Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics

STT

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Quote

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 20, 2025, ET and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The price might as well be zero then because limiting it so strictly on time is never going to work. Actually moving capital in that time is unlikely and I doubt any legislation is passed in that time frame for even a theoretical transfer of reserves.

The whole story and belief in something so extreme is the kind of hype that marks a top. Thats not my general impression of BTC movement but I guess its possible we only gain 50% over the last ATH. Most people dont expect this kind of resolution to pass, just saying the idea is what garners most of the benefit to politics in that it appears the administration is friendly to crypto while actually doing zero.

Correct time scale would be the full term of the President, not sure why it had to be so rushed because most government progress is glacial.

Jating

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Quote from: Botnake on December 28, 2024, 06:58:07 AM

Quote from: JiiBs on December 25, 2024, 06:21:11 PM

Quote from: Botnake on December 23, 2024, 10:11:10 AM

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

It’s a difficult to go on with for a bet given that, politics haven’t got any active role in sports betting which clearly this isn’t, neither is it a casino too but we many at times find it in the sportsbook.

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

I think the biggest difference with Polymarket is that they’re willing to take huge bets, which might not be possible with traditional sportsbooks. On Polymarket, there seems to be no limit, you can bet millions without any KYC checks. In contrast, sportsbooks usually have strict limits, require KYC verification, and might even report large transactions to the Anti-Money Laundering Council. It’s a significant distinction, especially for high-stakes bettors looking for more freedom.

Bigger crypto based casinos can also take huge bet as far as I know, that's why there are whales and that is why there are tier rewards or levels in casino. And there are casinos older than Polymarket or at least established in the same year and still these casinos are in the market.

The thing is that Polymarket allegedly is not registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and most likely this is the reason why they are not under scrutiny by the US DOJ. So who knows, they said that the platform has allowed US citizen. Others say it's a political retribution as it predicted Trump to win the election. Or they could be thinking that Polymarket has manipulated and rigged it to make Trump the winner.

Botnake

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Quote from: JiiBs on December 25, 2024, 06:21:11 PM

Quote from: Botnake on December 23, 2024, 10:11:10 AM

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

It’s a difficult to go on with for a bet given that, politics haven’t got any active role in sports betting which clearly this isn’t, neither is it a casino too but we many at times find it in the sportsbook.

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

I think the biggest difference with Polymarket is that they’re willing to take huge bets, which might not be possible with traditional sportsbooks. On Polymarket, there seems to be no limit, you can bet millions without any KYC checks. In contrast, sportsbooks usually have strict limits, require KYC verification, and might even report large transactions to the Anti-Money Laundering Council. It’s a significant distinction, especially for high-stakes bettors looking for more freedom.

Saint-loup

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it's even lower now at 28cents. But you shouldn't forget to take the "rules" of the market into account. As far as I understand, we are not taking about an announcement or a bill but an actual reserve with coins being officially held by the USA. So to be honest it doesn't look very likely to happen before end of April. It will take several months at least to be implemented IMO.

Quote

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 20, 2025, ET and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

blockman

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Quote from: Dave1 on December 27, 2024, 05:57:46 AM

Quote from: blockman on December 27, 2024, 04:55:24 AM

Who will know, there are still remaining days for Biden and we have no idea what's on his mind. Maybe he'll leave a legacy like that or will be of good help for SBF with that debt in gratitude he has for him. So, there are those who probably are thinking like that if Biden has got some thoughts on his mind to do it.

I doubt that even if he is not in the right frame of mind, he will just pardon SBF. As said, we haven't seen it before and so Biden and his political party doesn't want to do it as the American people will scorn them if ever they do.

So as far as betting goes, I will not put a penny on it, a long shot and chance are very slim.

In any case, I will still go back to where I might have a good chance to win which is sport betting and not on politics.

Yup, there are so much for the Biden administration to do and he can just let this slide and pass on the torch to Trump to decide. So, if someone has got some spare money and they think that Biden won't pardon it, that's why the chance of winning is there that Biden will never give pardon to SBF.

Dave1

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Quote from: blockman on December 27, 2024, 04:55:24 AM

Quote from: Kemarit on December 25, 2024, 06:13:57 PM

Quote from: blockman on December 25, 2024, 05:48:33 PM

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

Should we bet that it's a no?

