Topic: Pattern Recognition 101 (Read 4375 times)

Communal "social" Anarchism is a much better goal than the other worn out collectivist options. You can live in a utopian commune and others will be free to follow their own path, even if that includes competing to make material gains.



The current "base-building" is taking a long time, so if we get back under $200 many people will get scared. I think under $100 is possible, but a fresh Huge Rally is much more likely.

Entirely possible, but I don't think so.

I was highlighting the overt appeal to authority in that thread vs. the covert referencing here.  It was just slightly amusing.

What's your predicted time frame for the moon bounce?

It's called copy+paste

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11970968

Oh, okay

...I do like the quote, though.

If I have seen further it is only by standing on the shoulders of giants. It matters not one iota to me who wrote what, or had which idea first. All that matters is whether an idea is true and useful, or false. In my opinion the compendium of human knowledge is not a competition, but an ongoing collective effort from which we all benefit. A culture which treats knowledge with the dignity it deserves does not lock the world's wealth of academic papers behind paywalls (see my signature). Although sometimes their stories are interesting, I don't really care much about Carl Sagan the person or Isaac Newton the person. I care a great deal about their ideas, about the truth they have left for us. This focus on remembering individuals is a carry-over from the pre-reason eras, I suspect. Forget my name, cast it away as the dust of history. Remember only what is true. If I have helped you discern truth from falsehood, that's good enough for me.

One more thing, because it's a pet peeve and I see it on often on these boards: Anarchism / anti-capitalism are both older and broader than Karl Marx. I would date the spirit of anarchism at least back to the early 1700s with folks like François-Marie Arouet (AKA Voltaire). Furthermore, there are thinkers alive now that are just as insightful as Marx, Engels, or Lenin. Just off the top of my head Ken Robinson, Michelle Alexander, John Hunter, Richard Wolff, Naomi Klein, Noam Chomsky, Michael Albert, and Slavoj Žižek.

A narcissist knows a narcissist when he sees one.

That aside, yes, there are some nice similarities that prima facie suggest future bullishness.  But of course, past performance does not guarantee future blah blah blah.

Thats Marxism 101 for ya.  maybe change the title of this thread now.

Beliathon, if you are going to quote Marx, you should really give attribution.

From each according to their ability, to each according to their need. The way healthcare is handled in the civilized nations of the world - excluded from the profit motive.

Decent healthcare, education, shelter, clothes, and food shall be provided to all human beings as a birthright. The rest can be sorted out later as it's unimportant relative to what I've just mentioned.

 

OK I will laugh now.   



If we don't land in prison camp, how do you decide who has the power "to run things"?

Fixed that for you. Do the chart again with satoshis per dollar and you'll see we've still got a long way to grow.

Today 1 USD = ~335,000 Satoshi = 0.00335 BTC. We can call fiat dead when 1 USD = 1 Satoshi or less

Not sure if you are being facetious, but thank you for posting this.
There is ALWAYS a bull case and a bear case. 

I think we are all a little tired of self proclaimed prophets that think they know
with certainty how a market is going to behave.

Folks, you all got it wrong. We don't want to know how many $$ we get for 1 Bitcoin.
What we really need to know is: how many BTCs do we get for 1 USD.
I can't see a big difference between the USD chart and any other scamcoin:

I guess people see what they want to see. Even tho there are similarities in charts, that in no way is making it certain that the aftermath
will provide us with the same results as in previous instances.
I'm not saying bitcoin is failing or anything similar, just that it will take some time for the price to build up, because like they say, progress is a slow process.

cheers

OP

Nice charts. I appreciate good technical analysis. A am a chartist as well with many years experience in the stock market before looking at bitcoin.

People may say that past performance does not equal future results, but what they fail to understand is that past performance is normally the best indicator for future performance.

The two currently coexist and both currently have value. My prediction is fiat will not be around in 5,000 years, probably a lot sooner.

It's a must-buy cheap coins until fiat no longer exists. Fiat is intrinsically worthless in a cryptocurrency world. All fiat will regress to this true value sooner or later.

Got it, you mean until $400, it's a must-buy cheap coins.

