Topic: [poll]Bitfury. What do you think? (Read 5384 times)

Well, i voted yes at the time, shame on me.

Bitfury - no. The 100TH project based on Bitfury's chips can be found here:

https://picostocks.com/stocks/view/19



...one gets used to the site.

Are the stocks of Bitfury traded on any exchange ?

I already admitted I didn't pay much attention to the OP. In the beginning I only saw the poll and reacted on Bitfury being technically credible, skipping the Russian bit as non-important (there are literally thousands of new posts on bitcointalk each hour, to keep my sanity and some free time I simply can't read every word) and reacted to some later post in the thread. This is why we couldn't understand each other: the Metabank.ru thing was an unimportant detail for me (I didn't even notice that they were the author of the Russian post initially).
I only noticed the thread because of Bitfury in the name and initially reacted to an unit error in some computations. The content of the OP didn't really interest me.

But seriously this whole thing is confusing unless you speak Russian: I don't know who Metabank.ru is/are and a single post on a forum in Russian probably translated by Google is not reliable information. If it's kept in the russian subforums I probably won't have any access to ASIC from them (at least I'm not sending money to a russian address just because there's a post promising to sell Bitfury's ASICs) so they don't matter to me. Maybe the OP should have explained the subject concisely instead of dumping a whole pile of Russian followed by a bad translation.


This is pure speculation (I don't have any inside information and nobody volunteered any) and the answer isn't really important for me (I don't care much if the 100TH-mine gets more hashrate later) but there is at least 1 possible motive : the managers might be large shareholders themselves and it would then be in their direct long-time interest to keep the mine as profitable as possible. That said you might well be right, but who knows? This is only speculation. This is why I was interested by a reference to tytus stating that he won't add hashrate: at least it would help clear things up (assuming he's the only one deciding these matters...).

I'm not trying to troll here: these forums are full of "someone said this, someone said that" which are approximations or even just rumours without grounds. When I see a bad translation from a russian post on a subject nobody heard of before... let's just say that my brains may have developed antiSPAM algorithms of their own. And if you start looking at this kind of subject seriously you better ask questions and not take anything for granted: there will most probably be numerous Bitfury and Avalon chip resellers with plenty of room for business failures from the like of Tom (remember bASIC, I was burned...) and scams (there are so many proved scammers that a post wouldn't do them justice...).


Hey I wasn't even sure what we were discussing here. The last posts are happily mixing two subjects : the Metabank.ru vs 100TH-mine investments and the 100TH-mine vs ASICMINER investments. Don't blame me for being confused on a forum with nearly one post per second if there's no clear context in the post I'm replying to.

My main point is that I don't think valuing long-term plans with ASICs and Bitcoin is a good plan: too much volatility. In my opinion the current contenders this summer are still ASICMINER and the 100TH mine (feel free to disagree, there are obviously chances that I'm wrong about this, this is more a matter of opinion based on a very incomplete knowledge of what all the competitors are able to achieve). ASICMINER is growing slowly (this may change if their speed is still limited by their available space and not by the speed at which they can setup their blades) and 100TH has the advantage of more compact technology (faster to setup as there is probably more hashrate per chip/blade/whatever they use) and a place designed for the whole mine from the start.
At a price per GH/s inferior to ASICMINER (assuming they both reach their top capacity) they have a chance to be the best investment short term. This is were the most probable benefits are: long term ASICMINER could be better, but long term they could both be wiped out by a new contender anyway.

Firstly, that's about 3 months. More exactly, that's 2.5 months at earliest (mid May till beginning of August) and 4.5 months at latest (till end of September, that's what their agreemen states, with all signatures and stamps of the legitimate company, signed in person, for those who buy directly).

Anyway, a couple of posts ago you said that I was possibly trolling, and then you asked for a link to devices which are described in the OP of this thread. So who is trolling after that?


Why would the managers reinvest if they can just take new investment for production of a new batch of already designed and working chips? They don't have even formal obligations to give any advantages to initial investors. They only promised 0.2GH/s per share, so why give more?

AM has intellectual property rights for chip and board design, business contacts with the fab etc. And all this stuff belongs to investors. That's the board of investors who make decisions on future plans, not Friedcat himself or any managers! Who has the IP rights for Bitfury chips? Bitfury? Tytus? Metabank? Nobody knows. Most probably, you get 0.2GH/s per share and nothing more.

