Topic: One more leg down (Read 709 times)

I don't understand where you got this value of 23k from. Now almost everyone expects bitcoin to go down and there will be no recovery this year, but the market always works against expectations. Of course I dont exclude that bitcoin can go down to previous ATH because that usually happens when there is a bear market, but too many people are expecting that now.

We are not expecting a recovery this year, the price could still go down as what is said in the beginning of this thread, one more leg down before we can finally see a good bounce.

Good if you have put your buy/sell orders already, it's just a matter of time before this can be fulfilled. So you need patience here. As for another leg down, yes, this is very possible, perhaps late this year we might see it goes down hard again at $23k levels. So heads up for everyone to look for this price and then take that opportunity.

Thats not an unreasonable take but there are no absolute limits to price action and quite simply not every price, every day or week is accurate sometimes its noise.     There are outside outlier prices recorded on low volume amounts and generally this action is discarded automatically as insignificant, on some days of the year there is so much fear and upset the erratic prices will register with enough volume to show as normal.   Thats when we can get a bullish pin, a sharp spike down that recovers.   We can trade below 20k, does it matter beyond that day is more of a question.
   I do wonder about this prior 2017 high because it was cast in the midst of a transaction backlog, the liquidity from real users was reduced.  I wont be as worried as normal if we do need to test beyond 200 week or even 2019 highs despite appearing to be especially extreme.   As always its going to be hard to judge calmly in the noise if this should occur.
  
If dollar were ever to fall off its perch and its appearing nothing close to that right now, but if that was happening all prices would become unreliable at that time.   Great opportunity and chaos really, it would be destructive but market upset or disorderly markets rely more on personal judgement and attributable worth people can ascertain, do not make the mistake of believing every story broadcast to be perfectly founded or every price correct beyond that short term moment.

The market has not yet recovered until now, but who are used to Cryptocurrencies, so this is normal, I'm waiting for the right time to buy bitcoin again because the opportunity to drop below $ 30k is very large like a few days ago, and in some exchanges I have already Install $ 28500 to buy and put a price of $ 32K to sell.

The only reason why I think bitcoin could fall below 20k and generally break the crazy stock2flow model is that the world is on the verge of a global crisis. Bitcoin hasn't faced that yet, which is why its chart is always upwards. But this time it might break, but I hope bitcoin will prove to be the best.

I don't think it will, but the weight of percentage is there...

ATH on past ATH keeps getting smaller in magnitude. At the same time, the severity of the floor from ATH does seem to dampen little by little... but the last floor was 85% of the ATH. For us to hit a floor of 20k is a pullback of less than 70%.

I'd never gamble on Bitcoin not pulling back that far.

Of course I'm real happy if we never break old ATH and stick to the course of that side of history.

still June is struggling mate but lets not lose our hopes because its been 3 months now that the market is showing this kind of bad movement and the 3rd quarter seems to be having a surprise , but at least try not to be affected of the coming bear because no matter what? it is our funds that we are entrusting to this market and we need to let it stops for at least years to wait for the halving season to bring us all happy ATH  .

That's much better to hear if they admit that it was also their fault not only the market but like you said, we aren't forced here so the market is innocent no matter what happens to our funds. The market only displays information and it isn't the one that creates the price but it was the humans (the manipulators mostly) since they have a larger fund than the normal individual.

There are changes on the months that you mentioned most especially in April but for you maybe it was not big enough, that's why you consider it as normal. 35k is easy. We have been on this price before so expect that we can be on that price again.

Supposedly they blame themselves first before blaming the market. And in fact, they are not forced to invest in crypto but it was their choice.

April-May, for these two months we haven't seen any changes in price, Bitcoin is still in the range between $28k - $31k.

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Do we possibly see it up at least $35k? Or is it the same trend we are still seeing?
Well, I hope this June could have seen something new and positive news but yes, we can't expect that much.

If i am not mistaken , Bitcoin fall down to below 20k how many times in 2018 and even harder in 2020 March when the price  drops low to 4k level.
but what if this price did not come? so what about their investments ? they will not add another amount in their folio ?
people wanted to see what they wanted to happen and if they fail they blame market so we must not give them importance in that matter.

The same thing that we say bitcoin is going to reach $100k in 2021. Meaning it's really hard to predict the price movement.


