[POLL] MtGox distribution, early payment or full payment?

OgNasty

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Quote from: adaseb on April 06, 2023, 03:04:39 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on April 06, 2023, 12:54:08 PM

Quote from: adaseb on April 05, 2023, 11:37:18 PM

Yes getting half back would be good however it matters when. There is a difference of taking 33% back today OR getting 50% back in 10 years. Which would you pick?

Also the longer the trial goes on for the more money will get sucked out from the creditors. Lawyers are expensive and they always work slow in cases like this.

My guess is that it’s probably closer to 16% of your BTC at the end of the year or 25% of your BTC 2 years from now. Nobody is going to be getting 50% back ever. I’m not sure where this number comes from, but it doesn’t come from anybody with any knowledge of the situation. The lawyers will definitely have eaten a massive amount of the potential distribution. Makes you wonder if mtgox could have become solvent playing games with custom funds longer to try and profit themselves out of insolvency like Gemini is trying to do now.

Well there is hope if Solana becomes popular again. I think they hold like 10% of the entire market cap of Solana. Since its still trading at $20 there is hope it can make its way into the $50-$100 range. If we get into the $100 range then this would be their largest holding valued at $4B.

The rest of the tokens like SRM or FTX I dont think they will be worth much. Even if they start to liquidate them, the price will go down because the supply is just too large. However Solana in a strong bull market might be possible to liquidate all their holdings if done slowly.

Then we might see 50 cents on the dollar. But who knows.

I don’t know what you’re talking about. This thread is about mtgox and Solana didn’t exist when it closed so they certainly don’t own any. I assume this comment was about my comment mentioning Gemini’s current insolvency games as an attempt to avoid being the next mtgox…

Anyway, a new letter went out from mtgox. They’re expecting payments to be made before October 31st, 2023.

adaseb

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Quote from: OgNasty on April 06, 2023, 12:54:08 PM

Quote from: adaseb on April 05, 2023, 11:37:18 PM

Yes getting half back would be good however it matters when. There is a difference of taking 33% back today OR getting 50% back in 10 years. Which would you pick?

Also the longer the trial goes on for the more money will get sucked out from the creditors. Lawyers are expensive and they always work slow in cases like this.

My guess is that it’s probably closer to 16% of your BTC at the end of the year or 25% of your BTC 2 years from now. Nobody is going to be getting 50% back ever. I’m not sure where this number comes from, but it doesn’t come from anybody with any knowledge of the situation. The lawyers will definitely have eaten a massive amount of the potential distribution. Makes you wonder if mtgox could have become solvent playing games with custom funds longer to try and profit themselves out of insolvency like Gemini is trying to do now.

Well there is hope if Solana becomes popular again. I think they hold like 10% of the entire market cap of Solana. Since its still trading at $20 there is hope it can make its way into the $50-$100 range. If we get into the $100 range then this would be their largest holding valued at $4B.

The rest of the tokens like SRM or FTX I dont think they will be worth much. Even if they start to liquidate them, the price will go down because the supply is just too large. However Solana in a strong bull market might be possible to liquidate all their holdings if done slowly.

Then we might see 50 cents on the dollar. But who knows.

OgNasty

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Quote from: adaseb on April 05, 2023, 11:37:18 PM

Yes getting half back would be good however it matters when. There is a difference of taking 33% back today OR getting 50% back in 10 years. Which would you pick?

Also the longer the trial goes on for the more money will get sucked out from the creditors. Lawyers are expensive and they always work slow in cases like this.

My guess is that it’s probably closer to 16% of your BTC at the end of the year or 25% of your BTC 2 years from now. Nobody is going to be getting 50% back ever. I’m not sure where this number comes from, but it doesn’t come from anybody with any knowledge of the situation. The lawyers will definitely have eaten a massive amount of the potential distribution. Makes you wonder if mtgox could have become solvent playing games with custom funds longer to try and profit themselves out of insolvency like Gemini is trying to do now.

adaseb

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Yes getting half back would be good however it matters when. There is a difference of taking 33% back today OR getting 50% back in 10 years. Which would you pick?

Also the longer the trial goes on for the more money will get sucked out from the creditors. Lawyers are expensive and they always work slow in cases like this.

fullhdpixel

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Quote from: adaseb on April 04, 2023, 12:25:43 AM

Here is the largest difference between MtGox and FTX. When MtGox went down many held BTC. When FTX went down most of the largest holdings were stablecoins. Stablecoin will never increase in value only devalue due to inflation.

