As a commodity, bitcoin is a special case and we need a bit more assessment, I do agree, but intuitively speaking, it does not seem to me as a totally new class of commodity and we don't need to invent a new political economic point of view to understand it.
Historically when gold became adopted as a middle of exchange, more people tried to mine it and caused it to become much harder to produce, it increased its value according to LTOV. This increase in value was a direct consequence of the increase in its production cost while the latter was a result of the surge in demand as a result of its increasing adoption as a medium of exchange. For bitcoin we have a same scenario.
I think here you're basically right, but utility is influencing in the "demand"/"social need" part of the equation. More so if we want to make predictions about the long-term/mid-term price evolution. This was also the reason I mentioned CHNcoin: A production cost increase in one moment (because miners increase hashrate dedicated to that particular coin) does not mean that the coin cannot lose its value almost completely if utility goes to zero.
Of course, without utility there is no demand and without demand society needs no work to supply anything so there is no value. In labor theory of value the 'average socially necessary work' term can be interpreted properly to serve this. Society needs something (because of its utility) hence has to produce it by work and it is the source of the
value of that thing which is conventionally considered a
commodity there after.
Both conditions (demand and work to supply) should hold for a thing to be a commodity with a value . Air is not a commodity, people desperately need it because of its vitaal utilities but it has no value unless it is processed somehow e.g. refined and charged into a capsule to be used in healthcare, etc.
Focusing on the utility and the demand has two bad side effects:
1- It distracts us from the fact that commodities are a product of labor and eventually (few centuries later may be) the current ridiculous distribution of wealth should be addressed somehow.
2- It is just the hard way to describe value by demand or utility. Right, you can describe value anyhow but not all the hypothetical proposals are as simple and useful and efficient as saying : A commodity's value is the socially necessary labor for producing it.
My favorite approach to quantify and estimate "utility" is "the size of the ecosystem that holds a stake in Bitcoin". That means, basically, to calculate the base of Bitcoin users, with Bitcoin enterprises (exchanges, payment processors, merchants accepting it as a currency for a substantial part of their offers, etc.) and "private" users being the most important sub-groups. From both groups one would have to also estimate the "stake" they hold in Bitcoin.
We can even use LTOV to calculate the estimation:
- socially needed labor in Bitcoin enterprises
- part of the labor used by investors to buy Bitcoin
As the size of the ecosystem and the labor "contained" in it adds more inertia to the equation, I think this approach can be useful to do rough estimations of the mid-to-long term price evolution.
The hard part, however, is to quantify the user base. While we could use market capitalization of the bigger Bitcoin enterprises (Bitpay, Bitmain, Bitfinex etc.) as a base for a part of the estimation, there are several problems with that - one being the fact that some of these companies also "do business" with altcoins, and the other, that there is a big black market accounting for a big part of the Bitcoin ecosystem (Silk Road and successors).
You are right, it is really hard and hence not scientific!
Science is about elegance and simplicity and being straightforward. Estimation of user base and demand is hard and applicable in short term, trading practices. In long term, existential discussions we better focus on work.
We need both, merchants need sales predictions but strategists and designers need existential assessments. I personally don't care about price, not that much. I'm seeking for a rough understanding of bitcoin value to resist PoS temptations
and to challenge accusations about bitcoin being a wasteful system, ...
Security of bitcoin is not measurable by network hashrate directly, it is based on game theory and rational behavior of attackers and the equilibrium between threats and security measures including (and not limited to) total hashrate of miners.
[...] I would suggest something like a market cap/hashrate index for security of bitcoin and I think such an index is somehow more stable and would be more useful to understand how bitcoin is secure and why I don't think the utility of bitcoin has changed considerably through time.
I think you have a valid point here. However there are two different attacks to consider:
- simple double-spend attack (with the intention to scam a merchant or exchange, like the BTG 51% attack)
- "destructive" big double-spend/short-selling attack (with the intention to bring the price of the coin down)
The cost/possible profit equation of the second kind of attack is clearly related to market cap, because as you say, market cap influences the profit expectations. But the danger arising from the first one, the simple double-spend attack, is basically related to the "majority attack cost", which mean the cost to get, for a short period of time, 51% of the hashrate of the network. We clearly saw some weeks ago that Bitcoin Gold is less secure than Bitcoin, for example, which is, in my opinion, directly related to the hashrate differences.
So the "security index" would have to take into account both attack scenarios. That means basically that, in my opinion, Bitcoin's security is higher when the "51% attack cost" increases, but less steep as expected only taking into account this indicator, as market cap has also an influence.
Short range attacks can be mitigated by waiting for few more confirmations. Totally ruining a coin by a destructive long run attack that rewrites a longer chain is what we should consider as the most important factor, imo. On the other hand a successful short range 51% attack on bitcoin destroys it value because it causes sharp drops both in price and network hashrate as a result. So, one might consider a hybrid more sophisticated index.
I disagree also that other "utility" factors have not changed, like merchant acceptance. However, since 2013 merchant acceptance growth has been much less steep than price, and Bitcoin even has lost some merchants in 2017 despite the bull run. On the other hand, a lot of new markets have appeared, like Venezuelan, African and Asian markets.
I'm aware that they say "acceptance" is a utility for money. I have not come to this subject at all: money. Adopting gold as money, medium of exchange, was simple. Everybody accepted gold, gold's utility was not because of its acceptance, the latter was because of the first! It was hard to mine/produce, easy to keep, transfer, divide, ... so it was accepted as the medium of exchange, money. On the contrary, fiat, the fake money, was about acceptance from the first beginning.
Bitcoin follows gold path but not as a simple store of value (like what some advocates falsely suggest) but as a money, acceptance is not a utility neither for gold nor for bitcoin. Fluctuations in bitcoin acceptance is because of the transient phase we are in. Once this phase has fade out, accepting bitcoin as a medium of exchange is a natural consequence of its utility as a digital gold.
However, I would be very interested in the "market cap/attack cost" index you've proposed. Maybe I'll find time to calculate it at least for the top-10 PoW coins.
I'd appreciate it and please try a bit more sophisticated options as well. No ideas right now, but I feel my suggestion to be kinda naive in this stage.