Next Bull Run (questions) | Bitcointalksearch.org

kashish948

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Quote from: wobber on June 28, 2014, 10:54:53 AM

I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)

No one knows!

BTC_Fundamentals

member

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Quote from: Biodom on June 29, 2014, 03:59:08 PM

I think that the next bubble will be the biggest (or equal to 2011).
It will start with Wall Street-hedge funds, home offices, then it will get a boost after ETF starts trading and finish up with retail Joe and Jane participating and silly valuations (similar to Internet bubble in 1998-2000).

I expect 10-100 fold appreciation (to 6000-60000, maybe even 100000), then a ferocious crash back to 2-3K and then a true age of bitcoin will begun with large companies, steady growth and lots and lots of utility.

This would be really great, but when can it happen ?

windjc

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Quote from: wobber on June 28, 2014, 10:54:53 AM

I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)

I'll take a crack at this. Maybe 1 day it will be stickied. Wink

1. I think a spark is often all that it takes a rally to get started, once the fundamentals and sentiment is right. I think we are 3-4 months from the fundamentals and sentiment to be right for a spark to ignite them. Let's revisit this idea in October. If we go up in the short/intermediate term, we will have to fight with resistance at 1000 for a while. That will take a while to resolve itself and set the stage for a larger rally.

2. Probably not. I think we are looking a month or two past August at the best case scenario.

3. Yes. It will take more money to make each new rally. Thus the rallys will be smaller and smaller in size. I think the next rally will be probably 50% of the old one - meaning a 5xish growth from where it begins (maybe less).

4. No. Same reason as #3.

5. Nope. Not even close. No one understands bitcoin or really cares at this point in history.

zimmah

legendary

Activity: 1106

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Quote from: wobber on June 28, 2014, 10:54:53 AM

I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)

No one can answer this with any degree of certainty, but i'll just take a guess

1. i think just some minor event, if it happens it happens.... it could even be a positive announcement on the results of the auction, or maybe some other things

2. possibly, peaks are usually 8 months apart, so a new rally is expected to be soon (july/august)

3. no, there will come newcomers once the price start moving, and many people (and newspapers etc.) have heard about bitcoin, so they will look into it quicker and more seriously. Last rally hardly anyone knew what bitcoin was, now at least they know it, so chances are they will try to catch the train. It could even be higher....

4. Yes, see 3

5. not even close.

Malin Keshar

hero member

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Quote from: wobber on June 28, 2014, 10:54:53 AM

I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)

1 - No one knows. BTC might be subject to threshold effect, or heavy market manipulation(GOX robots), and we might risk say this will happen, but its impossible to say WHEN it will.

2 - Could start august, next month, take 18 months to happen(like 2012, if I'm not wrong), or be totally different and takes more than two years to happen, or maybe will be a slow and steadfast increase. There is no way to know

3 - No way to know. There are many people that doesn't knows BTC, but also big barriers to them to enter bitcoin world, and too much FUD. For people not tech savvy and with the poor average economic knowledge, bitcoin seems like bullshit or scam.

4 - Could be either 3 or 4

5 - Will happen one day 100% sure, but its impossible to know what will be the stagnation point.

Biodom

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I think that the next bubble will be the biggest (or equal to 2011).
It will start with Wall Street-hedge funds, home offices, then it will get a boost after ETF starts trading and finish up with retail Joe and Jane participating and silly valuations (similar to Internet bubble in 1998-2000).

I expect 10-100 fold appreciation (to 6000-60000, maybe even 100000), then a ferocious crash back to 2-3K and then a true age of bitcoin will begun with large companies, steady growth and lots and lots of utility.

lyth0s

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1000

World Class Cryptonaire

Quote from: wobber on June 28, 2014, 10:54:53 AM

I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?
Yes.

A) Discounts for purchases made in Bitcoin, especially if it's a big retailer like Walmart or Target.

B)Bitpay's program to allow post-tax working income to buy bitcoins.

C) Bankruptcy of a country and it switching to Bitcoin.

D) Rapid Inflation.

E) Extensive quantitative easing.

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?
Definitely

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?
Probably the same as previous rallies or a bit smaller if its due to a small change. If it's due to a country going bankrupt and switching to bitcoin and the media protreys bitcoin as the money safe haven, then get ready for an explosion

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?
Yes

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)
No way, we are at just the begining

zimmah

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1005

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on June 29, 2014, 12:36:05 AM

i think there's lots of people who would like to pretend it's possible to know the answers to these questions. it's all just wild speculation. these cycles aren't predictable. and if everyone expects a bubble..... well, it's pretty likely it won't be until a lot of those people have been squeezed.

for reference, see bitfinex's long stats......