If you still can't see the difference between AM, even in its early days, and 100TH, and want to compare their price in terms of BTC/GH, there's nothing to discuss anymore.

July is the optimistic estimate. Everyone so far has had delays...

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1696300

Tytus/bitfury have investors (or are self funded) so they don't necessarily need to build an on going business around the 100TH security. If I were them and had enough money, why bother maintaining a complicated security when you can produce hardware without the "customer service" hassle. Tytus stated that they would have gone forward with harware production even without IPO funds. The small amount of funds that they got from IPO was nothing compared to the big holders on picostocks.

That said, as an investor, I would love for them to convert 100TH into an AM-like security.

Currently this is ~0.6BTC/GH : $72/GH for the 100TH-mine. These are GH/s available in July, not September.

There are far too many unknowns for me to even consider the alternative: how much will customs taxes be? What are the finished product specs and price: aren't these the bare chips price? Is the Google translation accurate enough? Is the September delivery for chips to manufacturers of finished products or for the miner appliances/cards/blades/... themselves?

I think we didn't understand each other simply because for me the only contenders in the near future are ASICMINER and the 100TH-mine.
Avalon delays start to make them look like BFL, which is no more than a joke for an order today and the Bitfury chips sold in September are so full of unknowns I didn't even start to consider them.

Hum, if he still has shares in the 100TH-mine he will probably want to, do you have a link to this statement?

I know I would: to protect your income in mining you have to keep your share of the network hashrate more or less a constant. This means reinvesting and the 100th-mine managers are in the best position to do that. I'm not sure why they wouldn't want to do it.

In any case, if tytus doesn't want the 100TH-mine to invest in more hardware this means more dividends initially and opportunities to reinvest them elsewhere: this puts the reinvestment policy in the hands of investors.
It's not necessarily a bad thing although not what I'd prefer myself.

Yes, but I don't plan investments in the Bitcoin world on what will happen at the earliest in 4 months (I tried once and was burnt). Things move far too quickly to make accurate projections so far. The 100TH-mine is the next big event I know which can be profitable (scheduled in July) unless BFL pulls a magic trick and start delivering less than a month after ordering.


Notice the difference: Friedcat used "always" (this is enforced by the IPO rules if you trust him and I don't see any reason not to at this point). tytus didn't : the mine is built so that a share is 200MH/s at launch but there's nothing preventing it to grow next (or did tytus actually said somewhere that the managers of the mine won't ever reinvest gains into new hardware ?).

The business plan alone https://picostocks.com/businessplan/19 makes them more transparent than, say, ASICMINER.


And yet, out of all the Spartan6-LX150 miner designs, he is the person who made the fastest bitstream (300 Mh/s per FPGA, compared to the "professional" competition at 200-220 Mh/s). Sometimes autodidacts are better than university-taught people. I see that quite often in my professional field as well.

(Disclosure: I think the BitFury ASIC is real. I have shares in 100Th-Mine)

yes. 100TH shares always represent 0.2 GH/s. Tytus stated that he does not want to expand capacity since it will "complicate" things (it would be nice if tytus would convert to an AM model, but don't count on it).

100TH shares right now are more expensive than metabank's stated price of $18/GH. Initially, 100TH was priced at $5/GH.

100TH shares are cheaper than AM blades price per GH, but obviously you can get your AM blades right now.

There is potential for 100TH chips to be 65% faster. It remains to be seen whether tytus will scale the hashing power up for each share or only put online 103TH/s since that is what was purchased during the IPO. (edit, those wafers were not ordered for the mine)

Now I am really confused  Original post of this thread. Did you read it?


Once again.
"Each share of ASICMINER always represents 1/400,000 of the whole company." -- Friedcat
"Each share corresponds to 0.2 GH/s." -- tytus

I don't know what the Metabank's devices you are referring to are. Any link to a description?


Not exactly:

• Initially AM was planned initially as a pure mining company and didn't plan for their last 200TH/s order (I'm not even sure they talked about the second 50TH/s order from the beginning)
• AM has ordered 262TH/s worth of chips but they only have 20+ online right now and at the current speed (10+TH/week) it should take 3 or 4 more months to reach 262TH/s
• they auctioned 240 10GH/s blades (10 in batch 1, 50 in batch2, 180 in batch3) worth 2.4TH.

