Topic: Old coins on the move (Read 1877 times)

This seems that big whales are now trying to either get out with their coins or are preparing to start some real price action on the go once they decide to either f*ck the markets or make it spike...

I think the people that forgot about their coins were waken up once the price reached $1000 and the media was heavily reporting about it. Nowadays every one knows what they have stored away for years. It's not a surprise anymore.

I think some people forget the old coins. But if I see the old coins are also growing.

So we should not underestimate the old coins.

Interesting analysis. Did you apply any filters to the age of BDD? There are several available:

Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Week) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 week.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Month) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 month.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-month
Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Year) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 year.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

I'd be most interested in minimum age of 1 year. It makes the most recent movements seem more pronounced.

This is exactly why Monero and Aeon will be the future of cryptocurrency, and not Bitcoin. 
 
Everyone deserves financial privacy. 

pfffft...

'they' start the buying from Joe Public down the button, then 'they' sell to Joe Public up the top...then they sell some more, then some more, and then even more...eventually, Joe Public panics, and sells 'them' all his BTC, which 'they' then start to sell back up top.

Whole market is a fucking racket and 'they' are only it to make a fast buck, just like all the rest of us are.....difference is, 'they' have all the cards up their sleeves, and we are just fumbling around 2n guessing what the fuck 'they' are going to do next.

As for $1K target...yep....could see it happen, as very top of parabolic move. If I am holding BTC when it hits $1K, I will be selling hand over fist.

Yeah we are having some consolidation right now. I agree with OP someone is selling a lot of coins. However someone is also buying that's why we are not seeing a big crash.

SOMEONE IS BUYING PEOPLE. THAT'S WHY WE ARE NOT SEEING A BIG CRASH.

After this whale has finished their selling and we are out of the consolidation we are gonna see a big move up to $1k I predict

I understand your perspective, but since I'm putting significant money on the line (>>6 BTC) I need to have solid evidence, not just eyeballing charts.

The evidence over the past year is mixed:  a slight downward bias, probably not tradeable given spreads and exchange fees.

If it's enough for you, well, good- that's what makes a market.  I prefer to wait for the fat pitch.

The chart that OP posted, is a chart showing great spikes that occured in the last month, where BTC that had spent a lot of time in stasis, started being sent between wallets. Within a day or two, BTC exchanges started crashing.

Then show the evidence for a statistically significant relationship.

I provided data and evidence, and the best you can muster is "Whatever".

dumping now doesn't make much sense if the coins have been stored for that long, why not waiting a bit more. The sentiment has changed to positive, thus, soon price should go higher. As written above, probably cold storage movements.

Whatever.

I looked at the spikes on that chart, looked at when they occured, and looked at what happened to Bitcoin shortly thereafter and I seen a very distinct relationship.

The fact is that a spike in BDD does not correlate strongly with a subsequent decline in price.

Here are the instances where BDD > 20MM over the past year:


Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
21-Feb-15   27080982   245.66   252.98   3.0%
11-Mar-15   21316459   293.29   265.85   -9.4%
23-Apr-15   52616145   235.48   235.13   -0.1%
09-Aug-15   21986569   265.42   257.47   -3.0%
24-Aug-15   24138383   213.24   230.94   8.3%
26-Aug-15   23636756   228.84   230.68   0.8%
07-Nov-15   22926715   387.38   331.90    -14.3%
08-Jan-16   47974258   447.04   391.62   -12.4%
23-Jan-16   47285851   388.50      
                    average % change      -3.4%
                               % down   63%


This is even including the most recent instance, which may be an outlier.


Also, here are the instances where BDD <350K:

Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
04-Feb-15   303016   222.56   221.99   -0.3%
08-Feb-15   174903   223.50   243.99   9.2%
09-Mar-15   312469   287.48   290.88   1.2%
14-Mar-15   312975   284.21   257.83   -9.3%
26-Mar-15   204256   251.98   252.44   0.2%
29-Mar-15   337273   244.05   257.03   5.3%
19-Apr-15   224641   225.72   218.42   -3.2%
10-May-15   308217   239.35   235.78   -1.5%
12-Sep-15   321233   235.13   230.71   -1.9%
13-Sep-15   341842   229.86   230.20       0.1%
27-Sep-15   314624   232.85   239.47   2.8%
            
                    average % change      -0.9%
                               % down   50%

So maybe we should be cautious when BDD is small relative to average.  The average price change during the subsequent 7 days is -0.9%.


