Topic: Pandemic pushed the US into recession- now official , analysis (Read 376 times)

Russia said that they will announce the first ever corona virus 19 vaccine this year but it was really shady AF. They did it themselves, even WHO are suspecting that it would cause more health problems once taken by an individual.

I've read some clinical trial results, and it's really bothering because it is inconsistent like there were 100 people being experimented and none of them show any side effects, then the second trial 50/100 of people did show any violent reaction from the vaccine. My guess about this pandemic? it would take 2 years before the vaccine starts to be mass produced ( not hoping lol )

Earlier hopefully, I already saw the every corner of our house.

there is no way we could see a Corona virus vaccine within this year. at least not a real one anyways. first they have find a vaccine that works then they have to first experiment on lab rats (or similar animals) then there should be human studies among volunteers and finally start mass production.
this could easily take 1 year to 1.5 year if we are lucky.

The peak is not over since second wave is expected this winter. There should be 3rd wave end of next year but will be most likely curt by vaccine. What is problematic is that some countries although they tried could not do anything against first wave.

And the recession is on its last legs, or at least that what they claim:


It will still end even with this well below 2019 levels but if indeed their predictions come true, it seems the worst is over, there is a bit of optimism in the markets also, the $ is back a bit reducing the rate from 1.19 to 1.16 against the euro. This might be an interesting first week of October when the real numbers come out, and I'm pretty sure both candidates will try to milk them as much as they can.

The corona vaccine is still the item that is most expected to exist before 2020 ends, but until now the development of the corona vaccine has only reached 70%.  Currently, I see that many countries have started to relax their strict rules on community activities during this "PANDEMIC" period and prefer a new normal to save the economy.  the US government must work hard in dealing with the economic and health problems that are happening in their country to be able to avoid the possibility of the economy getting worse in the future..

I am not surprised. The total number of deaths from the COVID 19 pandemic has crossed the 1 million mark, and out of that more than one-fifth has been from the United States. In some of the countries (such as the United Kingdom and France), the peak stage is over and the number of new deaths are less than one-tenth of what they had during the peak phase. But in the US, the peak is not yet over. And in such a situation, it will be difficult to say when the economic recovery would start.

The case if the recession in US will continue to get worse will be dependent on the action they will engage on finding solutions to resolve their present problems whether economical, health and with regards to the employment rate of the country. No one can still assure what will most likely to happen for there could be possible response that the government is formulating to resolve the issue with concern of the recession happening in their country. If they will take immediate response and action on the issues contributing to the recession and resolve those in as soon as possible, then recession will not continue to get worse and we can see a recovery phase to arise in the middle of this pandemic.

I'm one of the most optimistic guys around here but seriously, treating the crisis like this is beyond what I could ever say..
A little job loss? One in ten people being out of a job, taking into account the people who depend on them and can't work like children under 18 or older people is a catastrophe if it goes more than one year. As for the dollar getting stronger, it's getting stronger than the currencies of the nations who are in digging themselves in a deeper hole, compared to the euro it has lost 6% from the start of the year for example.


The Brazilian real has lost 25% against the USD, the Turkish lira, the Iranian rial, the Russian ruble or the South African Rand are also down from 15-20%.
And those are countries with somewhat working economies, there are smaller countries that got hit even harder.

Its expected already that most of the countries that are heavily affected by this pandemic will go into a recession.
They are the epicenter of the virus so its kinda expected that this will happen to them.
The Fed are continuously creating money, the debt of the US is increasing as always, unemployment rate is at its highest. No doubt that a recession will happen.

I don't know if this is related but I think that the election in a few months will affect the country in some ways.

This I think will elongate and it is worth noting that this situation doesn't affect US only but global. Until there is a vaccine that is general acceptable, the situation might worsen which we don't want to experience in any capacity.

US is not alone having this recession because most of the countries are also struggling to recover from their down economy. But this one for sure will definitely take a long process and might even take years to recover because the government is more focused on the health safety of their citizens rather than focusing on how to generate profits for the country's sinking economy.

Its not just US that is going to plunge into a recession. Most countries in the world had been affected by the virus, every city locked down just to slow down the spread of virus and its consequences are felt by the people within it. This is going to be the new normal now and it sink in already that surviving this pandemic should be the first priority.

War is not a solution anymore to run an economy. Things change and maintaining on top of the game can be hard.

