Topic: [POLL] How will Pirateat40's debt repayment unfold? (Read 12872 times)

poll reset

Cute.

$500 is nothing around here .would you go $50,000 ?
il choose the escrow 

Think Pirate is a scam?

I have another $500 I am willing to offer in this wager.

Given that the going market rate for pirate debt is 12%  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/1-104052 I will only be accepting offers of 1:4 odds or better for the next bet slot.  Thus I would be willing to wager this next $500 against $2,000 or better.   Contact me with an offer if interested.

All bets will be escrowed here through Garr 255 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bet-escrow-104494  He has kindly offered to escrow my bets.

Bet terms are indexed in Garr's thread.

Feel free to change your vote.

Makes sense though. By losing a 5000 BTC bet, his creditors will think he's definitely not going to pay and his debt price will plummet possibly below original deposits even.

This would send your ass to jail IRL, but in anonymous Bitcoin Wild West I can see him pulling it off.

I would love to lose a 5000 BTC bet in order to pull off a Scam worth 500,000 BTC.

He wouldn't need to be impatient about that. Every day his debt is worth less, that does actually beat the interest he owes. If Vandroiy wins his bet, the debt is going to plummet and then he should be able to buy a good chunk of it.

Thank you for this assessment.  One of the better opinions in this debate giving an alternative way to look at it.  Kudos 

The amount of USD he would need to purchase the balance of the coin he needs to repay is not huge. Even the total amount of coin needed calculated in USD is not a very large amount of USD. (even if you calculate the real prices with slippage)

A few million dollars isn't really that much money. Given the potential future value of the coin he does hold, I'm fairly confident in his borrowing ability, and therefore his ability to come up with the coin. I'm still pretty bullish on pirate repaying.

I've had orders on the GLBSE book for various PPT issues, on both the bid & ask sides, and have seen very little movement, or volume. Pirate is not purchasing his own debt at a discount in any significant way AFAICT. People suggesting he's doing this have clearly not researched what they're saying.

As predicted by several people here, the scam didn't just end with the collapse of the ponzi (more than 2 weeks ago) but other low-grade scams to fleece even greater fools.

It was also accompanied by a few side-shows, courtesy of mentally-diminished shills, delusional victims, and infantile wagers to demonstrate who will "put their money where their mouths are."

The bitcoin community deserves nothing less.

He most definitely already defaulted, but as far as repayment goes, I voted he will not be able to pay... ever.

1. Compound interest

2. The funds he's moving around are not currently in BTC. Unless he has a fixed option price for buying ~500k BTC he'll be driving the price up exponentially if he attempts to buy.

3. Knowing this, those day traders that are out there in anticipation are holding on to their BTC so they can be right at the top of the wave. this makes a higher peak.

4. This one is not related to the others, but what if he's a psychopath? This is a defining characteristic of Madoff. Confidence men are all about saying how they have close friends and they take time to make others feel warm and fuzzy. I doubt this is the case, but once bitten twice shy, right? I only know the guy from text posts on the internet.

i think he has already defaulted if the latest statement says he doesnt have the coins to return  now and doesnt know when he is likely to have them so will not be giving any further  timeframes or dates

It depends on which scenario a person is referring to.

FTFY

then by that definition, it was never actually over.

Things like that have been said for over a week. In my book it's over until something new happens.

See you tomorrow

It seems to me that it's pretty much all over.

It's a good way to eliminate a lot of his debt. If he pays everyone else back also it was a great way to spin all the negative Ponzi team vibes in his favor.  As long as it's done before Mikes bet is complete. That would be epic.

The way things are going, it wouldnt suprise me if Pirate bought up his own debt for 30% face value and then repayed it all (to himself).

I don't expect we will have any news until Tuesday.

Can someone enlighten me?  Did the beloved Pirateat40 run with the money?

Interesting, it seems its a 50/50 in regards to if he will pay or not.

For the rest, we alreay saw it. Lot of deposit takers seemed to have shut down (how surprising...).

People will be more cautious maybe, I dunno.

Some people will disappear lol. I know I won't. I'm assuming my mistakes, and still am 100% sure of Pirate not being a scammer (even in the event of a partial default).

What do you (and other pirate lenders) hope happens here if pirate doesn't pay back?

You are all intellectually lazy....by writing nice pitoresque and fabulous stories  smoking and mirroring the crime scene which was hertofore born out of a community spirit

with OTC Ratings and personal trust.....from there on pirate started.....may be still proud of his own reputation...went down the slippery slope of a celebrity......applauded

by the colluders ( yes all those perpetrators off the same ponzi with the oldest accounts),

feeded by coins and coins he couldn´t even attach a buiseness model to.........and spiraled BTC from uselessness after the last crash to a ponzi currency...which´s sole purpose

is to skin off the newbies to the scene....and then and thats what takes so long right now...who is allowed to run off with which percentage of the stolen funds!?