 

besides the laught each time, you see that i was again right, the price is recovering in a shy way, like we have seen this many time

why still anyone think that 350 will be the new high and we find ourselves suddenly, below it

there is no reason for a dump now, really no reason when you think about the fact that the last price was achieved very slowly, not like the 1200 run up, people should really stop comparing with the past

if the owners of these coins would really dump these coins, then the price would easily tank to $200 and probably much lower than that. i think they are just moving their coins for security reasons.

So that's why we're back at sub-$400 now eh? 

Well if that's the case then it'll probably recover by this week or the next.

The price spiked to 500, then later to 465, then recently 420. The highs have been getting lower since November and big holders who have patiently waited for it to go above 500 again might have lost their patience. They might have decided this is the best price they will get in the short term.

I think they want to make their coin in cold wallet more secure after seeing cryptsy cold wallet getting hacked. 
Dump at this point only cause a big loss for them and if they sell now definately they should be some noobs.

You would have to be pretty rich to buy a lot of coins at once. These guys were probably early investors and want to keep their coins safe.

If this is true, they could dump coins in the exchange to create a market crash along with added Sell orders. Once the market stabilized itself again with the new low price, they'll start buying btcs again. So dumping coins is not far off plus it will definitely benefit anyone who knows what'll going to happen.

Well then Amph the Optimistic Sheep...

Lets have a little look at the different spikes in BTC movement (anything over 15K), and what the market done around or after those times.....


Prior to 10th August...we had the Log average give 21K days destroyed........August 14th, Bitcoin flash crashes down to $162 on Finex.

Just after 24th August, a double spike, Bitcoin corrects from $230 down to $195 on Finex.

Around 10th September, a spike of 16K days destroyed...market remains 'flat' albeit trending down over the following few days.

Next big movement was on 2nd Nov, around 20K days destroyed...on 4th November, market tanks from $500 - $380

Then on the 9th Nov, another big movement of BTC around 23K this time......10th November, market tanks from $380 - $300

10th Jan Huge movement of BTC   47K.......12th Jan, market tanks from $450, bottoming out at $350

and now.....on the 25th Jan, another 47K Days Destroyed spike.......

.......and Amph says 'Nothing to Worry About'.



LOL!


Amph...the gift that keeps on giving!

Who cares? Maybe they're not allowed to cold store in grandma's pussy any more, maybe they accidentally flashed private keys while jerking off on Skype at the local priest. No one's business but theirs. The only movement worth observation would be Satoshi's coins.

I agree with you that no one is selling this big quantity in one time, because dumping them in one block is a big lose for the owner, If s/he wants to sell them s/he would sell them in small quantities in several days so s/he will not affect the price in a bad way

I doubt that they are selling their coins, they are probably just moving their coins from 1 account to another.

If these coins were really moved out of their old wallets to be dumped, then I would suspect the exchanges to let the price crash significantly before these coins post. Some exchanges have a hidden agenda and do insider trading. I think it's more likely that it is a large mining pool. Only they have that much coins. Or perhaps an exchange that is spreading their cold wallet coins. Other than that no one else has this many coins.

i don't think that they are dumping, why dumping now when the value is recovering, and thus coins already seen the 1200 ath, i think they will wait untill that point is reached again before even thinking to dump their stash

Cold storage movement are very likely. There were some posts last week of 300,000+ bitcoin transactions.

If those coins had been there for a while, they would easily reach those amounts of coin days.

if you filter days destroyed for only those coins with a minimum age of one year, it looks like a lot of old coins moved recently:

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

An exchange accessing a cold wallet or someone preparing to dump perhaps