Nah, It will be a disaster for Biden and his political party if he pardons SBF. And we haven't seen any precedence that a Billion dollar criminal was suddenly pardon by any President in the US. But if you look at it, SBF is one of the biggest donator during Biden's time, but who knows, Grin

.

As far as political betting, I do understand the morality or ethics about those who question it. However, if you look at it as just some form or entertainment, then it's up to you whether to bet on it or not.

Who will know, there are still remaining days for Biden and we have no idea what's on his mind. Maybe he'll leave a legacy like that or will be of good help for SBF with that debt in gratitude he has for him. So, there are those who probably are thinking like that if Biden has got some thoughts on his mind to do it.

I doubt that even if he is not in the right frame of mind, he will just pardon SBF. As said, we haven't seen it before and so Biden and his political party doesn't want to do it as the American people will scorn them if ever they do.

So as far as betting goes, I will not put a penny on it, a long shot and chance are very slim.

In any case, I will still go back to where I might have a good chance to win which is sport betting and not on politics.

Botnake

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Quote from: JiiBs on December 25, 2024, 06:21:11 PM

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

We’re talking about gambling here, and in this perspective, nothing comes easy. The choices are always tough. However, there’s information we can use to analyze the outcome or the market before placing a bet. That said, even with analysis, it can still boil down to a 50-50 chance. Nothing is ever guaranteed in gambling.

blockman

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Quote from: Kemarit on December 25, 2024, 06:13:57 PM

Quote from: blockman on December 25, 2024, 05:48:33 PM

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

Should we bet that it's a no?

Nah, It will be a disaster for Biden and his political party if he pardons SBF. And we haven't seen any precedence that a Billion dollar criminal was suddenly pardon by any President in the US. But if you look at it, SBF is one of the biggest donator during Biden's time, but who knows, Grin

.

As far as political betting, I do understand the morality or ethics about those who question it. However, if you look at it as just some form or entertainment, then it's up to you whether to bet on it or not.

Who will know, there are still remaining days for Biden and we have no idea what's on his mind. Maybe he'll leave a legacy like that or will be of good help for SBF with that debt in gratitude he has for him. So, there are those who probably are thinking like that if Biden has got some thoughts on his mind to do it.

o48o

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

I have a feeling that the new hype in gambling is betting on either stupid stuff or politics, with Polymarket gaining more and more attention from bettors keen on trading prediction rather than coins. And so, in order to concentrate the decision on both polymarket and gambling on political events and stuff combined, let's talk here about those, especially since some of the best do include crypto, like betting on the chances of a Bitcoin reserve being done in less than 100 days.

Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump
-cut-

Imho some of those predictions are misleading, like "Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?". Rules in the description doesn't even mention that US or trump should be involved in the process.
What if the cease fire happens despite Trump wanting to annihilate Palestina before it? Outcome would falsely credit trump for the peace.

Same goes to "Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?". Seriously? Trump would get credit from that outcome even if he had nothing to do with that.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on December 25, 2024, 08:37:24 AM

Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

Is anyone taking bets here, buying options, thinking about giving it a chance or even creating his own market?

I have not even logged into the website before and I don't have intentions of betting there. My favorite type of gambling is on sports games which I already have a favorite bookie am using for that.

You have sports on Polymarket too:
https://polymarket.com/sports/live
Not as many but still enough for a daily quick fun bet, so what would be the disadvantages that prevent you tfrom rying them?

Quote from: Yaunfitda on December 26, 2024, 02:29:05 AM

Yes, political betting is not a thing, and authorities doesn't like it because it's like those gamblers are almost right all the time, just like in Trump winning the US election and everyone from around the world bet on Trump winning.

Authorities don't like political betting because it was restricted by the Federal Wire Act of 1961, that's 63 yers ago an has nothing to do with trump.

Betting on politics was all the rage in the 1870-1930
https://www.uvm.edu/~awoolf/classes/fall2004/election/Historical_Presidential_Betting_Markets.pdf

Quote

The extent of activity in the presidential betting markets of this time was
astonishingly large. For brief periods, betting on political outcomes at the Curb
Exchange in New York would exceed trading in stocks and bonds. Crowds formed
in the financial district—on the Curb or in the lobby of the New York Stock
Exchange—and brokers would call out bid and ask odds as if trading securities. In
presidential races such as 1896, 1900, 1904, 1916 and 1924, the New York Times, Sun and
World provided nearly daily price quotations from early October until Election Day

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: dansus021 on December 25, 2024, 11:37:06 PM

Well Polymarket now is the hot sites that I knew had been written on all media platforms because first the CEO FBI raids home and seizes phone of Polymarket founder https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/13/fbi-raid-polymarket-founder-trump-election

and all the noise because the politic gambling now a thing hahaha/

I hear it and see lot of people gamble on trump word heck the gamble start even before hi become the president and the market is crazy because it touched million dollar in the pot on a single game.