BTC was like $700 when MtGox shutdown and peaked 100x higher. It won’t happen to stablecoins.

So imagine having $1000 on FTX. And getting half of it back in 10 years when inflation ate away another 25% of your money. That $1000 becomes more like $325 or so.

I guess that is because there is no stable coins yet during the era of Mt.Gox and the most popular coin back in time was only Bitcoin so it's no brainer that many people will invest on it. During the FTX collapse, stable coins are already hot. People use this mainly to safeguard some of their crypto profits and do other things. No wonder why many people are using it. The only bad side of using it is like you said, it is affected by the inflation and its value will only decline in the long run.

Getting half is better but that is if FTX will repay its investors. Mt.Gox on the other hand is doing a great job there because they are now crediting the lost BTC of their customers. As for the OP's poll, I think I will go for an early re-payment because I urgently need the money.

adaseb

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Here is the largest difference between MtGox and FTX. When MtGox went down many held BTC. When FTX went down most of the largest holdings were stablecoins. Stablecoin will never increase in value only devalue due to inflation.

BTC was like $700 when MtGox shutdown and peaked 100x higher. It won’t happen to stablecoins.

So imagine having $1000 on FTX. And getting half of it back in 10 years when inflation ate away another 25% of your money. That $1000 becomes more like $325 or so.

Hamphser

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Quote from: OgNasty on March 28, 2023, 05:45:14 PM

With the mtgox distribution constantly being pushed back, it’s possible they aren’t getting enough people registering for payment distributions to meet their expectations. This leads me to believe the final BTC payout if you wait could be much higher than the early lump sum payout. Would you wait and try to get the most BTC possible or select early payout to get this behind you?

Better to get it as much as possible because you dont know on what issues would be thrown up next which would be in resulting into some possible delay once again which would might take for years and if ever
it would come to worst it wouldnt really be released out in the end.This is why if ever there's a chance or opportunity on which you could really be able to get your coins back whether it would be on Bitcoin
or fiat form then i would definitely be longing on recieving those as much as soon as possible.There's no way for me to have those second thoughts on holding and waiting out further.
Once that claim button is clear up then i would be having no doubt on getting neither partial or much better if it would be in full.

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: adaseb on March 30, 2023, 12:56:17 AM

I remember back in 2016 or so people took basically something like $700 or $900 for their BTC by selling their claims. Years later seemed like a horrible deal but they technically got back what they lost in fiat terms and didn’t have to wait a decade.

Wonder when the FTX creditors will get their money. Seems it’s a larger mess than MtGox and it’ll probably be 5-10 years.

Wasnt really that familiar on how funds been stole out on Mt.Gox on which it was able to have this kind of chance for its users to get it back on what they have lost.If this is also can be seen on FTX then for sure
those people who had been affected would be expecting something like this on what happened on Gox to but of course everything would really still remain speculative and presumption.
Regarding on the question if ever have the chance on getting your coins or payment back then i would definitely be going after on something as soon as possible or if ever its possible on doing so.
Its yours and you do have the right and it is really that a very long time before it do reached up into this state.

OgNasty

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 29, 2023, 02:28:24 PM

I heard 50 cents on the dollar up to 10000 in coin.

So if you lost 10,000 you get 5,000
if you lost 9,000 you get 4,500
if you lost 6,000 you get 3,000

but if you lost 11,000 you get only 5000

if you lost 20,000 you get only 5,000

so if i had any in there under 11,000 I think I would cash out.

and if I were over 20,000 I would not cash out.

The gray area is 11,000-20,000

Nah, we aren’t getting that much back. It’s closer to 15% of your BTC back. I wish it were 50%, but that isn’t going to happen. Even at a 15% return rate, it’s still a significantly higher USD amount than was lost so it’s hard to be too upset about it. I probably would’ve spent the money on silver or god knows what else over the last 10 years, so it’s a bit of a bittersweet return of funds. Not sure where you heard that 50% number, but it’s wildly incorrect.

adaseb

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I remember back in 2016 or so people took basically something like $700 or $900 for their BTC by selling their claims. Years later seemed like a horrible deal but they technically got back what they lost in fiat terms and didn’t have to wait a decade.

Wonder when the FTX creditors will get their money. Seems it’s a larger mess than MtGox and it’ll probably be 5-10 years.

philipma1957

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I heard 50 cents on the dollar up to 10000 in coin.

