Topic: Peter Zeihan - in a world of carbon taxes, cryptos net worths is negative (Read 349 times)

Satsohi mined 1.8 milllion coins from 1 rig , are you so clueless that you really only believe he was running only 1 rig.
Odds are he was running a minimum of 4 rigs and possibly 8 rigs.(Anyone sharing a blockchain is running a minimum of 4 nodes especially in the old days.)
So his real bitcoin total is most likely over 7.2 million bitcoins.

Yes showing how stupid you are is derailing the topic.

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So to get back on topic,

Peter Zeihan has stated Bitcoin is a Dumpster Fire.
https://coinpedia.org/opinion/geopolitical-strategist-and-author-peter-zeihanpeter-zeihan-thinks-bitcoin-is-dumpster-fire/




FYI: Carbon Taxes will mainly screw over Proof of Waste coins such as btc and ltc.

You know that there were others mining in 2009, right? Don't believe everything you read on the internet. Pseudo-evidence isn't science.

Ugh. Derailed another thread with this idiot. Apologies, I'll stop.

Says another cult member, did you car pool with black kat and wind-stink.

https://www.banklesstimes.com/how-many-bitcoins-does-satoshi-nakamoto-have/

 
Yeah right you spend all of these years and all of those other alts, and you don't get paid by blockstream or join in their little btctalk club member meetings.


If you read the top reply , you're feeling pretty duh, right now.
Close your eyes and pretend Satoshi had no bitcoins, and was the savior you dreamed he was.  




Any Jackass can setup PoW merge mining , even you.
https://academy.binance.com/en/glossary/merged-mining

Doge currently merges mined on LTC, and plans to dump the crap Proof of Waste mining before the global Bans ,
Doge will be evolving to Proof of Stake for the higher security , faster performance, and energy efficiency , oh and to avoid the coming PoW bans.
 

I earn 0 from Proof-of-Work supporting companies like Blockstream.

There are none.

Now you're just throwing random terms just to seem knowledgeable. Any developer can create Proof-of-Work based cryptocurrencies, but he needs to either acquire computational power or convince others spend it for his network's security, none of which is attractive in comparison with just minting coins without the work.

He's worse than CSW fangirls...

I would not know, since I am right and you are just a paid PoW shilling nutjob.

Go find the evidence that Satoshi owns millions of coins yourself, as you claim to be so smart.  

Any jackass can create a proof of waste coins using btc or ltc model and immediately merge mined with them.
The fact no one bothers anymore shows everyone knows PoW is dying.  

Want to explain why btc PoW model is so pathetic it is limited to 7 onchain transactions per second.  
Include Blockstream in your answer, 

Peter Zeihan is a very intelligent and original philosopher and futurist, but I disagree with many of his conclusions. 

Yes, China has a very large population.  So far, however, China has been very successful in meeting all strategic challenges.  The history of China is 5,000 years old.  China is incredibly antifragile (to use the terminology of the philosopher and writer Nassim Taleb). 

The situation is similar with Germany.  Germany is a great country in which people are very smart, disciplined and focused on the development of scientific and technological progress.  Such a country will never abandon the industrial path of development and switch to growing vegetables. 

As for Bitcoin, its significance for Humanity is enormous.  In the context of the collapse of globalization, only Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can provide economic interaction between citizens of different countries.

Shut your mouth for once, and show me the evidence that Satoshi owns a million coins.

Ever thought that Proof-of-Stake is attractive to developers, because they're the first to acquire most of the coins? Ever thought that it requires no investment either? Securing a brand new protocol with Proof-of-Work requires purchase of expensive infrastructure and energy spending.

Ever thought that Proof-of-Work has absolutely nothing to do with the transaction capacity?

Congrats, though. Being so wrong about something must take effort.

Legendary Knob

You ignore any evidence put in front of you , if it is not btc cult propaganda , so why waste my time, you're still be delusional.  

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You and your Black Kat, both start your btc proof of waste shilling shift at the same time.
Every developer with any intellect is switching to Proof of Stake, the only charlatans I see are you Proof of Waste promoters.
Notice there are no new PoW coins for years, it is because proof of waste is a dying tech, and everyone with a brain knows it.