IOf you see this https://polymarket.com/event/trump-administration?tid=1735187775132 ho will be part of Trump's Administration? that already $3,401,145 Vol. Shocked

Yes, political betting is not a thing, and authorities doesn't like it because it's like those gamblers are almost right all the time, just like in Trump winning the US election and everyone from around the world bet on Trump winning. But in the US it looks like very close but at the end of the day, bettors was correct after all. And it's a billion dollar business now for the owner and maybe they will file all charges including tax evasion. However, there are reports that the volume of Poly went down hard after the US election. So most likely this is a temporary lull and then bettors going into sports betting right now.

dansus021

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Well Polymarket now is the hot sites that I knew had been written on all media platforms because first the CEO FBI raids home and seizes phone of Polymarket founder https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/13/fbi-raid-polymarket-founder-trump-election

and all the noise because the politic gambling now a thing hahaha/

I hear it and see lot of people gamble on trump word heck the gamble start even before hi become the president and the market is crazy because it touched million dollar in the pot on a single game.

IOf you see this https://polymarket.com/event/trump-administration?tid=1735187775132 ho will be part of Trump's Administration? that already $3,401,145 Vol. Shocked

Weawant

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Honestly why all of this is beginning to gain so much Credence in the gambling space is beginning to be something to really bother about because at some point I just couldn't understand why will issues of the state like this become an object to gamble over meanwhile we know how these issues shapens the society and some persons in their bid to be relevant would want to go get statistical information from thw data they will get from this predictions and it may in a way affect how people will think about the society when they see his data and that may spark reactions even before these things are implemented and this reactions could aswell further affect the implications, so there's actually so much to these things that we should make light.

JiiBs

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🌀 Cosmic Casino

Quote from: Botnake on December 23, 2024, 10:11:10 AM

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

It’s a difficult to go on with for a bet given that, politics haven’t got any active role in sports betting which clearly this isn’t, neither is it a casino too but we many at times find it in the sportsbook.

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

Kemarit

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Quote from: blockman on December 25, 2024, 05:48:33 PM

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

Quote from: blockman on December 24, 2024, 02:13:46 PM

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

I remember them, are they still in operation? these prediction markets seems to have a lot of interest from our co bettors.
This type of betting is becoming a trend and many are having fun with all of these predictions that they are giving to the community plus with the bet that they have.

Yes, they are: 🔮 Futuur - Predict the Future! 🔮.

Polymarket though hits differently, specially in political events that's why they become well know specially on the Trump winning the US election and a lot of people all over the world making money. Although there could be some manipulation as well if someone will deliberate make a FUD on some events.

https://polymarket.com/

Thanks. This is what's good with the internet and global market, everyone is involve with the money that circulates in the online gambling industry. Even the physical gamblers like this much because it's very comfortable.

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

Should we bet that it's a no?

Nah, It will be a disaster for Biden and his political party if he pardons SBF. And we haven't seen any precedence that a Billion dollar criminal was suddenly pardon by any President in the US. But if you look at it, SBF is one of the biggest donator during Biden's time, but who knows, Grin

.

As far as political betting, I do understand the morality or ethics about those who question it. However, if you look at it as just some form or entertainment, then it's up to you whether to bet on it or not.

Baofeng

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Quote from: nelson4lov on December 25, 2024, 05:54:49 PM

That's the benefit that Polymarket provides vs other gambling platforms. Polymarket is essential a prediction market which is. Being a decentralized platform means that anyone can just connect their wallet and create their own market — truly permissionless and that's a gambler's paradise. I reckon we would see more and more markets that spans even beyond politics and Trump.

Yeah, Polymarket attack is very different, it's gambling + political events rolled into one. And with that, for sure there are a lot of non-gamblers but loves politics and so they go and bet on that platform. Same for us gamblers, we love those kind of odds that are being offered and that's why Poly is a hit.

