Topic: One Bitcoin May Be Worth $1 Billion by 2038, Fidelity Says (Read 142 times)

There are more and more predictors of Bitcoin growth every year. It's like a viral game where every analyst makes their own calculations and promises the most amazing Bitcoin prices every time.
We can also say that this or that will happen, but why is there still no one who could confidently determine the price that will happen in the near future with a hundred percent guarantee? We live in such a time when our technologies and events are changing very quickly that it is simply impossible to know what will happen to the world in a short period of time, let alone decades.

Boys, we are the new wealthy elite.

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In all seriousness though, somebody has really been chainsmoking at Fidelity. I think it's more likely that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by that timeframe, possibly several millions of dollars, but probably not $1 billion unless that is also accompanied with rampant inflation that among other things makes it possible for people to be trillionaires and that kind of stuff.

The most beautiful thing about long-term prediction is that you can safely lie. If he said that Bitcoin will reach 10,000 within a year or two, everyone will be a timer to prove a lie or sincerity, but when you say after 15 years, a lot of water will run behind the bridge, and no one will remember this bet. The events and changes in this world and the madness that we have witnessed during the last three years made the impossible possible, but no one predicts what will happen within 5 years, let alone 15 years.

if this happens, it is unlikely that the value of one billion dollars will be the same as the current billion dollars, because the rich will have tens of trillions of wealth.

Yes, really based on how the dollar will be in the next 15 years, will still be the most dominant fiat or China or Russia overtaking it.

But in any case, we all know that bitcoin is going to be worth in the future, and by the time its 2038, almost all bitcoin could have been mined already, hence the price going up dramatically and all this predictions might happen regardless on how the US dollar will depreciate. I think bitcoin's value will go up as adoption and there could be countries, embracing it like El Salvador does.

I think the last part of the sentence is the key. The depreciation of the dollar in 15 years is going to be such that $1B probably won't buy even 10% of what you can buy today with the same amount. If you add to that that by that time the reward per mined block will be 0.390625 Bitcoin, we see that on both sides of the equation the most likely scenario is that price will tend to rise sharply.

I do believe that the data available is not enough to make a relatively accurate price prediction. Most organizations are using these models to pump their bags at the end of the day, so it is kinda stupid if we expect them to guess it correctly all the time. If anything, I'd be very cautious when a prediction like this starts to go around the market. Who knows, maybe they want to dump on the next few days/weeks or so. I'd rather stick to other analyses that focus on whether Bitcoin or crypto will bring value and whether they can sustain it or not, instead of price predictions that are almost guaranteed to be wrong most of the time.

And if S2F models fails in the last bull run, what makes other modelling different though? That is the big question and so far again, we can look at the past and extrapolate data and then come up with our own prediction which might be wrong or correct along the way. But it doesn't mean that we have found the holy grail though, there are a lot of factors that we need to consider and at least we should be putting 100% in this kind of predictions.

By chance what if this predictions become true? then good for us, and for those who continue to accumulate and see this modelling as a solid basis. But if the price prediction didn't occur then I guess it will have the same faith as S2F modelling, "lost in obscurity".

The models are just extrapolation of past performance into the future, but practice shows that sooner or later performance changes. It already happened with Bitcoin during the last cycle - the relative increase between 2021 bull market and 2017 was only 250%, compared to the 2013 and 2017 which was 2000%. This is why Plan B 100k prediction failed - it was just an extrapolation.

I can also make an extrapolation of these diminishing relative market tops and conclude that Bitcoin will reach a plateau in a few more cycles, because the next top increases will be even smaller relatively to the previous ones. But who knows, maybe Bitcoin will break this pattern too and show some fantastic gains similar to the early days.

I don't know if bitcoin will ever reach such a market cap, but I'm just hoping that by 2038, just a bitcoin price above $100k would be great, let alone other fantastical possibilities. Anyway, it's still a long time, and speculation about the problem will continue to happen every year, but I don't feel the slightest regret when I know about the journey of bitcoin. Even if it's really just a dream, I think it's doable, but one tenth is enough. The future is still very long, and no one knows in advance what bitcoin and the fate of the dollar will be, but hopefully bitcoin will open a new page in the history of money.

