POLL:How likely do you think it is we see double digits in 2015?

ensurance982

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Trust me!

Quote from: phoenix1 on April 16, 2015, 09:10:14 PM

Inspired by two equally bold and opposing calls in the Chessnut's 'Critical Level's' thread (85% and 20%), thought it would be interesting to see what anyone else has to say ...
Poll closes in 30 days, unless target hit earlier Wink

I see the probability at about 20%. Just keep in mind: People back in 2011 were anticipating and predicting a sub $2 coin again, and it never happened. We're now at a serious support level and I wouldn't be surprised if we, at least to some degree, bounce off that.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 19, 2015, 11:33:50 PM

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 07:38:00 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 17, 2015, 02:18:42 PM

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 04:00:50 AM

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

"You can sheer a sheep many times, but skin it only once." In bitcoin's case meaning unregulated central exchanges will be finally exposed as bad for bitcoin because they favor fiat profit taking. Even Wall Street doesn't allow such volatility. Decentralized exchanges will slow down trading and allow natural price discovery without panic trading. Also such low prices are boring and nobody will care anymore. Bitcoin will go back to hobby status until the next development wave creates more disruptive technology that eliminates exchanges entirely.

I disagree!
Slower exchange of BTC to/from USD does not make more natural price discovery and will actually hinder growth through inefficiency of payment processing. Sure, it may cut down on some panic because it will be absolutely more hassle than it's worth. How is that efficient or natural? Sounds more like forced price discovery to the upside. Low, unimaginable prices will be the true test of Bitcoins' stay power and the loyalty of it's investors.

Nothing would hinder trade from reaching exponentially higher levels without the bottlenecks of centralized exchanges. They would simply be free from fraudulent price reporting and fractional reserve market manipulation.

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 07:38:00 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 17, 2015, 02:18:42 PM

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 04:00:50 AM

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

"You can sheer a sheep many times, but skin it only once." In bitcoin's case meaning unregulated central exchanges will be finally exposed as bad for bitcoin because they favor fiat profit taking. Even Wall Street doesn't allow such volatility. Decentralized exchanges will slow down trading and allow natural price discovery without panic trading. Also such low prices are boring and nobody will care anymore. Bitcoin will go back to hobby status until the next development wave creates more disruptive technology that eliminates exchanges entirely.

I disagree!
Slower exchange of BTC to/from USD does not make more natural price discovery and will actually hinder growth through inefficiency of payment processing. Sure, it may cut down on some panic because it will be absolutely more hassle than it's worth. How is that efficient or natural? Sounds more like forced price discovery to the upside. Low, unimaginable prices will be the true test of Bitcoins' stay power and the loyalty of it's investors.

stonerider

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I believe there's 100% chance that we will see double digits within 8 months. Bitcoin prices have been steadily and consistently declining for over 16 months. And it will continue the trajectory for the next 8 months or so, without a major breakthroughs like the Winklevoss ETF. With or without the ETF, the next halving will have an effect on the price. By the end of 2016, we will see the btc price rise to $5000. However, there's still more blood ahead in the short to medium time frame.

Chef Ramsay

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Quote from: 1Referee on April 17, 2015, 03:27:10 PM

I voted for 0-20% as it is not very likely to see double digits this year.

If there would be a reason for it, then the Bitstamp hack could have triggered double digits. But it didn't.

That's pretty much my thoughts on the subject unless, God forbid, Bitfinex goes the way of the dinosaurs or any similar way. Let's hope that notthing else happens to trigger mayhem.

BlindMayorBitcorn

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Substantial thread. I'm hooked! And I voted, too Grin

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 17, 2015, 02:18:42 PM

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 04:00:50 AM

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

"You can sheer a sheep many times, but skin it only once." In bitcoin's case meaning unregulated central exchanges will be finally exposed as bad for bitcoin because they favor fiat profit taking. Even Wall Street doesn't allow such volatility. Decentralized exchanges will slow down trading and allow natural price discovery without panic trading. Also such low prices are boring and nobody will care anymore. Bitcoin will go back to hobby status until the next development wave creates more disruptive technology that eliminates exchanges entirely.

1Referee

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I voted for 0-20% as it is not very likely to see double digits this year.

