"Bubble" is a pretty vague notion. I think a lot of people just use it when, in their opinion, prices have reached an unjustified level. But if prices must rapidly contract in order to get the "pop" implied by the term, how far and how fast do they have to contract? In the last bitcoin bubble, prices contracted by over 90% in about 5 months. Pretty safe to say that was a bubble. But suppose price climbs to 25 then retraces to 15 in 3-4 months. Is that a bubble? Not so clear. I'm expecting that when price contracts significantly, which it surely will at some point, people will say, "see, I told you it was a bubble!" But given how vague the term is in the first place, that's not a very interesting prediction. The whole debate would be a lot more interesting if we had some reasonably precise definition of what counts as a bubble. Something like, "price has to contract by at least 50% within 6 months."

+1.5648

evoorhees

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Activity: 1008

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Democracy is the original 51% attack

Quote from: Dargo on July 18, 2012, 08:03:44 PM

"Bubble" is a pretty vague notion. I think a lot of people just use it when, in their opinion, prices have reached an unjustified level. But if prices must rapidly contract in order to get the "pop" implied by the term, how far and how fast do they have to contract? In the last bitcoin bubble, prices contracted by over 90% in about 5 months. Pretty safe to say that was a bubble. But suppose price climbs to 25 then retraces to 15 in 3-4 months. Is that a bubble? Not so clear. I'm expecting that when price contracts significantly, which it surely will at some point, people will say, "see, I told you it was a bubble!" But given how vague the term is in the first place, that's not a very interesting prediction. The whole debate would be a lot more interesting if we had some reasonably precise definition of what counts as a bubble. Something like, "price has to contract by at least 50% within 6 months."

+100

Dargo

legendary

Activity: 1820

Merit: 1000

"Bubble" is a pretty vague notion. I think a lot of people just use it when, in their opinion, prices have reached an unjustified level. But if prices must rapidly contract in order to get the "pop" implied by the term, how far and how fast do they have to contract? In the last bitcoin bubble, prices contracted by over 90% in about 5 months. Pretty safe to say that was a bubble. But suppose price climbs to 25 then retraces to 15 in 3-4 months. Is that a bubble? Not so clear. I'm expecting that when price contracts significantly, which it surely will at some point, people will say, "see, I told you it was a bubble!" But given how vague the term is in the first place, that's not a very interesting prediction. The whole debate would be a lot more interesting if we had some reasonably precise definition of what counts as a bubble. Something like, "price has to contract by at least 50% within 6 months."

adamstgBit

legendary

Activity: 1904

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Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: Bjork on July 18, 2012, 06:48:29 PM

Lower, people will remember the last burst and will sell. Last time people had no idea where it would stop.

Ya they'll sell alright

but if theirs enough people buying, that's not a problem

UP UP UP AND AWAY!

Cheesy

Bjork

sr. member

Activity: 457

Merit: 250

Look for the bear necessities!!

Lower, people will remember the last burst and will sell. Last time people had no idea where it would stop.

bracek

hero member

Activity: 530

Merit: 500

I vote 50

better fundamentals, higher starting price, confidence that it won't burst to zero

Topic: next bubble (Read 1057 times)