Until we get there we will see these kind of speculations, although it's an impossible feat for Bitcoin I think it has the potential that it may come true. Imagine 15 years from now and you regret selling those satoshis that may worth 10 cents that's really something. I wonder if dollar is still the dominant reserve currency at that time as well.

I seriously doubt that it will ever be worth that much. It's one thing to predict a million dollars and another to predict a billion.
If Fidelity thinks it's 1 billion in 15 years, this must mean that it's going to be at least 100k by 2025, so this would mean 4x in less than 2 years, right? So Fidelity should be buying like crazy at this price. If I knew an asset is going to go 4x in 2 years and at least 10x in 8 years, to eventually reach over 100x, I'd be all in right now because there's no better deal you can ever get in your life.
If they aren't going all in, then maybe the prediction is there to raise awareness and interest in bitcoin? Maybe Fidelity would be happy with 40k right now and that's all they wait for?

I think it’s probably easier to justify the prediction than for it to come true. Sure, you can look at expected growth rates and dollar printing or you could extrapolate from previous fractal-like performance… In reality though, it would take a massive amount of usage for Bitcoin to hit those levels. I’m not sure the world will be able to move so quickly.

It's always the same. People who could buy now are waiting for 12k because some dumb analysts are still standing by their predictions, but if we fall to 12k they'll be in such a state of panic that they won't buy anything. They also won't buy now because they'll need a strong confirmation the bull market has started.

When we reach 80k they'll say it's too expensive and they'll rather wait for another bear market. Then it will go to 200k or something and we'll start another cycle and those people who are out now will say, "ok it's time for a 20k bottom because I say so" and they'll keep waiting for it until the 2028 halving.

I'd love to see a million by 2030, but I doubt we'll even hit 500k by then.

Omen this prediction is fucking high and we pray that we should realized the price even before that time. If really bitcoin reached that amount, for the poor to get bitcoin like the way it is will be very hard. By that time 2038 many of us that are in this forum is gone to meet the heavenly father so we might not see it happen. Everyone predict any amount the price of bitcoin will be in the next few years to come. But predicting bitcoin as $1 trillion dollar is like children dreaming to buy cars, build house and have enough money when they are still in primary schools. Because at that stage the dreams can't be realistic but it is futuristic.

They're all just hyping it. Although they also believe BTC to be a rise-only in the long period of time. They all fail to predict the exact price and this $1B is way too much.

We're gonna be shouting for joy already even if the price hit $100k months after halving. And institutions like Fidelity will already be ready for the next years of bears.

We know that on this speculative market on which we are really that free on throwing up our speculative approach towards the price on which it wont really be shocking for these numbers to come out. Come to think that

$1M/coin is already that impossible. How much more on 1B? Im not really that going against about that positivity but lets just really be that realistic on where numbers could be possibly be put up and not something that would be close in our dreams. Realistic approach is always been needed because being that too optimistic would really be leading you into these kind of numbers on which it would really be that a bad idea
because even in our life time or even on future years to come, there's no way on reaching out those numbers.

Yes, no one can stop you on mentioning those numbers since its our own opinion and its none others business but you would really be making yourself laughable basing up on what you do claim.

That is a very high number, the only way in which this could be achieved is if the dollar went through a period of massive inflation, and in that case one bitcoin for one billion dollars will become a meaningless metric as we will need to know how much that bitcoin buys before knowing if bitcoin went up in purchasing power or not, after all if at that time bitcoin were to buy only a loaf of bread then we will know bitcoin went down in purchasing power despite its value going up.

Any asset can have the projection that one wants to boast, so Bitcoin is the best candidateone to brag about it, due to its percentage growth in recent years, constantly makes one dream.

But in this case, financial logic is break point, be careful that the mathematical probability under certain parameters allows this type of prediction.

Whatever the price it may have in 2038, the incredible thing will be to understand that we are millionaires now, but it only takes being in the past tense...

I will be lucky to still be alive and healthy at that time, so I will be happy even if 10% of it comes true, (100 million), because that means my current BTC is enough to be a millionaire already lol.