Probably, it will capitulation if we indeed reach the last ATH of $19k in this bear market. And it might be the floor price.. Yes, it could be the worst thing that could happen to us, and we should be ready by it at least so that it won't be that hard to take it and flip it on the other side and make it positive by buying at that price.

What makes you guys think we can go below the last ATH of 20k? This has never happened in the history of Bitcoin.

Also, many traders are apparently waiting to buy the dip at 23k as there's some strong support from a moving average somewhere around that area. Last time people were waiting to buy a similar dip at 1k USD, the price bounced back before they were able to do it.

People tend to see the situation as worse than it is in a bear market and better than it really is in bull market.

Exactly. When the month of May candle closed above $30,000, I thought we are safe already but look now, Bitcoin is having a hard time staying above $30,000.
If ever we will have another leg down, I am negative this time, I am expecting to visit the $20,000 level again or much worst is below that.
But I am not hoping that will happen.

Weekly bar is a pin seems very likely at present, like when you step on it not a nice thing to see on the chart for people hoping of an immediate rise.   Its a reversal but how important Im not sure yet, so long as we stay above 28200 roughly I think we are on repeat once again.  
  If we trade below 28k on multiple 4hr bars then I would guess we accelerate downwards properly rather then this quicksand we've been sinking in coming close to a month.  @34k is a declining 50 day average, soon it'll fill the sky overhead and crushing us towards a conclusion.   Recent highs was capped by monthly average

Hopefully it will not be the case though, but who knows, maybe at the end of the week, speculators are going to short bitcoin again.


China is really a big market, admit it or not, although bitcoin mining has shift somewhere else, Chinese still has a huge impact on the market.


Right, if at least this week will be green candle, then we would have broken the record. If I'm not mistaken, it's about 9 week of having a red candle, not good indicator, although this could be expected in a bear market.

We got a nice rally today and most people are already calling the bottom. Many of the indicators do point to a bottom however it’s hard to tell if we are actually reversing or this is nothing but a dead cat bounce.

Most of the rally is due to China reopening with the stock leading the way. Stock market was closed today but futures were open and it had a huge rally day.

If we finish the week green then I can see further upside but if we finish bear then it’s nothing but a dead cat bounce.

True.

We have been through 28k to 31k sideways for multiple times now ... and we might going for it once again in the next few days.
We won't surprised , we prepared.
Till there is a huge boost to jump or a huge scandal to drop bitcoin to the death... we are doing just fine at the current level .

at least you  know what are you talking in this matter mate? bitcoin price had just grow to 30 today , but in the previous week the value is below 30k so what are you saying that the price will not drop below that level?

maybe in any minute now the bitcoin movement will again go sideways and we will be below that start again lol.

so better be ready or else you will be left behind longing for that high that won't come true .

But two days ago I still saw that the price of bitcoin was at $28 thousand and lasted for several days.
But now I see the price of bitcoin has gone up again to the price of $ 30 thousand and that is a sign that there will be another price increase in the next few days and of course it will happen.
For those who bought it yesterday for $28, they now have a profit of around 20%.

all of that cannot be separated from mere predictions and the possibility that it could happen as they have analyzed. but the reality is not as imagined by them so that their analysis is considered a failure. but I think bitcoin will continue to stay above $30k, won't drop below $30k so the opportunity to buy underfoot won't happen again.

Technical analyses are always guesses. I notice that there are technical analysts, so many of them in fact, whose optimism always prevails no matter the market. I don't know though if they are really optimistic or they're simply creating hype or FOMO. It is very possible they're simply trying to make people calm, continue to hodl, or even buy in the middle of the bear market. It's always like this with a lot of people. They're always bullish. They always see good things in the charts.

We can break up from recent sideways action if BTC proves itself above the slight decline we've had recently in price.   The lowest prices have resembled a flat base but the highest prices have declined a bit , if that decline should be broken then I presume some relief rally upwards occurs and so greater aspirations still further.
  Highest price 7 days ago was 30666, really quite a close target.  Trade above that, hold for a day and see if it develops at all.   These last 3 daily bars have been green hence I watch this further as a counter trend.

