i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable?especially end of december when remaining miners need dollars for power bills.
brag quote. (:
isn't it too early to brag? Price is still stable.
Topic: [poll] Price (Read 3880 times)
especially end of december when remaining miners need dollars for power bills.
brag quote. (:
isn't it too early to brag? Price is still stable.
i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable?especially end of december when remaining miners need dollars for power bills.
brag quote. (:
isn't it too early to brag? Price is still stable.
i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable?especially end of december when remaining miners need dollars for power bills.
brag quote. (:
Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply
Indeed, but bitcoin is a complete other currency and a completely different type of money supply. It's more like gold than cash, so the bitcoin supply increasing by 13% pa is a very different (and less malicious) scenario from a central bank printing up 13% more money every year.
why's it different? because we're expending money to make that bitcoin? [like gold mining]
Bitcoin can't be printed at a whim and given to the well connected like every other fiat currency. The inflation rate is known long term and fairly stable short term.
you mean predictability is the argument here why it matters less that bitcoin inflation is as high as a fiat currency
I think that's exactly what he means and I think it's true to an extent. If bitcoin inflation was predictable, but constant (and too high), that would be bad for bitcoin. So I'd say the fact that bitcoin inflation is predictable AND monotonously decreasing is the interesting point. The currently still very high inflation is less of a concern. In easy words: you know there won't be more than 21 million, that's what counts.
Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply
Indeed, but bitcoin is a complete other currency and a completely different type of money supply. It's more like gold than cash, so the bitcoin supply increasing by 13% pa is a very different (and less malicious) scenario from a central bank printing up 13% more money every year.
why's it different? because we're expending money to make that bitcoin? [like gold mining]
Bitcoin can't be printed at a whim and given to the well connected like every other fiat currency. The inflation rate is known long term and fairly stable short term.
you mean predictability is the argument here why it matters less that bitcoin inflation is as high as a fiat currency
Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply
Indeed, but bitcoin is a complete other currency and a completely different type of money supply. It's more like gold than cash, so the bitcoin supply increasing by 13% pa is a very different (and less malicious) scenario from a central bank printing up 13% more money every year.
why's it different? because we're expending money to make that bitcoin? [like gold mining]
Bitcoin can't be printed at a whim and given to the well connected like every other fiat currency. The inflation rate is known long term and fairly stable short term.
Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply
Indeed, but bitcoin is a complete other currency and a completely different type of money supply. It's more like gold than cash, so the bitcoin supply increasing by 13% pa is a very different (and less malicious) scenario from a central bank printing up 13% more money every year.
why's it different? because we're expending money to make that bitcoin? [like gold mining]
It's not the inflation per se that is Bitcoins advantage. It's the fact that the future inflation rate of the bitcoin money supply is completely known in advance and can be trusted to be executed as planned.
+1
Thanks molecular, this is really the crux of what I was getting at.
Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply
Indeed, but bitcoin is a complete other currency and a completely different type of money supply. It's more like gold than cash, so the bitcoin supply increasing by 13% pa is a very different (and less malicious) scenario from a central bank printing up 13% more money every year.
It's not the inflation per se that is Bitcoins advantage. It's the fact that the future inflation rate of the bitcoin money supply is completely known in advance and can be trusted to be executed as planned.
Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply
Indeed, but bitcoin is a complete other currency and a completely different type of money supply. It's more like gold than cash, so the bitcoin supply increasing by 13% pa is a very different (and less malicious) scenario from a central bank printing up 13% more money every year.
The "high inflation" of Bitcoin currently has one very important difference from inflation of legacy (fiat) monies. With fiat, the possible money supply is infinite (The Bernank has officially emphasized this point too - beware the FRN!) whereas with BTC we know the supply can't pass 21 million (2,1 quadrillion satoshi). The spot bitcoin inflation rate is falling and will continue to fall, and the market is fully exposed to this fact.
Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply
The "high inflation" of Bitcoin currently has one very important difference from inflation of legacy (fiat) monies. With fiat, the possible money supply is infinite (The Bernank has officially emphasized this point too - beware the FRN!) whereas with BTC we know the supply can't pass 21 million (2,1 quadrillion satoshi). The spot bitcoin inflation rate is falling and will continue to fall, and the market is fully exposed to this fact.
i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable?especially end of december when remaining miners need dollars for power bills.
As many of us predicted months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
I'm going to pat myself on the back for predicting the dump. We'll see if I'm correct about the next bull breakout run! But actually the dump was less then I expected. That is interesting... I wonder if people who intended to dump are still playing blockchain chicken? Seems to me that that game would be over now... that could be a very bullish signal as people who expected blockchain chicken have to get back into the market, or are willing to get in deeper now that that danger is over.
Also something else has occurred to me. Bitcoin has now moved from what was "officially" a hyper-inflationary currency to one that is merely high inflation (I've heard 12% on these forums but haven't bothered to do the math myself). 12% is in the ballpark of other (still viable) fiat currencies during certain historic periods (I'm thinking USD in the 70s). This psychological difference will probably have a much greater impact then from 6% to 3% (say), and should calm worries that a temporarily stagnant bitcoin economic growth cycle won't crash the currency.
There's got to be the odd guy who took out a huge loan to build a big GPU farm and can't switch to ASICs. I'm sure there will be a few people that will have to cut their losses.
I'm not sure what to do here, I don't want to see my hard earned bitcoins lose value. I usually don't think about future prices since I usually get rid of my bitcoins quiet quickly but I have quite a few now.
The way I see it if there is less bitcoins being mined the price should increase due to lower supply.
on the other hand won't a lot of miners sell all their savings if the reward halves as mining will no longer be profitable enough for them, they might see it as time to pull out of the whole bitcoin thing. So maybe there will be an initial fall in price followed by an increase in January .
The way I see it if there is less bitcoins being mined the price should increase due to lower supply.
on the other hand won't a lot of miners sell all their savings if the reward halves as mining will no longer be profitable enough for them, they might see it as time to pull out of the whole bitcoin thing. So maybe there will be an initial fall in price followed by an increase in January .
That makes no sense to me. When my income decreases I tighten my belt. I don't go blow all my savings the next day. But then again, maybe I take this bitcoin thing too seriously. However, I would think miners who might make such a move would not be the type to hold many BTC in the first place.
I'm not sure what to do here, I don't want to see my hard earned bitcoins lose value. I usually don't think about future prices since I usually get rid of my bitcoins quiet quickly but I have quite a few now.
The way I see it if there is less bitcoins being mined the price should increase due to lower supply.
on the other hand won't a lot of miners sell all their savings if the reward halves as mining will no longer be profitable enough for them, they might see it as time to pull out of the whole bitcoin thing. So maybe there will be an initial fall in price followed by an increase in January .
The way I see it if there is less bitcoins being mined the price should increase due to lower supply.
on the other hand won't a lot of miners sell all their savings if the reward halves as mining will no longer be profitable enough for them, they might see it as time to pull out of the whole bitcoin thing. So maybe there will be an initial fall in price followed by an increase in January .
and GPU miners won't die then
Read up on difficulty, man. Price and mining profits are independent variables unless people are being irrational.
I find mBTC easier to say, and I think re-pricing all online goods in milli-bitcoins is very forward thinking 
Personally I'd like to see it hit $100 then we'll price things in centi-BTC cBTC, and GPU miners won't die then.
wrong wrong
satoshi's
and they will die by january 21
Personally I'd like to see it hit $100 then we'll price things in centi-BTC cBTC, and GPU miners won't die then.
When/if it reaches those highs again, 30$ will be cut like butter.
My guess is it will reach a stable 30$ some time next year.
Either that or all the way to the moon
Either that or all the way to the moon
Remember the wisdom of the crowd
Remember the bias of the unrepresentative sample.
Not to the moon, just the stratosphere
there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that
The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol
I've never understood why people would phrase any question like that, unless it's that they see Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme and have no long term confidence.