I believe that pandemic is a big reason why US economy is in recession but people are forgetting the fact that what made the economy so wobbly and why it drops constantly is the fact that it is not built on a good foundation which is why it always drops so much when something bad happens. Look at Europe for example, you think Germany has zero loss? You think pandemic doesn't affect German people and they are naturally vaccinated on birth towards covid? Obviously not, they could have gotten it and they could had the economical and life costs as well.

They neither died that much nor they lost money that much, USA is just a horribly managed nation and it is so bad that they both died in hundreds of thousands plus they also lost a chunk of money at the same time because they are idiots.

Going back to normal is impossible for now because the virus will not be cleared in this 2020 meaning you have to wait until next year if that is what you wanted to happen.
who are changing their currencies to USD?

mind clearing this one?because US is now printing more fiat just to sustain their economic needs.

Not just the US that gets the effect of the lockdown or Covid-19, but the other country also gets the same thing, and all countries are still trying to fix and solve the problem. But the Covid-19 still there, trying to get more people infected, and it needs more attention from people to realize the danger of the Covid-19. We hope that the recession does not happen to all countries, and we can figure out how to get the vaccine as soon as possible so that we can fix the economy in every country.

The lockdown really affected the economy of US, and many people lose their job, most of their industries that was substaining them stop working because of the way covid-19 cases was increasing in the country.
I guess, with the strategies the government has put on ground show that the citizens of US are about to improve in their economy challenge in the country.
Trump re-election is approaching so the government will not delay in economy condition to put smile in the face of their people.

All that happens now is an attempt to fix the post-disaster. Economic crises occur every 5 or 10 years, but it is the government's willingness for them that makes them less effective.
Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve deals with the crisis as an economic crisis and not a health crisis that may lead to catastrophic economic results. Therefore, we note that the solutions appear dim and unreal.
The recent rise in the stock market is an indication that what is happening is just a bubble, so investing in that market will be very costly.
Generally, unless COVID19 crisis ends, we cannot judge the quality of the solutions that are currently being presented.

I also don't any recession yet. Just a little job losses which is because of covid-19 that has also affected every country of the world.
The dollar is not showing weakness since this week, it has been getting stronger and more currencies are exchanged for the dollar, that is a positive sign for economic growth. After the election, I believe that the US economy is going to be stronger as it will consolidate on the support given by the government to citizens on covid-19. This will generate more investment and growth in GDP rate.

I can’t say for sure , we will know this when they ease all the restrictions and things gets back to normal, that way we will see what follows next. For now that there are still some restrictions we can’t really tell.

Although I don’t think that the US economy is going to fall, it’s not something that can happen easily, and your last statement already proves that, there are so many countries and investors that are relying on and investing in the US stocks. Even right now that there is a pandemic lots of people are buying the USD and changing their currencies to the USD to stay safe. So the US economy is not going to fall easily.

oh, a politician made a promise. everything is dandy now

kidding aside i'm still not convinced that we are headed for a catastrophe but there is definitely a recession going on even though we are not feeling it clearly right now. with the inflation and crazy money printing of the fed there is just no other option left but to see inflation and a recession even if a small one.

 We all know that if America is in a recession it will affect all of the countries around it and it sucks. Even though cases are declining, vaccines have yet to arrive, meaning people are still going to work and consume in fear. This in particular affects the US economic candle very much.
But the important thing is that people are investing so much in the US stock market, will the sharks foresee a recession will not come this year? What do you think about this ?
P / s: I am really wondering about holding coins so I want to know what the opinion of the crowd is. Many thanks for reply me.

I understand that a lot of trump voters will find a way to defend him but that is the trouble with republicans when you compare them to democrats and that is why republican party voters should change their mindset to begin with. Obama was a democrat and democrats criticized him as well, Clinton was a democrat and he was told many things as well from democratic party, hell Bernie has been one of the greatest candidates in recent memory and they all worked hard to not nominate him and found whoever they could just to keep him not nominated.

Democrats hate Trump and that is logical but if you think they are in love with their own candidate you are very wrong, republicans however worship Trump and when you put these two information together, you are going to have a dictatorial horrible sinking nation.

I can't ignore the fact that in some countries USD is really skyrocketing despite the fact that every article indicates how bad USD will end up. Still, people in some countries stick with USD very much. For example, in Republic Of Georgia, their national currency is falling seriously and USD rises despite the fact that National Bank sold solid amount of reserves even in current situation. Looks and sounds very curious for me.