Those who feel that they are trapped usually bought at highs and then the price unexpectedly dips and stays there for a while. Buying at highs is not a problem as long as we can be able to hodl and wait for the price exceeds our buying point. Bear can bring sadness for those who only want bulls and maybe they miss every bull that comes because they are greedy and want more price increases before they sell their coins.

It is not bad to sell as long as you know that you can earn some profit already. Maybe there is one more leg down before we finally see this market rise consistently but it's fine if there were more leg downs to come.

and that is what most people here must understand because if you will not pay attention to others opinion then what is the sense of being here in this forum ? because this is for sharing and this is for exchanging beliefs and Idea for us all to gain profit un our investing.
who can tell? what i understand is when the price drops that Low meaning we need to buy more , but if the price climb high then better to sell , so that is scenarios we must understand .

you will never get trapped if you are investing the funds that you can afford to wait for long term because we knew that bitcoin always recovered though sometimes this took months or even Year.
bear is not always bringing sadness because there are many here that wanted this to come for their accumulating more and more cryptos.
so best to know what you are doing and never just let your intention fails because of dumping market, be ready for what to come.

Op,  I don't think they're stupid , it's called speculation everyone is entitled to their opinion on any given subject matter.
When it comes to the money market , trading and investment anything is possible.
Question......
Would you foretell we would have gotten to $24k ?, looking at how everyone was saying that 30k would be buttom for BTC.
This is why I say that the market is reactive and not predictive , change with the current changing market conditions.

It's interesting to note though how many red candles we have seen in the past weeks? Is it 7 or 8? lost count already, but one thing is for sure, we are still not even half of the year and we have seen the price going below $30k. It this pattern continues, we might see another leg down or capitulation before the end of the year and it might not be really good.

I agree that there's more legs down than they usually predict, but they really like this term. Some say another "capitulation candle" some say another leg down" some say another breakdown, or another red candle. Now there are also people who say we could have another one to 23k and then someone will come and say there's room for another one below that...
Just the way these people operate. We were supposed to go to 30k in 2017. Tom Lee was calling for it. We were supposed to go to 1k in 2019 according to many youtubers. We were supposed to go to 100k last year and we are supposed to go to 20k this year. These are the same ouija board predictions.

Here is a chart of every week this year and last year.   We are at the bottom pricing for whole range of prices.   It does seem possible to be some area of resistance that can lead to a recovery but also theres no rule that further pressure does not cause great movement outside these boundaries.


So I marked out two highlighted lines, only the upper of the two lines holding as support is going to convince me we are in with a chance of moving back to the prior pricing.  Perhaps we can check the 39k area even if we do fail that and then move lower.

I wouldn't know, but this one more leg down thingy seems to be wrong whenever people said it in the past month. It was one leg down when we moved from 48k to 40k, then another down when we reached under 48k, and then another one when we reached 35k, then another when we reached around 33k, and now another one down.

I mean I wouldn't know if we will be 25k, or 20k or stay at 30k and go up from there, or whatever else happens in the future. If I had 100% sure way of knowing what will happen, I would just open a 150x leverage position and get rich very quickly. However, I can 100% guaranteed say that these "experts" have no idea what's going on.

And so we got another leg down. Is that going to be the last one or a final capitulation down to 25k?


In Europe the mortgage rates went so high they doubled in many countries, so those who bought real estate on credit got mangled by the system and spew out. Same if you tried to build a house and found out in the middle of doing it that materials went up by 100%.


I don't like comparing charts with 2014 and 15 because that was a time of very low liquidity and the time when we lost the biggest exchange in the space and also a time when China banned bitcoin for the first time. A lot of negative press and little adoption to keep the price up.

In 2018 the stable fair value was 5-6k. The fall to 3k for me was an unexpected deviation that's why we came back from it that fast and kept holding between 5k and 10k for another year. I feel like 30k is the 2018 6k. If we ever go below it's going to be a month or less and we'll be back at 30.


It will be 40k again that I'm sure of but how long are we going to have to wait for it. If you bought at 40 and are now going to have your funds locked for a year it's going to suck for you.

The bitcoin was sustained over a decade in the market.At the beginning bitcoin was not popular among the users.So at that time,huge people not brought this bitcoin.Then due to huge flexibility in the bitcoin,it reach good response.The key of success is the bitcoin send to another person will not disclosure.We don’t know whether the bitcoin send to whom or received from whom.