Next is where you lie, and say BTC PoW is the best and the crap can barely get 7 transactions per second, Lame Tech.  

That's not so many. Hashng power is also at a level higher than the previous cycle.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#alltime

Plus calling Proof of Stake "better" than Proof of Work merely because it's "wasteful" shows that the person doesn't understand that Proof of Stake is a system for consensus by comittee. Proof of Stake will always be inferior than Proof of Work. It's simply the truth, ask any capable developer who is not a charlatan.

Great analogy. It's just that plants don't let you send cash across the globe in a censorship resistant, private fashion, for a nickle. Maybe you could come up with something that isn't numerously debunked every once a few years? You know. Just to not look benighted.

Evidence isn't your strong point, is it?

If he is a fiat enthusiast, then he must be a bitcoin hater probably. Because the only thing that a single individual will not believe on bitcoin because he has not experienced any good thing about it, that’s why he will take opposite side of bitcoin. But we know the truth, we know how valuable bitcoin is, we know it has a great utility, so we should not fall on Peter Zeihan even if he has been doing great in most of his podcast.

What if , Blockstream forgot to pay you for shilling btc and proof of waste.  

Nah, BTC can die tomorrow , and most won't care at all.
Only the fools that believe btc would make them rich if they only hodl. (Good Luck with that nonsense.)
Tulips fools did not see their collapse coming either.
 
Because all it freedom ideals died the day ASICS warehouse make sure the common man would never mine another block.
What you claim to care about in btc has already been dead for years, you're just can't see it thru your cult think.
Decentralization also died when the ASICS came online.
Only 3 mining pool operators hold BTC 51% fate on a daily basis.
Satoshi still has millions of BTC stashed away that no one knows of.
BTC onchain transaction capacity is shit, and no will to fix it.
Worldwide Proof of Waste bans are coming and BTC community too clueless to prepare for it.

Renewable energy isn’t problem here. If they wanted to have this infrastructure in place all over the world then they would have done it already. They would have done it for the fiat money production or may be for coffee machine too! What makes you think that they will do it for the purpose of fiat production? Things are mixing up here. It doesn’t mean anything but more than a dream that someday crypto will run on green energy and all the governments will accept the bitcoin as mode of payment. 

What if you go outside, take a few breaths, eat a meal, take a walk to your town, visit the parliament, maybe stay there for a while and witness that it isn't consisted only of communists who'd cut the heads of those who'd have dared to spend energy in disapproved activities, and get back home?

It's impossible for some people to not care if Bitcoin ever "dies" (you know, actually), because Bitcoin disappearing requires from the entire world to operate in the most oppressive manner, and I'm sure lots will care about that. Even you might.

Because PoS is making money out of thin air. It doesn't require any money to be poured into it. It produces money with no value, inflationary money, diluting the supply in the process, just like ETH is doing.

I guess all those US mining companies that went bankrupt weren't really that big because bitcoin's hash rate is still 25% higher than it was in the peak of 2021.

Fear mongers want us to panic because the price went down 75%, one scam exchange went bankrupt and some miners in the US had to shut down due to Winter power shortages, but in the meantime the number of wallets containing 1 bitcoin is at all time high and hash rate is higher than it was at the all time high and 2 times what it was in the middle of 2021.

 

Bitcoin Proof of Waste miners going bankrupt just in the US alone.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-file-chapter-11-bankruptcy-cnbc-2022-12-21/


https://www.forbes.com/sites/colinharper/2022/09/30/bitcoin-minings-first-major-bankruptcy-creates-uncertainty-for-key-partners-opportunity-for-others/?sh=34de5dbb657d



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/bitcoin-miner-greenidge-gree-btc-warns-of-bankruptcy-restructures-debt


No one using Proof of Stake has had to declared bankruptcy because of lack of VC money to cover their ridiculous waste of energy.  

