Poll Week 14/13 Sentiment closed.
51 (43.2%) to 67 (56.8%) in favor of "no bubble".
Thanks for participating. Until next weekend.
Regards, NF414
Topic: [Poll] Week 14/13 Sentiment - Are we in a Bitcoin-Price-Bubble? [closed] (Read 2883 times)
April 01, 2013, 02:15:34 AM
March 31, 2013, 12:19:18 PM
That translates to less time spend by new comers considering if Bitcoin is a viable option as an investment before buying in.
So in some sense we have moved on not only in numbers but also in perception. The mental entry barrier is smaller this second time around.
Or it could simply mean the existing userbase is speculating at a higher rate than 2011 based on media attention. So in some sense we have moved on not only in numbers but also in perception. The mental entry barrier is smaller this second time around.
March 31, 2013, 03:31:48 AM
Peak interest?
Regards, NF414
Regards, NF414
Does the google graph scale probably? If the 2011 peak was 45% of the 100% we have now it only means a little more than a doubling.
If we correlate that with a price that now is 3-4 times higher than 2011, we are seeing people buying for 1.5-2 times as many Dollars per person as in 2011 around the peak!
That translates to less time spend by new comers considering if Bitcoin is a viable option as an investment before buying in.
So in some sense we have moved on not only in numbers but also in perception. The mental entry barrier is smaller this second time around.
March 31, 2013, 03:11:58 AM
March 30, 2013, 05:17:51 PM
I think this parabolic rise is a bubble which will keep going up a lot higher yet, but in the end yes will burst. That won't be the end of bicoins though, just like the last bubble, they will consolidate and start rising again.
March 30, 2013, 03:37:01 PM
If you can guarantee that pirate is dead, then I can guarantee that this is not a bubble. Note: this also applies to future 
March 30, 2013, 03:12:09 PM
How about somewhere in between? I voted "no" but I'd have picked 85% NO and 15% YES.
Anything over the fast exponential growth trendline since January starts to feel a little bubbly to me (the faster growth of the past few weeks feels a tad frothy), though I can also grant the possibility that we've upshifted to a higher exponent. There is no way to know, but the growth since January has been incredibly steady on a log chart, so it seems best to project that that growth will continue apace. That means the farther above that exponential trendline we float, the more bubbly it feels, the more it starts "cruising for a bruising" where any minor hiccup will send the price temporarily tumbling a we revert to the mean.
Note: This still makes me an uber-bull, expecting $1,000 by October - in line with the exponential trend.
Anything over the fast exponential growth trendline since January starts to feel a little bubbly to me (the faster growth of the past few weeks feels a tad frothy), though I can also grant the possibility that we've upshifted to a higher exponent. There is no way to know, but the growth since January has been incredibly steady on a log chart, so it seems best to project that that growth will continue apace. That means the farther above that exponential trendline we float, the more bubbly it feels, the more it starts "cruising for a bruising" where any minor hiccup will send the price temporarily tumbling a we revert to the mean.
Note: This still makes me an uber-bull, expecting $1,000 by October - in line with the exponential trend.
March 30, 2013, 03:03:08 PM
Yes, but a bubble that wont pop for less than another 1000% IMO
Is that really a bubble, though?
A good question to ask might be, when are we not in a bubble?
Was it at $2?
Was it at $0?
I don't know. The question seems weird to me when I think about it from that perspective.
What I do know is that I am absolutely against the principles and monopolization of our current fiat systems and want to support Bitcoin to promote competition.
So to me, maybe it isn't a bubble?
To me, maybe bubbles don't exist in Bitcoin.
Maybe it's a way out of the actual bubble, and into a reality we all want to exist.
Is that really a bubble, though?
A good question to ask might be, when are we not in a bubble?
Was it at $2?
Was it at $0?
I don't know. The question seems weird to me when I think about it from that perspective.
What I do know is that I am absolutely against the principles and monopolization of our current fiat systems and want to support Bitcoin to promote competition.
So to me, maybe it isn't a bubble?
To me, maybe bubbles don't exist in Bitcoin.
Maybe it's a way out of the actual bubble, and into a reality we all want to exist.
March 30, 2013, 02:43:51 PM
so the Apple Stock was a bubble too?
No, it wasn't. But it is now - with the death of Steve Jobs.
I give Apple stock about two years from Jobs' death - one full hardware cycle - and it will lose 60-70%.
Technically I suppose that isn't exactly a bubble - but still...
March 30, 2013, 02:22:54 PM
Interest about BTC is higher than ever according to Google trends and the forum itself......
The Regional interest here is also pretty interesting.
https://imageshack.us/a/img15/6176/27120824732c426cbd528d7.png
Regards, NF414
March 30, 2013, 12:22:00 PM
Interest about BTC is higher than ever according to Google trends and the forum itself......
I'd be more bearish about it if there was no rising interest and the price was just being manipulated.
Quote
Most Online Ever: 4824 (March 28, 2013, 09:20:50 PM)
I'd be more bearish about it if there was no rising interest and the price was just being manipulated.
March 30, 2013, 11:45:53 AM
...or being used as a store of value.
Which could be said is bordering on insanity. When I look for something to preserve value, one of the most important things I look at is stability (current and historical). Bitcoin has about 1 year of stability and 3 of instability. I would likely never take those odds, but definitely wouldn't if I couldn't afford to lose the value. People in Cyprus are looking for something more stable than their government; Bitcoin isn't that. 