Why would you want to squeeze out other investors, I don't think bitcoin was meant for greed. I think it was mostly against greed.

Sure some of us here are still greedy, that's just what most of us have become in this capitalist world, but I believe bitcoin has the potential to reduce the need for greed. At least the money supply is much more fair, thus there will be in more 'cheaters' who get to play for free and make the rules.

Gimmelfarb

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i think there's lots of people who would like to pretend it's possible to know the answers to these questions. it's all just wild speculation. these cycles aren't predictable. and if everyone expects a bubble..... well, it's pretty likely it won't be until a lot of those people have been squeezed.

for reference, see bitfinex's long stats......

Mayuyu48

hero member

Activity: 644

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you can read another "comment" from OP
and read many informative comment below that
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/retracted-previous-statements-558479

JimboToronto

legendary

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You're never too old to think young.

Quote from: kerafym on June 28, 2014, 10:48:45 PM

Rumor has it something big will happen on July 24th.

What good's a rumor without a link?

kerafym

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

THE GAME OF CHANCE. CHANGED.

Rumor has it something big will happen on July 24th.

Biodom

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Quote from: negafen on June 28, 2014, 09:35:27 PM

when the retail penetration start picking up.

this is always picking up on Fri/Sat

negafen

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Activity: 218

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Next bull run will occur when the retail penetration start picking up.

Biodom

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People always overestimate short term moves and underestimate long term.
Case in hand: look at AAPL stock chart starting in Jan 2003. It is up from ~$1 to $91 in 11 years with a lot of crashes, etc.
The major trends beat volatility, hence day trading is futile in 99% or more cases.
The wind behind BTC sail is its potential PLUS the fact that there will ever be only 21 mil BTC or 0.003BTC per each Earth inhabitant or 0.016 BTC per OECD countries citizen or 0.013 if you add Brazil and Russia to OECD.
So, if you own much more than 0.016 BTC, you will be more affluent than average in developed world in 20 years IF bitcoin succeeds

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: BitcoinBobbeh on June 28, 2014, 03:39:27 PM

Quote from: wobber on June 28, 2014, 10:54:53 AM

I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)

Sigh... did you buy in at $1,000? Or maybe last week? You seem so impatient.

Check the activity level. Someone with that number was throwing coins around while everyone else here was still being potty trained.

1-4 - Dunno. I for one can't see an explosion until there are better exchanges and some trustworthy investment vehicles. Nothing dramatic will happen until 2015 is my guess but it would be lovely to be proven wrong.

5 - The gulf between hearing about something and taking the time to understand it is an enormous one. Perhaps it'll only kick off for proper once there are apps and outlets that can boil the appeal down to a few bulletproof syllables and make it equally easy to use.

My personal argument is that we've only just started warming up.

the joint

legendary

Activity: 1834

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Quote from: wobber on June 28, 2014, 10:54:53 AM

I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)

1) Maybe.
2) Sure.
3) Maybe.
4) Sure.
5) Doubt it.

I have a lucky 8-ball to sell if you're interested.

tspacepilot

legendary

Activity: 1456

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I may write code in exchange for bitcoins.

I don't have answers to all of your questions. But personally, I think the next valuation increase for bitcoin is going to happen as the infrastructure gets developed to make it a really easy way to buy and sell stuff. This kinda thing is happening slowly, but surely. For example, in the next town over (of only a few thousand people) it looks like the local coffee shop may start accepting payment in bitcoins. This kinda thing is what bitcoin really needs to fulfill its purpose.

BitcoinBobbeh

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

Quote from: wobber on June 28, 2014, 10:54:53 AM

I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)

Sigh... did you buy in at $1,000? Or maybe last week? You seem so impatient.

Look ... It seems to me any number of huge companies could announce Bitcoin acceptance and the price wouldn't fluctuate greatly. At this stage I think wider adoption over time is becoming a more and more likely scenario in which Bitcoin prices rise. I'm fine with it because that's still a relatively fast process.

If you can't wait past "let's say August" for that to start, then please release your coins to me.

wobber

legendary

Activity: 1064

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I have some questions that I cannot answer myself so I invite you to post your opinions

1. Are we in a situation that needs only a spark to ignite a new rally? If so, what could it be? Buttefly effect?

2. If there will be rally, could it start by let's say August (~250 days after the last big one)?

3. Will the rally be less powerful (ie 2-3x price increase) than the last one, because not so many newcomers and also because many think it will be a huge rally?

4. Could the rally be bigger because now it's even more exposure of Bitcoin (USMS auction, press) and people know it's the best way to make some easy money?

5. Could we be at the saturation point of bitcoin usage by masses (my personal argument is that many people heard of bitcoin but very few afford or are interested to own)

Topic: Next Bull Run (questions) (Read 2192 times)