Although they are not under the microscope because of the Trump winning the election and then many people won big.

Polymarket ‘whale’ raked in $85M on Trump win — millions more than previously reported.

nelson4lov

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That's the benefit that Polymarket provides vs other gambling platforms. Polymarket is essential a prediction market which is. Being a decentralized platform means that anyone can just connect their wallet and create their own market — truly permissionless and that's a gambler's paradise. I reckon we would see more and more markets that spans even beyond politics and Trump.

blockman

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Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

Quote from: blockman on December 24, 2024, 02:13:46 PM

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

I remember them, are they still in operation? these prediction markets seems to have a lot of interest from our co bettors.
This type of betting is becoming a trend and many are having fun with all of these predictions that they are giving to the community plus with the bet that they have.

Yes, they are: 🔮 Futuur - Predict the Future! 🔮.

Polymarket though hits differently, specially in political events that's why they become well know specially on the Trump winning the US election and a lot of people all over the world making money. Although there could be some manipulation as well if someone will deliberate make a FUD on some events.

https://polymarket.com/

Thanks. This is what's good with the internet and global market, everyone is involve with the money that circulates in the online gambling industry. Even the physical gamblers like this much because it's very comfortable.

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

Should we bet that it's a no?

danherbias07

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I like that one option where Trump will release Ross William Ulbricht in his 100 first day after inauguration. He promised that and I hope he will not be a liar to tell it is impossible to let him go. This will boost the crypto industry and will probably hype Bitcoin after he does it. The next winner to me is the last option. Pardoning a protestor will also probably give him a good name in the public after he does it.
Still, I won't be joining the betting game because I don't like to be a part of shaking the political events in my lifetime. Also I condone those betting events because I think it is too much for the supporters of both sides.

Dr.Bitcoin_Strange

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Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

Is anyone taking bets here, buying options, thinking about giving it a chance or even creating his own market?

I have not even logged into the website before and I don't have intentions of betting there. My favorite type of gambling is on sports games which I already have a favorite bookie am using for that. Poly market prediction is mostly on political and social and environmental events and it's due to the US presidential election that made the site to start gaining more recognition which I believe that the population of its customers can not compare with some casinos and bookies. In my country, there's no body speaking about poly market, I wouldn't even know about it if not for this forum.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: fruktik on December 24, 2024, 11:22:37 PM

Has a new direction appeared in betting? Political betting? Seriously? Have we even lived to see this moment? Wow, I feel like this will soon become a real trend in the world of betting.

Political betting has always been a thing, it was even bigger than today with options being actually traded on exchanges:
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/10/25/163610752/americans-bet-211-million-on-the-presdiential-election-in-1916

Quote from: Haunebu on December 25, 2024, 06:44:31 AM

They just aren't as popular as the big sports markets and probably never will be since they are different in several key areas.

They can't be as popular as most are held once every 4 years, and even if we count local elections and senate it still falls way short of what a gambler needs, the other factor is the time needed for settling such a thing, unlike a normal football game it ain't over in 90 minutes. But other than that they are doing pretty fine.

Haunebu

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Quote from: fruktik on December 24, 2024, 11:22:37 PM

Has a new direction appeared in betting? Political betting? Seriously? Have we even lived to see this moment? Wow, I feel like this will soon become a real trend in the world of betting. I see more and more information about this. People are really ready to bet money on such events.

Political betting has always been a thing which is why I don't really understand what you are saying here. Other similar markets such as awards events betting etc have been available too for a long time now.

They just aren't as popular as the big sports markets and probably never will be since they are different in several key areas.

cryptomaniac_xxx

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Quote from: fruktik on December 24, 2024, 11:22:37 PM

Can we really expect a new subscription campaign to appear on the forum soon? )) What? It's a good option to create a good source of traffic to the resource polymarket. Has a new direction appeared in betting? Political betting? Seriously? Have we even lived to see this moment? Wow, I feel like this will soon become a real trend in the world of betting. I see more and more information about this. People are really ready to bet money on such events.

It should be the opposite though, if there is some projects out there that need to market here, it should be the competitor of Polymarket as Poly is already huge and well known even before the Trump prediction.

There are a lot of competitors by Poly and for now they haven't get close to what Poly has been this year. But if they wanted to get exposed and be bet by gamblers, then they should be the one having a campaign here and see how they can improved or even get to the numbers of bettors on Poly market right now.