AM doesn't promise any further investment, any upgrade, any sales, nothing. It's just common sense to sale blades today instead of letting them sit waiting for a place to be installed and so they do it.

The 100TH mine is in the same position right now than the one AM was at the beginning: they want to be a pure mining company but to maximize profit they may very well start selling hardware like AM did and they might decide to invest more, upgrading is not on the table right now as they expect to get superior chips compared to the rest of the market.

If you read carefully the business plan the 100TH project doesn't specify if all benefits will be redistributed to shareholders or if a part will be retained for further investments. They only describe how ROI is projected with only mining leaving room for income optimization as they see fit.

Thank you, now I get it.

However, this does not change the 2 facts I was talking about:
1) At this time, Metabank's devices are about 4 times cheaper in terms of BTC/GH than 100TH's shares.
2) Unlike AM, a 100TH's share is just 0.2 GH/s. No reinvestment, no upgrade, no share in future batches, no income from sales, no nothing, just pure 0.2 GH/s.

Is this right?

Bitfury just design chips and devices, and HE SELL THEM. Not the opossite. Tytus bought prelimenary chips and promised 100TH mine. Tytus (100TH mine) and Metabank are investors. Both sponsored development and first batch of chips.

I am not trolling, seriously. Maybe I missed some info, or can't express my thoughts right.
On the quote which you give here:
100TH: 0.7 BTC/GH. Bitfury: 0.17 BTC/GH. Same chips, same batch. Without talking about AM at all.

I see you are still comparing 100TH to AM in terms of price per GH, which is not correct. Each share of ASICMINER always represents 1/400,000 of the whole company. (quote from Friedcat). A share of 100TH represents 0.2GH and no more than that. Without a vote by investors board, AM cannot sell half of their chips to a third party, like 100TH did with Bitfury.

Also, compare 100TH's price per GH to Bitfury's devices. That's 0.7 vs 0.17.

Please tell me me if I understand anything wrong.

baloo_kiev initial post on this subject began with :


So he was speaking of BTC not shares.

He's either confused or trolling. Most of what he writes doesn't make sense to me.

baloo_kiev is talking about GH/share, gyverlb GH/BTC. You both have right. But it's clearly that 100TH mine has 3,5 times better price (now). You can buy 3,5 times more hashpower per 1 BTC invested. Of course let's hope that everything will be good and 1st of July we will see first hashesh

So it's not 0.5 but 0.7 per GH. But that's even more!  I didn't compare it's price to AM. I compared it to Bitfury's devices. With AM you get a share in all their income for a lifetime, with 100TH you get only 0.2 GH per share. AM did not give half of their chips to a third-party project.

100TH-mine: last price 0.139BTC/share, 518271 total shares, 104TH/s projected hashrate : 1,44GH/s per BTC

ASICMINER: last price 1.62BTC/share, 400000 total shares, 262TH/s projected hashrate : 0,4GH/s per BTC

Can't guess where you got your numbers from.

How could it skyrocket if the price is already 0.5 BTC/GH, which is higher than current Bitfury price of 0.16 BTC/GH? Unlike ASICMINER, 100TH is just 0.2 GH per share without any future reinvestment/upgrade plans so far. Right?

Interesting reply, thank you.
Still, i won't invest into them because i have not enough trust in it and i have no need to gamble.

If they where more transparent, maybe i would have invested something.

• Bitfury doesn't disclose much of his operations. But if they didn't sell their fpga-rack, I'd like to know where they found the money to build them...
• Not disclosing contracts is standard: I've never disclosed any contract I made to a third party and don't see why I should (in fact they are considered private by default and disclosing them would be at least a breach of trust).
• I don't see where Bitfury is late, the 100TH-mine doesn't seem to be either. What are the delays you are referring to?
• It's no secret that Bitfury has private clients and didn't need to make a public IPO (edit: in fact I think the 100TH-mine is mainly under tytus control and as one of the very first Bitcoin pioneers and pool operators he has contacts too). That's too bad for us for not being invited from the beginning but I don't see what it has to do with scamming people.
• You don't care for 100BTC? See my tip address below and don't be shy if you have several of these I promise I won't invest it all in the 100TH-mine.

