Topic: One of the biggest Wall Street Bitcoin bulls just turned bearish (Read 4526 times)

No.  Money runs on the SAME fool theory.  You accept it, because you think someone else will accept it *for about the same value*.
A same fool theory is sustainable, and if it kicks in, you have money.  The reason why it is sustainable is that you can appear AGAIN further in the loop.  And again, and again.

A Ponzi, or a bubble, is based upon the GREATER fool theory.  You will eventually run out of greater fools, so this is not sustainable.

However, in order for an asset to become money, and to adopt a same fool theory, it has to go through some stages of "greater fool" when it is acquiring value.

So no (free) monetary asset can avoid having a bublish behavior during its initial phase.

The difference between a bubble, and emerging money, is that the asset collapses after the bubble, and flattens out on the top if it becomes money.

He's a media guy from Fast Money but he has also been that programs crypto bull. Has written a book on crypto, founded his own coin (Nautilus) and been a mouthpiece for bitcoin amongst the Wall St types. I haven't ever found him over the top, pound the desk style bullish, just positive on the possibilities. Probably more similar to Matt Miller than Barry Silbert.

The more I hear about this guy the more I want to know if he is really in the investing business or is he in the media business? OR does he use the media to effect people's emotions to SUPPORT his investment business?  

Stop listening to media hype and create your own informed opinions. It'll serve you well.

Wall street is driven by profits, nothing else.
They try to make money out of other people's emotions. 

Saying bearish things is the best way to get the correct and direct answer. So he said "bitcoin operates on a greater fools theory, which is fine until you run out of fools"
where he was totally countered with a straight response, even a bit laughter.
To me it seams the his bearish statement was actually not his own personal opinion, but an answer to the wuestion many are asking.


cheers

People are turning bearish all the time. And some are also turning bullish. The people on Wall Street are humans as well, they experience the same emotions as anyone else and they also make mistakes. Why shouldn't someone turn bearish, once in a while?

Exactly 

Everything is a greater fool theory, it's called free market.

Another BK endorsement of bitcoin, highlighting use case for small business.

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/243071

/thread

How about saying one thing and doing exactly the opposite? This what usually Wall Street guys do, right?

Conversely, someone announcing they're bullish means they're trying to GTFO.

Ha. Good statement. Sometimes things being so simple and yet everything is right there in front of us and we just chose not to accept it. By the way, I don't think the statement that Brian Kelly made is going to cause any negative effect. He's probably writing two sides of a story to gain some attention or readers.

BK doesn't come across as bearish by any stretch.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102456187

Someone announcing to the public they are bearish on bitcoins means they want to buy bitcoin.  Not fooled by this.

Seems like Brian Kelly is making bull comments again:

Bitcoin futures market just changed the game

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102456187

No, it doesn't work like that, because of the way difficulty adjusts. The price of Bitcoin drives mining, not the other way around. Everybody on the mining side understands this, painfully.

thanks for the kudos :-)
We just analyse and develop bitcoin forecasts. if people buy and sell thereafter, leading to pump and dump, that's totally usual. we know that our forecasts very often move the market.

Ripple operates on the greater fools theory. Bitcoin on the other hand is a commodity just like Gold and the base price is what it cost to produce.

   ______
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Stop shilling for your pump & dump syndicate papa smurf

The only reason why really-early adopters still may cash out would be to hedge against the possibility that Bitcoin really is headed to $0 this time. I don't think the probability for this is very high but I can see why people may be wise to at least prepare for the possibility. Just keep in mind: Those people are most likely (still) deep in the black numbers, but just want to make sure not to lose out in case of BTC failing...

People that turn bear after 1+ year of bear markets are not people you should follow. Being one year late is not a sign of insight.

Many long term bulls and true believers are becoming bears.  That side of the trade is getting crowded.  We could be in for an epic short covering/ panic buying rally.

Karen is right to compare Ripple (read: FedCoin] to the dollar, but not for the reasons stated

"[Bitcoin] is a little clunky to transact with..."  says the lady from the Fed

Fiat runs on the greater fools theory too, and there's a near infinite number of fools on the world anyway

Well, isn't it an awesome thing to accept the truth? I think this evaluation is more or less spot on, isn't it? Sure, they're acknowledging their own caveats this ways, but if you're not facing the truth, you're soon facing something different. Gold isn't exactly a good way of transferring value, is it?

How stupid this is. I can't believe it.
A "Wall Street Guru" declares to be bearish AFTER price plunges from 1163 $ to 152$, a decline of 90% (now bitcoin prices are at 236 $). This is typical. Wall street analysts have no clue what's going on. Instead, most often they are a great contrarian indicator.
On bullbearanalytics, we have been BEARISH right in the 1000$ zone http://bullbearanalytics.com/2015/01/17/bitcoin-predictions-review-outperform-buy-hold/. We are fine not being called wall street gurus.. we don't care. we focus on doing the right analysis for our community members.
 

