Topic: NXT TULLIPS - Why is NXT overpriced now? (Read 549 times)

NXT is pointing some attraction last time and many people started to buy some NXTs.

Despite the fact that NXT is not as innovative as it seems to be and its still more a ballyhoo than reality, there are some economical facts which are ignored.

Price of NXT is today a bit over 0.00007 BTC, this means you can buy 14000 NXTs for 1 BTC.
The market cap of NXT is now 56,683,632 USD. Bitcoin has now 10,279,956,400 bucks.

These are all well good known facts, nothing surprising.

There are 1000.000.000 NXT in circulation, comparing to 12mio BTC ever mined. This fact itself is not important at all, BUT very important if you look at other facts:

The ratio of market values seems to be 1:190, just by dividing Bitcoin market cap by NXT market cap. This is not too big ratio, if we assume the NXT has not ever launched, has not fully working wallet and its just a piece of speculation having nothing than the concept which MAY work. But still OK, ratio 1:190 is maybe an acceptable gamble and growth potential.

And now the ignored fact: This ratio is totally incorrect. The real ratio of market caps is...

between 1:10 and 1:50

A bit low if we assume the NXT is only startup with no experiences, no real trades, no adopters...

Just from one reason - Bitcoin doesnt have 1 billion market cap at all. Most bitcoins are forever lost or werent traded more than 1 year. At exchanges there are only hundreds or thousands bitcoins per hour circulating. We can only speculate how many bitcoins are "alive" but it wont be more than 25 percent of mined amount. So... 190 multiplied by 25 percent is... approx. 50.

Now we have the new ratio, 1:50. Almost all NXT are alive and not lost forever at the moment, so the number of NXTs is still 100M.

But thats not all. NXT price is artifically overpriced by one more factor which will fade away with the time. All NXTs due to full premine at launch were owned by few authorities posing a trust. The price is just monopolistic. Due to the rules of monopoly, every monopolistic price is much higher than market price. This monopolistic price will get market price at the moment when more NXTs will be owned by public. There will be months or years while the stackholders still will inflate NXTs by melting down their huge holdings and scalp all newly incoming cash-flow.

So there are no cheap NXTs but only NXT tullips expensive as hell at this stage. I have complained once over NXT price but stackholders and sheeps declined my opinion, so had to explain it a bit more by using logic now.

NXT for today price is NOT like 1 BITCOIN when it costed 0.01USD.

The real price should be many times lower now, sheeps will be very surprised when price will move some time nowhere or down instead of up until the market will get healthy and the bubble pops or gets filled by tons of newly incoming investors and sheeps.
When everybody holds something from only one reason - waiting for growth, there always comes a bubble into existence, with capitulation phase and dump after popping, nothing else.

Yeah and one more thing - all this predictions are valid for POSITIVE case, in NEGATIVE case there will be no zero-rise phase, no bubble, no popping, there will be just few new millionaires at Bahamas and nothing more.

I personally maybe will buy few NXTs after first NXT bubble in capitulation phase. Awaiting it 3 months after the full launch when first people will realize that bitcoins spent for NXTs were not pumped into NXT value but only to the wallets of preminers.

Sorry for my clumsy english, not my mother tongue, thanks.