Sithara007

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Polymarket needs to have a new bet on Trump's planned annexation of Grønland (he may rename that island as something like Yugeland), and also on the re-annexation of the Panama Canal Zone. Apart from the possibility of Bitcoin strategic reserve, this is something interesting IMO. Although a lot of people claim that Trump is not being very serious about this, I have the opposite opinion. Remember 1803 and 1867? Both the times, land purchases (obviously made against the wishes against native populations of that time), were heavily criticized by the Americans. But look at the situation now. How many of the US citizens want to give back Alaska to the Russians, and Greater Louisiana to France?

mammusu

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Quote from: SUPERSAIAN on December 24, 2024, 05:52:37 PM

Polymarket is really going somewhere different. Normally, you can bet on anything, no matter how ridiculous it is, it is still a bet. I don't know if there was a platform where similar bets were made before, but recently, betting has been evolving towards this. So it is definitely interesting that it makes people guess from daily life, from science to politics or from different areas. I wonder where it will go.

Compared from other gambling platforms that exist today, Polymarket is indeed a platform that is different from other platforms today, using blockchain technology, Polymarket offers high transparency and security on their site, but actually many bets that I think are not logical are bet on the platform, not only gambling, sains, politics, even every user allows to bet on various events in the futuresuch as nuclear war, so I think it is really far beyond logic and immoral at all.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Natalim on December 24, 2024, 11:24:33 PM

It always depends on personal preference. For me, I’ve tried betting on decentralized prediction markets before (though not this one). Before placing my bet, I always check the bookies to see the standard odds. However, it can get complicated because the odds in decentralized markets fluctuate based on the flow of money. This opens the door for whales to manipulate the odds, which can result in the odds we like dropping as the game gets closer. Sometimes, they even go lower than the bookies’ odds, meaning we lose value with a smaller payout. I’m not so sure if this is still how it works with Polymarket, but I think they follow a similar concept.

Both the categories have their own merits and demerits. For me, decentralized gambling sites such as Polymarket works better. But there were times in the recent past, where I got better odds with Stake.com. That said, volatility is an issue with Polymarket. Look at the odds for Presidential election. Trump was at 45% on one day, and the next day, his probability suddenly increased to 60%. And this pattern was noticed with other bets as well. With established sites, such sharp changes usually doesn't occur.

Darker45

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I'm now beginning to become interested again in the prediction market. I might create an account on Polymarket one of these days. I used to make bets in this kind of market years ago actually, but on a different platform.

As it appears, with how wide the coverage of this market is, it's probably easy to spot a nice prediction to bet on. Not just about politics, of course.

As to the Bitcoin strategic reserve to be realized in Trump's first 100 days, I might bet on no.

Natalim

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Quote from: Sithara007 on December 24, 2024, 10:35:42 PM

In normal gambling enterprises, the odds are first fixed by the "experts", and based on the number of bets from either direction they are modified later. But in case of Polymarket, odds are decided solely by the money flow from the gamblers. And I like this model, as it reduces risk for everyone. Whether it is more accurate or not, I am not too sure. Just because gamblers favor a team, or a player, or a politician to win, it is not necessary that he has the maximum probability to do so. The fact that Polymarket proved to be more accurate than opinion polls during the POTUS elections of 2024 doesn't change anything.

It always depends on personal preference. For me, I’ve tried betting on decentralized prediction markets before (though not this one). Before placing my bet, I always check the bookies to see the standard odds. However, it can get complicated because the odds in decentralized markets fluctuate based on the flow of money. This opens the door for whales to manipulate the odds, which can result in the odds we like dropping as the game gets closer. Sometimes, they even go lower than the bookies’ odds, meaning we lose value with a smaller payout. I’m not so sure if this is still how it works with Polymarket, but I think they follow a similar concept.

fruktik

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Can we really expect a new subscription campaign to appear on the forum soon? )) What? It's a good option to create a good source of traffic to the resource polymarket. Has a new direction appeared in betting? Political betting? Seriously? Have we even lived to see this moment? Wow, I feel like this will soon become a real trend in the world of betting. I see more and more information about this. People are really ready to bet money on such events.

