I think not because if they hodling you won't see this correction/dip/crash(whatever you want to call it) many people are getting out of the boat because if not overall marketcap will stay the same even if they move from coin to coin to profit but instead marketcap is decreasing which tells me that people are actually cashing out.
You have to take into account that many long-term investors (= people, who HODL) don´t have
their coins on exchanges, but rather store them in hardware wallets, other cold wallet solutions
or even with a custodial service for institutional investors. Therefore their holdings aren´t really
influencing the day-to-day price development except by the fact that they aren´t really traded
and therefore artificially reduce the liquidity on the exchanges.
In general the amount of Bitcoins that is traded on the exchanges is a fraction of the total outstanding
BTC supply. Besides, the volume numbers on these exchanges are highly misleading for newbies,
because the same coins are being traded over and over again (bots, arbitrage, ...). In order to
illustrate that point you could take a look at a random Bitcoin exchange of your choice. E.g. Bitfinex had
a trading volume of 1,588,052.80 BTC at the BTC/USD trading pair in the last 30 days. However, the total
balance of the Bitfinex cold wallet hasn´t exceeded 145,000 BTC during that timeframe. This isn´t even
10 % of the traded amount. Additionally, some exchanges offer trading on margin, which distorts
the volume statistics even more.
I´d argue that you can´t really draw conclusions on the behavior of long-term investors / HODLers
by viewing the short-term price development.