But I guess it's not wrong to "hope" he is even 1% right (10 million), but I think gold, which is ATH now, and not as big in market cap, is probably the asset to beat. I bet gold is 10x as much in 2038?

The price of bitcoin and the circulatory supply determines the price of bitcoin.

By 2038, over 20.5 billion BTC would have been mined. If the price of bitcoin at the time is $1 billion, the marketcap would be $20,522,300,000,000,000

$20,000,000,000,000,000 is more than trillion, it is $20 quadrillion.

The highest asset in marketcap today which is gold is $12.965 trillion in marketcap.

Anyone that says bitcoin will have more than hundreds of trillion marketcap by $2038 do not know what he or she is talking about because it is not possible.

It is easy to achieve small marketcap. The higher the marketcap becomes, the higher the money needed to achieve more marketcap which makes it harder to achieve.

Although the value of the dollar keeps depreciating year after year due to the plentiful money that is being printed, I don't think there will be a solution to that any time soon; rather, it will keep getting worse. This is not only for the dollar; most countries local currencies are depreciating greatly as well. With all that, I think that in the next 15 years, which is 2038, the price of Bitcoin will really be very high, like above $500k to $1 million, but I don't yet feel convinced that Bitcoin can cross $1 billion in 2038. But it wouldn't be a bad thing if the price got there because of the profit it will make on an individual's investment, and with the low value of the dollar in purchasing power, we're going to need as many dollars as possible to just get a few things at the grocery store.

I think we could all enjoy this prediction coming true.


Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity forecasts Bitcoin to reach $1 billion two decades from now, shortly after an earlier $100 million prediction for 2035.

One Bitcoin may be equivalent to $1 billion by 2038, according to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. Timmer backed up his assertion with a 4-hour BTC/USD chart that combined the stock-to-flow model with his demand model. In Timmer’s words:

“Metcalfe’s Law holds that, as the number of its users grows linearly, a network’s value (or, by inference, the bitcoin price) grows geometrically.”
The implication is that the utility value of Bitcoin will outgrow its operational network. This operational network encompasses buyers, sellers, exchanges, and ATMs. In addition, it also includes participating retailers, both directly and indirectly, and some leading organizations such as the Dallas Mavericks and AT&T. Rounding out this network are a few insurers, several banks, and a multitude of small businesses.

Timmer’s own demand model grows very slowly in proportion to the stock-to-flow combination supply model. The asset management director’s demand model predicts that BTC will reach $1 million by 2030. On the other hand, the stock-to-flow combination model forecasts a price of between $1 million and $10 million by 2030.

Jurrien Timmer’s demand model seems to historically represent the floor or the bottom of the price. The stock-to-flow model appears to be a better fit for the peak. However, the gap between both models widens significantly after 2030. One of the suggested reasons for the widening gap after 2030 is the change in the value of the dollar. It should be noted, however, that this reasoning is not set in stone.

Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Billion Because of Changes in the Dollar Value

Timmer stated that the value of the dollar changes in relation to other assets. He further pointed out that $1 invested in stocks in the 18th century is worth about $4 billion of today’s money. Going by this assumption, $1 million today could be worth $1 billion in twenty years’ time.

Changes in the dollar’s value, especially depreciation over several decades, render the same amount with less purchasing power. This is why huge sums back then appear less by today’s standards. For instance, $1 million could purchase a lot of significant things a few decades ago. To put this in perspective, reasonably higher-end houses in the US cost between $20,000 and $50,000. The same $1 million may not suffice for the same class of houses today.

There is an increasing number of billionaires across the globe today. Some observers even believe that we may see the first trillionaire in this lifetime. The same applies to organizations, with several companies now passing the $1 trillion market cap valuation.

Fidelity had previously pegged BTC to hit $100 million by 2035 using the same stock-to-flow model. Jurrien Timmer also made those predictions back then. As untested and uncertain Timmer’s predictions are, he is not the only one with such lofty forecasts. Deutsche Bank also forecasts that Bitcoin will dominate by 2030.

https://www.coinspeaker.com/bitcoin-worth-1-billion-2038-fidelity/