What if , you really need to think about?
What if the entire world places a carbon tax on btc?
What if the world governments just outright ban proof of waste?
What if, all of the btc cult members are wrong and btc only falls in price from now on?
What if, you were just an idiot that believe a outdated slow failing tech product was a deity?
When Ethereum become #1 on CMK, What if no one cared that btc died.  

What carbon taxes are they going to impose on nuclear power? It doesn't produce any carbon and there are hundreds of nuclear power plants operating worldwide. In fact, China is trying to make more as we speak.

Also, he's talking about "crypto". Bitcoin is not crypto, I hate when people are putting all coins in one basket even though they're often like apples and oranges.

I think that he's completely wrong about cryptocurrencies. Their benefits greatly outnumber the cost of using them, so even with some countries going all renewable there are going to be countries that say fuck that, we're building more nuclear plants or fuck that' we're going to keep using coal as long as we have it. Once we run out, then we'll go green.

I don't see India or China going green. Russia also doesn't care. The biggest countries talking about renewables are actually those that don't produce a lot of CO2. Those that produce the most don't care. As a result you'll have countries like Germany taxing people to build more wind mills and they'll reduce total emissions in the EU from 9% of the global emissions to 8% or something while China alone produces about 30%.

I believe the "so many miners" that are going bankrupt, you are saying they're all Bitcoin miners, not shitcoin miners? Can you show us a list of who those "so many miners" that went bankrupt?


But what if Bitcoin keeps chugging along, producing block after block for decades? What if it lives longer than you? How old are you? 50? Average human life span is 70 to 75 years. What if Bitcoin keeps on running 10x longer than your remaining 20 - 25 years in the world?


Haha. That would truly indicate that it's going to be a Shitcoin World.

exactly
the money print of 2020 was not a large push out to the citizens to trickle up. the amount that went to citizens in the covid cheques was small in comparison to the money print hidden away in darkpools of institutions. however in 2022 this started to "trickle down" meaning too much money in citizens hands and so businesses raise their prices to "trickle up" that money again. and thats the inflation part
and now that people have less money but prices are high we are now in recession era

Inflation is skyrocketing because the governments have been printing lots of money in the past few years.
All of this money is still present in the market and the whales are just moving it from one domain to other.
The money gets revolved from one kind of investment to others. Right now everyone is scared because of the on going inflation/recession and market crashes.
So the dust needs to settle down before people start pouring their money into crypto again.
I guess it will take another 2 years for that to happen.

oh leg-end. .. im noticing how much you misunderstand about many things,
not just crypto value and utility. but also geo-politics.

ill start with geo-politics
china's issues is not about what you heard on fox news and then re-sung by some youtube video guy.

they have power. they actually are very efficient in their power production and end consumer utility..
its actually americans that waste more energy per person than china
heck even looking at the gas-guzzling cars in america compared to the UK. america waste alot of fuel

as for the mistreatment of the uyghurs, where the guy in the video mentions how china is being left out of international trade deals due to about 1m uyghurs detained and retrained..
of a chinese population of 1.4b vs 1m detainees 0.07%
america has 330m and 1m mexicans detained and retrained.. 0.3%

america have a bigger problem of people in jail/prison/detained immigrants/minorities

but lets return to the crypto stuff involving china
what china found is many people were residential mining(hobby mining) over running the neighbourhoods circuit breakers and causing localised brownouts due to stealing electric and tripping the neighbourhoods circuit breakers

also there were lots of unregistered and unregulated businesses. it became too much to handle/police.. so they had to shut it down. even the ones operating legitimately

the idea years ago was to prohibit bitcoin and then licence it through regulations. but they didnt see a easy path to police the malicious hobby miners

its the same as cannabis growers. people growing in their basements was a "war on drugs" that lasted decades

.. as for the other conspiracy that china is a dead country with dying population dying economy
thats just more BS you would expect to hear from fox news

if you actually bother to travel to countries you want to discuss you will see a different picture
you will see the "belt and road" which is forming new trade passages, things the EU would never dare invest in due to EU not affording such projects of such magnitude

but to try to say china is dead, based on stupid misunderstandings of GDP. is the same stupid misunderstanding of people trying to value crypto based on the nonsense number of "market cap"
GDP has become a nonsense number of meaningless relevance

