Next diff increase 3% (in 50 minutes)

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: RoadStress on July 14, 2014, 06:46:05 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 14, 2014, 04:23:02 PM

luck could cause +- 10% so a 13% true jump could be 15% for the high end and 11% for the low end.

along with the summer's heat and power hungry gear being shut down. I just don't see diff jumps above 18% avg. my guess is 10-15% avg for the next 5 jumps.

Where is everyone that claimed 20%+ every jump until December?

I don't know where they are. but this jump coming in a few hours looks to be under 8%.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty 7.71 %

The sp30s have issues so next jump around aug 8th may be under 10 %

Bitsaurus

hero member

Activity: 873

Merit: 1007

Quote from: RoadStress on July 14, 2014, 06:46:05 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 14, 2014, 04:23:02 PM

luck could cause +- 10% so a 13% true jump could be 15% for the high end and 11% for the low end.

along with the summer's heat and power hungry gear being shut down. I just don't see diff jumps above 18% avg. my guess is 10-15% avg for the next 5 jumps.

Where is everyone that claimed 20%+ every jump until December?

They probably left the forums after having lost money/assets. 20% every jump would require non-stop orders - it might have been possible if Bitcoin ran up to 2 or $3k. At $380 to $650 for 4 months nobody end user if piling on the hash.

RoadStress

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1007

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 14, 2014, 04:23:02 PM

luck could cause +- 10% so a 13% true jump could be 15% for the high end and 11% for the low end.

along with the summer's heat and power hungry gear being shut down. I just don't see diff jumps above 18% avg. my guess is 10-15% avg for the next 5 jumps.

Where is everyone that claimed 20%+ every jump until December?

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: ALToids on July 13, 2014, 11:37:04 PM

Quote from: xstr8guy on July 13, 2014, 05:46:12 PM

Quote from: SirChiko on July 13, 2014, 06:44:55 AM

Quote from: Kimowa on July 12, 2014, 09:34:42 PM

Huge jump coming soon, 20% at least... Rockbox and s3 is coming..

They already have them running as they are testing them so it will probably be way lower Wink

No manufacturer can burn-in test their entire production batch at once. They would need access to a massive, massive datacenter just to temporarily test the new ASICs before shipping.

More likely they simply fill a smaller datacenter the machines that first come out of production, test them for a period of time, then ship them out when the next batch arrives for testing.

So when you think you're seeing jumps in network hashrate due to ASIC production, you're only seeing a small part of the total production that arrives for testing and then ships to customers in waves.

Or it could all just be lady luck. 3 days of 20% luck could have lead to the 25% increase and a week of bad lucky could have lead to the minimal increase. Certain pools are not willing to release it's hashing data so it's difficult to asses this.

luck could cause +- 10% so a 13% true jump could be 15% for the high end and 11% for the low end.

along with the summer's heat and power hungry gear being shut down. I just don't see diff jumps above 18% avg. my guess is 10-15% avg for the next 5 jumps.

ALToids

hero member

Activity: 519

Merit: 500

Quote from: xstr8guy on July 13, 2014, 05:46:12 PM

Quote from: SirChiko on July 13, 2014, 06:44:55 AM

Quote from: Kimowa on July 12, 2014, 09:34:42 PM

Huge jump coming soon, 20% at least... Rockbox and s3 is coming..

They already have them running as they are testing them so it will probably be way lower Wink

No manufacturer can burn-in test their entire production batch at once. They would need access to a massive, massive datacenter just to temporarily test the new ASICs before shipping.

More likely they simply fill a smaller datacenter the machines that first come out of production, test them for a period of time, then ship them out when the next batch arrives for testing.

So when you think you're seeing jumps in network hashrate due to ASIC production, you're only seeing a small part of the total production that arrives for testing and then ships to customers in waves.

Or it could all just be lady luck. 3 days of 20% luck could have lead to the 25% increase and a week of bad lucky could have lead to the minimal increase. Certain pools are not willing to release it's hashing data so it's difficult to asses this.

xstr8guy

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1004

Glow Stick Dance!

Quote from: SirChiko on July 13, 2014, 06:44:55 AM

Quote from: Kimowa on July 12, 2014, 09:34:42 PM

Huge jump coming soon, 20% at least... Rockbox and s3 is coming..

They already have them running as they are testing them so it will probably be way lower Wink

No manufacturer can burn-in test their entire production batch at once. They would need access to a massive, massive datacenter just to temporarily test the new ASICs before shipping.

More likely they simply fill a smaller datacenter the machines that first come out of production, test them for a period of time, then ship them out when the next batch arrives for testing.

So when you think you're seeing jumps in network hashrate due to ASIC production, you're only seeing a small part of the total production that arrives for testing and then ships to customers in waves.

SirChiko

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Kimowa on July 12, 2014, 09:34:42 PM

Huge jump coming soon, 20% at least... Rockbox and s3 is coming..

They already have them running as they are testing them so it will probably be way lower Wink

ALToids

hero member

Activity: 519

Merit: 500

We just finished a cycle where people just took some miners offline (old Avalons, BFL, AM Blades, some S1s). If we added 20PH/s of new stuff and took off 10PH/s of old stuff, variance could make up for the rest.

If we see a sustained tapering of growth it would be nice, but I don't this explosion of growth is done just yet.

ranochigo

legendary

Activity: 2954

Merit: 4158

Quote from: Kimowa on July 12, 2014, 09:34:42 PM

Huge jump coming soon, 20% at least... Rockbox and s3 is coming..

Should highly depend on the shipping time and if they even ship. If there is a delay, the difficulty increase can be smaller.

Kimowa

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Huge jump coming soon, 20% at least... Rockbox and s3 is coming..

ranochigo

legendary

Activity: 2954

Merit: 4158

ASIC miners are switching off their hardware and kncminer stopped testing their ASICs and started shipping to people. People who preordered ASICs have waited for a long time and it hasn't come yet.

taipo

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Kia ora!

Supply of miners has not met demand. The Antminer S1 ended, the S2 turned out to be an overpriced disappointment, the S3 is yet to be delivered, and the Spondooley miners will come online sometime in August. Most other mining manufacturers failed to deliver either big enough batches, or deliver at all.

cozk

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 500

I believe its because the miners are massively overpriced.

R4v37

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

Quote from: PolarPoint on July 12, 2014, 05:54:13 PM

I think the word that mining will not ROI is spreading and more people are realising it first hand.

there'll be a limit when people will stop buying miners...
except u have unlimited money Cheesy

PolarPoint

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

I think the word that mining will not ROI is spreading and more people are realising it first hand.

SirChiko

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1000

Quote from: cozk on July 12, 2014, 05:38:13 PM

Last one was 25% and this one is 3%

Any theory ?

ASIC companies stopped testing their products and started shipping them.

cozk

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 500

Last one was 25% and this one is 3%

Any theory ?

Topic: Next diff increase 3% (in 50 minutes) (Read 1798 times)