March 30, 2013, 11:39:34 AM
I've traded other currency markets over the past 7 years, and this would certainly be a bubble in any classic currency pair. In fact, this just never happens in any other currency pair, unless one of the currencies is spiraling out of control. But in this case the currency that would be spiraling out of control would be the USD, and that is not happening (yet).
The difference is that BTC is not a fiat currency. It's not precious metal that's been around for thousands of years. It is a new idea. It has the essence of a revolution who's potential benefits are becoming realized at an increasingly rapid pace. I don't believe this is a bubble. I believe this is people waking up to a better vision of payment processing and alternative stores of value. This is likely still the beginning. I'm holding for the longest time.
The difference is that BTC is not a fiat currency. It's not precious metal that's been around for thousands of years. It is a new idea. It has the essence of a revolution who's potential benefits are becoming realized at an increasingly rapid pace. I don't believe this is a bubble. I believe this is people waking up to a better vision of payment processing and alternative stores of value. This is likely still the beginning. I'm holding for the longest time.
so the Apple Stock was a bubble too?
Indeed Bitcoin *is* more an asset than a currency, at least now; it's a share in a global value transfer system. Also it was born on the internet, and I guess you're familiar with the term "viral".
I specifically said bitcoin is not likely in a bubble, and that in an traditional currency market EUR/USD for example, this would be insanity, and signal the downfall of the weakening currency. This kind of action does happen with new companies that take off. Bitcoin is not a company though. It's hard to clearly define what to consider it, but the general consensus leans toward currency.
But you are absolutely right. Most of the money in the BTC / USD market is speculative or being used as a store of value. I think we are agreeing with different words.
March 30, 2013, 11:23:37 AM
I've traded other currency markets over the past 7 years, and this would certainly be a bubble in any classic currency pair. In fact, this just never happens in any other currency pair, unless one of the currencies is spiraling out of control. But in this case the currency that would be spiraling out of control would be the USD, and that is not happening (yet).
The difference is that BTC is not a fiat currency. It's not precious metal that's been around for thousands of years. It is a new idea. It has the essence of a revolution who's potential benefits are becoming realized at an increasingly rapid pace. I don't believe this is a bubble. I believe this is people waking up to a better vision of payment processing and alternative stores of value. This is likely still the beginning. I'm holding for the longest time.
The difference is that BTC is not a fiat currency. It's not precious metal that's been around for thousands of years. It is a new idea. It has the essence of a revolution who's potential benefits are becoming realized at an increasingly rapid pace. I don't believe this is a bubble. I believe this is people waking up to a better vision of payment processing and alternative stores of value. This is likely still the beginning. I'm holding for the longest time.
so the Apple Stock was a bubble too?
Indeed Bitcoin *is* more an asset than a currency, at least now; it's a share in a global value transfer system. Also it was born on the internet, and I guess you're familiar with the term "viral".
March 30, 2013, 10:33:56 AM
I've traded other currency markets over the past 7 years, and this would certainly be a bubble in any classic currency pair. In fact, this just never happens in any other currency pair, unless one of the currencies is spiraling out of control. But in this case the currency that would be spiraling out of control would be the USD, and that is not happening (yet).
The difference is that BTC is not a fiat currency. It's not precious metal that's been around for thousands of years. It is a new idea. It has the essence of a revolution who's potential benefits are becoming realized at an increasingly rapid pace. I don't believe this is a bubble. I believe this is people waking up to a better vision of payment processing and alternative stores of value. This is likely still the beginning. I'm holding for the longest time.
The difference is that BTC is not a fiat currency. It's not precious metal that's been around for thousands of years. It is a new idea. It has the essence of a revolution who's potential benefits are becoming realized at an increasingly rapid pace. I don't believe this is a bubble. I believe this is people waking up to a better vision of payment processing and alternative stores of value. This is likely still the beginning. I'm holding for the longest time.
March 30, 2013, 10:26:00 AM
where's the "somewhere inbetween" answer?
We currently may be indeed overvalued, i.e. above expected rate of growth, but that doesn't mean the value will ever go much lower than it is now. It may move sideways and consolidate for a while and then move upwards at a slower pace again.
We currently may be indeed overvalued, i.e. above expected rate of growth, but that doesn't mean the value will ever go much lower than it is now. It may move sideways and consolidate for a while and then move upwards at a slower pace again.
I purposely spared that one out, so people have to decide what they tend more to if they had to.
I would subordinate your answer in the "No"-Category, since you are not expecting a classic bubble-burst.Regards, NF414
March 30, 2013, 10:13:28 AM
where's the "somewhere inbetween" answer?
We currently may be indeed overvalued, i.e. above expected rate of growth, but that doesn't mean the value will ever go much lower than it is now. It may move sideways and consolidate for a while and then move upwards at a slower pace again.
We currently may be indeed overvalued, i.e. above expected rate of growth, but that doesn't mean the value will ever go much lower than it is now. It may move sideways and consolidate for a while and then move upwards at a slower pace again.
March 30, 2013, 07:46:53 AM
Are we in a Bitcoin-Bubble?
a) Yes
b) No
Current Chart:
https://i.imgur.com/53PfhpD.png
Poll closes in 48h. (Sunday night)
Regards, NF414
Bump if you like | Donations: 1YxJ5VnxHDXFuBA1zWvcEZzTTXo5WGt8D
a) Yes
b) No
Current Chart:
https://i.imgur.com/53PfhpD.png
Poll closes in 48h. (Sunday night)
Regards, NF414
Bump if you like | Donations: 1YxJ5VnxHDXFuBA1zWvcEZzTTXo5WGt8D
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