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not all miners mine for the same costs.
the value line is not "all miners" nor "average" its the BOTTOM cost. the most efficient miners.

the rest of them have higher costs.
EG hobby miners in hawaii have a $90k/btc cost to mine. so do you know what they do..
.. they dont mine right now and instead buy bitcoin direct.
why?.. well obviously its a 6x cheaper offer to just buy bitcoin than mine it.

if some idiot miners decided to continue mining at a loss.. that is on them.

also the recent news of a mining business going bankrupt was because they were doing scammy "cloud mining" but no one wanted to pay for the "contracts" due to the ask price being stupidly higher than market rate. they deserved to die


its this reason why for the last year the average hashrate has stayed around the 230 average hashrate(temp peaking to 310 and temp dipping to 160)

what you find is the most efficient mining is on the increase, and the less efficent mining is on the decrease
but its why there is no mass of hobby miners bringing the hashrate up to 350exa hash at a sustainable level which would have been the case if the price was higher because the hobby miners play to the whims of the market and jump off mining to become bitcoin market buyers.

but the efficient miners have been sustaining a level..
which if you look at the BOTTOMS of 2020-2022 prices
you will see we are at a higher bottom than 2020
and youll see a higher bottom of mining too in 2022 compared to 2020

which shows that increase of hashrate has caused an increase to the bottom

the rest of the speculative market ontop is just that speculations of different peoples viewpoints of their own individual decisions on when they want to buy.


your biggest mistake seems to be to the the 2021 ATH was a "sustained value" point where the price correction after was not a return to value(in your eyes) but a destruction of value.
you are wrong the value line of 2020 was about $3k and value in 2022 is ~$15k

again the speculative market above value is then the volatile premium of speculating based on random sentiment

I agree. It does look like Zeihan and many others think because Bitcoin uses the same energy as Switzerland roughly, it can only ever function using this amount of energy. They dont understand the difficulty adjustment and game theory elements.

If fossil fuels weren't depleting at 5% - 7% per year, and weren't causing catastrophic climate change, nobody would consider using anything else. Unfortunately, they are and a transition is something renewable is a good thing. The problem is there is a one big lie: there is no renewable technology that doesn't involve everyones standard of living dropping. Either way, we're fucked. But more fucked in the former case.

Looking at China , growing inability to keep the power on and growing inability to feed themselves , collapse is not out of the question,
part of the reason they started the PoW ban.

PoW uses an insane amount of energy , carbon taxes would drive up input costs for miners to increase bankruptcies that are already skyrocketing without carbon taxes.
Now if Franky1 is correct, then BTC price will increase to offset the increase in miners cost, but if that were true, then why are so many miners going bankrupt now.
IMO, it is because the VC money that kept the PoW miners afloat has dried up for the majority, and the VC money is what was propping up the price and that is going away.
Bitcoin Mining Council puts out alot of propaganda bullshit,
BTC miners are using power grids that have some renewables as a % of their total which include coal, nuclear, & natural gas as the bulk %.
The Polar Vortex in the US, just caused 30% of the bitcoin hashrate to go offline for 3 days to avoid grid failure, this caused a decrease in the speed of finding new blocks, the only thing saving BTC, is hardly anyone is using it's blockchain anymore.
The Lack of VC money will hurt all crypto, killing most and only the very strong top 20 Non-PoW coin networks will survive and any tokens running on those networks, the rest are just fubar.

bitcoin has features and utility. and so people want bitcoin.
how they get it depends on their costs.
some miners can mine coin below the market rate. some not so much so they just buy it.

bitcoin is not tangible(physical in hand) as a currency but its method of creation is tangible. (dropping an asic on your head will hurt you)
spotify is not tangible(digital audio) but a server farm creating the audio is real. if a server rack falls on you, you'll feel it, as you would if you tried to walk up to an song artist and tell them they are fake. (enjoy the slap/punch)

bitcoin has intrinsic value. there is underlying cost in its creation and then as people acquire and pass on coins new buyers acquire at the sell rate too

there are 2 different markets and people dont realise that the public spot market of speculation is the premium(retail) market not the value(wholesale) market

