Poll: How high will this current bull run go?

Warrior B

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Quote from: sgbett on November 04, 2015, 01:04:18 PM

Quote from: rebuilder on November 03, 2015, 07:19:54 AM

sgbett: The 10k crowd is pretty crazy too. How would that happen "in the next few months"?

Even assuming the insane 60% / mo growth rate of the last 30 days keeps up, we'd "only" reach 10k in june. That would be an increase of about 2600%, BTW.

Every parabolic top has always made the previous one look like a speed bump. Lets take a fairly naive history repeats itself scenario:

I'm of the opinion that the ~$260 blow off top in April '13 wasn't a full move. It was just the 'first sell /off bear trap' in the move from $15 to ~$1k

This time around we go from ~$250 to ~$15-20k, with first sell off / bear trap at around $4k back down to around $1000.

Get ready for *that* ride, ought to shake down a few of us

I really like your predictions sgbett. We all hope you get it right.
However I need to ask what time frame or when do you expect BTC reaches these values?

crytoboost

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I believe $500 will be minimum price before end of current month and will touch $600 in last week but will be stay $500 i am sure for this.

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: Linuld on November 10, 2015, 04:59:03 AM

Quote from: BitcoinFortune on November 10, 2015, 03:12:46 AM

The price is steady around $380 for a week now. The next short term bull run will reach $600. The actual height depends on the consolidation time.

Last few day prices are stabilizing around 380 range and it is good sign for the more stable bitcoin prices and if any good news comes in then this time we may go above 500 level for sure. But I don't think we can go to 1000 range any time soon for that bitcoins should be accepted by many mainstream businesses and it takes time.

I hold my btc and ltc myself..but yeah ...$11.5k usd...up in PROFIT....from Sept 6th ..the last time I sat down and figured out what I have on PAPER (again holding) was quite the shock!

Go baby Go! So we can sit here at these prices for a bit, don't want to be TOO greedy

(but ASIC gods I would like LTC to be a 'bit' more don't ya know ..thanks)

(er has to be ASIC Gods I still mine at least till the 2 KNC Titans go to Door Stop Status....)

Linuld

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Quote from: BitcoinFortune on November 10, 2015, 03:12:46 AM

The price is steady around $380 for a week now. The next short term bull run will reach $600. The actual height depends on the consolidation time.

Last few day prices are stabilizing around 380 range and it is good sign for the more stable bitcoin prices and if any good news comes in then this time we may go above 500 level for sure. But I don't think we can go to 1000 range any time soon for that bitcoins should be accepted by many mainstream businesses and it takes time.

BitcoinFortune

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The price is steady around $380 for a week now. The next short term bull run will reach $600. The actual height depends on the consolidation time.

newcripto

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Quote from: larry12 on November 04, 2015, 01:45:48 PM

+1

I can bet the bulls will stop aroud 500$... maybe we can see 500+ feb/march 2016”. From this moment (aroud 470-480) the price will fall to 300-350$.

I don't think we will see that much falls of price to reach in range of 300-350$.But I will do agree doe 450-470 $ in where price will be settled for some period exact how it was in 220-240 $ range almost all the year long.

larry12

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+1

I can bet the bulls will stop aroud 500$... maybe we can see 500+ feb/march 2016”. From this moment (aroud 470-480) the price will fall to 300-350$.

Hugroll

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it seems to have peaked at $500 for today it was around 490 in the morning peaked at 500 and is currently at 470rn.
i dont think its going to go any higher than 500 this week. kinda feels like were only headed back down from here

fantoos

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This current bull run will stop at 2000 USD and then we will see some stability in prices for some period.Prices were very good today and then later we saw some correction in these so there will be many sessions in which price will increase gradually over the time.

MissionPhailed

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I tend to think that a price of $10.000 and higher is unrealistic. On the other hand, I thought the same about $1.000 in the first months of 2013.

Its strange to think that 99% of the people on the streets are unaware about the current development of Bitcoin. What if only 5% of the general public would have interest in crypto? Prices could surge so much that you'd eventually can buy a car with 0,25 BTC or something.

sgbett

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Quote from: rebuilder on November 03, 2015, 07:19:54 AM

sgbett: The 10k crowd is pretty crazy too. How would that happen "in the next few months"?

Even assuming the insane 60% / mo growth rate of the last 30 days keeps up, we'd "only" reach 10k in june. That would be an increase of about 2600%, BTW.