Sithara007

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Quote from: OgNasty on December 24, 2024, 03:47:02 PM

Polymarket is turning into an interesting phenomenon. It was proven to be more accurate than political polls on the presidential election and now it seems to be positioning itself as a metric to measure the success of a President to get their initiatives done. I’m not sure if I like where this is going or not, but it is fascinating.

In normal gambling enterprises, the odds are first fixed by the "experts", and based on the number of bets from either direction they are modified later. But in case of Polymarket, odds are decided solely by the money flow from the gamblers. And I like this model, as it reduces risk for everyone. Whether it is more accurate or not, I am not too sure. Just because gamblers favor a team, or a player, or a politician to win, it is not necessary that he has the maximum probability to do so. The fact that Polymarket proved to be more accurate than opinion polls during the POTUS elections of 2024 doesn't change anything.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: SUPERSAIAN on December 24, 2024, 05:52:37 PM

Polymarket is really going somewhere different. Normally, you can bet on anything, no matter how ridiculous it is, it is still a bet. I don't know if there was a platform where similar bets were made before, but recently, betting has been evolving towards this. So it is definitely interesting that it makes people guess from daily life, from science to politics or from different areas. I wonder where it will go.

Yes, Polymarket is different than a common casino that we already used which we only need to connect our wallet to the site and start to place a bet. If I am not mistaken, there is a site similar with Polymarket. You can check Futuur which have so many bets you can find including politics like Polymarket. They also have their own token and have ANN here. You can check from what @Kemarit reply. Besides that, this site is online from a few years ago. Freebitco.in also gives a bet on the politics and other things.

STT

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Thats really interesting because there is a crossover to poll taking surveys except this method is voluntary self directed and money based but I always take it as more valid then most polls turn out to be, literally put your money where your mouth is.

Quote

betting on the chances of a Bitcoin reserve being done in less than 100 days.

34% is wildly too high imo, grand hopes by those bettors. Many betting will be involved in crypto rather then the general population wondering what the heck is this meaning of any of the words in this sentence lol. My take on that information would be that BTC could have some negative fallout from overly hopeful buying off the back of that reserve idea. It is quite unlikely, more then those odds reflect if only because USA is not running a budget surplus but a deficit so the main accumulation is debt based in dollars. Same for the other ideas but 7% for end of war is realistic so cant dispute that one so much.

Kemarit

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Quote from: blockman on December 24, 2024, 02:13:46 PM

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

I remember them, are they still in operation? these prediction markets seems to have a lot of interest from our co bettors.
This type of betting is becoming a trend and many are having fun with all of these predictions that they are giving to the community plus with the bet that they have.

Yes, they are: 🔮 Futuur - Predict the Future! 🔮.

Polymarket though hits differently, specially in political events that's why they become well know specially on the Trump winning the US election and a lot of people all over the world making money. Although there could be some manipulation as well if someone will deliberate make a FUD on some events.

https://polymarket.com/

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

SUPERSAIAN

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Polymarket is really going somewhere different. Normally, you can bet on anything, no matter how ridiculous it is, it is still a bet. I don't know if there was a platform where similar bets were made before, but recently, betting has been evolving towards this. So it is definitely interesting that it makes people guess from daily life, from science to politics or from different areas. I wonder where it will go.

Hispo

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Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

Futuur is still a thing and it seems to be up and running, but for some reason they did not have the surge in popularity Polymarket had in this past election campaign in the United States. I assume since we are talking about two betting comps is which have market for politics events like those linked to Trump and his promises, Futuur and Polymarket are direct competitors.
Once I asked the staff of Futuur if they could share their monthly volume openly and they said (back about 9 months or so) their monthly volume was almost 30,000 dollars, which is impressive considering that is rather a niche betting website.
After all the volume created by Polymarket, Futuur also probably has seen benefits with the increase of interest of people in betting on politics, I would bet their volume doubled since the last time I asked them about it.

OgNasty

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Polymarket is turning into an interesting phenomenon. It was proven to be more accurate than political polls on the presidential election and now it seems to be positioning itself as a metric to measure the success of a President to get their initiatives done. I’m not sure if I like where this is going or not, but it is fascinating.

acroman08

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damn, I am surprised that there are people who believe that Donald Trump will sign a national abortion ban, do they realize how big the US is and how much chaos this will cause. also, after looking around the internet, it looks like the guy is much more lenient on abortion than what they claims to be.

blockman

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Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

I remember them, are they still in operation? these prediction markets seems to have a lot of interest from our co bettors.
This type of betting is becoming a trend and many are having fun with all of these predictions that they are giving to the community plus with the bet that they have.

cabron

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Quote from: stompix on December 24, 2024, 07:16:33 AM

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur.