Most electric utilities will pass the cost of their carbon tax on to the consumer.  Therefore, a Bitcoin Miner would be operating at a loss, if they are consuming utility power.  So why mine Bitcoins?  For what purpose?  Bitcoins inherently have absolutely no tangible value (only perceived value).  The only thing that makes sense would be for a Bitcoin miner to consumer 100% renewable power from wind/solar/hydro.  Even then, renewable sources of power are not constant, so that would require the miner to install storage batteries that could provide power when there is no wind or sun.  Again, that requires more $$$ investments.  Given all of these costs to eliminate the bitcoin miners carbon footprint, why do bitcoin mining at all?  It appears to be a very unprofitable business, and environmentally hazardous if the miner is not consuming renewable power.  The truth demonstrates that the process is very inefficient.  SO why not utilize different blockchain technology, that is more efficient than Bitcoin?  In this year of 2023, there are many more crypto-tokens available that are more environmentally friendly, and can perform the same function as a Bitcoin.  Why mine bitcoins at all?  I'm very curious to know the benefits?

He sounds like a FUDster. China collapse by 2030? That would entail that every other country that relies on Chinese production would collapse too. A war would ensue before that could happen.


"Money is going away"? Did he mean to say Quantitative tightening? The Federal Reserve will pivot as early as March, 2023 if inflation would drop quick enough. The printer will be back, and the money will flow ser.


It's not "on the whim of the commercial banks", it's the FED.


I believe that in a few more years, many countries will discover that, LIKE GERMANY, pursuing the dream of having their energy sources from mostly renewable sources is a MISTAKE. They are simply too unreliable.

For all products in an economy, the cost to produce is a parameter of market value, because it determines the supply. If the cost drops, the supply increases. If the cost rises, the supply decreases. But difficulty doesn't allow that to happen. If you find the cheapest electricity on the planet, and it takes you $1,000 to mine a bitcoin, then you're just stealing other miners' income; you don't arbitrarily increase the money supply. The demand for bitcoins remain the same, the supply for bitcoins remain the same. You're just making the money other miners would.

If normal is 1990 to 2020, I dont see us ever going back. I agree with Macron, we are likely at the end of the age of abundance due to climate change, international conflict and continued supply chain issues. Im trying to figure out can Bitcoin survive in the new era of scarcity of everything due to aforementioned issues - which has already begun IMO. It must become a true inflation hedge if it is to.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/Macron-France-is-at-the-end-of-its-age-of-abundance

Doesn't make sense! Money isn't going away! We are going through a mild crypto winter and the situation will be normal again and we will see an influx of capital sooner than expected. It's just that FTX collapse and ongoing legal investigations against Binance are putting the market at risk and that's why a lot of investors are pulling away their capital. They will be back shortly.


The problem with renewable energy is that they require a large amount of investment, to begin with. Once it is set up and running, the operating cost is much lesser than any conventional source of energy. Such kind of large investment is usually out of the reach of a startup or a small company. We may see a completely different picture if the market comes back to its former glory so that mining companies are able to collect the fund. Right now it's somewhat dicey.

The "dirty" electricity produced by burning coal is already "carbon taxed". There's a market for carbon emissions and the coal burning power plants have to buy carbon emission permits, in order to sell their electricity.
The BTC/crypto miners, who are buying such "dirty" electricity had already paid the carbon tax, because the carbon tax is included in the price of the "dirty" electricity. This Peter Zeihan guy is talking BS. Crypto mining should not be taxed twice, because this would be unfair.
I agree that the "easy money" era is temporarily gone, and this is what causes the crypto winter, but the fiat financial system cannot survive without money printing.

I really disagree. Many people are suffering from this economic downturn but it doesn't mean that there is no money. I believe that there are more governments nowadays that are printing more money than ever. Big companies are still big and even some of them are taking advantage of this current situation. It is all about opportunities and these giant corporations are capable of doing so because they have the needed capital and influence. Let's just say that what happened to LUNA and FTX are the main reasons the market is still down. Not saying that bitcoin should pump and regain its previous highest price but without that bad news, bitcoin should've been at the $20k level something.