Otherwise, you NEVER sell your BTC "at a certain future price." You hold onto them until you need to spend them. Why would there be a certain price you sold everything out at and moved to an inferior holding?
There's no "price" that would make me sell. Only a superior (proven) system to invest in.
well, "price" doesn't have to be in Dollar. I would sell a Bitcoin when prices reaches "1 nice house", for example.
We are going to the moon guys. The poll results are amazing.
maybe people don't know the future, though.
i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable?especially end of december when remaining miners need dollars for power bills.
Remember the wisdom of the crowd
there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that
The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol
I've never understood why people would phrase any question like that, unless it's that they see Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme and have no long term confidence.
Otherwise, you NEVER sell your BTC "at a certain future price." You hold onto them until you need to spend them. Why would there be a certain price you sold everything out at and moved to an inferior holding?
There's no "price" that would make me sell. Only a superior (proven) system to invest in.
If at any point I feel bitcoins are overpriced, I would sell them. And then buy them back later. ... Like if we hit $100 today, I would sell them knowing I could probably buy them back at around $50 within a few days...
there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that
The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol
I've never understood why people would phrase any question like that, unless it's that they see Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme and have no long term confidence.
Otherwise, you NEVER sell your BTC "at a certain future price." You hold onto them until you need to spend them. Why would there be a certain price you sold everything out at and moved to an inferior holding?
There's no "price" that would make me sell. Only a superior (proven) system to invest in.
What interesting times these are.
And if those people who usually mine the coin were not able to get enough coin after reward halving, they will buy coin instead of mine, this will also push the price up
What he said there.
To elaborate: If demand for BTC available for purchase remains the same but the supply available for sale drops by half (potentially more if any miners drop out due to the halving) then what happens to the price? Yes some people will stop purchasing as the price rises, at least for a little while, but others will not.
In my opinion the supply will drop enough that those selling will be able to ask for a greater price (and receive it). There are other factors but this goes back to the basic idea of supply and demand. If supply drops and demand remains, then the price will rise.
Thralen
Daily coin generation has almost nothing to do with price, since most of the miners just hoard the coins. It is the rising popularity give the support for price
And if those people who usually mine the coin were not able to get enough coin after reward halving, they will buy coin instead of mine, this will also push the price up
And if those people who usually mine the coin were not able to get enough coin after reward halving, they will buy coin instead of mine, this will also push the price up
there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that
The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol
one can be extremely bullish (to the moon) but the only thing one can do is sell so your sentiment is bullish but the action is bearish, the sell is based on fear and buy is based on greed and since fear of lose is a emotion 5 times stronger that greed bulls will take their profits and the sell will pushes the price slowly down, now if there is any risk event then the panic happen since ppl dont have a plan to enter exit a trade you get selloffs and the notion of risk reward ratio is not existent for most ppl and this will fuel the selloff
there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that
The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol
Any level iff I'm confident enough I'll be able to buy back in at a lower price sooner rather than later.
Otherwise, we're talking minimum triple figures per BTC in bankster-paper terms, I'd say.
there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that
The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol
there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that
Unless is one of those possible futures where...
Poll's results have always been a contrarian indicator.
Poll's results have always been a contrarian indicator.
We are going to the moon guys. The poll results are amazing.
i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable?
Yeah you're right about the numbers (6 per hour * 24 hours * 50btc)... I'm recovering from surgery and so typing and thinking :-) is hard. Its interesting that SR might occupy that much currency per day. But the currency can be reused so something else is going on to actually consume it. That something else is likely primarily long term investment (hoarding), but it really does not matter what it is; whatever it is, it has been a steady demand for 6 months or more and there is no socio-economic reason why that will change any time soon (other then grow) since the global economic situation remains on its current trajectory.
I think only 7200 are minted a day. 144*50.
If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.
If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.
i think halving day will be stable
But will December be stable? 
I think only 7200 are minted a day. 144*50.
If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.
If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.
$20 before new year 
i think halving day will be stable
As many of us predicted months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
+1
Up!
As many of us predicted months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...
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