I get, not many people believes that it will not recover quickly, but does anyone really believe that it will never recover? I do not think that anyone believes that at all. Which is a proof enough that it is not really doing any risk for you to just accumulate while it is going down. Should have bought it when itis 39k, and the more at 37k now, and if it goes to 35k buy more there, and keep buying it at all times.

We all know that it will be 40k+ it is not really a big risk, I am not saying that it is zero risks involved, but it is quite low risk and maybe this month or maybe next year however EVENTUALLY it will be 40k and we all know that.

Everyone also wants to profit from the leg down but it is not easy, it is still a risk looking like you are going to be trapped in there. Accumulation is what we desire but no certain way to get that to happen, now hodling the bear looks confusing like you don't know if the price keep crashing to down or if it is going for rise up soon.

What you can do if you think that it will drop is getting in a bit, and if it goes up then you profit just a bit, better than not profiting at all, if it goes down then you get in a bit more, and then a bit more, keep doing that until it doesn't get any lower. Obviously it is not going to be something that lasts forever, but it will be a decent addition for sure.

I believe that we should be profiting from the current situation because everyone is confused, and with DCA while going down, we could accumulate as much as we need to and whenever it goes up we could start selling little by little as soon as it hits the profit range and get ready for another fall.

That's while bitcoin is not predictable, when i made my findings i conclude that while Bitcoin is having hardship of propagation is because bitcoin demand and supply is not working correspondently  in it's market sphere, when you say flush out, really i have seen that bearish season is taking much dominate that bullish season, so i will re- channel this as results of market retracing, and it can accelerate well when the demand is mega.

2018 was a year spent with Dollar index appreciating and that is the atmosphere now.    We have the highest Dollar rating since 2002, so a couple decades of hard rain is falling on BTC beating it back down  and its doing ok so despite that is my view.
   IF we break this current trend it'll relate to the wider move since the start of 2021 and might mean the 20k people see that target achieved.   Some say till we touch that base we cannot move the game on, not sure Im that certain but a check of weak hands is a typical kind of harsh move in BTC I guess.

This is just another case of people using the wrong tool for a job, if you need a hammer you do not use a screwdriver to try to accomplish your job, you find the hammer and then you use it, Youtube is a platform of entertainment and it should be used as such, watching funny and entertaining videos is fine, but when it comes to finding reliable information about the direction a particular asset will take then it is simply the wrong tool for the job.

At this time, I tend to wait and watch the price in the market and do nothing because this situation is very risky for me if I decide to buy.
I don't want to be stuck at a high price because the current price could fall even deeper.
But it would be different if I wanted to trade today because it would allow me to analyze the situation in the market and determine when to enter the market.
Maybe I'm still looking at the state of the market and haven't decided to enter the market yet.

I am Not falling for this , I have seen tons of same posts through the years and yes? only once that i believe this comes reality instead in all those post majority is a failure or something that intentionally delivered for what intention? i don't know.
Agreed in this part , Yeah it is sad reality that there are still many that fell into this trap.
this comes the title and this topic . to talk about another Leg Down 

But the OP is asking about or talking about the Last Leg thing in which the strategy of the whales most of the time .
to spread that there would be a super low price first before it happens the Bull , but how would this to come when the market is in climbing situation ?
I'm afraid that this is not what we truly believe as this is a BS belief that needs to be forgotten .

I am not entirely sure if it's a false hope, I mean bitcoin is "technically" could do that and it doesn't look that bad at all. I am not saying that it WILL do that, but it doesn't look like impossible neither.

I feel like there is a good chance we could end up with some huge increases soon, looking at how we dropped and failed to break under 38k, the increase must be close. That’s how market moves, it goes down as much as it could without a huge deal, it may crash even harder if something horrible happened but nothing happened, so it tested the bottom and found it. Now it’s time to accumulate and increase and make a profit based on that, which will test the top we could reach, who knows what it is.

I've never heard the term "one more leg down",but I don't watch crypto speculators and pseudo-experts on Youtube and social media.There's no point in this(other than having fun watching those pseudo-experts making ridiculous price predictions).

The price will keep moving above and below 40K USD for God knows when.There's no need to make drama out of this,but the newbies and the FUDsters will keep acting as drama queens and overreact every time the price goes below 40K USD.I wouldn't mind if the price drops under 30K USD.The FUDsters and the noobs would probably freak out even more,when the market drops at a 20-30K USD Bitcoin price.