In this country people love USD so much that even if it falls worldwide, they'll still stick with it I guess.
Situation is going worse, I wouldn't say that benefits outweight the cons because we didn't see any benefit, people are still infected and this number rises, it's impossible to control it and 3 months stop of economics ruined everything.

Of course, but it's also pretty weird for that statistic to be included in the list as it's one of the few indicators that is looking good.
Just read the other days that the unemployment rate went again down to 8.4%, of course not a great number, not really showing all the picture as a better indicator would be the number of people having jobs, but it's still better than nothing.


And when the weak dollar helps the economy with the economy growing the dollar also starts to increase in value and we're back to square one as there is no direct trajectory for this, you can't have booming manufacturing and exports with an increasing currency forever.
What you can have, is a weak currency and a totally shitty economy that isn't producing anything!

As for the euro, I wouldn't read to much into the latest movement.
In 2017 one euro was at the lowest worth 1.04 usd, then in 2018 1.25 and now it's hovering between 1.18 and 1.15, probably more the effect of enthusiasm that  EU is safe from the virus, enthusiasm that is coming to bite us in the a...I've one said, if the US has 10 times more cases, there is also a positive, there are fewer persons who could become sick in the future, here we have avoided that...till now. If Europe returns not to permanent lockdown but at least to reimposing the shutdowns of tourism and pubs and malls we're going back to 1E=1$ in a month.


You're talking about two islands with 4 million people in the middle of nowhere, with 10 times fewer visitors per year than Las Vegas.
Things that work don't always scale.

The economic crisis is a direct result of the pandemic, so a recovery would be dependent on how quickly life can safely return to normal, with businesses opening back up to stimulate the economy.
New Zealand could be used as an ongoing case study on how a recovery process would be in other nations. The country responded quickly and efficiently to the outbreak and were able to adequately contain it with minimal cases and deaths, this strict measures however resulted in an national recession - New Zealand plunges into recession as economy shrinks record 12pc - the next phase would be rebuilding.
How the economy would react would give an idea of how recoveries would happen in other nations.

This pessimism could have an adverse effect on an economic recovery. If majority of the populace fear a possible economic downturn or relapse, it could result in panic, affecting SME and macroeconomic indicators, regardless of the growth in gross output statistics.

USD lost a lot toward euro in the last few months. That makes USA exporting into Europe cheaper. And importing from Europe more expensive. That should at last on short term help USA economy a bit. Question is where will price move now. Will be dollar get even cheaper or will start gaining strength back.

I think you mean unemployment rates there, because we're certainly not at 90% unemployment.

Personally, I don't think it will.  The economy was going strong before COVID-19 hit, and that was reflected in the stock market.  The pandemic happened and there was a panic; people lost their jobs, either temporarily or permanently; and the stock market took a beating (and so did bitcoin, btw).

Right now the S&P 500 is picking up right where it got knocked down from when the pandemic started, and I'm noticing restaurants opening back up and people are definitely not keeping to the social distancing guidelines anymore, and many people aren't even wearing masks.  I think a lot of US citizens are waking up to the reality that this thing is nowhere near as bad as what everyone thought in the beginning.

The money-printing and interest rate stuff might have a serious effect on the economy, however.  I just have no idea when we're going to start seeing that effect.

But the US President predicts "SUPER V" economic recovery
So you guys don't have to worry about recession as it's only for a brief period.

I think that the US economy is currently in a recession as the term recession suggests that two consecutive quarters of negative growth are needed to be in one. Q1 of 2020 was down by 5% and Q2 by 32.9%.

But all data are very bad and perhaps it will take at least two years of fixing problems to recover (meaning to reach the same GDP level before recession).

I read numerous articles since the wake of pandemic , articles where people stated how US is excessively printing money , how it's all a bubble and Burst one day. On June 8,2020
The US declared that they are in recession- officially
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52972901
_*_
The author states how it can very easily fall into a more claustrophobic event , causing depression. Now we are approximately 3 months away from the official declaration of the recession , let us examine if it indeed is improving or going down.
-Fed is backing up the economy by trying to put zero interest rates
-US budget deficit is now 3 trillion $
-employment rates are falling down below 10%.
-President is trying to solve some of the problems here but unfortunately the situation is far more problematic.
-People are betting on dollar collapsing

What do you guys think will happen to the US ? Will the recession continue to worsen ?

( That aside there are countries which are in worse condition as compared to US and do need more exposure and education, but most of these countries are holding US stocks so if the US market falls they will have considerable problems )