Karen Gifford's (Ripple Labs) part was the best:
1:10:05 - 1:13:10
Compares Bitcoin to Gold and Ripple to the dollar.

One smalltime dude doesn't have the ability to take the market down with mere words.

The topic should read
One of the biggest Wall Street Bitcoin bulls just made a bearish statement

You really don't know whether that is what he really thinks, or whether he is just talking the market down.

1. Establish credibility
2. Spew bearish words
3. People sell
4. Buy low
5. Wait
6. Profit?

Don't think he has turned bearish. As you say he wrote a book, has his own coin (nautilus) and has been an outspoken advocate. But that's not to say that statement doesn't hold true.

Bitcoin is many things to many people. BK is a stocks guy, looking at bitcoin like a stock; people speculate (buy) when they think the price will rise. Could be like a tech stock where people speculate because of the emerging platform / network / users. In this case they plan to be an 'early adopter' or entry level investor etc and sell when the price rises. Trading mindset, greater fool needed.

Some see it as a commodity akin to gold, an immature store of value. Buy and hold mindset, greater fool or at least someone to exchange goods with is eventually needed.

Others see it as a future industry. The security guys, the business services guys. A cheaper way to do things like remittance, money transfer. Quick, trustless, no 3rd party and a secure blockchain. These people also have to be speculators because this infrastructure isnt built out yet. The VC's invest to do this building, the CS grads, the business schoolers get into start ups to create the rails. Tech mindset, greater fools down the line.

Most burgeoning industries, especially ones that disrupt finance, need a greater fool. It's not that controversial to say it out loud. If you could have invested in Airbnb, Twitter, Facebook, Uber etc etc you would have been doing so for the same reasons; you think it is going somewhere.

What makes you think he always was a permabull until now? Thinking that Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies are going to change the world isn't the same as being a permabull on the price of a Bitcoin or that you have to disbelief that the greater fool theory plays a role in the price discovery of these new currencies. I don't share his opinion and agree with the answers he got on his question, but I don't see any proof that he used to be a permabull. Just someone who thought about this greater fool theory and thinks it may be an issue at this point for Bitcoin's value and wanted to discuss this.

No I don't, that is not even the main point.
The main point is that a decently known Wall Street bitcoin investor and perma-bull expressed bearish opinions all of a sudden and in that precise manner (explicitly talking about "greater fools").

Of course when you put your money into something you want to make sure it is not a fad and it is a legitimate concern. The "intrinsic value" topic has been discussed to death starting 6 years ago so I am kind a surprised he wrote a whole book without getting into this first. Again, that is a legitimate concern and he also got an appropriate answer.

Do you really want to reopen the eternal discussion about the "intrinsic value" of bitcoin?

lol.
Whatever.
Go watch the video and listen to what he says, tell me if it looks like he is referring to a natural aspects of all currencies, I don't think you have watched it at all  

You posted thread about a random dude talking about "wall street getting into bitcoin", and another of the twobitidiot dude posting a random pic of a bunch of wall street guys listening to a bitcoin conference but now you don't think it's relevant to post about one of the biggest prononents of cryptocurrencies that appeared on CNBC's "Fast Money "talking about it, writing a book about it, posting bullish articles about it (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102369183) that invested in bitcoin and in the bitcoin space, who now expressed concerns about bitcoin as an investment all of a sudden.
You don't think that is relevant?

Any form of money specially the USD are based on the greatest fool theory. That's how money works.

Why should I care about Brian Kelly? Did he contributed to the ecosystem anyhow?

Devil's advocate question.

Do you plan on posting more vague bullshit or are you gonna contribute to the thread?


You don't think that a long time Wall Street bitcoin perma-bull like Brian Kelly currently expressing concerns about bitcoin as an investment and admitting that it works on  "greater fools theory" is a pertinent observation that deserved a thread and a discussion?  

A clueless question that received an enlightening answer. 

What do you mean?

Nope, we just witnesses someone being educated.

Watch this part of this video:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFxsIbhPws4#t=1h07m30s



You see Brian Kelly (http://www.briankellycapital.com/bitcoin-big-bang/), one of the biggest Wall Street bitcoin bulls who wrote "the Bitcoin Big Bang: how alternative currencies are going to change the world" being concerned about bitcoin as an investment and admit that "bitcoin operates on a greater fools theory, which is fine until you run out of fools" .


Did we just witness one of the biggest Wall Street Bitcoin bulls just turn bearish?





By the way, the whole video is great is you're interested.