Topic: Pirate Manipulation behind the recent price spike? (Read 7073 times)

by intersango users

by intersango or pirate ?

hey guys, I just had a thought:

could pirate be behind the current price spike?

It is more likely pump and run.

someone is buying at 8.00GBP  or 12.60 USD on intersango

 

is it a pump and dump though ?

Hmm, maybe he tanked it, but it was opposite day? I'm pretty sure I see 11+ right now??
-Confused.

He claimed to have tanked the price, though.. And warned to buy in too expensive and all.

Ente

As long as the pirate can keep ratcheting up the price, I'm all for it! On the other hand, I wouldn't give him a Satoshi.

Even if it was Pirate back then at 17.07., it seems like it did cost him a fair amount of BTC, and his intervention held jts a mere two weeks.. He dropped it from 9.5 down to 7.5, and it went up to 9.5 again after 15 days, up to 11.1 after 17 days..

I dunno.. Nah, Pirate probably is quick, clever and opportunistic. But probably not causing 25% swings after all.

Ente

which one do you prefere?
because it seems I have had bad luck with the smaller ones as you can see here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1073755
(has my money and my BTC's)
therefore I am looking for any trustable...
TIA

So, basically, the theory is that pirate is a large dark pool.  He knows the real price, and can manipulate the exchanges using this info.  And this all came about because MtGox is a dick about identification, and Bitcoinica started going down the regulatory path as well.  I guess it's feasible.  Though, I wonder how (and how long) it works in practice.

You assume that selling the coin is the only service pirate provides.

thx
I have looked at the side and it's difficult to understand all for me (perhaps because I'm no native english speaker) and I ask me what do I have much more then on http://btccharts.com/ or http://bitcoincharts.com/ where I see most of the exchanges too?
(especially if I pay for the service...)
TIA

Its easy to buy anything anonymously at market price  ,just have an agent make the buys on your behalf

I doubt theres  some billionaire/organisation   paying pirate  way over the odds to buy into bitcoin

he claims to be making around 10%+ per week so its easy for him to pay  up to 7% and still make  a killing ......

Very interesting .......

Where people who buy it don't want to be in public.

Nobody will sell at below market value regardless of their  wealth status ,and where do you go to sell something at a higher price than what the market is willing to pay for it ?

Check out http://bitcoin-analytics.com/

Hi
I have tried a few times day trading, but with the fees @MtGox in the end I have had (if I won) the same (or lower) as before the trades -> meaning that the really profit has made MtGox
therefore:
is there any chart with comparing the fees from all of the exchanges anywhere?
TIA

Somehow we have to admit that "pirate40" was right. panic buyer at 9.5$ could have buy at lower price. I think small crashes in rally and patience can make very good friends for investors: buy the dips.

I usually place a bidding order 5% -10% lower than it is trading now, and seldom it cannot be full filled given 1 week time.

Pirate says he will go to Defcon, so perhaps he'll pull up his ultrabook in the middle of the street, release the yubikey from inside his eye patch and make a rally right there and then on the street for everyone to see!!*


Seeing is believing!!!!

Because it was a BTC Ponzi? I mean, could be he's selling now so he can cash out and he really has no obligation to buy them back if it's a Ponzi and he's done with it now.

I watched it happen in real-time yesterday, and was going to post about it when the forum went off-line

I'm kind of lost in the shuffle with all this. All I knew until a few hours ago was that yesterday (and the day before) I opened up my phone app to monitor prices and it was shooting up. Then it went back down, and now it seems to be stabilizing.

I come on here to find all of this. Not sure what to think.
Now I've been out of this for almost a year, I don't quite understand who Pirate is. I have seen him post lately and he clearly has some power/wealth in bitcoin judging by his business and the software available from him.

However, why hasn't he said anything since and where/what is he doing now? Did he accomplish what he set out to complete? What even was the goal - to start a rally?

If true he was behind this, then why would the people invested in his service(s) trust him? If he is indeed running a ponzi, then why does he have so much accumulated BTC from people in the first place?

you wana see a pirate get burnt

refuse to sell bellow 8.77

that is all

 

This is possible. It's difficult to tell exactly what preceded what from comparing the charts to the IRC log. (assuming the log times are correct, anyway). Where could one find reliable data on the market events, including orderbook movements?

trying to push the price down , he is the liquidity on the ask side right now
once he gets it to < 7, and removes his asks walls their will not be enough bitcoin on the ask side to satisfy his needs
and everyone is going to jump allover them


don't you just love it when shit hits the fan?  