I expect the pattern at this point is going to trigger recognition in a lot of people at the same time, especially if the price has been climbing rapidly for many consecutive weeks.

Kind reminder, Beliathon

There is obviously a pattern. We are at the beginning of a recovery here. The shape looks the same, but the time scale is unknown. We could have a lot more sideways before a rise. I think the next boom will be timed just before the halving next year.

Calm down, comrade. We can sort out all such details in the thought-provoking environment of the gulags. Good old physical labor makes for a strong and healthy cardiovascular system, which brings lots of oxygen-rich blood to our brains for figuring out how to transcend this hell we've created. Now you can put those fancy golfclubs to good use breaking rocks, or we can melt them down to make pots and pans for the Public Kitchens. Your call.



Laugh now capitalist, but soon the power relations will once again be inverted to the peasantry, and it won't be so funny then.

The perfect storm is forming.

A long boring quiet time in the markets doesn't imply price is going to probably break to the upside.  The only thing that makes it more likely is because we know the fundamentals are strong.  Lots of VC money, increasing regulatory certainty, the halving of 2016, etc.  

In fact, the idea that the bull run of 2013 was a larger version of a bull run earlier and therefore can be extrapolated to 2015-2106 to predict an even bigger bull, isn't even pattern recognition IMO, or at least not pattern recognition that is going to make you money.  It's really a strong belief in the fundamentals and then looking at the charts to try to justify that belief.  

"The plain fact is that the planet does not need more 'successful' people...
...It needs people who live well in their places"

Are "those few of us gifted with exceptional intellectual acuity" also the ones who get to tell the others exactly where their place is in life? How do you rightfully determine that, without freedom and a free market? Ranting about phony "capitalism" is fine, but if you are not in support of free markets (which do allow for "rational self-interest"), then what type of system are you 'promoting'?

Why $400 on purpose ?

Anyone who isn't buying when it passes 400 is mad. Also, you should read my last post before this one.

There is a long, boring quiet time (base-building) prior to the second large rally. We are nearing (or at) the end of a similar phase, so it does indeed look "strongly bullish". You don't have to wait until $550 (for example) to call it the (probable) start of a major bull market.

Those few of us gifted with exceptional intellectual acuity have an ethical duty to serve the rest of humanity with honesty and benevolence.

Perhaps the greatest tragedy of our time is that we've fostered a culture which teaches young people the opposite, teaches them to use their gifts only for personal gain, to claw their way up the violence-backed hierarchy. This sick culture of self worship - with the forced collapsing down of our collective empathy spheres it produces - is an ethical perversion, a travesty of epic proportions, and the cause of vast unknowable human suffering. Any sane, reasonably maladjusted 21^st century free-thinking person will tell you it's plain to see: capitalism is an ethical abomination, the only real crisis, and the only problem worth solving.

Make no mistake folks, this is our generation's slavery. Where you fall on this issue will determine whether or not humanity eternal remembers you fondly as one who fought to improve civilization. Yes, I realize that's an appeal to vanity, but I'm vain so I assume many of you are as well. Be remembered well, not as a blissfully ignorant wage-slavery/capitalism-apologist hyperconsumer petit-bourgeois shitbag. Abolish capitalism.



I hope you didn't actually believe I was going to leave you with nothing more than bullish graphs. This thread is about pattern recognition, I have no intention of denying you the whole truth.

sources confirm it

I Saw it, I like it

please don't do that...switch timeframes on me and expect
to argue the same point.  Yes the 30m chart is bullish. 

normally you can look at the last 30,40,50 bars or so
on any given chart when determining trend or momentum
although you can go further back when referencing major
support/resistance.

This time could be different, an altogether new beast. During the transition to this next order of magnitude, many wealthy smart people are going to recognize that this pattern will not stop until all fiat wealth has been consumed. The new post-boom high could end up being much higher than 2,500 $.

My findings concur with the OP. However I would like to add the following analysis:


It looks like that after breaking the level of the 2nd bull trap after the bubble, a new bubble was provoked last time. If it would play out similarly this time, this would mean first breaking through the 600USD level, probably hovering around a bit on that level before shooting to a new ATH.

