Topic: People don't understood btc etf exacly (Read 434 times)

This ETF techically IPO ,so this year 2024 they will be collecting funds from ETF investors they collect funds and buy with small quantity so price of BTC don't go high and they can buy with lower price by using the ETF investors funds.
So that's why it will be sideways market anyone can see that they have control over btc price with futures not spot.

        -    That's probably normal because the big companies that are approved for the spot bitcoin ETF have the capability to manipulate the market somehow; that's the purpose of the spot ETF, if I'm not mistaken.

But of course, let's see what can happen in a few months. Since not all companies approved by the SEC have yet purchased Bitcoin to hold it, no final allocation has been made for it. Because if all those companies have bought bitcoin, there will be an increase in the price of bitcoin in the market.

It Will take some time until price goes up blackrock collecting funds first with btc. IPO
Next year most likely real bull run.

it's true what you say, Bitcoin ETF owners don't have Bitcoin at all, they just put their money in third parties and the chance of losing their money is certainly very big, however having real Bitcoin is better than Bitcoin ETF in terms of adoption, hemm it doesn't seem like Bitcoin ETF is the right one will boost Bitcoin's adoption but other events that may occur in the future.
People who understand Bitcoin completely will not want to try to buy a Bitcoin ETF, they will definitely choose real Bitcoin and store it in their personal wallet, remember, not your key, not your coin.

I'm still not sure if it has to do with the inflation but I believe more that it makes investing in BTC mostly to stock investors easier. Although I know that inflation can affect the price of the assets because it also affects people. No, investments don't always increase but there are also times where they go down. And in which money you are referring to, that continues to increase? If it's about the people's money, no.

If it's about their asset, no as well if they are struggling financially. But, even if let say they have more money and invest more, their assets can still go down sometimes, like I said earlier. There are lots of factors that can affect it not only inflation.

update
day three
11,440btc = ($500m)

I was also thinking since most investment companies creates subsidiary that are like commodity pools mimicking the spot price of bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF could like wise experience active trading of bitcoin exposures through speculation, funds generated through hedge, traders. It can also trigger trading volumes and increase volatility

I do believe that we are going to end up with more and more hypes around this topic, the more time goes the more times we hear that it got accepted and people are careful about it now, they do not want to be holding a bomb, so if it gets rejected or postponed there will be a lot of people who will sell, but at the same time there are even more people who are trying to get their situation going, and I think that's important, I think it is going to be fine in the end, and that should be the more important part of this deal, can't really change that.

I hope that we could end up with an approval though, because that seems to be the best way for bitcoin to progress, even though I personally do not care myself, I care about it because people care about it.

I think 200k in 2025 year point of ETF is to give control over btc to Blackrock.
and they have plan to send btc price up 100k one day when nobody not ready for this.

This year Im not waiting nothing only sideways 37k-57k
Next year we will see when they launch the btc bull run.

With such a bold thread heading as that, you might expect to open it and have some incredible insights presented to you. However you have offered nothing but pure speculation and have zero evidence to support your claims. You have really put together some incomprehensible drivel that is completely meaningless. Picking random numbers out of the air and then trying to give them justification does not make you clever, but then the only vague justification you can give is "the war". Pension funds are relatively smart and are likely to be very slow to incorporate any sort of crypto currency, because they need to offer lifetime security to their clients and not just jump on the latest bandwagon for no benefit.

its only been a day..
take for instance blackrock..
day one
227btc = 400,000 shares ($10m) allotted to their trust

day two
2620btc = 4,600,000 shares ($114m) allotted to their trust
..
alot of speculators and dreamers were fooled into thinking that "trillions of dollars" would be inflowed into ETF on day one..
alot of people then speculated the "trillions" would buy up all btc on day one

reality is not the case
it will be slower than people think.

lets see what next week, next month brings

I still think that ETF would not be as big of a deal as people think, and I do not think that financial world would crash that much, I mean it might have another inflation attack eventually, that always happens, and there are periods when it's terrible, like 2020 and even 2008 before that, but that doesn't mean that we are starving on the streets, some may, there are problems all over the world, but it is not as marginal as people make it out to be.

