So eto na nga mga kabayan, mula sa topic na "bitcoin as a commodity market?" Umabot tungkol sa conspiracy theory about sa market manipulation ng malalaking crypto whales at nagandahan lang ako sa sagot nung ka forum natin na si franky1 kasi sobramg eye opener response nya. Kaya yun e.she.share ko dito baka makatulong kasi baka me mga katulad ko na matagal na sa industriyang ito pero me mga misconceptions padin.
alot of people think its "whale" manipulation of exchanges.
but after studying things. its not. its actually the minnows
in 2013-4 when the markets were $400 there were whales making walls of 1000btc
obviously with prices at $40k now it means a similar 'wall' only needs to be 10btc deep
this is because although the market is portrayed as supply and demand. where instead of 2013-4 supply was only 12mill coins and now there are 19mill.. the more supply in circulation has not resulted in more supply on the market.
eg. if average order was 2btc in 2013-4, youd think with 50% more in circulation average orders would now be 3btc
however, most market orders now are of 0.01btc-10btc not 1btc-1000btc in earlier years.
meaning there is probably an equal 100x less coin in exchanges offsetting an equal 100x more price.
sellers have figured out that buyers are not spending more money. they instead are spending the same amount.
so if someone in 2013 wanted to spend $600 a month he would get 1.5btc in 2013-4. where as now he would get 0.015btc.
the market price does not mean someone in 2013-4 who regularly paid $600 a month to buy crypto is now buying $60,000 a month.
buyers value per order has not changed. and so its the sellers who dont want to crash the market by selling 1.5btc now or even 2.25btc with there being 50% more supply in circulation than in 2013-4.
instead decide to play the economics game, offer smaller amounts of coin
imagine it this way. a seller.. with 1.5btc. wanting $60k
right now he can make 2 choices.
sell 1.5btc at $40k/btc =$60k fiat
sell 0.1btc
(15 times) at $4.01k= $60.15k (0.1*15=1.5)
sellers find it easier to not try selling 1.5btc at 40.1 as that creates a wall keeping price below that, but if he has small orders that fill of 0.01 for $401, they fill fast and are seen as a price lift to $40.1, even without buyers having to buy up tens of thousands of dollars to achieve it.
what im saying is dont worry about the only last few whales pushing 10btc.. instead watch out for the minnows putting in 0.01btc orders spaced out by $1 a coin meaning small orders causing large movements in prices
sellers realise instead of trying to push 1.5 coins on a market which can cause the price to go down. if they sell small portions in small amounts at a slight premium. the buyers dont notice the big hit as much. but it pushes the market price
ill add this for reference
screenshot taken from binance whilst writing this post
When it only takes 0.32725btc to When it only takes 0.31331btc tochange the price by $6(38772-38766) change the price by $7 (38773-38780)then you know the problem is not due to lots of orders or lots of buyers/sellers. but instead its the LACK of traders, which means that a price can change, not by 1cent amounts but by $2-$3 in one order line fill
if there were thousands of users:
which would put orders 1cent above the next and so order fills would only move by 1cent
or
many people will put lots of coin on one priceline meaning it would appear as 1-20btc not 0.02btc
but instead.. look at
SELL 3->4 one order fill can change the price by $3.39
BUY 2->3 one order fill can change the price by $4.35
code can prevent big whale wallers, but human emotion and greed will play the opposite and find a way to play the markets