Every parabolic top has always made the previous one look like a speed bump. Lets take a fairly naive history repeats itself scenario:

I'm of the opinion that the ~$260 blow off top in April '13 wasn't a full move. It was just the 'first sell /off bear trap' in the move from $15 to ~$1k

This time around we go from ~$250 to ~$15-20k, with first sell off / bear trap at around $4k back down to around $1000.

Get ready for *that* ride, ought to shake down a few of us

DiamondCardz

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Quote from: ndnh on November 04, 2015, 12:22:15 PM

Quote from: DiamondCardz on November 04, 2015, 12:17:24 PM

..actually hold that price level as it's ridiculously high ..

IMO, you can't really say that. It is an illusion just that you see 1 entire bitcoin as 1 unit. You could see 1 mBTC or even 1 satoshi as 1 unit..

But it could of course go the other way when the whales close and reverse their position. It would happen when a bad news come out or something that makes all whales do it simultaneously..

I don't see what the divisibility of Bitcoin has to do with thinking that at a certain price it would be too expensive for its current activity.

I kind of see what you mean but I think you've missed my point a bit.

MissionPhailed

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My guesstimate would be a hight of around $750, reached this month. Bitcoin has picked up real momentum although massive panic sells may occur. I think crypto will 'act' much more volatile for the time being than we've seen throughout 2015.

ndnh

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New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

Quote from: DiamondCardz on November 04, 2015, 12:17:24 PM

..actually hold that price level as it's ridiculously high ..

IMO, you can't really say that. It is an illusion just that you see 1 entire bitcoin as 1 unit. You could see 1 mBTC or even 1 satoshi as 1 unit..

But it could of course go the other way when the whales close and reverse their position. It would happen when a bad news come out or something that makes all whales do it simultaneously..

DiamondCardz

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To be honest I think we could hit anywhere from $1000-2000 in this bull run, though you can never tell. Of course, I sincerely doubt that we can actually hold that price level as it's ridiculously high and it would definitely indicate a bubble of some sort which would probably burst quite quick.

d5000

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Decentralization Maximalist

I vote for about $700-750 for 2015. Then there could be a flash crash, but it's possible that later in 2016 the rally can continue to new all time highs.

erre

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Quote

Looks like 40% of the pool was already proven wrong

ndnh

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New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

One question, why is $10,000 the highest? Grin

Quote from: Alley on November 04, 2015, 12:09:22 PM

Quote from: BitcoinFortune on November 04, 2015, 11:11:34 AM

Quote from: frank0929 on November 04, 2015, 06:11:45 AM

My guess is 10.000$ all time high before block halving.

Call me crazy or whatever you want, but I believe in this. We wait for 2 years. Now it's our time!

$10k is only possible after 2020 block halving. At that time, the block halving is not as important as the block reward is relatively small. With 17 million bitcoin, $10 price increase means $170M market capitalization increase.

I agree. Selling pressure would be too high with miners dumping 1800 coins after the halving at 10k per coin. That's 18 million per day in new cash to sustain a 10k coin after the halving.

Miners won't sell much if they think price is going up.

Alley

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Quote from: BitcoinFortune on November 04, 2015, 11:11:34 AM

Quote from: frank0929 on November 04, 2015, 06:11:45 AM

My guess is 10.000$ all time high before block halving.

Call me crazy or whatever you want, but I believe in this. We wait for 2 years. Now it's our time!

$10k is only possible after 2020 block halving. At that time, the block halving is not as important as the block reward is relatively small. With 17 million bitcoin, $10 price increase means $170M market capitalization increase.

I agree. Selling pressure would be too high with miners dumping 1800 coins after the halving at 10k per coin. That's 18 million per day in new cash to sustain a 10k coin after the halving.

~Bitcoin~

legendary

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I have voted for 1000$ mark which seems reasonable as bitcoin has already hit that point in past. But it can even go higher as the past chinese trader are now on their way to buy more and more bitcoin.

BitcoinFortune

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Quote from: frank0929 on November 04, 2015, 06:11:45 AM

My guess is 10.000$ all time high before block halving.

Call me crazy or whatever you want, but I believe in this. We wait for 2 years. Now it's our time!

$10k is only possible after 2020 block halving. At that time, the block halving is not as important as the block reward is relatively small. With 17 million bitcoin, $10 price increase means $170M market capitalization increase.

frank0929

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My guess is 10.000$ all time high before block halving.

Call me crazy or whatever you want, but I believe in this. We wait for 2 years. Now it's our time!

