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Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

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Quote from: eleuthria on September 15, 2013, 02:21:37 PM

Network hash rate estimates are based on block solve times, which are heavily influenced by luck (variance). For the last 20 hours, BTC Guild has been running at 140~170% luck, meaning the network hash rate estimates are being inflated by ~175 TH/s just from BTC Guild's luck.

You are correct of course, but it doesnt look like a statistical fluke

September 14 1045 PH
September 19 1137 PH

Next difficulty estimate:
Next 25/09/2013 08:21 260064 152 214 796 x1.35

Fasten your seatbelts, while I think it will start a bit later than most people expect, this party clearly hasnt even started yet

byteminr

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Quote from: lajz99 on September 17, 2013, 07:08:36 PM

But, your prices are absurd.

Wow, that's quite strong, care to elaborate?

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

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Sine secretum non libertas

Perhaps we could make this thread useful: How to estimate future difficulty? Hash rate growth has been exponential, a straight line on a log chart, since June. That can't last, since ASICs don't reproduce, but the number of fabs cranking out ASICs has increased continuously this year, and the rate of increase is increasing. I suspect it will top out with Gold Strike. Then the capacity coming online should grow linearly, with a possibly step-wise chunkiness until immature channels smooth out their flow. But how fast will it be growing?

I know that a January Cointerra IV order placed last week was #888, but I have no insight into the unit counts that will be delivered by BitFury, KNC or HashFast in the meantime. Does anyone have any useful data points or factoids on this front?

lajz99

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: byteminr on September 17, 2013, 10:04:32 AM

Quote from: mootinator on September 15, 2013, 03:41:19 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: pedrog on September 14, 2013, 06:38:20 PM

Congratulations to Bitcoin Network!

your kidding right? there are only going to be 3 or 4 big players left in the mining field by january

This is the biggest fallacy ever. If enough individuals buy a few GH/s each we'll get rid of big players entirely. They stand the most to lose. They're the most exposed to the risk. Who's going to take equipment down first? The guy losing $1000/month on power or the guy losing $1.80/month on power?

I agree with you, which is why we setup www.byteminr.com. Mining can easily stay distributed while companies like ours find a way to exist and resist the large corporate mining farms that are being setup.

Keep the network distributed and mine a few coins on platforms like ours - a true virtual rig service where we share the risk/reward equation with our customers as fairly as we can.

But, your prices are absurd.

byteminr

sr. member

Activity: 574

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Quote from: mootinator on September 15, 2013, 03:41:19 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: pedrog on September 14, 2013, 06:38:20 PM

Congratulations to Bitcoin Network!

your kidding right? there are only going to be 3 or 4 big players left in the mining field by january

This is the biggest fallacy ever. If enough individuals buy a few GH/s each we'll get rid of big players entirely. They stand the most to lose. They're the most exposed to the risk. Who's going to take equipment down first? The guy losing $1000/month on power or the guy losing $1.80/month on power?

I agree with you, which is why we setup www.byteminr.com. Mining can easily stay distributed while companies like ours find a way to exist and resist the large corporate mining farms that are being setup.

Keep the network distributed and mine a few coins on platforms like ours - a true virtual rig service where we share the risk/reward equation with our customers as fairly as we can.

mootinator

sr. member

Activity: 274

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: pedrog on September 14, 2013, 06:38:20 PM

Congratulations to Bitcoin Network!

your kidding right? there are only going to be 3 or 4 big players left in the mining field by january

This is the biggest fallacy ever. If enough individuals buy a few GH/s each we'll get rid of big players entirely. They stand the most to lose. They're the most exposed to the risk. Who's going to take equipment down first? The guy losing $1000/month on power or the guy losing $1.80/month on power?

eleuthria

legendary

Activity: 1750

Merit: 1007

Quote from: ?? on ??

Anyone know where this power is coming from? BTC Guild and Eligius are pretty much unchanged from yesterday.

Network hash rate estimates are based on block solve times, which are heavily influenced by luck (variance). For the last 20 hours, BTC Guild has been running at 140~170% luck, meaning the network hash rate estimates are being inflated by ~175 TH/s just from BTC Guild's luck.

smoothie

legendary

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