only 7% of supply is halving | Bitcointalksearch.org

Zoomic

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 17, 2023, 03:05:33 AM

Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving. So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

You are doing too simple a mathematical operation. Where is the demand in your equation? What happens if the demand is multiplied by 1,000 or by 1,000,000 in those 120 years? Bitcoin is a scarce commodity of which there is less and less new supply. To think about how much the price can go up you have to factor in how much demand can go up, and also inflation in the fiat currency of reference, although I think like mk4 that the returns in percentage terms as the cycles progress will be lower, and I opened a thread about it at the time.

Was going to say these exact words, was just going through the replies to see a comment that captured it. The OP made his calculation with only supply parameter, forgetting that halving is not only about supply but demand. Even if there is little/no bitcoin to mine, the effect of halving will always be there.
Only the halving hype on social media will attract so many new comers into the cryptocurrency industry, and the people trooping in are the ones that increases the price of bitcoin.
While, your statement is right, the calculative application is wrong and that is why your result is also wrong.

Poker Player

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Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving. So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

You are doing too simple a mathematical operation. Where is the demand in your equation? What happens if the demand is multiplied by 1,000 or by 1,000,000 in those 120 years? Bitcoin is a scarce commodity of which there is less and less new supply. To think about how much the price can go up you have to factor in how much demand can go up, and also inflation in the fiat currency of reference, although I think like mk4 that the returns in percentage terms as the cycles progress will be lower, and I opened a thread about it at the time.

goldkingcoiner

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Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving. So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

I do not think you understand how demand and supply works nor do you seem to understand the concept of halving. The supply is not halving. The supply is and always was capped at 21 million Bitcoins. What is halving is the reward for mining Bitcoin. Therefore mining becomes less rewarding than before, and therefore the price of Bitcoin goes up. Why? Because we need mining. Otherwise transacting Bitcoin does not work. And miners need a lucrative profit otherwise they will not see the point of continuing to mine. All in all, this leads to a drastic increase in price.

un_rank

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- Jay -

Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving.

92.7% actually. and while your calculation is correct, you are applying it wrongly to the price movement which results from the halving.
Mining is a bigger business than it was a decade ago and huge investments are being put into rigs and pools so a halving which affects the profit of that business, affects the price majorly.

Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

It will definitely be more than that.

- Jay -

passwordnow

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Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

If there's one thing that I've learned about this market through Bitcoin, is its volatility and unpredictability. You're the one who's expecting that percentage of gain and not us. Whatever the metric you've used into ending with that percentage, it means that you've got some basis for it.
And with lesser supply during the halving, that also means that there's going to be more scarcity for Bitcoin. While we're counting on the cycle on how it looked like before, that's what I am looking forward to see.

aoluain

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Quote from: aysg76 on August 17, 2023, 01:00:27 AM

It's not exactly how you are calculating the growth percentage because the market forces of demand and supply will actually deviate the prices.With supply being halfed the demand curve goes up it will automatically push the prices to rise but with how much percentage we can't exactly tell but it will have impact that we can say seeing how adoption curve is moving diagonally upwards slowly with more awareness about decentralization.

Yup this is how the majority of us see it, simple supply and demand. Also lets not
lose sight of the fact that it is a cut in block reward so this will affect the miners.
Their costs will remain more or less the same and in the meantime they will have
to work harder to earn the same reward as the did prior to the halving, which essentially
means up to double the cost for them and the customer/buyer always pays the costs!

NotATether

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Your math makes no sense. How does the Bitcoin price increase by only 50% over 120 years? That means that the maximum price would be $45,000, which we had already cleared previously. It is possible and actually very likely (according to trends you can observe in previous halvings) that in the next halving that the bitcoin price triples, if not quadruples, its current price, on average.

Fivestar4everMVP

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Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving. So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

Well, i have said it times without number that the coming bitcoin price pump wont be solely as a result of the coming halving, if halving was to be the catalyst that will drive the coming bull run, then i also don't think or believe that bitcoin will increase much in terms of price, there are several other developments coming that has the potentials to drive the price of bitcoin to Pluto or Mars, or to the moon as we all are already familiar with, one of those developments is the Bitcoin ETF, i personally believe that if the bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC, this alone has the potentials to drive the price of bitcoin to above $120,000 from the current price, with a very little help from the coming halving.

So yeah, investors should not really depend or focus their attention on halving cus, halving alone might not drive the price of bitcoin as high as people are expecting.

aysg76

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It's not exactly how you are calculating the growth percentage because the market forces of demand and supply will actually deviate the prices.With supply being halfed the demand curve goes up it will automatically push the prices to rise but with how much percentage we can't exactly tell but it will have impact that we can say seeing how adoption curve is moving diagonally upwards slowly with more awareness about decentralization.