1Referee

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Quote from: jtalk on November 04, 2015, 05:42:37 AM

This is not bubble by anyway this is real and long term investment in bitcoin which is caused of recent speculation.Major role is of Chinese investors and this time situation is totally different than 2013 so I can say this wave of rising will stop somewhere around 5000-7000 $ this time.Bitcoin is to be traded in umbtc not as whole Btc in future.

$5000-$7000 is too high for now. I am already happy if we can see a new ATH next year, and hopefully we stay above $1000 for a long time. There is a long way to go, but all signs look more than good. Bitfinex reached another high of $464.99 just now.

jtalk

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This is not bubble by anyway this is real and long term investment in bitcoin which is caused of recent speculation.Major role is of Chinese investors and this time situation is totally different than 2013 so I can say this wave of rising will stop somewhere around 5000-7000 $ this time.Bitcoin is to be traded in umbtc not as whole Btc in future.

LMGTFY

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Quote from: fearlesscat10 on November 04, 2015, 05:11:33 AM

Anyone got ideas on why this is happening again? Sure the situation might seem similar but the reasons behind them seem suspicious.

There's a premium on Chinese exchanges, suggesting that China is driving this. This article has some ideas about what China's up to, but it doesn't mention a relaxation of exchange controls (people can once again deposit CNY direct from their bank to a Chinese exchange). The Chinese exchanges are extremely keen to emphasise that none of this is due to people evading capital controls, which makes me think that it is very important to Chinese exchanges that they not be seen to be helping people evade capital controls...!

I have no idea how high the current run will go. I can see two possible scenarios - (1) it continues into next year, as halving approaches, and we see prices that are orders of magnitude higher than we're used to, before crashing, or (2) in the next month or two there's a crash, before another run up prior to the halving. There are other possibilities, of course, but with peoples' expectations around the halving I think demand will stay high.

abonarea

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I am quite sure that this current speculation will take the price of bitcoin at least 1500 $ and all this will happen before the halving and then there will take place another speculation which should take it at about 10 k bitcoin by the end of next year.

fearlesscat10

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Quote from: Amph on November 04, 2015, 03:53:51 AM

Quote from: BlockEye on November 03, 2015, 10:04:56 PM

What was the highest rate last year at same month of November? I heard whats happening lately is similar to what happened last year and it peaked at December

the bubble of 1200 ath, started late in novemeber, not like this one, so comparison cnnot be made directly

but many agree that we are increasing in a similar way

Anyone got ideas on why this is happening again? Sure the situation might seem similar but the reasons behind them seem suspicious.

Amph

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Quote from: BlockEye on November 03, 2015, 10:04:56 PM

What was the highest rate last year at same month of November? I heard whats happening lately is similar to what happened last year and it peaked at December

the bubble of 1200 ath, started late in novemeber, not like this one, so comparison cnnot be made directly

but many agree that we are increasing in a similar way

monbux

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Quote from: rebuilder on November 03, 2015, 07:19:54 AM

sgbett: The 10k crowd is pretty crazy too. How would that happen "in the next few months"?

Even assuming the insane 60% / mo growth rate of the last 30 days keeps up, we'd "only" reach 10k in june. That would be an increase of about 2600%, BTW.

Honestly, you'd think that is crazy, but people also thought bitcoin going from $50 to $1200 in a couple of months was impossible as well Roll Eyes

. I am proud to know that with bitcoin, anything can happen.

zimmah

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Quote from: BlockEye on November 03, 2015, 10:04:56 PM

What was the highest rate last year at same month of November? I heard whats happening lately is similar to what happened last year and it peaked at December

dont know exactly but the last 3 days it was 186% in those 3 days alone.

BlockEye

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Bounty Mngr & Article Writer https://goo.gl/p4Agsh

What was the highest rate last year at same month of November? I heard whats happening lately is similar to what happened last year and it peaked at December

frenulum

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Whatever about how high it goes, I'm more concerned about how low will it burst.
FWIW, I'm guessing it will go up around 1200, and burst to around 600.

zimmah

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Quote from: rebuilder on November 03, 2015, 07:19:54 AM

sgbett: The 10k crowd is pretty crazy too. How would that happen "in the next few months"?

Even assuming the insane 60% / mo growth rate of the last 30 days keeps up, we'd "only" reach 10k in june. That would be an increase of about 2600%, BTW.

2600% increases have happened before i believe, or at least insane % increases have happened.

not impossible and at this rate not even that unlikely.

roadbits

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I don't think it will move even another couple of hundreds from here unless some on have a very good reason. Actually we need to worry if it moves so fast. I think maximum another hundred it may go or even less. I have already accumulated few bitcoins so now I will just wait and watch the price movements.