If there would be a reason for it, then the Bitstamp hack could have triggered double digits. But it didn't.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Tzupy on April 17, 2015, 02:54:31 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 17, 2015, 02:18:42 PM

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 04:00:50 AM

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

Win win just in theory. The exchange owners probably are large BTC holders, they would personally benefit much more from higher prices.

I guess my main point is that they flourished just fine for 3 years before we broke $100 and I don't understand why breaking below it now would make any difference to that. Sure, they may prefer higher prices, but that doesn't mean they go under. Only if people leave by the droves due to perceived failure would they end up hurting financially from such an event.

Tzupy

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 17, 2015, 02:18:42 PM

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 04:00:50 AM

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

Win win just in theory. The exchange owners probably are large BTC holders, they would personally benefit much more from higher prices.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 04:00:50 AM

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

phoenix1

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^^

futureofbitcoin

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Merit: 250

Quote from: phoenix1 on April 17, 2015, 08:05:05 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

My humblest apologies for not allowing you to fully express yourself and forcing you to give the appearance that you might possibly be even slightly open to the possibility. Very pleased you feel able to talk about it now and relieve you angst. I will punch myself in the face several times as pennance. I hope that helps. After all, it was clearly a deliberate attempt to skew the poll to give us a misleading average greater than zero Cheesy

Would 1% intervals keep everyone happy? Or do we need to go to decimals ?

Any other 0-20 haters out there, c'mon, speak up, don't be shy!

*speaking for them*: Just change the poll such that the answers are either 0%, 0%, 0%, impossible, or no way in hell.

srgkrgkj

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Quote from: phoenix1 on April 17, 2015, 08:05:05 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

My humblest apologies for not allowing you to fully express yourself and forcing you to give the appearance that you might possibly be even slightly open to the possibility. Very pleased you feel able to talk about it now and relieve you angst. I will punch myself in the face several times as pennance. I hope that helps. After all, it was clearly a deliberate attempt to skew the poll to give us a misleading average greater than zero Cheesy

Would 1% intervals keep everyone happy? Or do we need to go to decimals ?

Any other 0-20 haters out there, c'mon, speak up, don't be shy!

xD phoniex, well some people feel strongly about the success of Bitcoin and i might be one of them too lol

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

My humblest apologies for not allowing you to fully express yourself and forcing you to give the appearance that you might possibly be even slightly open to the possibility. Very pleased you feel able to talk about it now and relieve you angst. I will punch myself in the face several times as pennance. I hope that helps. After all, it was clearly a deliberate attempt to skew the poll to give us a misleading average greater than zero Cheesy

Would 1% intervals keep everyone happy? Or do we need to go to decimals ?

Any other 0-20 haters out there, c'mon, speak up, don't be shy!

NeuroticFish

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Activity: 3668

Merit: 6382

Looking for campaign manager? Contact icopress!

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

That said double digits would mean that Bitcoin was completely abandoned by investors and almost everybody cashed out. I'm sure we're far from this extreme outcome.
There's still a chance we'll go below $200 for a bit, but we are already below the long term trend line so it won't last long.

You have been in here too early. The poll is still young and already more than 50% of us voted for 0-20%.
Don't make your assumptions too quick, your life will be easier then.

futureofbitcoin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

That said double digits would mean that Bitcoin was completely abandoned by investors and almost everybody cashed out. I'm sure we're far from this extreme outcome.
There's still a chance we'll go below $200 for a bit, but we are already below the long term trend line so it won't last long.

I think many of the smartest folks are a bit more long term than that. Those who will abandon bitcoin when the price reaches double digits are mostly people who made 0 contributions to the system and don't really matter anyway. There will be enough people who will replace them in the next rally.

Correction. I HOPE that's the case.

futureofbitcoin

sr. member

Activity: 322

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I would've voted for 0-100%, but since there was no such option, I just voted 40-60% since I wanted to see the results.

You see, I'm no market analyst so I have no clue what will happen. You guys can mentally remove 1 vote from 40-60% i guess

phoenix1

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Quote from: srgkrgkj on April 17, 2015, 06:44:03 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on April 17, 2015, 06:41:15 AM

Quote from: srgkrgkj on April 17, 2015, 06:32:44 AM

Quote from: swansong on April 17, 2015, 06:10:16 AM

You should add another option = 0%.

lol thats what i was thinking too Tongue

but yeah i believe the chances of double digits are near 0 or 0.1 even in a flash crash this year ...

