I think it is him. Though their are legit questions, for sure. Biggest two for me:
1) Why he'd go to such lengths to hide his identity and then be using his real name ? Doesn't make a lot of sense to be so paranoid and then...use your real name. But is conceivable if you consider he never expected bitcoin to be so big that people would try to track down every Satoshi N in the world.
2) Why he seems to have financial and health problems yet never tapped into his bitcoins.
I think it is him though... people are complicated. And often, the more intelligent the person, the more.... complicated their personality is. People are not fully logical and the contradictions seem to be consistent, so ya, I think it is him. I'd say I'm 70% sure if I had to put a number on it.
I think I can answer the first question. He never expected Bitcoin to gain this much popularity. If you look at his last posts before he disappeared, he was against using Bitcoins to fund Wikileaks because of the publicity it might bring. I actually now think that might have been the reason why he vanished in the first place.