Topic: People are too focused on history repeating itself (Read 465 times)

Majority of investors and traders rely on price history repeating itself that source of information motivated a lot of them to invest or tigger a trade, likely the price action of Bitcoin is mostly based on it past history behavior, next another halving of the coin is coming up speculation and prediction based on the same event in past shows a massive pump in the price of Bitcoin during that period thus this had motivated a lot of investors to buy and accumulate in the last Bear market, thus all these are basic criteria and factors that must be considered before taking a crypto investment or trading decision, an investor don't just invest blindly with the hope of earning quick money.

There is nothing wrong that we all hope and focus on history because it has happened three times and everyone has the right to expect history to repeat itself again. But we should not put all our hope in history repeating without a backup plan for the opposite scenario. I think everyone should have their own plan. For example, what will we do if history doesn't repeat itself and we don't have the bull season we expected? To me, if history doesn't repeat itself, it doesn't mean bitcoin will never go up in price. So I will continue to hold until bitcoin price increases.

You can't blame them either because most of us are hopeful about the bullish event to come. People are indeed holding their coins and it wasn't wasted and in vain, in fact, they got rewards that could make them say "This is it".

Well, we can't expect that everything will happen in the coming days similar to the past but what we have in mind is that Bitcoin will soon to bullish again.
I can still remember my first bullish experience last 2017-2018, the majority had been selling their coins earlier but the price continued to skyrocket reaching its ATH. Perhaps, it was an unexpected scenario but it happened the next bull season when the price made another breaking record, and that made them think that the next bull run would be high.

As we have witnessed and know that the market has a 4 year cycle, and it has repeated 3 times and people are expecting history to repeat again. But we don't have any rules or laws to guarantee that this will always happen. That means history may not repeat itself and we will create new history, which is entirely possible. Therefore, we have the right to expect history to repeat itself, but we should not be too subjective in thinking that it will definitely repeat itself.

It's understandable that you're concerned about history repeating itself, especially in the world of cryptocurrencies. Here are some insights to address your questions and provide some perspective:-

In the past Bitcoin bear market, there weren't many Black Swan events. Historically, the cryptocurrency market has faced challenges like regulatory changes and market sentiment shifts, but it's unusual for major global events like the COVID-19 pandemic to directly impact it.

You're correct that the Black Swan event in 2020 was indeed the COVID-19 pandemic. While we can't predict the future with certainty, the likelihood of another event on the scale of a global pandemic occurring again is relatively low. Markets have adapted to the reality of the pandemic, and it's not a guarantee that such an event will repeat in the near future.

Regarding the FTX Collapse, it's essential to remember that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and susceptible to sudden shocks, but not every significant market event qualifies as a Black Swan. The concept of a Black Swan event is something unpredictable and rare. It's unlikely that these events are orchestrated solely to manipulate markets, as they have far-reaching consequences that go beyond cryptocurrencies.

I still think it will not be easy for bitcoin to continue rising from now on, and we will start a bull season from now on. We will still have other price drops until the halving event, but if one is expecting another dump to create a new bottom for bitcoin, I don't believe that will happen either. We have truly hit the bottom of this bearish cycle and what we are about to experience are only mild shakes that are not cause for concern. I don't know if there will be another black swan because it's the future so it's impossible to predict, but in my mind, the worst is over.

FTX collapse will cost him a maximum of 100 years, I don't think it a coincidence to stage such a stupid move just to hurt people, remember he has been lobbying politicians because of his political ambition and because of that his flat girlfriend, they destroy many homes and dreams, I'm not sure if FTX was planned in the first place and the debts surrounding them blow everything, some people wanted to gain from the collapse and that's why an insider leaked the financial status of the exchange, you remembered that so many funds were moved through back door, some people believe it was Sam and some people think it was part of the team that wanted to get a share of the pyramid scheme.

I can say that COVID was a mechanical virus, it was engineered to destroy things because the source was from China when investigations were carried out and what it destroyed the most, was the traditional market, almost every stock in the market was down to zero and bitcoin been an alternative to them crashed as well out of fear because people need food and health during that time, when there is war, drought and health concerns, investments doesn't matter those times.