So if you lost 10,000 you get 5,000
if you lost 9,000 you get 4,500
if you lost 6,000 you get 3,000

but if you lost 11,000 you get only 5000

if you lost 20,000 you get only 5,000

so if i had any in there under 11,000 I think I would cash out.

and if I were over 20,000 I would not cash out.

The gray area is 11,000-20,000

LFC_Bitcoin

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Quote from: OgNasty on March 28, 2023, 05:45:14 PM

This leads me to believe the final BTC payout if you wait could be much higher than the early lump sum payout.

I’m not a creditor (luckily for me) but thought I’d just add an opinion. You guys have waited so long now that a little longer won’t be too bad and if you get more by waiting then why not.

livingfree

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With all of these issues and delays, I'll take the early lump sum as much as possible. The pressure and stress that this distribution is giving is certainly a lot for those who have been waiting for it.

But well, that's just me and I'm not part of this distribution.

Thos eligible for their refund are probably feeling drained out already with this so IMHO, they just want to take anything as soon as possible.

dragonvslinux

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Personally I would like to think I would have taken the opportunity around $50K to sell the repayments at a discount to the institutions buying it up around that time. Then at least could buying 2x more Bitcoin once the bear market arrived. For sure the early payment (especially sold at a discount) wouldn't be as much as the full payment, but unless the latter is twice as much, selling around $50K would have been ideal!

Yamane_Keto

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Quote from: OgNasty on March 28, 2023, 05:45:14 PM

With the mtgox distribution constantly being pushed back, it’s possible they aren’t getting enough people registering for payment distributions to meet their expectations. This leads me to believe the final BTC payout if you wait could be much higher than the early lump sum payout. Would you wait and try to get the most BTC possible or select early payout to get this behind you?

You will not get a clear answer to this question, and some may choose to get cash now and have logical reasons such as:

Investment in Bitcoin was purely serendipitous.
Does not believe in the future value of Bitcoin.
Doubts that he will get anything in the future.
Changes may occur in the future that make waiting a long time.
Needs cash now.
Buys Bitcoin at the current price and invests it instead of waiting for a long time (a bird in the hand, not 10 in the tree)
Doesn't like stress or being in a long process.

you will get many logical reasons form the same person, given that the reasons above may differ from one person to another, and we cannot blame someone for choosing one of these things.

Fundamentals Of

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I am not waiting for Mt. Gox funds but I have already heard many rumors and read news of the refund. But until now there is no refund happening. There have been numerous FUDs on this over the years and yet there never was a dump happening because there was no refund that happened in the first place. The latest that I heard was that the refund will finally take place within March. March is almost over and nothing's happening yet. But there was also news that it will be moved to July to September.

I think I will choose early payout.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: OgNasty on March 28, 2023, 05:45:14 PM

With the mtgox distribution constantly being pushed back, it’s possible they aren’t getting enough people registering for payment distributions to meet their expectations. This leads me to believe the final BTC payout if you wait could be much higher than the early lump sum payout. Would you wait and try to get the most BTC possible or select early payout to get this behind you?

The earlier the better on which you could assure that those coins would be on your own hands rather than into theirs.Whenever the price do make out some increase then you are that confident that you are
making that money on your own and not into those people or org who had been holding those MT.GOx funds. Early repayment would be the best choice anytime of the day.
Despite of the allocation which it is really been halved with fiat and your btc of the rest then i would really be preferring whichever comes first.
What matter most is that you do get a hold of those which you do owned.

armanda90

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I am not believing yet with MTGox refund payment due this issues have been talking for longer time, last year have rumor about MtGox will refund but until exact date not distribution yet for all their member. Report from coingeek there are not have official announcement will refund as soon possible and how kinds distribution or full or half for the member, but based on I read not clearly news for distributing or refunding member Bitcoin fund.

You can check on Coingeek as new update in this month but there are not happy information for the member still have bigger hope for get refund their Bitcoin, after collapse nine years ago, MtGox still not find good way how to refund Bitcoin to their member or the only issues refund update to make their member keep believing with MtGox.

https://coingeek.com/mt-gox-repayments-to-start-in-march-2023-nine-years-after-collapse/

OgNasty

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With the mtgox distribution constantly being pushed back, it’s possible they aren’t getting enough people registering for payment distributions to meet their expectations. This leads me to believe the final BTC payout if you wait could be much higher than the early lump sum payout. Would you wait and try to get the most BTC possible or select early payout to get this behind you?

Topic: [POLL] MtGox distribution, early payment or full payment? (Read 162 times)