There was an earlier one, called Augur:
https://www.newsweek.com/welcome-augur-cryptocurrency-death-market-where-you-can-bet-donald-trump-1043571

Quote from: Haunebu on December 24, 2024, 06:59:26 AM

I don't think Americans can bet on any market in Polymarket anymore thanks to the current government messing up the site recently.

Americans haven't been able to bet on if since 2022, Polymarket (which is a US-based company) lost a case on this in the US back then, they are banned from taking any bets from US citizens.

Stepping a bit outside of politics:
https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27?tid=1735042546894
Bet on the number of Musk's tweets Grin

I think the old guys in crypto still remember that Augur. They do have a token still in the market but their website is not working anymore which leads to their GitHub.

US citizens are not able to bet while most of its market is about its politics.
Elon may be tweeting a lot but it can't be more than 250 by 27. Even this kind of bet is in polymarket, really crazy. I hope Musk himself bet on this and will deliberately tweet 500 times.

passwordnow

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Quote from: AmoreJaz on December 23, 2024, 12:57:19 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on December 23, 2024, 12:55:41 PM

I remember that some sports bookies have that type of betting before but it's totally crazy and poly is on another level. Is it them that are the ones that makes these things to bet for? or it is a suggestion from a user and their other users have agreed to bet on it and so the volume has grown? I wonder if stake will have these odd type of special events that they'll categorize in politics.

I think they have seen the demand and so they find a way to include it in their betting lines. Because without the demand, they won't create such topic to bet on. Because they will check the pulse of the market, and see what are the popular discussions in the market. They can also see how many and how much bets they can get out of it.
They will surely discard those betting lines that have very minimal bettors to none as it may incur operating costs to them.

That concludes that they're looking to what people likes to bet with. And I guess that anything that they're trying to add in there with some odd titles and events, their customers are still going to flock on it and the minimum volume of bets will start at $100k. That's a lot already and as gamblers come from everywhere, that even makes them to do more of these books and titles that are monitoring a lot of political and special events globally.

stompix

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Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur.

There was an earlier one, called Augur:
https://www.newsweek.com/welcome-augur-cryptocurrency-death-market-where-you-can-bet-donald-trump-1043571

Quote from: Haunebu on December 24, 2024, 06:59:26 AM

I don't think Americans can bet on any market in Polymarket anymore thanks to the current government messing up the site recently.

Americans haven't been able to bet on if since 2022, Polymarket (which is a US-based company) lost a case on this in the US back then, they are banned from taking any bets from US citizens.

Stepping a bit outside of politics:
https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27?tid=1735042546894
Bet on the number of Musk's tweets Grin

Haunebu

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I don't think Americans can bet on any market in Polymarket anymore thanks to the current government messing up the site recently. However, the rest of the world should be able to bet on any market provided there are no other restrictions.

Anyway, coming to Trump's promises, I would bet on him not fulfilling most or all of his promises since that's just how he is and history has proven that.

Text

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I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

Sithara007

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Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

✂✂✂✂
Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump

✂✂✂✂

For me, the most important one is creation of the Bitcoin reserve. And it's not just Trump. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the creation of a Bitcoin reserve, with one million coins a few days ago. VanEck also jumped into the fray, claiming that setting up a strategic Bitcoin reserve could potentially cut US debt by 36%. And if any of these proposals go through, what will happen to the Bitcoin prices? I would assume that they would jump by anywhere from 10x to 25x. By the end of Trump's term, we can expect the BTC exchange rates to be >$1 million per coin.

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: passwordnow on December 23, 2024, 12:55:41 PM

I remember that some sports bookies have that type of betting before but it's totally crazy and poly is on another level. Is it them that are the ones that makes these things to bet for? or it is a suggestion from a user and their other users have agreed to bet on it and so the volume has grown? I wonder if stake will have these odd type of special events that they'll categorize in politics.

Quote from: GxSTxV on December 23, 2024, 11:07:02 AM

Myself, knowing that I quit gambling, I would like to invest in something about the success of this market, such as specific coins related to Polymarket, isn't it better than gambling inside this platform itself?