In fact the main reason I decided to invest in the 100TH-mine is because I've read technical discussions between eldentyrrel and bitfury on the forum. I know this guy is good technically (in the "awesome" ballpark kind of good: eldentyrrel and bitfurry are the only ones I know to have made stable Spartan6 bitstreams above 230MH/s). There's still risk of course but if the project fails or underperforms I don't think it will be because of lack of technical skills.

What are the most concrete proofs we have that it's not a scam?

-Bitfury as far as i know never sold his fpga-rack
-They did not published any contract with the fab
-They are late (maybe this is normal?)
-The IPO imo was a joke (noone from the forum as far as i know invested, they already had private investors, impossible to verify)
-The bitbet.us bet could be a way to fool us (100btc? who cares of 100btc?)

Also, isn't 0.7W/GH some amazing achievement? What kind of nm would that require? If i recall it correctly the ipo didn't earn them a lot of money, something in the range of avalon batch 1 or asicminer (<500k$).

What's your tough?

Forgot to vote.
I'm wondering if I'll have time/BTC to buy more 100TH-mine shares before they skyrocket like ASICMINER did...

I guess you know how I voted...

Dexter770221, of course those numbers are unrealistic. But it's clear that they have no hard limits and may well increase the first batch by another 100-200TH if they have enough pre-order money in June. This may have significant impact on total network hashrate and miners' profits.
That's why it sounds strange to me when people talk about 130 days breakeven period even for hardware available today (like ASICMINER blades).
No breakeven in two months = probably no breakeven ever.
Sorry for offtopic in this scam/no scam poll thread.

Yep, you right. Sorry 15.4 Megawatt.
But we may consider another perspective...
2k wafers with 4k chips on it. That gives as 8 000 000 bare chips. They need to be cut from wafer and put into package. Even if fab would put one in a second (and I doubt that it is so fast) that gives 92 days to complete. And that's only the beggining of making working device....

Unit FAIL.

Interesting numbers
Bitcoin is becoming huge!

Power consumption perspective:
Bitfury says 0.7W/Gigahash (whole device). So:
1TH/s = 700W
1PH/s = 700 000W
22PH/s =  15 400 000W = 15.4 Gigawatt
Largest producer of electricy in the world: USA has 1152.8 Gigawatt power infrastructure.
Adding 1.5% monthly will crash whole system in 6 months becuse it's not possible to increase that much in so short period of time.
Summary:
We will not see 22PH/s increase monthly. Not with this gen of devices becuse power grids will not handle this.

Well, at first it could be 200TH. But then...


Translation: In general, there's almost no limits for sane chip production volumes. One wafer ~4412 chips (how many of them working is still unknown). Maximal production volume which is not hard to order (no extraordinary production planning) is <=2000 wafers per month. Factory will be glad! That's 22 PETAHASH per month. It would be cool to grow to these limits... So there will be no chip crisis. Well, some local crisis may exist, for example we might wait for 2-3 months. We cannot increase number of wafers in an already ordered batch. One of Metabank's goals is to give us a bulk order in June, so we can order right amount of wafers.
---

You see? They can produce practically any number of chips. So if tomorrow a huge investor or a group of them walk into his place and gives cash for 22 petahash/s... we might see them online in September-October.

i believe initially it is 200+ TH/s

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1675144

400TH

Well, even if it's not scam, there are still some problems with it.


What I see is that there are multiple investors, and one of them (Metabank) is going to sell part of its chips. The main question which comes into my head is how many chips are they going to produce in total. They are not giving any numbers. It could end up in August like "Here are your devices, we ship them in time and the specs are even better than was announced! BTW, the factory has already produced 100,000 chips and we are licensing it to other factories, most chips going to investors, happy mining!"

I dunno, if anyone is capable then it is Bitfury, from my conversations they are straight shooters and really really know their onions.

If V reckons that they can do that, then it would be a brave man to bet against bitfury. imho.

I know butfury are not that active on this board, but they are a real company with some of the finest minds i have had the pleasure to talk with.

edit lol @

I know I laughed but seriously that is actually a bit harsh, do you have the skills to judge whether bitfury can complete this or not? you are more or less admitting that you dont, so therefore they are scammers??

I have no idea if they are scammers or not, what I do know is that they have at least 2 members of their team that are really really good with electronics and chip design. - superhuman good... I have been waiting for them to make an announcement about asics since last year they have the talent to pull this off.

I put my BTC on what I think.
Thanks