There won´t be any bitcoincommunity left, if BCST is not closed in a transparent way, where the " buiiseness model " is disclosed and common sense applied in the

aftermaths !!

There is no one fell swoop of payment coming.......so what is the payout order???

The stance in the justness of this technality  seperates the criminals from the patsys and the victims!

May some discussion begin....in community spirit where common christian values are applied.

Thanks for listening

Cheers Zyk

P.S.  Bitcoin should be managed as the new world reserve currency ponzi....not as a mining pool chain letter

You should post more, bitsire.

No need to spell it out for me - I totally see your point and understand the symbolism. Pirate is like my captor, but instead of taking me against my will I voluntarily walked into his house (ignoring the fact that there was a cube van with a heart shaped window parked out front). Next, instead of tying me up and bum blasting me in the basement, he showered me with cash and told me that I was free to go at any time. However, being the greedy piggy that I am, I stayed until he finally ran out of bills. Now I'm sitting in his living room waiting for him to get back from the bank. Before he left he told me where he was going and how long it would take, but even though he calls every now and then to let me know he's on his way home, deep down I realize he's on a flight to the Lady Boy Palace in Thailand and ain't never coming back.

You are intellectually lazy, bitsire. Is it that difficult to make a connection from  people being held hostage to people's money being held hostage? Do I really need to explain you the obvious?

I just spit my drink.

Vladimir, thank you very much for the link sir - I am ashamed by my ignorance. Here I was thinking that the Stockholm Syndrome referred to when a hostage begins to look kindly upon their captor, but you have taught me that it can also refer to when one has faith and trust in an individual who graciously allowed them to share in their business venture and made them fistfuls of cash in the process.

Pussy Riot will surely sing tales of your mystical Russian wisdom upon their release from the gulag!

Hmm, seems like you and me have very different definitions of the term "robbing you blindly". I did not realize that when one willingly speculates on an investment and knowingly takes on a RISK in hopes of a REWARD that they are being robbed. I guess that would make Pirate a sort of confused Robin Hood who robbed from himself to pay out 7% interest to foolish investors such as myself.

Many who have been invested with Pirate for a while now have already made back far more than they put in. Next time you go to school, make sure you get on the short bus because the wittier kids on the regular bus are simply confusing you.

nobody knows exactly how much temptation except pirate 

I highly recommend this lecture:

"The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Understand the Exponential function."
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=6A1FD147A45EF50D

Its old and poor quality and begins with things you will think are trivial and utterly obvious, but watch it entirely. Its quite an eye opener.

Funniest sh*t I've read in a while. 

Classic! I must quote this too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome

 

1)  I voted that he will not pay back because he is running an obvious Ponzi scam slightly updated to use BTC.  Pirate's object was to put many bitcoins into a wallet he controls, and he has done that.  He does not care about you or your lost BTC or your feelings or family.  It takes a real hard core scumbag to run a Ponzi.  This is literally a 100 yr old scam executed almost to the letter. 

2)  It is amazing how long some of the marks are holding on to hope that he pays this community the $1M+ USD he scammed from them.  It will be interesting to see which ones hold on longest. 

My biggest fear is not whether or not Pirate will eventually pay back the coins - it's that once he does, the FUD will still continue to the point where nobody will want to bother taking deposits anymore.

Yes that is his job to make you feel good to keep you happy while robbing you blindly. But I have yet to be proven otherwise.

Time is a ticking....

If you're gonna shit on this thread, that's fine. Just don't do it twice.

+1

The turn of events in the forum is quite sad. I hope that when Pirate pays everyone back we can all forget about this, and move on to more happy discussions (and stop accusing without proof, like Mathew said).

The PPTs are now also essentially bets if pirate will pay back or not.

On Goat's, 1 bond currently trades for around 0.85 BTC (bouncing up from a previous 0.5 BTC). Very pro-pirate mood. 

So bond holders still can get their coins back now, without much loss. It's not usual to get this opportunity in the "end game" of an alleged ponzi scheme I guess.

Is this always true? What if the market was overbought, or due for a correction/crash? In such a situation it would be reasonable to expect that a smaller amount of BTC would be needed to trigger the crash and you would likely be able to cover the sale without bringing the price back to the original. The key is knowing when the market is in such a condition. Now according to the economists and their Efficient Market Hypothesis it is not possible for any one market participant to have an information edge in determining this type of condition. In practice many successful traders will tell you this is not true - especially the liquidity-provider type traders who are in the market 100% of the time.

Edit: to make some use of my stupid nick Google the following for a couple of examples where the George Soros made a killing shorting at the right time and destroyed economies in the process:

   - soros shorts pound 1992
   - soros shorts bhat 1997

+1

It doesnt work that way. Sure, if you have 500K btc you can crash the price, easily. But you can not buy back 500K btc later without sending the price in to the stratosphere.