If pirate is running ponzi, why would anyone believe a single word he is saying? In that case, by definition, whatever he say must be considered as a potential lie.

Now, if he is not running ponzi, why the hell he needs to say anything at all?

Now get around that simple logic.

When you pump you get BTC.  When you dump at higher prices, you get USD.  And repeat.

In your example, yes, he's messed up when the price pushes to 8 after he sold at 6.9.

So, instead he pumps the price to $9.50 (or $9.69) and sells to...oh, I don't know, $7.50?

wait wouldn't he need to get the bitcoins b4 he dose a pump and drop?

so I'd say right now hes trying to push the price down in order to buy low and then do his pump and drop

if this is the case he is soo fucked ....

here is the scenario that totally would screw over both him and his lenders.

first he sells all his bitcoins at 6.9
someone pushes the price up to 8

ok hes all messed up now.... that wasn't so hard

The price going higher is only an issue if it goes up too fast and stays there after Pirate has already converted all of his BTC to USD.

His only hope at that point would be to try to create another rally with USD and do a pump and dump.

With the amount of capital that Pirate has, it would be difficult to imagine a scenario totally beyond his control that would screw over both him and his lenders.

If I had that much capital, I would do it.  And, I'm seriously considering starting something similar.  But, I need to decide whether or not I want to pull the trigger....

Yep +1. The high prices would be a plus to him, as he's earning a percentage of the deposits (according to him).

I don't think pirate ever said high prices would hurt him, just large spikes at the wrong moment.

so why are people saying the higher it goes the more likely he will default?

is this simply not true?

Haha, touche.

Part of me wants everyone's bitching to stop, another part of me just wants to be a hypocrite and right 

Why does it matter? The price is higher than 2 months ago...

Here's some psychology for you.

#1)  People don't like to believe that some regular guy can just ask for a whole ton of BTC, receive them, and start manipulating an entire market.

Counter-point to #1)  It is absolutely possible for this to happen, both mathematically and based upon market psychology.

#2)  People don't like to believe that some regular guy can make at least 7% a week.  After all, most people here aren't making 7% per week, especially if you're not investing with Pirate or a pass-through.

Counter-point to #2)  It is absolutely possible for this to happen.  I've made 2000% in about 8 months from trading alone.  That 2000% doesn't include mining profits, product sales, or service sales.  Nor was it a full time job.  It was day trading.  And it was only on two exchanges.  And neither was Mt. Gox.

3)  People don't like to believe that one guy manipulating the market is even possible.

Counter-point to #3)  Yes, it really really is.  Bitcoin is a small community and only a small % of all Bitcoin users are actively watching or trading on the markets at any given time.  All you need is capital and balls and you can make the market your bitch.

4)  People don't like to think Pirate can do this by himself.

Counter-point to #4)  He's not.  He's supported by his lenders and his buyers.  He's found a niche between markets and there are many people involved.  But, he is the central node of pass-through capital.  As such, he can manipulate/control the market, but to believe he is doing it alone is a mistake.  It's because so many people are involved that he can make 7% happen quite easily.

Seriously, why is it so hard to believe Pirate did this?

Are you all sure it isn't just arrrbitrage?

Some people don't possess common sense. Don't waste your time trying to reason with these idiots who were taught to believe and insist upon what they want to believe rather than arrive to a conclusion based on what is logical. Seriously, don't.

Only the biggest of idiots would keep a market supported if their plans needed a minimal premium to their offerings.

Oh look, BTC is trading at 9.00 - manipulation my ass.

Sorry, but this thread belongs in a penny stock pumper forum, not bitcoin.

Some people find it easy to fuck around with other people's money, apparently.

I don't actuall buy this... I was watching a live (web socket) stream of fox AND in IRC (seem my constant messages about ;ticker being lagged) and when pirate pasted the link to the nickelback song "burn it to the ground" is when the drop happened.  The timing was far too perfect to be coincidence IMHO.

This.

Remember this guys:

marlath explains:

Wow that was gay.

Perhaps we should add this general rule to the bitcoin community safety guidelines:

If some guy jumps ups and down, waving his hands frenetically and claims he's THE ONE, don't give him your bitcoins!!