RealMalatesta

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Quote from: rebuilder on November 03, 2015, 07:19:54 AM

sgbett: The 10k crowd is pretty crazy too. How would that happen "in the next few months"?

Even assuming the insane 60% / mo growth rate of the last 30 days keeps up, we'd "only" reach 10k in june. That would be an increase of about 2600%, BTW.

Hm, basically, this could sum up - the halving is scheduled for about this time, isn't it? But I'd be happy if it reaches 2500 by then :-)

rebuilder

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sgbett: The 10k crowd is pretty crazy too. How would that happen "in the next few months"?

Even assuming the insane 60% / mo growth rate of the last 30 days keeps up, we'd "only" reach 10k in june. That would be an increase of about 2600%, BTW.

sgbett

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it looks like 27 people are living in a dreamworld....

which 27 though .... recent high of $387 says its not the group you might think

BitcoinFortune

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If this bull run last for 3-5 years, $10,000 is a possible target. However, we need more adoption of bitcoin in the whole society.

smith coins

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How high? i am really thinking that the price will reach $350.
If not today i believe that at least this week of course.
About the end of the year i think that somewhere $400 at least.

tradoz

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I think this time will hit $500 easily with this up trend with solid rise but so many trade experts giving signals it can break the barrier and will be stable around this price before end of this month.

RealMalatesta

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The question is what "a couple of months" means. In the short term, 450 is a valid goal. Given the fact that several bigger corporations are starting to embrace Bitcoin and that several applications will soon be released and will make Bitcoin easier for noobs, I guess a value of 2500 to 3000 within the next year is maybe a bit optimistic, but can't be excluded. However, we all don't know what the whales will do....

Q7

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Well, I actually voted 375 few days earlier but looking at the current scenario, probably it will even hit 400 before it will retrace slightly and from there continue the charge to move further upwards. Just hope for the best because once we have a breakthrough, it will have the possibilityy to go up insanely high to a level we never would have thought to occur.

jt byte

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If i were OP i would list the price in the opposite way.
From the highest to the lowest, anyway i think that for the next few months it can reach $500
Maybe hard to believe but this is the truth and my prediction, at least after halving period this should be reached.

Biodom

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Quote from: worhiper_-_ on November 01, 2015, 01:33:42 PM

BTC/USD already started trailing below 315$ so I guess the bull run was short lived. I wouldn't expect any ore significant price bumps from that point on, the price struggled to stay at high levels, this "bull run was very weak". If you have a fear of being left behind, then don't worry. The MMM republic of bitcoin, which is likely the sole reason this whole price bump took place, is moving with a slow pace and likely not doing so well. No matter how desperate Sergey Mavrodi is with promotion, pyramid schemes are doomed to fail and this one is taking down the bitcoin price.

very much an ad hoc explanation. i never knew about mmm, never used it and i am sure that 95-99% of bitcoiners are in the same situation.
BTW, the price is $321 now.

worhiper_-_

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BTC/USD already started trailing below 315$ so I guess the bull run was short lived. I wouldn't expect any ore significant price bumps from that point on, the price struggled to stay at high levels, this "bull run was very weak". If you have a fear of being left behind, then don't worry. The MMM republic of bitcoin, which is likely the sole reason this whole price bump took place, is moving with a slow pace and likely not doing so well. No matter how desperate Sergey Mavrodi is with promotion, pyramid schemes are doomed to fail and this one is taking down the bitcoin price.

rjclarke2000

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Depends whether people keep dumping for minimal profits or not

Warrior B

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IDK guys but I'm definitely not selling a fraction of Bitcoin until the halving

Kanapka

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420

but thre is no such option

croato

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1BkEzspSxp2zzHiZTtUZJ6TjEb1hERFdRr

I hope it will go back to 250ish soon, have cashed out at 300$ lol, but it looks like it can go to around 400$ before that.

uki

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Quote from: futurebit640 on November 01, 2015, 12:12:36 AM

Quote from: Mickeyb on October 31, 2015, 05:14:06 PM

We did fall down all the way to $307 on Bitfinex. I think that everybody are in a waiting mode at the moment and people are waiting for someone to make a move with a huge sell or huge buy.

I hope we will stay above $300 though. It would be great to form a floor here!