Today the market corrected sharply, the price returned to below $40k or currently around $37900, but I believe the market will bounce back soon so if we buy now it will make us get big profits, don't panic is the key to profit if we invest in cryptocurrencies.

Honestly I think we will most likely see a repeat of 2018, where the entire summer is range bound trading. Then late October or November will come around and we will get out move.

However nobody knows which way the move will be. People are already bearish now and people are expecting $20K Bitcoin and they will long there. However with this many bearish sentiment I don’t know if that will happen. Either way it would be a perfect long setup especially if it revisited the 200 wma.

We can come up with our own analysis without having to listen to any professional YouTubers, its not wrong to follow to get a broader view of the market, but it is absolutely not advisable to listen and completely believe the claims from them.
As a holder, I think it is enough just to keep an eye on the bitcoin price when the price drops sharply we will buy and buy without worrying too much about the short-term fluctuations of bitcoin.

I think this is not simply a matter of being better to make your own analyses of the market but it is the only realistic option, what happens is that when it comes to the people saying those things we know that more than anything they are thinking on benefiting themselves with their statements.

Whether they just want to get more views or they have taken a position in the market and they are looking at manipulating it, the truth is that no one has your best interests at heart except yourself, and with this in mind then you do not really have any other option but to make your own analysis of the market conditions and then decide what you will do based on such analysis.

Perfectly said, just focusing on more productive things other than just watching some YouTube video that will have a negative impression on my emotions, we are all here in the previous bull seasons and we know how the pattern went and so on even in the recent all-time high we witnessed the most glamorous Bitcoin season and at the same time the stormy phase so not listening to some traders signal shit.

the pattern presented by the analysis is only an issue that makes traders flock to buy bitcoin, it turns out that this issue has no effect at all in real trading. many analyzes reveal that bitcoin will break new ATH and claim that bitcoin will break $100k, but to me that is just a false hope and its hard to break that price any time soon.

What I simply think about the market is continuous dragging of price for more longer time. Yesterday trade showed price opening lower and went further down during the day but it came back up before the closing of the day. The point is we keep trading short and taking profit at it because the bear is still riding while the bull trying ride, don't force the market but do what you see.

what they show is a simple analysis based on very significant chart movements, but from the various analyzes applied by real traders, it is solely for profit not just waiting for prices to rise for reasons every year.
I believe that the creators are only after adsense and their assets are just a gimmick.

I will only agree with others that YT and social networks as a source of information are quite unreliable and create a lot of misinformation and confusion, especially when it comes to beginners who absorb it all without any filtering. These so-called experts are nothing but influencers who use all these platforms to make as much money as possible, and it doesn't matter that they are aware that they are releasing a lot of nonsense to the public.
 

How much ATH will be in a bull run is not easy to estimate, it all comes down to speculation - but large numbers always attract more visitors, so many deliberately exaggerate. Some do it on purpose to persuade others not to sell, while they slowly take profits all the way up.

As for the similarities after each bull run, I would say that there are similarities that are manifested by a certain percentage of correction, and then over time a certain stability in price as is the case right now. I remember 2015 when the price slipped even below $200 (before that $1100), as well as 2018 when we slipped down to $3000 (before that $20 000).

I wouldn’t say it’s any different now on that issue, we’re in a period of about 2 years after halving, and about 2 years until the next halving - some might say we’re positioned in the eye of the storm, so while everything seems calm I would say that it is only an illusion.

It's really a given thing that they look like experts and have vast knowledge about the market. Because that's what they are selling with their viewers.
The look that they have a lot of things that they know is what makes the viewers become more curious about them. But the reality, they all have the same tone when it's about the market.

Better not to watch YouTube with this kind of content or read crypto-twitter because all these pseudo-analysts say the same things. When bitcoin goes up - they talk about ATH and what to buy. When the market goes down, they talk about selling and ATL. It is better to do your own analysis of the situation, because someone else's opinion detracts from understanding the market and can lead to mistakes.

Sadly lots of "stupid" people fell for it.