When this world economic crisis ends, ordinary people will once again have excess money to invest in bitcoin. Bitcoin network depending on energy is not a big deal since there are always places on earth that are conducive for it. Fiat's value will continue to decline while bitcoin will continue to increase due to its limited supply and decentralized manner.

When economy collapses, things eventually go back to normal. Have you forgotten what happened in 2008? Look it up. There was chaos as economy was collapsing (bitcoin was created during that time too) and things went back to normal and most people forgot that their centralized monetary system is seriously flawed and corrupted. Those who didn't forget started adopting bitcoin.

This actually very true guys, gov is printing money like crazy. The news is all over the place is might the cause of global recession too. We can take one example US that print around 3 Trillion dollar in 2020 alone https://www.depledgeswm.com/depledge/the-us-printed-more-than-3-trillion-in-2020-alone-heres-why-it-matters-today/

that been using for stimulus and anything.

you have things backwards

that guy in the video saying bitcoin has no cost no value and due to taxes is a negative.. has it completely wrong
if a miners electric increases due to wars, crisis or taxes. there is more cost. meaning the value rises

bitcoins value is derived from the entire planets lowest cost to acquire bitcoin
and if next year the cost is higher due to wars, crisis or taxes the value rises (it doesnt go negative)

bitcoins value is not derived from the ATH market price(many fools think it is)

there is a 3 layer to the methods of acquiring:
Premium rate- public speculation markets  \_
                                                               _> less efficient miners jump in and out of these groups
preferential rate- OTC platforms                /

value rate                                              - most efficient mining farms stay in this group

its like the retail market
retailer
wholesaler
farmer

bitcoin mining at the most efficient cost is the bottom. if you find the cheapest mining cost of bitcoin ON THE PLANET you find the bottom. yep if no one can acquire bitcoin for less. thats the bottom.
no one wants to sell for less. thus it becomes the ultimate support price for a bottom where people then sell for that amount or more. where there is then a premium for the supply/demand stuff ABOVE the bottom

this bottom can change if there was a PROLONGED hashrate competition drop. but the most efficient miners creating the bottom support do not play to daily whims,so it has to be a prolongs drop

they are not on daily-monthly electric bills. they purchase electric blocks of GW in 6-24 month chunks
their hardware is not running intermittently. it runs on a ~2year life cycle constantly, before selling hardware as second hand to altcoiners/hobbiests, and investing in next gen more efficient hardware

they cost out their costs over those periods and compare it to the coin they get over those periods.
which then calculate to a coin /cost bottom(based on a 6-24month) average

bitcoin value does not change in a volatile manner compared to the market premium, as the costs are semi-fixed for prolonged periods

things like electric rises and tax on electric actually add costs to the bottom. meaning the value rises.

bitcoin does not have negative value due to taxes at the electric(carbon) level. it has positive value or more precisely more premium due to those taxes raising the cost of electric

Bitcoin's value is not driven by mining, mining is driven by Bitcoin value. If electricity prices rise, if there are anti-mining regulations, it would just result in migration of mining and maybe lower network hashrate. But unless this drop is very dramatic, it's not going to affect security, and if security is unaffected, the price is unaffected.


Bitcoin still fails to exhibit anti-inflation or anti-crisis properties. It seems to be just as affected as the stock market and other mainstream investments. But on the other hand, the fact that Bitcoin is still alive and well means that the market indeed believes that Bitcoin has some pretty solid fundamentals.

And the Bitcoin network is decentralized. Wherever might not have wind power, might have geothermal power, and wherever might not have solar energy, might have cheap electricity. The fact that renewables are intermittent would only matter if there was a single entity responsible for mining; there isn't. There are thousands of miners, all over across the world. Also, not all nations have carbon taxes, and those who do, don't have the same tax.

Why do these people never have a proper interlocutor?