Prices after hitting around 335 to 340 range now looks like slowly cooling down. Today prices are already less then 320 range so I think it will settle down around 300 or slightly less the 300 range for some time before moving up again. If this cooling happens then it is good for btc prices to move up again otherwise if just move one direction without correction then it may come back also very fast.

well that is definitely needed to cool down the technical indicators. As long as we do not go under $285, it should be all fine. First 'psychological' support should be seen at $300. I believe we may retest the real supports below $300 this time. That would make the recent rise very healthy, and would spare the fuel for the next leg up.

futurebit640

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Quote from: Mickeyb on October 31, 2015, 05:14:06 PM

We did fall down all the way to $307 on Bitfinex. I think that everybody are in a waiting mode at the moment and people are waiting for someone to make a move with a huge sell or huge buy.

I hope we will stay above $300 though. It would be great to form a floor here!

Prices after hitting around 335 to 340 range now looks like slowly cooling down. Today prices are already less then 320 range so I think it will settle down around 300 or slightly less the 300 range for some time before moving up again. If this cooling happens then it is good for btc prices to move up again otherwise if just move one direction without correction then it may come back also very fast.

BitcoinFortune

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Quote from: Mickeyb on October 31, 2015, 05:14:06 PM

We did fall down all the way to $307 on Bitfinex. I think that everybody are in a waiting mode at the moment and people are waiting for someone to make a move with a huge sell or huge buy.

I hope we will stay above $300 though. It would be great to form a floor here!

Staying around $300 (280-320) is fine. Bitcoin will not die easily. There are more usage for bitcoin now. It has bright future.

Mickeyb

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Move On !!!!!!

We did fall down all the way to $307 on Bitfinex. I think that everybody are in a waiting mode at the moment and people are waiting for someone to make a move with a huge sell or huge buy.

I hope we will stay above $300 though. It would be great to form a floor here!

mirana12345

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PM me to buy traffic for your site!

If there is manipulation of some sort here, i doubt we will go high, as their goal would be to gain more coins, and not to increase their value now.
So i'm guessing we're going to keep bouncing up and down, until there are enough coins shaken down by those who pull the strings of the market, and only then do i expect five figure numbers and more.

Amph

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i believe the correct answer is not displayed, since i believe that we are not touching 350, this time we went a bit higher, but that's it

crazy values like 1k-10k range cannot be true until there are always the same people involved in the market, with their bots..

hasiramasenju

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the highest price at Bitstamp in the next month i think is around $375 - $400 but probably less than it
because the price now dropped rapidly last update is only at $319

jeffthebaker

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Quote from: BitcoinFortune on October 31, 2015, 11:42:16 AM

Quote from: jeffthebaker on October 31, 2015, 11:35:59 AM

Hmmm, where is the option for $350 or less?

$350 will most likely become the new $300, and I expect a lot of investors to sell off once the psychological number hits. China shouldn't be used as proof otherwise, since the equivalent of $350 in their currency isn't any special number, and 0 free trading allows them to stray further from the overall market.

The OP does not think the price will stop at £350 or less. If the price rise only $1-3 a day, it can run very long.

Well, if the price does rise each day, then you are right in that the bull run can go for a potentially very long time. However, the run is already losing steam, and appears to be quickly coming to a close. The price has dropped pretty significantly in the last 12 hours.

dothebeats

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Cashback 15%

Quote from: RomertL on October 31, 2015, 04:11:12 AM

Interesting an inverted normal distribution - people seem to believe it will either go very high or not so high with few on middle ground. People are either bears or uber-bulls for some reason.

That's what the market is filled with: bears and uber (delusional) bulls. I wonder where the sane bulls went?

--

Can OP make an update with the poll? $350 option is lacking in there.

BitcoinFortune

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Quote from: jeffthebaker on October 31, 2015, 11:35:59 AM

Hmmm, where is the option for $350 or less?

$350 will most likely become the new $300, and I expect a lot of investors to sell off once the psychological number hits. China shouldn't be used as proof otherwise, since the equivalent of $350 in their currency isn't any special number, and 0 free trading allows them to stray further from the overall market.

The OP does not think the price will stop at £350 or less. If the price rise only $1-3 a day, it can run very long.

jeffthebaker

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Hmmm, where is the option for $350 or less?

$350 will most likely become the new $300, and I expect a lot of investors to sell off once the psychological number hits. China shouldn't be used as proof otherwise, since the equivalent of $350 in their currency isn't any special number, and 0 free trading allows them to stray further from the overall market.

uki

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cryptojunk bag holder

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 09:10:29 PM

Quote from: BitcoinFortune on October 30, 2015, 12:47:53 PM

After the block halving, the price might drop if there is no new money coming for bitcoin. If there is fresh money, price will still rise.

I seriously doubt this, the reason is simple:

The previous years, we have reached a point where despite a lot of downward pressure from miners and shops constantly selling of bitcoins the price remained stable, because investors bought enough Bitcoin to absorb supply.