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It is getting boring seeing the same stuff over and over again, with the same concept with partially different wordings in it.  I can understand these vloggers somehow since they need to get more traffic to be paid more.  Most of them just pretend to be experts who just copy others' concepts and revise, then, claim them as their own.  The sad thing is most of them actually don't have enough idea of what they are talking about.

Probably they are applying this idea from some article:which I think isn't applicable to the Bitcoin market, wherein the bear market is way longer than its bull market counterpart.

(According to the quotation, assuming the start of the Bitcoin bull is its halving last May, 2020, so basically, with the thought on that article where the Bull market lasts for 2.7 years, the bull market will end on Sept. 2022 which isn't correct since Bitcoin market had already entered the Bearish trend way back Nov. 2021 or earlier)

I have been seeing this since i Was new in this forum or even in crypto . they tend to claim that there are a need to dumping before creating another Hype but what I observed ? this is not 100% real and instead? this has been used for Propaganda and other whales benefiting from this.
Best not to listen to them and just focus on what you think is correctly to come, what is important is that you are trusting your coin and not just a Pump and Dump believer.

These people needs to tell stupid things so they may gather viewers , because if they dont" then their effort will come to nothing because for sure crypto people will never give them a damn .
but if we know how to engaged with those? then there will no be a problem.

Put them in your Ignore and then surely they will lose chances of gaining what they tend to be.

It could be that what you say is true, but back to their media because making content or vlogs is the same as us who want to be paid, so sometimes what they make is beyond our instincts, yes or no from their explanation.
I've tried to practice it from the results I saw on their youtube but the results are nehi aka I feel like I'm losing.

They are probably saying things to have someone listen to them. Imagine them being able to create videos and create monetary benefits from it; wouldn't you make any content as necessary? You can post your opinions and share some facts, but that's still up to speculation because it's never going to be correct, right? It's just always going to be a guess.

We will never know what happens in the future; YouTubers probably have to make way for the audience to watch their videos even if "One more leg down" or "another leg down" would be said.

For me, the "one leg down" would always mean that it's going to go down first. In essence, how does one thing go up? If it came from something lower. Like falling, you will get back up, and that "up" means that you stand from a lower place. So technically, if you think about it, people want it to go down so that after that "one leg down it can consider it is going up since it came from below. Do I make sense of it or something?

Study oil prices in the 1970s.

opec locked them down and went sideways for years.

we have been in a 30-70 slot since dec 2020.

we are mirroring the 1970s.

but not exactly.

high inflation = yes

high interest = no

high real estate = yes.

I feel inflation causes need to hedge

low bank interest causes the need for a different hedge

in this case the hedge is real estate. big profits and gains here in usa.

in both eras stock market traded in a slot say the dow at 500-1100 up and down.

we could simply drift along for next year plus.

A lot of people think we're still in a bull market.  I'm not seeing the fatigue around another leg down that you seem to be seeing.  Expectations for me personally are that we will continue a slow griding drop in price until the next halving or possibly sooner if an ETF is approved (and it isn't a buy the rumor sell the news situation).  Looking at previous cycles, I wouldn't be shocked if we fell slowly over the next year or two all the way down to $10K.  I'd personally rather we saw $200K, but what I want doesn't matter to the market.  Right now I would put the risk/reward price expectations around $10K/$85K.  That being said, I'm still buying BTC on a regular basis at these levels.

The YouTubers usually give you a positive side of the picture and they will most probably say that bitcoin and crypto will pump in the short term. Most people want to hear this and hence their focus is to make content that is liked by many people but it may not be authentic.
I think if you are a crypto trader, you should avoid those crypto vlogs and advice through youtube as they will lead to a loss. Also sometimes I see these YouTubers shilling some low cap coins to go 1000x. I wonder if they are being paid by the project's owners to make such predictions for their coins 

It will probably gonna lost another leg next week.

If I were you OP, I should stop watching those so-called experts on youtube because they don't really care about the price or anything about the market. They are just concerned for the views and if you are a trader you should just read some articles that might help you to know the next move of the market.

And if you are just holding, you should stop watching the price everyday because it won't move just for a single day. Try to minimize watching them or the price so you won't be stressed so much.

starting with the fact that in 2013 btc went 10x? did you mean 100x because price change in 2013 was bigger than change in 2017.

• They are not trying to find similar patterns, but there are questions that are asked and thus giving a pattern or type of analysis will attract them to views and make the user more confident in what is being talked about.
• all of these videos are trying to find views and therefore they will look for similar patterns, even if they do not exist.