I agree mostly. In fact I believe there is no replacement for oil that doesnt involve lowering the worlds standard of living. Where I disagree is the plenty of reserves less. The EROI(Energy Returned on Energy Invested) of oil was 1/100, now its 1/15. That is about 100 years ago, for every 1 barrel invested we got 100 out of the ground, now its 15 (as its deeper and harder to get out, and its shale oil).

He's very very smart but I basically agree. His certainty over every prediction is a red flag.

We are not going to see oil reserves depleted.  There is still plenty of oil. This is not what carbon taxes/credit is about

Carbon taxes exists because when we burn oil, some carbon goes to the atmosphere and this is, supposedly,  bad. And what those esg people are trying to impose is a new energy matrix based on green sources without fossil fuel.

What I am saying is that it is not possible for now, and Europe will just freeze to death without gas, people will have blackouts all over the world without thermal power stations, etc.

Just look at this chart.

https://ourworldindata.org/

And yes, there are plenty fossil fuels reserves

This is not bitcoins fault. Bitcoin miners will automatically use the cheaper energy available.

Simply stated, he believes that Bitcoin has no value because he is personally unable to see any utility, and everything else he said follows logically from that.

His statements prove his narrow-mindedness, his lack of imagination, his lack of vision, his ignorance, and most importantly his arrogance more than anything else.

I dont see things going back to normal. Debt is growing at 4 times GDP and has been for a few decades. Bitcoin can grow, but not because things go back to normal, rather due to a collapse/recalibration which looks inevitable IMO.

How long do you define long run? Fossil fuels are being taken out of the ground 10 million times faster than they were put in - and their usage increases every year. The long run isnt as long as  many seem to imagine IMO.

I mean there will be general carbon taxes across the US, Europe, parts of Asia and Australia (anywhere with strong social contracts). These will target anything using fossil fuels, not just bitcoin. But the bitcoin network as a whole can deal with the limits of renewables (transporting and storage) unlike manufacturing for example.

Carbon taxes is just a buzz word. Just like ESG.

But nobody can deny the reality for the long run, and fossel fuels aren't going to disappear.
 
Anyway  bitcoin can be mined with green energy sources ,  when their price becomes sustainable  and competitive

Renewables needing to be stored and geographically diversified is something well known by most governments trying to invest in it. They're going to have to build the infrastructure for that anyway - most already know how to though from when it has been done with oil and coal (such as peak energy usage).

An international carbon tax targetting crypto sounds a lot like scapegoating though. Many other things release a lot more emissions for fewer people (such as private jets and the whole airline industry - the majority of commercial flights are filled more with frequent fliers for things like business than they are holidaygoers and that should be mostly considered unnecessary by now since the pandemic).

Such a tax would also have to provide exemptions for things like electric cars too and a lot of big battery production.

But money is not going away, they are actually printing more of it and right now the "capital" is too scared to jump into bitcoin. Not to mention that certain events like FTX collapse have caused a small crash preventing the rise.
When the inflation+recession growth stops, things could go back to normal and bitcoin would go up again.

Keep in mind that governments have been printing money like maniacs that has and will crash fiat's value which would only contribute to bitcoin price rise.

Since such things like "Carbon Tax" are not global, they won't affect bitcoin. They are also not applied in any place with high bitcoin hashrate to matter and even if they did, the hashrate would simply migrate to a region with vast amounts of ultra cheap energy .

Im a fan of Peter Zeihan and in general agree with many of his arguments, such as China collapsing by 2030 due to demographics and Germany falling down the economic ladder fast due to its reliance on ever-more expensive fossil fuels. So that's why Im torn on his views on crypto - hes usually right.

He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"

My take on this is that yes, while there will be less capital going forward, fiat is still created at the whim of commercials banks, therefore the idea of a digital cash that cant be debased is a powerful one. On future carbon taxes, which I agree with, the bitcoin network can easily operate on a fully renewable grid - the problem with renewables is they are intermittent and the energy requires storage. Neither of these limitations apply to the Bitcoin network.

at 53min 20 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHUoMmKDLUI