Author

Topic: Poll - Is the market being manipulated? (Read 2611 times)

newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 20, 2013, 06:22:56 AM
#37
is someone else experiencing problems reaching bitstamp? It just keeps loading forever or a page of incapsula something appears?
newbie
Activity: 55
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 02:47:09 PM
#36
A healthy basis atm would be 250 but hey...
What is "healthy basis atm"? And why would that be 250? Also - 250 of what?
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 12:59:47 PM
#35
the market isnt being manipulated, you are.
well if it makes you happy and if this is your best argument. I will not let you down, yes I am  Grin.

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1038
Trusted Bitcoiner
November 18, 2013, 12:48:09 PM
#34
When this will crash, it's possible that the Chinese communist party to decide to ban bitcoin use in China,
if they find out the bubble was a 'conspiracy', that could be very bad for bitcoin.

this is wrong

China is known for crazy volatile markets, they are use to this kind of thing.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1038
Trusted Bitcoiner
November 18, 2013, 12:47:08 PM
#33
the market isnt being manipulated, you are.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
November 18, 2013, 12:45:57 PM
#32
When this will crash, it's possible that the Chinese communist party to decide to ban bitcoin use in China,
if they find out the bubble was a 'conspiracy', that could be very bad for bitcoin.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 12:37:02 PM
#31
Maybe china are just trying to buy out bitcoin to use as a sovereign currency!
they can use btc's technology with some tweaks which would be easier, as BTC's nature does not allow centralization atm
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1003
November 18, 2013, 12:28:42 PM
#30
Maybe china are just trying to buy out bitcoin to use as a sovereign currency!
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 12:26:37 PM
#29
It is not about caring but trading informed. Would you buy your btc @500, if you estimate there are good chances it will drop to 200. Just use your imagination and think of all the profit making possibilities, if we only knew Smiley

I fail to understand what you just said. Btw - btc is just $600 so if you have bought for 500 you would have made 20% profit. Sure it could have fallen down to 200, or to 0 for that matter. Or grown up to 1000. I don't really understand what is supposed to be the basis for BTC evaluation.

That was just an example to make clear the better informed you are, the better decisions you can make.

A healthy basis atm would be 250 but hey...who am I to tell? So, read the forums and make your decision. The stand here is 49 yes to 23 no
newbie
Activity: 55
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 12:17:12 PM
#28
It is not about caring but trading informed. Would you buy your btc @500, if you estimate there are good chances it will drop to 200. Just use your imagination and think of all the profit making possibilities, if we only knew Smiley

I fail to understand what you just said. Btw - btc is just $600 so if you have bought for 500 you would have made 20% profit. Sure it could have fallen down to 200, or to 0 for that matter. Or grown up to 1000. I don't really understand what is supposed to be the basis for BTC evaluation.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
November 18, 2013, 12:02:47 PM
#27
Beware the return of.........


The Manipulator

Muhahahahahhahahhahaha!

How I miss the manipulator threads! Nostalgia  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
November 18, 2013, 11:52:53 AM
#26
I believe the Chinese market is manipulated, and the purpose is to exchange massive amounts of CNY to USD via BTC,
and also make a huge profit in the process. Bitstamp could be the most affected, because cashing out of Gox is still a problem.
That could explain why the price on Bitstamp is so much lower than Gox, and it might go even lower.
legendary
Activity: 2101
Merit: 1061
November 18, 2013, 10:20:47 AM
#25
I think bitcoins is the closest thing there is to a free market today. This is because there are no significant bitcoin derivatives yet. In silver for example the price of physical metal is diluted a hundred times by paper derivatives traded in the futures markets and ETFs.  Only manipulation possible in bitcoins is to pump the price up then dump the price down which increases volatility but doesn't supress the price.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
November 18, 2013, 08:32:24 AM
#24
All markets are always being manipulated by somebody.  To think otherwise is naivete.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 08:03:40 AM
#23

I only see BTC is rising but not an explanation why it is rising...

It's being manipulated by the press.

Really? Smiley Seriously, why do you think so?

I can't tell if your joking but basically the press says, "Everyone is buying bitcoin" so people out and buy bitcoin and then the press says, "everyone is REALLY buying bitcoin now!" and even more people run out to buy bitcoin. It's all well and lovely except for when it goes south, if only by a couple dollars and they start saying "everyone is selling bitcoin!" and well you know, rinse wash repeat.

I was serious. This assumption cannot be derived from the charts I posted with the poll
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
November 18, 2013, 07:58:10 AM
#22
It's being manipulated by the press.

Really? Smiley Seriously, why do you think so?

I can't tell if your joking but basically the press says, "Everyone is buying bitcoin" so people out and buy bitcoin and then the press says, "everyone is REALLY buying bitcoin now!" and even more people run out to buy bitcoin. It's all well and lovely except for when it goes south, if only by a couple dollars and they start saying "everyone is selling bitcoin!" and well you know, rinse wash repeat.
member
Activity: 83
Merit: 10
November 18, 2013, 07:57:31 AM
#21
It's being manipulated by the press.

Really? Smiley Seriously, why do you think so?

Again, depends on who you count as the press. If you count Max Keiser as press, then I think it would be silly to assume he didn't buy any LTC before mentioning it in his twitter feed this morning knocking LTC up 50% against the $.

newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 07:56:55 AM
#20
It depends what you define as manipulated:

If I sell one BTC, that price changes. Have I manipulated the markets?

If someone does the same with 1000BTC, is that manipulating the markets?

What if a whale dumps to cause mini panic sell so they can buy back a few % cheaper? Is that manipulation?

If yes to any of the above, then yes, by your definition, market is being manipulated.

If you mean the exchanges are fiddling the numbers, then I doubt it, purely because there's that many exchanges, it would have to be done on all of them.


Regarding your original point 1 & 2, to me, that's just a bubble or hype: price rising rapidly with not much to back it up. The bigger this effect becomes, the more people spot it, the more the confidence in the overinflated price drops, the closer to the pop.

All are some forms of manipulation. It depends on your possession and the liquidity on the market. If you have 1 BTC on a market with 2 BTC liquidity, yes you can manipulate the market and finally you will because you are doing this for profit. 

I do not believe either exchanges are fiddling the numbers. However what could be possible is that miners are intuitively holding back to ROI

Then what's the point of the poll?  Huh

Obviously some of this stuff is going on. It's just a matter of how much effect it has on the price. I don't think we've seen any real effective manipulators yet on this rally. It's just bubble mentality.

You'll discover it all by yourself if you read on..Smiley

It could be a bubble but a bubble is rather slumbering. Here it is quite obvious or may be it is just paranoia Smiley
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 100
November 18, 2013, 07:56:31 AM
#19
The Chinese totally drive the price up

newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 07:49:13 AM
#18
It's being manipulated by the press.

Really? Smiley Seriously, why do you think so?
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
November 18, 2013, 07:40:08 AM
#17
It's being manipulated by the press.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
ancap
November 18, 2013, 07:35:07 AM
#16
I will sell 99% of my coins @4500$ and wait to buy back @1200$
Excellent plan.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 07:16:31 AM
#15
Quote
They also changed the leverage of 10:1 to 2:1 and increase the margin and they increased the comission to 8$ per bitcoin traded! Shocked

I've just seen in a different thread that Plus500 changed the leverage ratio to 1:1. Why would they have done that ??
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
November 18, 2013, 06:54:56 AM
#14
Regarding the chart with transaction-count: Look at the chart that excludes the 100 most popular addresses. This removes gambling stuff like SatoshiDice and focuses more on actual transactions. That chart is showing a consistent growth.

That consistent growth , can it explain a 100x price?. With just an average of 60k from 30k total transactions , it's clear that not adoption or usage is driving the price up.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 06:51:52 AM
#13
It depends what you define as manipulated:

If I sell one BTC, that price changes. Have I manipulated the markets?

If someone does the same with 1000BTC, is that manipulating the markets?

What if a whale dumps to cause mini panic sell so they can buy back a few % cheaper? Is that manipulation?

If yes to any of the above, then yes, by your definition, market is being manipulated.

If you mean the exchanges are fiddling the numbers, then I doubt it, purely because there's that many exchanges, it would have to be done on all of them.


Regarding your original point 1 & 2, to me, that's just a bubble or hype: price rising rapidly with not much to back it up. The bigger this effect becomes, the more people spot it, the more the confidence in the overinflated price drops, the closer to the pop.

All are some forms of manipulation. It depends on your possession and the liquidity on the market. If you have 1 BTC on a market with 2 BTC liquidity, yes you can manipulate the market and finally you will because you are doing this for profit. 