Bit late now as we dont know how many 0%'ers are already in the 0-20% category.
Next time ... goddam extremists Tongue

xD guess we should poll again lol they were pretty wide ranges tho :O

Intentionally so. I almost went for 10%, but I thought it would be easier for people to place themselves in a 20% band than agonise over which 10% range. Seemed a bit narrow. Personally I would find it difficult to quantify my feelings to that degree of precision Wink

0 or 100% woulda been fun in order to see the extremists, but also encourages trolling I think, and I am hoping we get honest votes and a representative result. Maybe 0-10 and 90-100 would be good to put into the mix next time ...

srgkrgkj

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Quote from: phoenix1 on April 17, 2015, 06:41:15 AM

Quote from: srgkrgkj on April 17, 2015, 06:32:44 AM

Quote from: swansong on April 17, 2015, 06:10:16 AM

You should add another option = 0%.

lol thats what i was thinking too Tongue

but yeah i believe the chances of double digits are near 0 or 0.1 even in a flash crash this year ...

Bit late now as we dont know how many 0%'ers are already in the 0-20% category.
Next time ... goddam extremists Tongue

xD guess we should poll again lol they were pretty wide ranges tho :O

phoenix1

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Activity: 798

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Quote from: srgkrgkj on April 17, 2015, 06:32:44 AM

Quote from: swansong on April 17, 2015, 06:10:16 AM

You should add another option = 0%.

lol thats what i was thinking too Tongue

but yeah i believe the chances of double digits are near 0 or 0.1 even in a flash crash this year ...

Bit late now as we dont know how many 0%'ers are already in the 0-20% category.
Next time ... goddam extremists Tongue

srgkrgkj

legendary

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1000

Quote from: swansong on April 17, 2015, 06:10:16 AM

You should add another option = 0%.

lol thats what i was thinking too Tongue

but yeah i believe the chances of double digits are near 0 or 0.1 even in a flash crash this year ...

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1072

Quote from: cbeast on April 17, 2015, 04:00:50 AM

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

only those with huge volume maybe, they surely will start to cut employers and rise the fee at first

small exchange should be safe until sub 50 or around that

they could also start to buy in bulk if they see the price decline to that red zone, for this and for many other reason sub 100 will not see the light

swansong

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You should add another option = 0%.

Feri22

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Quote from: EuroTrash on April 17, 2015, 03:52:11 AM

The fact that the majority here thinks that there is no chance for double digits to happen makes me think that double digits is going to happen. Maybe even 40-50 dollars.

Yeah, i'm starting to getting this feeling too...but also i am still hoping that soon nobody will believe in reversal and than it will happen because bears would become to sure about the doom of BTC...so pick Wink

WhatTheGox

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Quote from: phoenix1 on April 16, 2015, 09:10:14 PM

Inspired by two equally bold and opposing calls in the Chessnut's 'Critical Level's' thread (85% and 20%), thought it would be interesting to see what anyone else has to say ...
Poll closes in 30 days, unless target hit earlier Wink

We only see these levels if we have some insane bad news i think, bears will always set a target way lower than what they actually think.

8up

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Quote from: EuroTrash on April 17, 2015, 03:52:11 AM

The fact that the majority here thinks that there is no chance for double digits to happen makes me think that double digits is going to happen. Maybe even 40-50 dollars.

Indeed. Besides you never know, if it is faked. As everybody in here knows, that the overall sentiment (blind spot) is the (unvisible) price forth. I observe polls for quite a time. The option with the fewest votes almost every time became reality.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

8up

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Merit: 500

Quote from: randy8777 on April 17, 2015, 03:46:03 AM

chances are very small to even not possible as the halving is getting closer which at some point this year will make people hoard bitcoin to not miss the train.

Guys come on. Forget the halving myth. We know well in advance every halving in the next century!!! These things are going to be priced in long before the happening. It will not have the influence you suppose it has.

If $210 doesn't hold we will see $60-120 almost for sure. Selling pressure and mining alone will lead to a price decline even if all the holders don't fold.