Bitcoin is maturing as we digress over the future, we don't know what tomorrow pregnant but I can say with confidence that such things might be difficult to see around again and that is why I'm skeptical about how this year bull run will grow like the past ROI we have seen, I'm of the opinion people should expect less from the next bull run. 3X max is what I think might happen.  

The thing with black swans is that they cannot be predicted and they could be anything that shakes the foundations of the economy and the world, not only a pandemic, and while black swans are rare we cannot really discard the possibly of another one appearing at any moment, still I think bitcoin is strong enough to withstand it, as even if the price went down very quickly on March of 2020, bitcoin recovered and it reached a new series of ATHs.

Events like the FTX Collapse (anyway f*ck you SBF, and you deserved being jailed for 115 years), only has a short term effect in the markets.

When COVID struck the world, and every country went to lockdown, people panicked, and so does the market, but after that, it went up, and up, and up, until we've seen it going to as high as ~$69,000. As for the FTX collapse, it might be the final event that might cause the market to dump before going higher, and higher again, but who knows. Maybe the Blackrock Spot Bitcoin ETF application being rejected would have a much greater impact not only in the crypto market, but all of the markets than the FTX collapse.

Well, anything can happen in the market, and that's the reason I always think that there's a chance that what happened in the past might not happen in the future. After all, past performances doesn't mean the same in the future. Criticize me, but I'm a believer of the 4-year cycle because I've seen it happen twice. I just don't expect too much on it though, and I'm always ready if the other thing happens.

Sheeple are going to sheep bro.

But I think the big money boys are going to push BTC super high have the sheeple fomo in and bust them wide open.

This time we will do some really high number and some really big drops.

up to 500k back down to 75k

There doesn't need to be a black swan event and people should not expect something like COVID-19 to happen again because it was disastrous for the whole world, many many lives were lost, and people lost their loved ones because of the virus and its effects. And we have already seen Bitcoin touching $16k in this cycle, what else would be a lower bottom for people who are expecting that? We have already been through that phase and people should know that.

Expecting that Bitcoin will go down again from here and mark another bottom below $16k is unrealistic and if that happens, we are not having a bull run after the halving event this time around because it will take years for the price to recover again from that point as it already took more than a year for it to reach this position from $16k.

There is nothing to ignore - everything is still at risk and each of us needs to consider the risks as best we can. History may or may not repeat itself at all - but everything is always a possibility. Markets will be impacted by many things whether they are bad or not - but we no longer expect major FUD that cause severe market crashes to occur ahead of the halving or after.

Let's hope FOMO is more likely than FUD and heightened concerns about losing value - be optimistic and diversify your risk by only investing in the long term instead of short term volatility.

The global coronavirus pandemic has left its mark, but people are behaving as they do in situations of fear. They want maximum security and prepare for it as best they can, and in this situation they didnt believe in Bitcoin, which is strange. The selling of Bitcoin and on that one day in March 2020, Bitcoin go down about -35%. What Im trying to say is that people are not going to change, they often act the same and thats why I think history is repeating itself. Quite simply.

The crypto market does have its own cycles, bearish, bullish, and in between. There will definitely be lots of events during this event. Even during a bearish era, there will usually be some news that is categorized as black swam events, whether it is directly related to the crypto market or not. However, if you look at the Covid incident, it is truly an extraordinary event throughout the world, not only for crypto markets, but more into the real world of humans. The crisis that occurred was not only about the economy but also health and various other crises that occurred during the Covid period. Until finally conditions could improve and we could escape from it.

On the other hand, there was some FUD and also negative news that really surprised us during the bearish period, which made the feelings of many people in the crypto world even worse at that time, and made the market really drop. And in the end, it can return to normal and fight again like now. Previously, in the bearish period of the past, there was also various bad news, one of which was the XRP problem, and others. In my opinion, in the future, it is possible that incidents like this will occur again, maybe not exactly the same, but maybe one day there will be FUD that really shakes the crypto world directly again. I don't know if FUD like this is deliberate or not, but in almost every bearish era, there will be a big FUD that complements it.

Bitcoin market is known to have a 4 year cycle.  Having a cycle means things will keep on repeating itself in a loop.  This simply means that the previous market movement will likely reflect on the present and future movement thus the idea of history repeats itself is justified.