The biggest issue we have financially has always been the fact that there are people who are super wealthy, trying to get even richer, and poor people are not getting equally richer, having to cut down on life more and more, poor are poorer and rich are richer, and that's the issue.

The increase in the amount of money and the increase in the value of trade goods in all regions is a very normal thing because it is part of the cyclical balance in the living environment. But for other things such as investment, you also have to understand that not all investments can experience an increase in value except for rare assets that are well-known or assets that are not easily obtained by many people in their respective lives.

Meanwhile, the problem of inflation and the high cost of living is only felt by those who do not have more income, so when they buy any item it seems as if everything is expensive. Even though that is only measured by the abilities he has, and in my opinion that would be unfair unless someone who thinks like that wants to find a solution so that he is not so affected by the problem of inflation and the high cost of living as he has experienced himself through his life.

They send btc up when most of the people attentions not on btc but not this year as i said so it's looking like 2025 as i predicted and i said i felt like something wasn't right about that etf.
But AT the end of the 2024 Market start going lower in december.

Because If the real funds will flow in the btc will go 200k easy but off course too many traders and buyers waiting and are ready for this so they don't send it up now.

I been trading long long time i sense right way If something seems not quite right i see that sec might call back this etf on blackrock convictions.

That's true.
Then there's Grayscale that blocked their buy option yesterday because they had to sell GBTC shares on Coinbase first.
Not to mention Vanguard that decided to ignore the SEC and not allow users to get bitcoin exposure because their dead founder did not like bitcoin...
Then there's BlackRock that hasn't really used their funds yet. IMO they have a lot of buyers standing in line but are advising them to buy slow to keep the price lower for longer. If they went in with 500m right now bitcoin would probably go to a new and start a FOMO rally from retail, meaning bye bye cheap bitcoin and bye bye opportunity to make fast profit.

The mistake in this case that must be corrected from some people including those beginners because they always think that ETFs are everything and with an approved ETF, bitcoin will immediately fly into a very favorable situation for momentary profit.
Indeed, in this case it is not a mistake because in the end ETFs can be one of the bridges to increase bitcoin but this is not everything because in the end everything needs a process and not necessarily when the ETF is approved that bitcoin will immediately shoot up even to the new ATH because it is a perspective that is actually too short.
I like some situations that show an optimistic attitude in this regard but don't overdo it because ETFs are not everything and now we can see of course that the increase remains the same as usual because in the end we are talking about time not just for momentary gains by utilizing the moments that exist when in bitcoin.

The increase in Bitcoin prices did occur when several Bitcoin ETFs were approved and the increase began to be more visible when the Spot Bitcoin ETF started to open. But not long after that the price of bitcoin continued to fall. Even as I write this the price of bitcoin has fallen to 45,300usd. And yes, maybe some people think this is strange. But actually this is normal because a lot of people have been buying since before the Bitcoin Spot ETF was approved by Sec. maybe people have been accumulating btc since Blackrock is still preparing the application to create the spot Bitcoin ETF. So it is not surprising that now there will be many holders who will actually sell their bitcoin holdings after bitcoin touched 49,000 USD. And then panic selling followed and arrived at the current price. In fact, I see that the price decline this time could also be made to wipe out the Long positions that have accumulated in the Future Market. I don't know whether this is Whales' doing or not. But the market seems to have naturally reacted like now. Because Bitcoin will definitely rise but naturally and slowly.

First, I agree with what you said: most communities in the crypto or bitcoin space don't really understand the Bitcoin spot, etc. Most of them expect that once it is approved, there will suddenly be a rally in the price value of Bitcoin, but it is not like that right away.

Well, in fact, I read that ARK sold bitcoin worth 28 million dollars, if I'm not mistaken. Now the question is, why did they sell instead of holding bitcoin? That's because they can make their own way to sell their Bitcoin. Now why hasn't the price of Bitcoin dumped? That's because there are also people who buy Bitcoin; that's the logic.