My prediction to break 600USD is more or less at the end of this year. Then, with the priced in halving and some other major events, Bitcoin will shoot up.

You and I must have different definitions of either "currently" or "sideways".

it does not look "strongly bullish".

we were in a bear trend for a long time. yes we broke a major trendline
and we no longer see lower lows or lower highs, but the market is currently
sideways.  You can see one higher high and one higher low but not enough yet
to really say the market is definitely in a bull trend, let alone a strong one.

Wait for more price action to unfold, however if you were trading this you could wait until price turns down and then fails before before placing a long order with your stop below the most recent swing low.

It's not just the price that matches during these "patterns" either. It's the volume matching on the peaks and troughs that people really need to pay attention to. This is Commodities 101, IMHO.

Case in point:

The odds are extremely strong that I am correct, not only because of the supporting evidence above, but also because I am rarely incorrect.

It looks strongly bullish, and the odds are strong you are correct, but...
When predictable or "obvious patterns" get broken, sometimes you can get a surprising big move in the opposite direction.

Seriously though bitfuckers, next bubble takes us to 2500 - 3k easy.



GET HYPED!

Diversity is a strength in a technological system, just as it is a strength in a biological system. That there have been more crypto births and deaths in a shorter timespan is a signal of the vitality of this ecosystem.

That fiat scrips are ancient and stagnant is a signal of their impending death.

Yea but I bet if you added up all of the different crypto currencies and compared how many are still around compared to fiat, fiat would be far far ahead.

That's because any 6 year old can create his own crypto currency in less than an afternoon (and buy there own coin for a few dollars).  This is not a good reference to make.

Patterns unfold all the time in any tradable instrument.  
The best chart readers can at best hope to gain a small
edge, and each new bar on a chart can start a new trend
in either direction.

Right now we are in a trading range and we haven't
even broken out to the upside yet... And even if/when
we do, that by itself is no reason to believe we're going to see
an exponentially bigger bull trend that would take us past the last all-time-high.

The reason to invest in Bitcoin is because of what it is
and what it does, not because you think you saw something
on a chart.

I'd like to take this moment to remind our readers that of the many thousands of centrally-controlled currencies created throughout history, only about 200 of them survive today. Crypto has existed for a mere six years, and already there are more living cryptos than there are fiat scrips.

Gold has watched many of them come and go, although there are many thousands more which predate even gold. Historically, centralized money has a very ominous extinction rate.

Irrelevant, as fiat scrip valuation is faith/myth-based (note collapsing euro), while Bitcoin's value is self-evident scientific truth. Bitcoin is the atheism of money; all fiat scrips are competing religions by contrast. As with actual religions, all fiat myth-money is doomed to die here in the information age.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/why-bitcoin-value-doesnt-matter/

Oops. Fuck it, Microsoft can suck a fat dick.

Did you corelated these things too before pattern recognizing?
1- Total bitcoins in circulations.
2- Total marketcaps in these 2 time periods.
3- Total bitcoin addresses were seen on network then and now.
4- Total transaction volume.

If you didn't check those things then you can not say they look same.

The fact that your Windows isn't activated doesn't mean you're stealing from someone, it just means it's inactivated, lol


You said that past performance doesn't affect future performance... So future higher floors might not be possible

Past performance: Bitcoin began as having a zero dollar market cap / no value. Bitcoin now has a ~3.5 billion us dollar market cap. Since the value began at zero, this represents an ∞% increase in value in about six years.

Future performance: I'll leave the implications to the reader.

Actually pretty good catch, but remember that past performance doesnt translate into future performance, even tho future bubbles with increasingly higher floors are unavoidable with Bitcoin. A question of 2+2=4. It's destiny that we keep hitting 2k, 3k, 4k... until about year 2100.

Nonsense. Clearly you have photoshopped this image to slander my good name. I would never steal copy from beloved corporation Micro$oft.

Ninja screenshot correction

What? You're talking nonsense. Please make some sense, new friend.

When I see what, your/the person who took the screenshot's Windows asking for activation?

This would suit the Economics forum better. As for my opinion... Graphs only tell half or even less than half of the story