Will it pay off in the long run? Probably not. Because:
Probably not, but I don't think it's a fair way to measure the success of these solo runs, it's safe to assume that most people will lose money gambling for a solo block, just like how most people lose money gambling in casinos or buying lottery tickets, it's only a fraction of those people end up making a huge amount of money compared to what they spend.
In the part you quoted, it doesn't mean that everyone has been joining the solo runs since 2015, someone might have joined in 2020, paid 0.001 BTC, and ended up with 0.1 BTC and that's it, someone else might have paid a total of 5 BTC and received nothing, this is how gambling simply works.
Now with respect to buying ordinary state/country lottery tickets, solo mining is more fun, you have the numbers to watch, unlike the ordinary lottery where the fun only lasts for a few minutes during the draw, also, it's a lot more transparent, a
president of some country can't magically win the lottery.