Now with the halving, miners will sell only half of what they used to, and although the amount of shops increases, the amount of people using Bitcoin will increase as well, so that should account for much downward pressure anymore. The downward pressure will therefore be much lower, while the upward pressure will be at least the same, if not higher, therefore the new price level will be higher than it is today.

It will of course find a new equilibrium sometime, and it will probable overshoot first, than slowly go down until it hits the equilibrium price. But I wouldn't be surprised if the new base price would settle somewhere around $1800. Overshooting to $3000 or $5000 isn't unlikely at all.

If anything above estimations are most likely too cautious even.

Based on what you claim that the price should settle at $1800? that would mean nearly 10x from where we were in spring/summer. I don't see price rising that much, just because of halving. Maybe we could arrive to $1800 of the peak value that would be ATH btw., but staying there stable? Why?
think also about total market cap. Growing it ten times would mean there is much more demand or the scope of application of Bitcoin has increased drastically in comparison to what we have now. Do you see that coming in less than one year? I, personally, doubt it very much.

zimmah

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Quote from: BitcoinFortune on October 31, 2015, 02:23:59 AM

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 09:10:29 PM

It will of course find a new equilibrium sometime, and it will probable overshoot first, than slowly go down until it hits the equilibrium price. But I wouldn't be surprised if the new base price would settle somewhere around $1800. Overshooting to $3000 or $5000 isn't unlikely at all.

If anything above estimations are most likely too cautious even.

$1800 could be the top of this bull run. Then it might drop again to $900 or lower as it did before. If this bull runs slowly, it might not drop below $900.

when did bitcoin bulls ever run slowly?

It's the bear markets that are slow, the bulls are quick and short.

Quote from: 1Referee on October 31, 2015, 03:35:08 AM

I just voted for $500 as that seems a more than reasonable price level to settle at. If we maintain to have a price stable above $500, and the support there is strong enough to catch dumps without going below $500 again, we'll surely advance further.

that's not how it works, that's not how any of this works.

Quote from: RomertL on October 31, 2015, 04:11:12 AM

Interesting an inverted normal distribution - people seem to believe it will either go very high or not so high with few on middle ground. People are either bears or uber-bulls for some reason.

people either are new to bitcoin, or know how bitcoin behaves.

Bitcoin either trades sideways-slowly down (long term bear market) or goes through the roof (not the roof of your house, but the roof of the universe).

Bull markets are really short but they take of like a rocket. They are fucking parabolic on a log chart, that's how fast they rise. But they only last for a short time.

People find it hard to believe bitcoin (or anything at all) can rise 100x in a month or so, but it has done so before, and it will do so again.

Sure, everyone knows growth like this can not go on forever, I'm no fool, I know it can't go on forever, but it can and will go on until bitcoin is a respectable size, and we haven't reached that stage yet. There's no reason to believe bitcoin won't go through at least 2 or 3 more of such rises.

If you think otherwise, you don't know bitcoin well enough.

RomertL

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Interesting an inverted normal distribution - people seem to believe it will either go very high or not so high with few on middle ground. People are either bears or uber-bulls for some reason.

1Referee

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I just voted for $500 as that seems a more than reasonable price level to settle at. If we maintain to have a price stable above $500, and the support there is strong enough to catch dumps without going below $500 again, we'll surely advance further.

BitcoinFortune

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Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 09:10:29 PM

It will of course find a new equilibrium sometime, and it will probable overshoot first, than slowly go down until it hits the equilibrium price. But I wouldn't be surprised if the new base price would settle somewhere around $1800. Overshooting to $3000 or $5000 isn't unlikely at all.

If anything above estimations are most likely too cautious even.

$1800 could be the top of this bull run. Then it might drop again to $900 or lower as it did before. If this bull runs slowly, it might not drop below $900.

zimmah

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Quote from: BitcoinFortune on October 30, 2015, 12:47:53 PM

After the block halving, the price might drop if there is no new money coming for bitcoin. If there is fresh money, price will still rise.

I seriously doubt this, the reason is simple:

The previous years, we have reached a point where despite a lot of downward pressure from miners and shops constantly selling of bitcoins the price remained stable, because investors bought enough Bitcoin to absorb supply.

Now with the halving, miners will sell only half of what they used to, and although the amount of shops increases, the amount of people using Bitcoin will increase as well, so that should account for much downward pressure anymore. The downward pressure will therefore be much lower, while the upward pressure will be at least the same, if not higher, therefore the new price level will be higher than it is today.