Millions (in USD) did just go up in smoke.
lol., And mirrors.

By now pirate has at least half again as many coins as he'd borrowed - he's made a killing in BTC taking a serious short position while locking up gobs of coin (slick manuever)

Seems that after such a serious act of piracy, to steal our coins would just be plain greedy.

And foolish.

I asked a wise friend his opinion when I mentioned the name "pirate@40" - and my friend suggested "coyote@40" is more like it.

This would be a coyote move if I ever saw one.

"I will pay you gobs for your coin...how about..say 7%?! KEWL. OMG, the price rose a lot, I can only pay 5%!! What?!?! You wantz ur moniez back?! ORLY? Sooo many of u? I Fold! Can't keep up! I haz ur munneh, But you gotta wait a sec, They're all invested and it'll take me a minute to ......Sell all your BTCs!! (and buy twice as many back!) mwahaha....  Now. Here's your coin back (at 2/3 the USD value) - and BTW, I have as many coins as all y'all now. Thank's for financing it, hope you feel 7% was worth it. Suckers!!!"

It's the subtle difference between being bitch slapped into next week, and having the shit kicked out of you.

But, hats off to pirate - if he returns the money. Very well executed.

If he doesn't return the money, I hope he haz internetz on the space ship so he can spend his coin.  He'd be crazy to hide on earth.

Oh sorry,,, Tomorrow is Monday I am excited to see what happens..... I think he must be boarding a plane as we speak to go somewhere away from here

Its not monday for pirate yet.

smoke moar

Have people started to receive their money?

The accusations made it to the press. Retractions will need to be made, wether the press wants it or not.

I dont have one; and no one so far has formulated a credible one. But whatever it is or is not,  certainly wouldnt have to involve "psyops to descredit bitcoin".

I do know that if it turns out to be a ponzi where millions of dollars go up in smoke, that will make the press and do infinitely more damage to bitcoins reputation than some forums posts warning about a ponzi that turned out not to be one..

I don't know how you guys feel about betting, but for those of you who really think he's full of shit, then this should be easy money for you: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/im-giving-100-roi-away-to-anyone-who-thinks-pirate-is-a-fraud-101751

LOL, so when I get my BTC back next week what will be your theory then - a ponzi that made people money, paid everyone back and then closed? I guess all the new posters that sprouted up over the last two months to warn people about the dangers of Bitcoin lending must be doing so out of the goodness of their hearts? It's not like the FBI, the Brazilian and now Australian authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about Bitcoin or anything.

I read about a precious metals forum a while back that researched their server logs and discovered that a lot of the shill posts discrediting investing in metals were coming from the same IP address, which just happened to belong to a large US bank. So if you think it is not believable for a government or institution to pay people to go on forums to discredit things that aren't in their interests then you are quite naive.

Probably belongs in "service discussion"

Lol?
So you think its more likely the "psyops" would consist of  people warning of the danger that  some semi anonymous guy with an inexplicable  business model paying >3000% interest per year on a sum thats in the millions of dollars is likely a ponzi?  How on earth does that discredit bitcoin ? If you are going to be delusionally paranoid that a psyops is somehow involved to "discredit bitcoin",  wouldnt it  make 100x more sense to actually set up a large scale ponzi?

Personally I feel that Pirate will pay back every last BTC. I just joined the forum back in April and it seemed that everyone was one big happy family at first and then all of a sudden the FUD against Pirate absolutely exploded to the point where it seems people are spending their entire day on this forum warning others about the dangers of the "Pirate Ponzi". Think about it - why are people devoting so much of their time and energy worrying about other people's money for absolutely nothing in return? The only explanation I can think of is that this is some sort of psyops that was put into action to try to discredit Bitcoin and contain its rise.

I am very curious to see what happens after all of this..........

Yes, actually we saw the first part. He dumped a lot on the market, probably to take USD profit and to lower the price of bitcoin. Now he will slowly buy back some coins to repay his lendors.
Now I expect that most of the lendors will, as soon as they receive their coins back, returned them on MTGOX to panick sell them... right to Pirate, who will buy them again to repay others lendors.
If Pirate is good (and I think he is) then that will be one hell of a dump (we're probably talking of several hundreds of thousands of coins) that will be sold in panick.

So time for cheap coins is coming (that actually the only good news I see in this story). After that, how will bitcoin recover, I don't know, but its outlook sure looks better than a year ago so I'm still confident in its long term future. Lots of exciting things coming!

In bitcoin repayment (not fiat).....he will never return ALL of the bitcoins from his investors.

 

Gauging public opinion here.

Mods, this may belong in Speculation but I'm not sure. I think it works here.

If you wish, tell us why you voted.