I don't much believe in chart analysis, maybe that works for normal stock market, but to me the price of BTC is all about news/events, feelings (& manipulation). Especially for something that has a purely subjective value (that is, not a business with future buy-back plans & revenue sharing).
So I'd like to list key points from when the price was a little lower than the current one (let's say between the current price & the price it could still drop to, thus october to november), vs now. Just to get an idea of where it could go in a near future (because far future isn't taking much risk).
Feel free to comment or suggest important points.
It's just to be a little more objective than the usual "BTC forever", "BTC will never die" blind faith, which to be honest sometimes reminds me of the BCH worshippers.
Yesterday:
Positive
-beginning of recent bump in media attention & new investors
-predicted pumps due to forks
-the "10k before christmas" mentality
-(a bit later) CBOE & CME futures announcement, everyone expecting it to rise the price so much. <- this is IMHO the biggest mistake at that time, as it's not those futures that pumped the price so much, but the expectation, and it then dangerously stagnated once everyone realized nothing was happening.
-the perspective that one day the mass of senior investors will come from other markets, for long investments. Still valid today obviously, but I don't see that happening in the following months.
-BCH dominance still pretty high, ALTs hadn't pumped like crazy YET (even though months earlier the ETH had already threatened BTC)
-China ban having left more scars to ALTs than BTC which went back up pretty quickly in comparison. Yes I consider that a positive point, that people join back as fast as they left the boat.
Negative
-non-legit pumps & predictable/predicted dumps due to forks
-straight attack by BCH & media manipulation pro-BCH (now possibly over? Maybe not. BCH dipped quite a lot and we all know who scooped the dip).
Today:
Positive
-the lightning network. Even if it's not exactly necessary since no crypto is really used as a currency (& I don't even see the point), it will certainly have an impact. But that will be in many months.
-it has already dipped way deeper than after the China ban, so perhaps it is the bottom
-all ALTs are still fiat-valued according to BTC (but with more ETH or fiat-pairs appearing in exchanges, will that last?)
Negative
-the USDT case still not cleared up. Depending on the outcome, immediate pump or immediate crash. Doesn't even matter how much USDT really matters in the price of crypto, it's a huge red flag, people sell when they think everyone else is gonna sell.
-we now know how little the Bitcoin Futures really did (unless crash was partially due to those)
-BTC got its moment of fame, now a moment of infamy, very possibly a good thing for veteran investors, but not the general public
-weak hands who sold at a loss probably won't touch crypto ever again, and those who held are likely to be the first to sell once they get their money back
-after a dump, everyone thinks he will be less an idiot this time, & sell before the ATH
-ETH (friendly) threatening BTC dominance. Except it'd be way more legit than BCH or XRP, because it's in many pairs & ICO offers. NEO is itself threatening ETH's dominance in its domain, though.
-it has already dipped deeper than after the China ban, so it's gonna leave bigger scars. Sure, BTC has crashed more than that in its history, but less investors, higher volatility, and MtGox, that's not comparable. Also, the upper part of this crash wasn't abrupt at all, that's more scary IMHO.
-people have witnessed or participated in megapumps in ALTs, realizing how much more profit there was to make there. And I predict that the money may now move to pre-ICOs, until that too stops being profitable because there will be no one left to buy once they hit exchanges.
-more generally, loss in confidence. And I think the BTC is really based on that. Well, it was for me. I know the BTC since the beginning, technically it has hardly changed for me. But it's only in 2017 that I put money in it, for the only reason that it was getting widespread trust. Pretty much like gold, I don't think it has any other value, well at least not as a currency for the average asian, american, european Joe, only to people in shitty countries with shitty currencies, or for fraudsters (and hey, let's not forget BTC owes quite some of its value & fame to Silk Road). Which, granted, is value, except that BTC has many competitors as "just a currency" now.
-even some hodlers now considering selling to buy lower. And that's what I did, at least partially (at 10k), except I now have doubts about where the bottom is
But now, whatever the bottom is now or it's gonna dip deeper, the question is who is gonna bring the price to what it was? The whales who just got richer? They aren't gonna buy high. And the average Joe isn't likely to touch BTC for quite some time, perhaps for the next few months or years when this crash will be forgotten like the past ones.
What did I forget?
Also, those who believe the price is gonna get back to say, 20k, I would like to know your analysis on it. I can well imagine who is gonna buy, or already bought below 10k. But past 12k, perhaps 15k, who exactly is still gonna buy?
-not veteran investors who only buy dips
-not whales who only organise pump&dumps
So who do you predict will be buying BTC past 12k?
-daily cost averagers? Yeah, probably. I don't think that will have a huge impact, though
-newcomers? Nope, the ones who were ready for that, have already done just that, and most likely won't touch BTC with a 10-foot pole anymore.
Topic: Now vs pre-december (Read 86 times)
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