Slow and sustainable growth is better than irrational fluctuations.

US stocks are parallel to us because so much of stock activity is highly rated tech companies that promise lots of growth occurring over 10 years (quite a few arent making money today so lack natural inertia).   If the atmosphere for risk and speculative trades becomes more negative then BTC like many things starts to feel that withdrawal of free capital.  
  Its not that surprising with so many wars and other fears, high cost oil its having a crushing effect on free capital to speculate with.   BTC has done very well so far vs a higher dollar index value, but it can slip some in that general hold its had.   Long term I dont think its negative but alot of trading relies on the idea of more immediate gains.

AFAIK we're already below most of the averages. To me it's mostly US stocks that are dragging us down and the problem with this war and a possible escalation because Putin is proving to be insane. People see it and it shows in the way markets are trading. Stocks in the US, EU and China are down. Nasdaq took another hit today and so did Bitcoin because it is being treated by many like a tech stock.

Experts and traders remind me of this https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hits-2022-high-as-analyst-gives-new-80k-btc-price-target

Funny but true, and it just shows that btc prediction is more complicated than it sounds. As you have said, there's one famous model that predicts bitcoin to hit at least $100k this year but it didn't happen. And I don't think that we this is not the las time that we will hear this kind of terms, to somewhat 'misled', new comers in the market with such technicalities. I guess it's better if we stay away from this kind of crypto influencers specially in YT since obviously they really don't know what they are talking about. Just like you and me, they are making a wild and educate guesses.

The way BTC is acting a flush out is going to occur.  Reason being its failing below moving averages and also challenging a trend true over many months many times now.   One day it stops holding us up and we take a tumble down the mountainside.   It can recover but first we trade down seems more often to become likely every day is how it appears.

I've not paid much attention to Youtubers who say a lot about bitcoin. They can say that there will be "another leg down" and say that the lowest price will be at this, this, and this point, so please be aware and have your money ready to buy in that price range. Yes, they can provide their analysis of where bitcoin will go but keep in mind that no one can predict where bitcoin will go.

As long as you're still willing to try to make your own analysis and don't rely on those "analytical experts," you can see or get other signs of where bitcoin is going. For now, maybe we just need to follow where bitcoin is going. If the price goes down, we buy a little and sell when the price goes up. Maybe we will still see conditions like this for some time.

The issue with those that trade the markets by using patterns is that on the surface it may seem as if they have a point as the patterns seem to repeat themselves, however with the exception of the halving everything else is always different. So trying to find in the past an explanation for what is happening now is a mistake, especially since the bitcoin market of 2022 is not the same as the bitcoin market of 2018 as the circumstances have changed dramatically since then.

That's the reason why I've stopped watching those crypto vloggers, they all say the same thing and just because they've got something to say, makes them an expert.
But no matter what the situation of the market, they'll just continue to do it as they've loved it as a passion and also because of monetization. It's better to read a brief news about the market and good to read topics and articles about what had just happened to the market.

How do you think they would pump out more content when we've been in a sideways chop in this range since fk knows when?

The trick is to simply not watch them. There's so much more productive things to do than to watch YouTube "traders".

How often do you see this sentence posted all over youtube and other social media with people claiming to be experts and analysts claiming that we need another leg down to start a recovery, or to end a bear market, or to reverse the trend?
I remember seeing this in 2019 when we were sitting at 3k where people, including well known figures like Tone Vays saying that we'll have another leg down to the previous all time high of 1k USD.
I watch youtubers from time to time and the majority thinks we'll either go to the 200 week MA at 2k USD, or touch the old ATH at 20k because some "old pattern" has to repeat.

I find this to be stupid. They're looking for similarities in the corrective move, ignoring the fact that there weren't many similarities in previous bull runs and this one, starting with the fact that in 2013 btc went 10x, in 2017 and early 2018 it went up 20x and this time in it's worst performing bull market in history, it only made 3.5x.
Their defense is that they're trying to make people aware of what can happen, but they're actually getting lost in the same pattern that last year, in the bull market, made them believe that Bitcoin has to reach between 80k and 100k, with some claiming 150k would be the top.

What do you think? Is "another leg down" starting to get old?