The sentiment is still 50/50 - it feels too bearish and too bullish at the same time. Don't know, what I should make of this. -> Well, waiting seems the best for now. Plus having 50% in fiat and 50% in bitcoin. Buy, if we break $240 - sell if we break $210.

EuroTrash

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The fact that the majority here thinks that there is no chance for double digits to happen makes me think that double digits is going to happen. Maybe even 40-50 dollars.

randy8777

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chances are very small to even not possible as the halving is getting closer which at some point this year will make people hoard bitcoin to not miss the train.

Amph

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Merit: 1072

chances are very slim for it to happen, there is more chances that it will stay around current price

futureofbitcoin

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Merit: 250

Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 17, 2015, 01:16:04 AM

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 16, 2015, 10:33:53 PM

Fence sitting is for the...

So the value of all the bitcoin in the world would be below1.5billion..
How much money has been invested into the Bitcoin environment this year again?

I don't see a downwards breakout happening, quite the opposite in fact!

environment != bitcoin itself. bitcoin companies can be profitable without bitcoin becoming extremely expensive. That's why VCs invest in companies, not the coin itself.

NUFCrichard

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Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 16, 2015, 10:33:53 PM

Fence sitting is for the...

So the value of all the bitcoin in the world would be below1.5billion..
How much money has been invested into the Bitcoin environment this year again?

I don't see a downwards breakout happening, quite the opposite in fact!

Cconvert2G36

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Fence sitting is for the...

waterpile

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Quote from: montreal on April 16, 2015, 10:07:39 PM

if we linger below $100 i cant wait to read the reddit discussions

It would be will be just filled up by discussions: "I told you so" and "bitcoin is dead"

Voted! Im not that optimistic going for the double digits

phoenix1

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Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 16, 2015, 09:48:20 PM

Nobody "on the fence"?

It can be hard to get on the fence

Sometimes the fence bites back

Sometimes you simply get stuck there while trying to poop in the neighbour's garden

Don't mess with fences ...

montreal

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if we linger below $100 i cant wait to read the reddit discussions

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Nobody "on the fence"?

HeliKopterBen

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Voted

hodlmybtc

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Doubt that we're going to see double digits, if so it will be an awesome buying opportunity but I guess there are too many people with fiat on the sidelines between $100 and $200.

phoenix1

hero member

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Quote from: Chef Ramsay on April 16, 2015, 09:17:00 PM

I'm long no matter what but I do have a trading kitty that I use to play the ups/downs or whatever (some) calls I see from those that have a decent track record. At this point, I'm just playing litecoin w/ my play coinage and assembling a stash that may move a lot higher during the next bitcoin rally. I know those that are long now as well as the flip side and I have equal respect for both at this point from what I've seen of them in the past. All I know is that the liquidity swap interest rates for those using bitcoin are down quite a bit from just a week or two ago so go ahead and speculate on what that means.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Hehe
Voted!

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 16, 2015, 07:22:36 PM

I would have to say they are all fairly equally doomy
I'm giving an 85% chance we see double digits in this bear market. Bold, I know, but it just doesn't look good for any bullish scenario to develop in the near to mid term.

Chef Ramsay

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I'm long no matter what but I do have a trading kitty that I use to play the ups/downs or whatever (some) calls I see from those that have a decent track record. At this point, I'm just playing litecoin w/ my play coinage and assembling a stash that may move a lot higher during the next bitcoin rally. I know those that are long now as well as the flip side and I have equal respect for both at this point from what I've seen of them in the past. All I know is that the liquidity swap interest rates for those using bitcoin are down quite a bit from just a week or two ago so go ahead and speculate on what that means.

phoenix1

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Quote from: BlindMayorBitcorn on April 16, 2015, 09:14:04 PM

Watching

Me or the poll ? Kiss

BlindMayorBitcorn

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Watching

phoenix1

hero member

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Merit: 1000

Inspired by two equally bold and opposing calls in the Chessnut's 'Critical Level's' thread (85% and 20%), thought it would be interesting to see what anyone else has to say ...
Poll closes in 30 days, unless target hit earlier Wink

Topic: POLL:How likely do you think it is we see double digits in 2015? (Read 2768 times)