It will of course find a new equilibrium sometime, and it will probable overshoot first, than slowly go down until it hits the equilibrium price. But I wouldn't be surprised if the new base price would settle somewhere around $1800. Overshooting to $3000 or $5000 isn't unlikely at all.

If anything above estimations are most likely too cautious even.

zimmah

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Quote from: Mickeyb on October 30, 2015, 10:32:17 AM

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 07:55:11 AM

Quite a lot of people who voted for $3000+ amazing, I thought most people were much more pessimistic.

I don't know, I think that $3,000 is way too high. I wouldn't expect that in my wildest dreams. I think we will go up to $500 this run and there we will run out of steam for a while.

I do see that we approach $3,000 just before the halving. This is quite possible in my opinion.

The wording in OP is a bit confusing, he said "this rally" but also says "the next few months".

It's likely this rally will end and a new rally will form within the next few months, and the second rally might bring us north of $2000 easily.

rocks

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Quote from: Mickeyb on October 30, 2015, 10:32:17 AM

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 07:55:11 AM

Quite a lot of people who voted for $3000+ amazing, I thought most people were much more pessimistic.

I don't know, I think that $3,000 is way too high. I wouldn't expect that in my wildest dreams. I think we will go up to $500 this run and there we will run out of steam for a while.

I do see that we approach $3,000 just before the halving. This is quite possible in my opinion.

I remember when $10 was "way too high" and $100 was "not a serious goal". Now these are price points that I doubt we will ever see again.

$3,000 is only a market cap of $44B, or more likely $35B after lost coins are taken into account. That is less than 1 week of central bank funny money printing, which is nothing in today's world.

Unless you need the money for rent/food, it is crazy to sell now IMHO. It reminds me of all those traders who sold into the early 2013 rally through $20, only to watch bitcoin go above $100 and never come back down.

uki

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cryptojunk bag holder

Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 10:36:34 AM

Quote from: Zarathustra on October 30, 2015, 10:16:13 AM

Quote from: Alonzo Ewing on October 29, 2015, 11:20:59 PM

What will the high be on Bitstamp in dollar terms of the current rally, i.e., next few months?

How do you define a rally as terminated? After a correction of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent?

I define it as a fast and progressive decline in price, usually spanning with only a few weeks or days depending on how the market reacts to it. That's just my own definition, I don't know how others view it. But it is very different from retraces and corrections, very different I may say.

this definition you provided is very imprecise, as it leaves too much for a subjective interpretation. See my earlier comment in this thread on that. Usually in the stock markets a 20% move in the opposite direction would be a clear sign of a new trend. Would such definition fit your needs?

buddu

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Activity: 700

Merit: 500

$ 10000 is the price to see sooner.This current uptrend will not stop and take the price straight to $ 10 k at least this time.Hold your Bitcoins or cry later choice is yours.

electronicfactura

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Merit: 500

I gave vote for 450 USD which seems to me fair price and then we will see some stability plus correction and once halving of blocks will take place again there will be a speedy rises in price which will take it to about 1000 $ till the end of next year.

jaberwock

legendary

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Merit: 1074

why no option under 375?

I think 420 because of the graphs

sana9821

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Activity: 420

Merit: 250

i hope that the price will rise to at least 450 dollars though most probably we will stop at somewhere in 350 dollars per bitcoin

ronald98

sr. member

Activity: 314

Merit: 250

Quote from: dothebeats on October 30, 2015, 12:52:27 PM

Quote from: maokoto on October 30, 2015, 11:51:24 AM

I see many people selling when the barrier of 300$ dollar breaks, so I only expect 375$ or less. Hope that feeling is mistaken, though.

It seems that the markets don't want to agree on the $375 top this bull run. At the time of this writing, Huobi sits at $350 per coin, so that means only $25 more and we can say hello to that dear price and a chance to leave it behind for quite some time. Also, more and more money is being poured at this bull run, so it is not far from being a reality that we will be seeing more than $375 anytime sooner.

Either the drop to 314 was consolidation, or it was a dead cat bounce. If it goes back above 335 then it will probably hit 375 soon. If it drops below 314 I don't think we'll see 375 for another month or so. The Chinese exchanges can drop awfully fast and go up frighteningly fast. They did both today and they will probably start yo-yo-ing te price again when they wake up.

dothebeats

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Cashback 15%

Quote from: maokoto on October 30, 2015, 11:51:24 AM

I see many people selling when the barrier of 300$ dollar breaks, so I only expect 375$ or less. Hope that feeling is mistaken, though.