For those who are wondering what black swan is, this article[1] is a good read  it also give an example of an event that can be considered as one of the black swan of cryptocurrency.  It is all about a rare incident that affect the crypto market negatively.  Thinking about it, I think the FTX event is not the only one good example of that thing, there is also this Terra Luna collapse and many other centralized services that file bankruptcy and affect the market negatively.

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[1] https://woo.org/blog/en/what-are-black-swan-events-and-how-to-be-prepared

The thing about Bitcoin is that it’s literally programmed to be cyclical. The halving nearly mandates that the future will rhyme with the past. This will be true until it isn’t, and when it is no longer true the losses of investment for mining companies will be so great that they are almost forced to prop up the value of Bitcoin to stay alive.

History repeating itself is possible but not all the time. The idea of black swan reverting the price of bitcoin and possibly heading back to the expected bottom price is not possible at this time. Considering what is happening, bitcoin price will continue to go up, drop a little, and move up again, even till halving, and afterwards, until the end of the bull run.

The crypto market is currently fixated on the spot Bitcoin ETF approval and the mood is positive. What if the opposite happens, can we talk about a black swan effect? I think yes. In the absence of a confirmation and a strong perception in the crypto market that will perhaps start a bull run, the markets can be expected to react as sharply as covid and ftx. In this case, it is inevitable that we will experience the black swan effect. With a negative decision, a new FUD will be created and institutions will leave the market. Because a negative news in a market that is clamped on ethics approval will accelerate the exit of more institutions from the market, weaken the increase in competition and slow down the visibility of cryptocurrencies.

So what’s your point? There will always be some unexpected stuff happening in the markets that’s just how life is. Otherwise everybody would know the next move in the markets and nobody would bet against it. In this situation nobody would make any money because everyone would be on the same side of the trade. Barcelona F.C. has to lose every once in a while so those guys who make surprise bets can win sometimes.

Bitcoin will go up and down like it always did before. We shouldn’t focus on the prices that much. The fundamentals are way more important. As long aa bitcoin network is up and running, there is nothing to worry about.

The price of Bitcoin would keep moving whether bullishly or bearish but what I know is that we should be expecting a bull market sooner before the end of the this year. It is true that the market is still ranging and this would be a good time for us to buy now as a low and affordable price so that we can sell when the bull market finally comes. We need to keep our eyes on what is about to come not the silence movement that us happening in the market. Bullish would be a moon coin soon so we don't have to panic at all even for one second.

So far, Bitcoin is not so responsive with some that occur in the world today, some of them such as The Fed still maintain the benchmark interest rates with fairly high numbers, besides that the Middle East conflict and began to heat up to get a reaction from a neighboring country to take part In this conflict, it does not make Bitcoin shifted to the previous price.
I think for today the bullish encouragement is greater than bearish, because we will move to Halving Bitcoin, we will also look forward to ETF Bitcoin present among institutional investors that have the potential to increase the mass adoption of Bitcoin spots to stock investors, gold and others.

But to be a concern also that Binance has several problems that have not been completed, I feel afraid also if Binance follows like FTX, it will give a big blow to the market if it occurs.

I agree with your opinion, but the conclusion is not on Fomo, because in my opinion he analyzes because of doubts that exist in him so he calculates it, he may be more careful in investing. Waiting for the lowest price today in the current cycle is silly, because we have touched it at the $ 15K level, and that is the end of 2022.

I don't get in what manner you said Covid was the black swan for the crypto market, because in Covid the trading volume increased, people sitting at home started to trade in crypto, and they got motivated by its usage. But talking hypnotically, if COVID was the black swan in 2020, then the Chinese ban were the black swan back in time. which caused the crypto market to lose a lot of attraction. The events were around 6 to 10 times, I think it's a hard guess.
How can you call covid the only black swan event because according to WikipediaI think it was and then the lawsuits from the SEC against different cryptocurrencies can be count as Black swan.

It does not imply that if a disaster or tragedy occurs, the price of cryptocurrency will completely collapse. In fact, if you stock, there is a good chance that the price will fall significantly. And cryptocurrency is not the same as equities or FX. If something awful happens, I believe that the price of cryptocurrency will rise due to its volatility.

I feel that there is always market manipulation. We can't always tell when and where the manipulation occurs, but we can take steps to prevent being deceived. Backtested plans combined with discipline are very important.

When the market is bullish everyone then bullish and when it's bearish everyone turn bearish, it's almost like people don't want the market to dump from here on, you'd better to lose guide, because people who believe the bear market is over are the next group of people that will leave the market if a last effective dump happens.

I am not going to let the fear of market dump to rob me of my crypto assets, 2020 seem like a bad year but thanks to that Covid many people are able to buy Bitcoin for a cheaper price, after the crash it doesn't even take too long before the recovery starts, it's like the world was waiting for that opportunity, every big dollars found it's way into the market and Bitcoin started surging hard.

It's possible that the same thing will happen in 2024, and it's also possible that we already seen the bottom in 2022 but why care so much about this? If it happened you should take the advantages because it's a new opportunity, oh yes it could happen, so make sure you gather some USD so that you won't miss the opportunity.

What I believe is that a way can and wants to be created to be able to do everything better like in 2017 that everyone expected , and we are in a time similar to that because the price of bitcoin rose in the month of December and after that it was when in that time it reached $20k and that was a boom everyone believed that it was going to reach $50k and everyone bought and bought bitcoin, I want to repeat that, what I don't want it to be repeated is that then the price went up a lot because I suffered a lot time to rise again, the good thing is that when bitcoin rises , it reaches higher and higher, because then it reached 70 thousand USD and that was something that I liked.

This is wild but I lowkey wanting to get at that level. I personally expect to reach 100k next bull market, expecting it to go past 100k is what motivates me to continue to accumulate more bitcoin but yeah it's hard to really pinpoint what price bitcoin can go, all we have is the historical events and charts that we can use to speculate where we are headed.

Reaching 500k as a bitcoin price never really slipped my mind, though I hope that we can see it next bull market LOL.

I never have be a super bull.

but if we are in the

2015
2016
2017 loop

then
2023. 42k dec 1 48k dec 31
2024. a quick jan sell off to 40k a slow grind up to 65k by dec 2024
2025. at least 500k by nov-dec


So I am hoping to see a super bull market.

And they are correct, Bitcoin goes on a 4 year cycle and that's what is going to happen once again and history will repeat however not each move will be of similar percentage gain/decrease.
With the help of previous cycle charts, I was able to decode the down move of at least 50%. And it went correct. And the up move of 10x will be correct too from the bottom price of $15.4k really soon.

Covid was unexpected by the public but actually predictable and predicted a few years earlier based on scientific evidence as a major potential challenge for humanity. But looking past that, Bitcoin recovered pretty quickly and managed to go on a bull run when the world was still frozen by the pandemic. It was around $8k-$9k before the pandemic announcement, then it hit nearly $5k following the announcement, but by the beginning of May (so, less than 2 months later) it was back to its pre-pandemic level.
In my opinion, it shows that even a pretty huge 'black swan' event can be handled really fast and really well by the market. 2 months is nothing, it was a really fast recovery. And as for FTX, its impact was way smaller, as others have already mentioned.

I think we are over the effects of ftx collapse and i don't believe it would have any effect on the bull run, except another exchange bites the dust during the period leading up to the halving event, and that is something that can happen, but for now i cannot predict that.

We cannot predict the future, and all we have is history to have an idea of what could happen, if there is a black swan event that happens during the halving period, then it would be an unexpected one that wasn't part of the 'script' in history and we have to accept it. I believe the present economic situation could also affect the halving, but we have to wait and see.

Tbh this bottom everyone keeps talking about is to generalized!!

If people missed the price of the 100s which was a real discounted price then let's forget about it coming this low as many users are more than ready to buy should it go lower than expected which will push it back up..

So whatever bottom we are anticipating Is what we seeing now.

If we are going to add big exchange hacks to be black swan events then we could consider Mtgox and Ftx hack to be such events...


In some circles the categorise the COVID19 pandemic to be both a white and black swan event because it would have being contained in China had they blown the whistle early but they kept about it until it spread like wildfire then the world was made aware of this way to late which caused unforeseeable damage.

I don't know, regulators would have picked on Sam's fraudulent activities especially that financial crimes all happen in the past and not present for them to be detected ...and him not being a well experienced CEO in the crypto circles it was expected that he would f@#& up which imo makes this a White Swan event.

People definitely want the price of Bitcoin to go back to where it once was. We who are Bitcoin users never want the value of Bitcoin to go down rather we always hope that the value of Bitcoin goes up a lot. Bitcoin Price Hits Record High We want Bitcoin to touch its high price again. The crypto market is completely different because you cannot say anything with certainty here. Although we are waiting for the market to move to a better position, the market can go to any position. Don't know if history will repeat itself but we want the Bitcoin market to stay at its peak price again.

Seriously it will be too risky to wait for a dump maybe next year to invest in bitcoin, my advice has always been invest or accumulate whenever you have the opportunity there is no perfect time to do that than when you have the funds. Although if you ask me I would say yes I expect a bitcoin correction after all this pump before the main halving it self.

Yes history doesn’t repeat itself but as for bitcoin I don’t see any other thing that can actually give one a very good speculative idea than just looking back at the past history. The likes of FTX or any other exchange collapse are just short time hype, the real black swan will be when we are face with a prolonged recession and interest rates gets higher, or when a world war breaks out. Aside this two cases bitcoin wouldn’t face any major fall

Bitcoin usually don't need a blackswan, it only needs the halving for it to kick start the bull run. But lets say the blackswan in 2020 was indeed the Covid, during that time people received their stimulus packages. The get money for free.

This time there is no stimulus but somebody figured its the ETF that is going to be the blackswan. If we are to keep waiting for it then maybe its not really the blackswan we wait for.

Right. It is important to recognize historical patterns in the crypto market but waiting too long for the perfect moment can lead to missed opportunities. Timing is crucial and being overly cautious might result in buying at higher prices during FOMO situations. It's essential to find a balance between analyzing trends and making informed decisions.

I don't think that there will be any black swan anymore as bitcoin price has seen the worst in this circle and the market has gotten to the minimal bear price when we had the crash of FTX and Luna. I don't also believe that bitcoin price can dip to 20k again in this circle as we are expecting the approval of Bitcoin ETF by next year January. If this is done successful, we will witness the price of bitcoin pumping because a lot of people will adopt bitcoin.

History repeating itself, doesn't mean that catastrophes are bound to happen at the same time in bitcoin circle, what it means is that bitcoin price will always have an ATH at every four years and there are events that will always lead to high demand of bitcoin and low demand of bitcoin since it is a commodity.

Sometimes, we tend to overthink things. If we look at the history of the Bitcoin market, we see a simple pattern: the bear market and the bull market. It doesn't matter if people think a bear market or a price drop is coming because those are usually temporary. Eventually, the bull market returns, and people start to get excited, leading to FOMO and making the market more bullish.

I guess Taleb would insult you for calling that a Black Swan event . I mean, because in this space at that time, everyone was swimming naked (maybe except for Binance, who was the FTX killer).

I tend to think that we haven't touched the bottom, especially because there are still many projects overpriced, not just shits, but legitimate projects that are just projects not worth the billions shown by the Market Cap.

Anyways, I love the subject: People are too focused on history repeating itself. There are so many new variables in the equation now compared to four years ago: all the DeFi with collaterals, agents with resources arbitrating, etc. I have no idea what would happen, but I know for a fact that nobody does (except for the ones who could pull some triggers, although they won't know the end impact).

We can not find the bottom but we can find bottom area where we can do accumulation and wait for a bottom confirmation then a bull run starts from it.

I don't care but you can find black swan events or fud attempts that affected the market in previous bear markets.
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-is-dead/
How to find?

Use the Bitcoin chart, find big daily red candle and search for information about possible black swan events, fuds around that day with two above websites.

The Bitcoin Crash of 2021 Compared to Past Sell-Offs

That's probably because OP has some bad experience at that time and OP surrounded himself with people that has experienced the same thing so OP concluded that 2020 was a bad year. I guess it depends on how you look at it, if you're a bearish investor at that time, you're probably creaming your pants during the black swan event but if you're not one then you're probably having a different reaction. In regards to the title, I guess that people are way too focused on the repetition in history is by the fact that bitcoin's pattern throughout it's Genesis is almost close to being the same, a halving being followed by a huge pump that resulted in a new ATH, if that's the pattern that keeps on repeating, you can't really blame the people if they're focused on that alone.

In my opinion and just seeing, not all crypto communities are focused on the past, because most of those who believe in Bitcoin or cryptocurrency are still looking to the future and not the past.

That's why many believe and do dca in any crypto assets they believe in because most people know that they won't get any profit in the past, but in the future, that hasn't happened yet. That's what's being prepared, including me, who is also preparing for the upcoming halving next year.

Exactly, bitcoin and the market have had a very good year during the Covid pandemic. Simply because the government has printed money and injected it into the economy to save the economy, and people have also taken advantage of the time quarantined at home to participate in online investment. Therefore, online investment channels at that time had a boom year, not as bad as the OP assumed. The Covid pandemic was a black swan for the world but it wasn't exactly a black swan for our markets at the time.

You are speaking as if 2020 was a bad year for Bitcoin. It wasn't. There was COVID, yeah, but it was a fantastic year for Bitcoin. It was as though there wasn't a global pandemic happening, wreaking havoc in every country's economy. The year opened with the price of Bitcoin at around $6,000. By the time the year closed, the price had already risen more than $20,000. And then the rise continued the following year even though it was still a pandemic year. Although the price corrected around the middle of 2021, it quickly recovered and registered an ATH by the last quarter.

There will always be fuds who would not even mind to say there will be a Black swan event every year because they don't have basic understanding and Black swan events are not something which every year or in every few years. It's a common thing people should buckle up and ready for upcoming bull run rather than fearing for one more bear market. Already there has been too much of negativity in the market and thanks to recent Bitcoin pump they are silenced and I am afraid even if Bitcoin drops to $30k they will come back with they fuds

The next black swan event, more bitcoin will re-enter market circulation. Do you still remember that the bitcoin in the MtGox hack was in the stage of being repaid to creditors? While I doubt it will ever come, I just think it could potentially factor into the next price crash as will the impact of the covid19 pandemic.

Huh? People are expecting a black swan event to repeat itself??

Would be very weird is people are actually thinking that. Since, ya know, black swan events like the Covid crash are literally the opposite of things that repeat themselves.

Anyone who still thinks bitcoin is heading back into the bear market just doesn't understand the basics of Bitcoin's four year market cycle. Jan/Feb/Mar very clearly broke out of the FTX super bottom of the bear market, and March broke out of the whole bottom range. Bear market ended in March. Outside of a black swan event, which of course not repeatable and not something expected, by that point there was little to no chance of revisiting lows. Anyone still talking about Bitcoin going back into a bear market is just a beginner who doesn't understand the market cycle.

The black swan event in 2020 was one of the events that caused the price to make a rapid correction, but the price was able to rise again due to subsequent economic policies that approved stimulus packages and it was easy to obtain loans with an interest rate close to zero, and this matter may happen again if the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates initially. From the second quarter of next year.
Therefore, during the period of 2020, I think that the price dealt poorly with one event, which was the collapse of Luna more than FTX.

if things go well, history will repeat itself, but it will be closer to what happened in 2016/2017.

Bitcoin's Bottom has nothing to do with the Black Swan events, such events happen while moving in free space, I'm sure more are on the way, they just push or pull the market temporarily, As a fundamental analyst (Hehe not praising myself at least able to read something based on my little journey), What I've experienced in the market, and what I understood about the physiology of the Bitcoins cycle, I can say that Black swap events really don't impact that much if you increase your view from short term to long term. The market (Bitcoin) recovers keeping the narrative, and potential in consideration.

So OP, the Bottom is confirmed at least in my view and I'm sure most Onchain analysts & market experts will agree with me, we are on the ending edge of the Accumulation zone of this cycle and the way ahead is highly Bullish. Those who are waiting for black swan events to accumulate on the bottom are in a big mess, becasue there can be a black swan event, and may not be there gambling at the rare opportunity because we cant be even sure about the next cycle's bottom will it be that lower on which point we are standing right now.

Do you mean we haven't hit the bottom of this bear season yet?  if you don't consider FTX, the war between Russia and Ukraine, peak inflation as black swans, then what do you think black swans are?  I think in contrast to you, the lowest bottom was $15k and it was done in 2021, we won't have any more strong dumping in the market.  of course, the market will not easily enter the bull season from now on, there will be a lot of adjustments until the bull season really comes.  but if there is a strong dump, I don't think it will happen, those who missed the opportunity to buy at 15k USD, they missed the bottom.

When analyzing the market and history one should look at the reasons for every event.
That's because history doesn't repeat itself, instead the same events have the same results. For example in the first 10 years of bitcoin, the global economy was not the same as in the second decade (ie. today). So something like halving, some positive adoption news, etc. had a similar and positive effect.

Now the same thing happens again meaning something like halving, some positive adoption news, etc. will have a similar and positive effect.
However, that is not the only thing affecting the market. As I said the global economy is different and it significantly affects bitcoin market.

Now you have to also consider the recession accompanied by inflation and the effects all that is going to have on bitcoin.
That is why in 2020 with the Pandemic and the recession we saw the strong bull run that were supposed to get bitcoin into 6 digits realm stopped abruptly and gave its place to a bear market.
BTW I don't put too much thought into something like FTX collapse. These things never have any long term effects on the overall trends. They only create chaos in short term.

The upcoming halving is going to be the same as before. However we should now consider the effects of the ongoing recession. Without interest rates coming down we can only see a small bull run. With lower interest rates on the other hand, we can see a massive rise unlike any previous rallies because of the accumulated potential.

The peculiarities of next year's events are undeniable. Those still expecting another dump before the anticipated bull market might be left behind.  As we approach next year, it is becoming increasingly clear that we will see many positive news that will make next year's halving the greatest we have seen so far. Just imagine Bitcoin ETF approval by Jabuaty 2024 following Bitcoin halving by April, we don't need to think deep to realise that this will be exceptionally explosive.

History repeating itself is common scenario in crypto market in both bullrun and bearish market since there’s always a correction after a pump and a recovery after dump. There’s nothing wrong to think about that. It’s only wrong if you just keep thinking on it that result you to unable to purchase crypto just because you wait for that bottom.

I believe people that think like this are those who will purchase at the top when they are already FOM O when Bitcoin pump hard.

The market is very unpredictable, black swan or no black swan, but traces in the past have proved many times that the market always follows the same pattern as prior years and events of the halvings and bull run. This is why many people are still waiting for it to drop to its lowest price. Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow; history may or may not repeat itself. others who are still waiting for the black swan believe it will occur based on their personal experience or future projections, while others who feel it may have occurred after the FTX collapse are fine. It is everyone's predicted choice, and you can't change it.

The Covid dump had a much greater impact on the market than the FTX collapse, so it seems to me that comparing these events in terms of significance is not very correct. Frankly, I expect that we have yet to encounter a black swan in this cycle and this will be the last major dump before the bull market begins. It’s difficult for me to say what this could be, perhaps some kind of new pandemic, or a significant escalation of the military conflict, but so far Bitcoin is not very responsive to any negative news, which means it’s not time yet.

I can't say much about the past Bitcoin bear market but I was present and aware of the 2018 bear market and also it's bull market, the black swan event that happened in 2020 was because of CoVID, and no one was expecting this to happen, Bitcoin was slowly on it's way to recovery in 2019 November and December until 2020 hits hard.

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Fast forward to this bear market, many people really believe that we haven't seen the bottom yet, and some believe that the next black swan event will bring the last bottom for Bitcoin, I do have some questions about all this.

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1. In the past Bitcoin bear market, how many black swan event happened at the time?

2. I did my own research and black swan event started in 2020 and it's also in the chart history, I could be wrong but correct me if I am, but the black swan event happens cos of COVID in 2020, what makes you believe that another will happen?

3. What if the Black Swan event of this present bear market was the FTX Collapse?

What if the first one ( 2020 crash ) was an unexpected crash to manipulate the masses and the Second one is to make people keep waiting and waiting for something that's not coming until it's too late?