I do not believe either exchanges are fiddling the numbers. However what could be possible is that miners are intuitively holding back to ROI
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 06:40:11 AM
#12
Also, a point with the transaction volume - yeah, the level is staying pretty much consistent with april, but bear in mind that the dollar value per BTC is much higher than before - so one needs to move less bitcoins for a far greater "actual value" dollar transfer. So you would not necessarily expect this to grow significantly, if the price is also rising at such a rate.

yes but this could be explained by the readiness of people, still willing to buy at all cost. So, not necessarily meaning a lot of new people came in to buy.
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 100
November 18, 2013, 06:36:41 AM
#11
manipulation, mainstream media attention, greed, chinese enthusiasm...

When something is rare, the Chinese are crazy and can spend much money, the bubble can still grow.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-buyer-spends-177000-to-win-rare-barrel-of-burgundy-at-wine-auction-2013-11
member
Activity: 83
Merit: 10
November 18, 2013, 06:25:02 AM
#10
It depends what you define as manipulated:

If I sell one BTC, that price changes. Have I manipulated the markets?

If someone does the same with 1000BTC, is that manipulating the markets?

What if a whale dumps to cause mini panic sell so they can buy back a few % cheaper? Is that manipulation?

If yes to any of the above, then yes, by your definition, market is being manipulated.

If you mean the exchanges are fiddling the numbers, then I doubt it, purely because there's that many exchanges, it would have to be done on all of them.


Regarding your original point 1 & 2, to me, that's just a bubble or hype: price rising rapidly with not much to back it up. The bigger this effect becomes, the more people spot it, the more the confidence in the overinflated price drops, the closer to the pop.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 06:19:38 AM
#9
Regarding the chart with transaction-count: Look at the chart that excludes the 100 most popular addresses. This removes gambling stuff like SatoshiDice and focuses more on actual transactions. That chart is showing a consistent growth.

Even there the growth cannot be labeled consistent, there is a shift from November on
member
Activity: 104
Merit: 10
November 18, 2013, 06:18:09 AM
#8
Also, a point with the transaction volume - yeah, the level is staying pretty much consistent with april, but bear in mind that the dollar value per BTC is much higher than before - so one needs to move less bitcoins for a far greater "actual value" dollar transfer. So you would not necessarily expect this to grow significantly, if the price is also rising at such a rate.
hero member
Activity: 809
Merit: 501
Always verify deals with me through my public key!
November 18, 2013, 06:17:11 AM
#7
Beware the return of.........







































The Manipulator




Muhahahahahhahahhahaha!
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
November 18, 2013, 05:59:44 AM
#6
Since alot of people want in and want to make it big bitcoin has become a shark frenzy.
The only real question is will it ever crash and burn.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
November 18, 2013, 05:57:57 AM
#5
I will sell 99% of my coins @4500$ and wait to buy back @1200$
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
November 18, 2013, 05:56:05 AM
#4
Regarding the chart with transaction-count: Look at the chart that excludes the 100 most popular addresses. This removes gambling stuff like SatoshiDice and focuses more on actual transactions. That chart is showing a consistent growth.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 05:52:01 AM
#3
probably it is, but then again, who cares?

ooo, you are a newbie, that explains it.  Smiley

welcome to bitcoin.

yep, I am but not new to trading Smiley

It is not about caring but trading informed. Would you buy your btc @500, if you estimate there are good chances it will drop to 200. Just use your imagination and think of all the profit making possibilities, if we only knew Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1011
November 18, 2013, 05:46:10 AM
#2
probably it is, but then again, who cares?

ooo, you are a newbie, that explains it.  Smiley

welcome to bitcoin.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 18, 2013, 05:45:04 AM
#1
The question is straight forward. My opinion is that the value is artificially pumped, my arguments:

1.   A general sentiment for a crash/correction is telling us the value is generally accepted to be risen too sharply;
2.   The rise in demand in China is given as an explanation for the sharp appreciation. The chart below shows there is no significant change in transactions nor in volume (in BTC), compared with the peaks in April.
3.   Miners (mainly the supply side) got their heavy and expensive equipment in October, November and are trying to ROI .


estimated transaction volume:
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume

number of transactions per day:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

mining operating margin
http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin
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