It seems that the markets don't want to agree on the $375 top this bull run. At the time of this writing, Huobi sits at $350 per coin, so that means only $25 more and we can say hello to that dear price and a chance to leave it behind for quite some time. Also, more and more money is being poured at this bull run, so it is not far from being a reality that we will be seeing more than $375 anytime sooner.

BitcoinFortune

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After the block halving, the price might drop if there is no new money coming for bitcoin. If there is fresh money, price will still rise.

maokoto

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✪ NEXCHANGE | BTC, LTC, ETH & DOGE ✪

I see many people selling when the barrier of 300$ dollar breaks, so I only expect 375$ or less. Hope that feeling is mistaken, though.

richardsNY

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Activity: 1232

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I think the bull run will last at least till after the block halving. That's also why I will hold my coins till that time. Patience will be rewarded. $700 at most.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

As a pure guess I'll say there's not much steam left. It'll settle back to late 200s until next year sometime. Having said that we know what sometimes happens in November...

BitcoinFortune

newbie

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The current bull will go to around $2000, then it will drop to test $1200 again. I do not know how long it will take to achieve $2000. If it runs very fast, then it could even drop below $1200.

randy8777

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my guess is $350-$400 for this year. before the bull run started i didn't even expected the price to break through the $300 barrier this year. china is definitely up to something.

dothebeats

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Cashback 15%

Quote from: Zarathustra on October 30, 2015, 10:16:13 AM

Quote from: Alonzo Ewing on October 29, 2015, 11:20:59 PM

What will the high be on Bitstamp in dollar terms of the current rally, i.e., next few months?

How do you define a rally as terminated? After a correction of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent?

I define it as a fast and progressive decline in price, usually spanning with only a few weeks or days depending on how the market reacts to it. That's just my own definition, I don't know how others view it. But it is very different from retraces and corrections, very different I may say.

Mickeyb

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Move On !!!!!!

Quote from: zimmah on October 30, 2015, 07:55:11 AM

Quite a lot of people who voted for $3000+ amazing, I thought most people were much more pessimistic.

I don't know, I think that $3,000 is way too high. I wouldn't expect that in my wildest dreams. I think we will go up to $500 this run and there we will run out of steam for a while.

I do see that we approach $3,000 just before the halving. This is quite possible in my opinion.

Zarathustra

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Quote from: Alonzo Ewing on October 29, 2015, 11:20:59 PM

What will the high be on Bitstamp in dollar terms of the current rally, i.e., next few months?

How do you define a rally as terminated? After a correction of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more percent?

MissionPhailed

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Activity: 583

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Voted $500. Height will be reached around New Year's Eve, the first months of 2016 will be 'cheaper' ($250-350). Then a new surge in price that could pass $1000 again for the first time since december 2013. Long story short; I think the coming months we'll see the price going up in general but with significant ups and downs ... !

spazzdla

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360, then back to 220-240.

Denker

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Maybe $400 to $450 until the end of this year if things work out fine.That would be a really nice finish for 2015.

Nahl

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to be honest i'm quite surprised to see bitcoin price right now and never thought will pass $320 with fast to rising up
but next month i think we will hit at $400

mtnsaa

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$400-500 is definitely possible, but we can't know for sure, for me it is just a hunch, I'm being honest. Next year is another story.

uki

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Activity: 1358

Merit: 1000

cryptojunk bag holder

Is it possible to add some lower values, like 350? I would have voted lower if I could. My vote went to $375. Also what is meant by the current rally? it is a bit unprecise statement. How many down days do you need to say the rally is over? Would a 20% correction that would cancel a rally? Without that clearly delimited we are being very imprecise here.

trafficolaa

legendary

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I have voted to $400 because it looks more realistic for current trend it seems we will cross this floor and will get stable price on over $300 this time it has more good chance as like it is going to moon now.

traderbit

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

For the next few months it should be 500 - 600.
I am saying this based on the recent pumps.
And it this trend goes on we will see the real bitcoin power.

UnDerDoG81

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Activity: 2179

Merit: 1201

Voted $600. Pessimistic but realistic.

98problems

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Activity: 364

Merit: 250

i would vote for about 330 dollars each though there is no such option so i voted for 375 lets hope it will reach it

zimmah

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Activity: 1106

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Quite a lot of people who voted for $3000+ amazing, I thought most people were much more pessimistic.

Alonzo Ewing

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What will the high be on Bitstamp in dollar terms of the current rally, i.e., next few months?

Topic: Poll: How high will this current bull run go? (Read 5597 times)