Latviand

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The historical patterns already indicate a pump in prices after the halving and the scarcity of bitcoin gets higher as the blocks becomes much harder to mine. Also, how can you be so sure that in 120 years there's going to only be 50% increase? I would probably believe you if bitcoin is infinite supply and at the same time there's no lost coins which there's a lot already which contributes to the ever increasing scarcity of bitcoin and we all know the basics of law of supply and demand. And there's also the people that's believing that bitcoin will pump during the halving which will definitely gather media attention and we know the power of media right?

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Quote from: tread93 on August 16, 2023, 07:21:55 PM

Supply and demand! Just the fact alone that it is going to be twice as hard to mine for half the coins is enough to give it a nice bump as it has done historically. Let's just sit back and enjoy the show, eh?

This holds a pivotal significance—imagine a scenario where everyone is offloading their Bitcoins at prices north of 100k, yet there's a scarcity of genuine buyers. In essence, a price beyond 100k would merely sustain itself momentarily until the force of price correction reaches its threshold.

The age-old interplay of supply and demand remains a focal point for all. While we might entertain soaring hopes of Bitcoin's value rocketing to astronomical heights, it's imperative that we grasp the underlying fundamentals. Could the phenomenon of halving alone suffice to propel its market value beyond the 100k mark?

tread93

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Supply and demand! Just the fact alone that it is going to be twice as hard to mine for half the coins is enough to give it a nice bump as it has done historically. Let's just sit back and enjoy the show, eh?

Sim_card

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Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving. So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

As long as bitcoin adoption continues we will see a significant price of bitcoin in the next bull run. The halving has always added impact on bitcoin price to pump and it doesn't matter if we only have 3.125BTC left to be mined. It might be very small number compare to the previous number after the halving but it doesn't mean that the quantity of bitcoin to be mined after the halving would make the price not have a pump to above 100k because after every halving comes the bull run and from history every bull run has an ATH price which do increase above the previous ATH. With bitcoin price at 29k+,this is a sign that we will have bitcoin price above 100k in 2025.

BlackBoss_

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Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving. So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

No supply is halving. It is only block reward will be halved after 210,000 blocks that last about 4 years. Total supply is always 21 million bitcoins but less and less new bitcoins will appear from block rewards each 210,000 blocks.

How is the 21 million Bitcoin cap defined and enforced?

Controlled supply and Equivalent Network Time can provide more details and other views for you.

Darker45

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To be fair, I acknowledge your point. The halving that will take place at block 840,000 isn't like the one that took place at block 210,000 when the reward fell from 50BTC to 25BTC. The reward that would be halved in the next several months is only 6.25BTC, not a big number.

But given that the price of Bitcoin is already almost $30,000, the next halving would mean that roughly $92,000 in Bitcoin is taken off the market every 10 minutes. That's around $552,000 every hour, $13,248,000 every day. Vis-à-vis the growing adoption and therefore demand, I don't think 3.125BTC every around 10 minutes is an insignificantly small amount.

I'm convinced it's significant enough to influence the price.

Afnan_faizah

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that's not how I am thinking, maybe I can accept your opinion if the number of bitcoin adoption per day is not increased. the price is influenced by supply and demand, the halving event influence the supply but the demand influenced by many things such as sentiments, people necessities and etc.

Husires

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Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving. So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

No one knows what will happen in the future. People may remember their private keys, or the means of recovering deleted data will develop, or some technologies will develop so that we can access the private key of the addresses that were used for Bitcoin in the early days (P2PK). All this will convert lost or lost coins into new currencies. It will enter the market as if it were mined coins. It is true that we will not exceed the barrier of 21 million coins, but the number of coins in circulation will increase. The increase in the price is linked to an increase in demand and a decrease in supply, which may change for a number of reasons.

mk4

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It is common sense to say that halvings will likely have less and less effect with coming halving due the less supply distribution being halved, but let's not forget that halvings are still bombastic news.

Also, don't underestimate the compounding effect of the fact that there will be less selling pressure.

Hamza2424

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Quote from: 6ccl on August 15, 2023, 06:25:04 PM

85k will be come in 24, thanks me later

What .... IS it some kind of motivation or investment advice or showing off haha like really showing off that Bitcoin will hit 84k, so buddy I do appreciate your long-sighted prediction but what's the basis of it a few rumors. What if it crosses your limit and people on your advice take exit from there so should they have the right to blame you haha,

I'm more curious what's your role in the 84k race, accumulator, analyzer, manipulator, or ...... Fill in the blank, please.

_act_

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Quote from: hsdjkahskjdh on August 15, 2023, 06:23:35 PM

So expect a 3.5% increase max.

Did you mean 3.5% or 3.5x? Bitcoin is more volatile than to expect 3.5%. Even before halving, bitcoin will have more than 3.5% uptrends and downtrends.

In the next halving, before 2026, I am expecting bitcoin to have increased above $100000 which is the least price I could think of.

6ccl

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85k will be come in 24, thanks me later

hsdjkahskjdh

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Everyone thinks bitcoin will pump next halving, when 93% of supply is already minted, only 7% of supply is halving. So expect a 50% increase max on 7% over 120 years.

Topic: only 7% of supply is halving (Read 230 times)