Oh, yeah, it is almost $9 now again, mr piratepulator sells his (well, almost his) coins again using 30k walls – watch. 

Ponzi it is, but he does not come out (judging by his posts) as an idiot who puts straight bid walls to get instantly sold into.

Market is far more mature than it was a year ago and there are plenty of big enough players just waiting for someone’s stupid move. Bots are just a noise. It is not only gox and few other guys (mostly interested in dumping at highest price) anymore.  There should be enough money on board to move 100k+ coins up and down instantly and current cautious trading reflects this fact.

On the other hand the pirate is trading against the market now and therefore his loss is imminent unless the market sentiment changes.

What "seems" is irrelevant without any proof, that's my point. In fact my point is that given the circumstances it would have been counter productive to actually do what he said he did.

Looks legit. I wonder how he did that?

and why did he say a rally is not good for Bitcoin? based on what? not sure if he gave reasoning in the log, it was too long; didn't read.

Whoever it was, obvious to me is that he holds a lot of Bitcoins and is intent on controlling the price. Was he responsible for taking down the forums too? If so, then it was an "influential" person in the anonymous Bitcoin world (if such exist). It's kind of sad if you ask me; Corruption is far worse for Bitcoin then a price spike. What a pussy for hiding in anonymity. This is exactly what I do not support Bitcoin.

I didn't think this thread was about whether or not he's running a ponzi. I'm not saying it isn't. I'm just saying he did seem to have a big part in last night's swings.

And ? If it actually were him what did he just do? Ask yourself this? Put yourselves in his shoes!

So let's say I'm doing what pirate claims he's doing.. I received a bunch of BTC from investors, investors that I promised I'll pay back their BTC + interest in BTC, and now I move my BTC on gox and I sell them into the bid wall. Great I now lowered the price a bit, I hold USD but unfortunately the price just keeps going up.. and soon I'll have to buy back the BTC to pay my investors!

So you tell me, how am I going to do that for less than or equal to what I got for them when I sold them when the price just keeps going up? IT MAKES ZERO SENSE.




On the other hand if I'm running a ponzi, I sure as heck would take advantage of volatility in the market and claim it's me moving it to perpetuate some myth about how it just might be possible for me to pay those outrageously high interest to my investors in order to lure even more people into my scheme. This on the other hand makes perfect sense.

I'll just update my probability of 30% confidence to 75% confidence that he is a manipulator.

EDIT: Change my mind back to 30% after reading a thread in the speculation forum.

Kiba:
http://i45.tinypic.com/2ngzj47.png

Meh. I still think he's just making shit up to just fuck with people.

How is that proof?  

Never mind, I'll just read the lesswrong posts. They're always interesting.

You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof.

He could be making shit up, but that's not what he said on #btcst today.

I suppose he could also be lying to his lenders, but that would be obviously stupid, in the long run.

Sounds like something he would do, too, just to fuck with everyone.

Unless we have cold hard evidence(TM) from mtgox, pirate is just making shit up.

I really doubt pirate was the one buying. I certainly believe that he's the one that did a massive sale and caused the dump though (with your coins). The end is approaching... I feel it.

Read these in the mindset of someone about to end a ponzi:

[2012-07-17 04:34:46] ErebusBat, this was kind of like a training simulation.
[2012-07-17 04:35:05] ErebusBat, it will all make sense soon enough.

[2012-07-17 06:04:13] can we expect more than 7% in our accounts next monday?
[2012-07-17 06:05:31] opticbit, as long as I hold your coins.. you'll be paid.

Well... does he hold your coins anymore? Or did he just sell them all?

It makes no sense to pre-announce a big sale unless you just don't care that much about the price and value the notoriety and ego value you get more than getting the absolute best price.

You can read the comedy that is his "admission" here: http://pastebin.com/PthgrzDS

Ahahahahaha, yeah? Uuuuhm no. 

Considering the dollar amounts involved to take out all those offers.... I'd say 'no'. Unless anyone has some actual corroborating evidence. The 'whiskers' on the candlestick chart look like a pure whipsaw panic to me. I don't buy the 'manipulator' story either - because only a sorry-assed idiot would tip their hand by cleaning out the order book.

Dunno if there's another thread discussing this, I just saw this on Reddit (original log on pastebin).