Despite the ETF approval, whales are actually withdrawing their Bitcoins from exchanges in droves, if you look at the transactions based on @whale_alert on yesterday's ETF announcement date, it makes a lot of sense not to just hand over their Bitcoins to a new institution. I don't know if there is a correlation, but I believe Bitcoin withdrawals to unknown wallets have been prepared since learning of the SEC decision. Interestingly Bitcoin prices are currently trending stable above $45K - $46K, but we will see demand become more aggressive in the next few days/weeks. To be sure, as long as large and retail shareholders  remain firm in their stance prices can continue to rise and rise even before the halving occurs. This is just my personal  assumption about what happens after ETF approval. Anything can happen in a volatile market.

I agree and I also expect the same price range from $50k to $60k. Some people say it will reach like $120k and yeah I am a bit skeptical to that but to be fair it is possible as no one really knows when and what price and factors that may trigger that surge.

Yes, if you look at the increase in inflation and the high cost of living, it makes sense now.
but basically investments always experience an increase in value, because that is the basic principle because the amount of money continues to increase, the value of a commodity will always increase.

Whales dont control the price, influence and trade it perhaps and it can show short term before the next wave corrects but the real deal for BTC is going to be that ETF allows the common investor to be involved more easily.  That idea alone could greatly increase the amount of BTC held by the diversity of the audience its available to.   The really big price changes always come from the massive amounts of people doing that trade rather then the idea of 1 big guy with alot of money, they still dont compare to the crowd for movement and power.

Oh yeah, while everyone is certainly just looking at the BTC spot etfs that have been approved, many are forgetting about the futures contracts.

So once these contracts expires then we may see the skyrocketing that's prior to halving and there's also the after-effect of halving which we're all counting just not with the etf that were approved.

How about 2025 which is likely going to be the actual bull run phase? $200k-$250k they say?

Sure it has an influence.

https://www.coindesk.com/learn/2024/01/11/bitcoin-etfs-explained-what-are-they-how-do-they-work/

Investment managers are a band of like minded people. They have certain trust so the paper saying the own a share of the coins in the bag are their won't matter. Getting a share of the private keys it won't be.

Capital look increasingly into places where to store value, More money in lesser hands means that every year more people look to secure their hard earned cash. Bitcoin growing fits nicely into the portfolio of many wealthy people, companies, funds.  

It's too early to analyse the full meaning of ETF is exchange trust funds and some people may not know this but there are other ETF in different countries but USA being a big if not the biggest power house in Crypto-currency their ETF is highly regarded.
And I don't think you are right many investors has let this big companies hold their shares worth billions I don't think they would have any problems with holding Bitcoin.
It may not be instant but the approval of the ETF would affect the price of Bitcoin.

Will bitcoin reach 100k in January? Nope, I don't think so but we will see bitcoin reach 100k in mid 2024 as there are already like you said positive economic indicators.

You know so much about bitcoin and write so well about it that whenever I come across your comments, I secretly wish that I can know half of what you know and write as good as you do. I read your posts from time to time and constantly see how you are able to reply with clarity and precision. (Just a secret admirer here. I am sorry if this seem off-topic but I couldn't help it.)

when 2013 peaked at $1.2k. we did not see the price breach $1.2k until after 2016 halving
when 2017 peaked at $20k. we did not see the price breach $20k until after 2020 halving
when 2021 peaked at $70k .. if patterns remain we wont see price breach $70k until after 2024 halving

other patterns to note
when 2014 corrected from $1.2k peak it then didnt go below the 2011 ($30) peak
when 2018 corrected from $20k peak it then didnt go below the 2013 (1.2k) peak
when 2022 corrected from $70k peak it then did go below the 2017 (20k) peak so pattern did not repeat*

its worth noting that people can calculate a fair value/premium window of world wide mining costs(underlying wholesale market)
hardware using current gen asics hardware spread over 2 years. + electric(rated $0.04-$0.50 /kwh)
using current gen asics of terrahash / network hashrate to calculate number of asics on network average to calculate the value-premium window

2021 seen $10k-$75k window in which the market could speculate inbetween
2022 seen $15k-$95k window in which the market could speculate inbetween
2023 seen $20k-$110k window in which the market could speculate inbetween
2024 see's so far $25k-$140k window in which the market could speculate inbetween

so dont expect large (infueners promoted) $200k-$1m market price
if everyone can mine for under $140k no one on the planet will want to buy for more because most will be mining to sell,

*that said bitcoin economics are separating from underlying value-premium fundamental metrics of mining cost economics due to things like the fee bonus and also whale strategy. so expect the underlying rules of logical/fundamental economics to change

after all since ethereum moved to PoS(causing underlying minting cost to be 20x less per eth, their speculation market broke the logic rules when they then speculated and detached from fundamental logical economics and stayed high based on speculation)

It seems like you are predicting the future of life through it which I would generally never imagine even though everyone would probably see Bitcoin prices at $70k-$100k+. Because today Bitcoin also experienced a very decent price increase with a color correction that always follows, but for the near future I only have hopes for a price of $50K before expecting a price greater than that. Because this range is close enough to be expected so it can be quite logical for everyone even though in the future it is also quite possible to see a price of $70K.

Good for you.
I would be that cocky and believe that most people behave like me.

A whale is technically set at what amount? 200, 400, 800?

technically i am a whale. though i dont really day trade no more nor play these games (sure was fun in 2012-14 days riding the waves and the tides)
but once you know the tactics. you recognise when those tactics are played

Nobody knows whales...its not some Harry Potter story...the whales not actually the way you and most retail people think.
You got to be more deep in game to know

Yes the blue whales i know exacly what about you talking.
But i would say allmost 48k price is protected by them.

firstly, check the data itself
look at the market charts for more simpler answers..
when a market hits a WALL where it abruptly cannot pass. this wall is not natural trading
(do you really think that from (uktime) 8pm jan 8th to 8pm jan 9th having resistance at $47k flatline is natural)

heck we had in 2021-2022 whole weeks and months of unnatural flatline trading due to rubbing resistance walls of whales.
seems 2023-2024 seen most whats are just contracting in 1 day deals instead of one week-one month deals of previous years


next you can check the amount of futures contracts and market depths to see where the "resistance's" / "support's" are
and notice how simultaneously they just disappear at certain times to then allow free flow real market trading to move the price
once contracts conclude

as for knowing whale motivations.. its not a new game. its been going on even in traditional fiat markets. and once you recognise the patterns and see that there are unnatural flat line pricing they keep bumping but not exceeding and then suddenly a large drop to stop the rubbing against the line you start to notice that its the whale tactic at play

I have 2 questions 'cause it makes me wonder:
How many do you know? I mean that they trust you that much to tell you their very moves?

Those people who have been in the crypto scene knows why etf approval is significant hence why they would feel the need to buy more now for those people who are just going with the flow would probably see that bitcoin is increasing so they are just going to buy more regardless if they actually know why the etf approval makes investors to want to acquire more bitcoin

This may be the most logical analysis I have ever heard about the price. I have heard many analyzes indicating a price of 70k or more in January, but I believe that we will remain in an area between 50k and 60k at best. In general, we are still at the beginning of the year and there is a lot of water that will flow under the bridge, so the possibility of reaching 100k is still possible, especially with all the positive economic indicators.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs will increase demand on bitcoin and naturally with supply and demand principle, price will increase with time.

Because supply is the same, demand is bigger, more capital will flow in Bitcoin market, price must increase in long term. If you can understand its long term growth, you must have strong hands to hold your bitcoin. Consider that you hold it as a long term investment, forget about short term news, short term trading, holding will help you to increase your portfolio value.

Just invest with own money, don't sell everything you have to invest because you will not afford to lose everything with your investment.

whales are still locking the price below certain spot price levels to not hurt their futures contracts until they conclude

they dont want it exceeding 47k the last few days

make your topic useful by adding some charts or some time frames, since after 3 hours the price did not react to the news of the US ETF approved. The price may have calculated the amount since the beginning of the rumors, and the reason may be that they are waiting for the markets to open at lunch and start trading. Whatever the reason, it is Something new, and it is normal for people not to know how such news will affect it.

The price went up US$ 600, that is 13 to 14% and not skyhigh.
ETF is back of empty papers and no etf owner will hold a single BITCOIN.

If the etf approved then they send btc price high and then btc lowest price could be 70k-100k+ ever they use cboe price liq lockers ETF to be invested and 41k means pension funds will be invested but that's off course during the war.

They got exacly timing becouse by the year 2025 the repo will be depleted.

You could be wealthy If you manage to survive until 2030