As long as there is a demand for these kind of bets, they'll continue to add it. And I agree that it's better if there's something like that. But anyway, the platform itself is all about predictions so expect that anything that can be guessed or predicted, they'll have it.

I think they have seen the demand and so they find a way to include it in their betting lines. Because without the demand, they won't create such topic to bet on. Because they will check the pulse of the market, and see what are the popular discussions in the market. They can also see how many and how much bets they can get out of it.
They will surely discard those betting lines that have very minimal bettors to none as it may incur operating costs to them.

passwordnow

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I remember that some sports bookies have that type of betting before but it's totally crazy and poly is on another level. Is it them that are the ones that makes these things to bet for? or it is a suggestion from a user and their other users have agreed to bet on it and so the volume has grown? I wonder if stake will have these odd type of special events that they'll categorize in politics.

Quote from: GxSTxV on December 23, 2024, 11:07:02 AM

Myself, knowing that I quit gambling, I would like to invest in something about the success of this market, such as specific coins related to Polymarket, isn't it better than gambling inside this platform itself?

As long as there is a demand for these kind of bets, they'll continue to add it. And I agree that it's better if there's something like that. But anyway, the platform itself is all about predictions so expect that anything that can be guessed or predicted, they'll have it.

BABY SHOES

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Donald Trump's victory is getting interesting... many of Trump's promises are being bet on in the Polymarket as Donald Trum's victory is quite controversial... Did Joe Biden's win in the past Polymakert offer this betting option? Or did Polymarket not exist when Joe Biden won?....

I don't bet on the Polymarket platform... It's not as common as a regular casino.

But the interesting thing is.... Donald Trump's 10 working days will end the Gaza war? I think it will be interesting because there is a lot of support from those who want the middle east war to end.

Hispo

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Quote from: Akbarkoe on December 23, 2024, 10:31:52 AM

....
But what they bring up about the policies that will be taken is interesting politically and betting, and I seem to be more and more tempted by political betting in the future, with economic issues and major policies in the US sphere.

Let us be honest: Trump as a president and politician in general is wacky. That means there are more people feeling enthusiastic in betting on what is going to happen in the United States, both in their inner policies and also in the policies they plan to apply against their adversaries and allies.
Had Joe Biden or kamala won the election, there would not be as many people looking to bet on politics, because both of them were part of the establishment, the status quo, Trump is rather unpredictable and that is what makes betting on his policies attractive for people, specially those who have been into politics for rather a long time.

I was not aware polymarket had a dedicated section on Trump and his promises, to be honest, I will take a look at it when I have got some time.
Though we must remember that since we are talking on promises of Trump, someone within his team could use privileged information in order to execute a bet just before Trump made public some of his decisions as president, we need to be careful about it.

mindrust

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Nothing surprising. Politics has always been a hot topic and people have been betting on politics for a long time. Lots of people learned about its popularity after polymarket became famous probably and I can understand that.

Long before polymarket I was making bets on freebitco.in. I made a bet on Trump’s victory in 2016 and won.

I was wondering back then why people waste their time on sports betting while politics is much more predictable and fun…

cabron

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Quote from: Betwrong on December 23, 2024, 10:38:03 AM

Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

~
Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump

~

Wait, what? More than 50% chance that Trump in his first 100 days will pardon Ross Ulbricht?

I didn't know that Trump was going to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. I personally think that would be great. Yes, Ross deserved some time in prison for his stupid actions, but not the time he was given, that's for sure.

I feel like I'm becoming more and more pro-Trump since he won the election.

He mentioned Ross before, which is probably why this is in the polymarket. None so far tried adding Biden pardoning Hunter.

The election made polymarket the most controversial market even when there are projects alike before it. Somehow I wanted to try betting but there is more to sports betting platforms than in poly. Political events are always unsure unless you are an insider like Pelosi. If any government insiders re creating those bets, they re sure taking advantage.

bitbollo

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similar platforms were already offerings these kind of "exotic" bets.
Probably now Polymarket has the chance of a free marketing after Trump win and a better platform.
Using cryptocoins create an easy experience for all users. I will not surprised it these kind of bets will grow even with some spin offs or other platforms offering the same.

GxSTxV

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Definitely, we can say that Polymarket is the new hype in crypto gambling now and everyoneis talking about it, as bettors focus on prediction markets rather than just coins, traditional games or sportsbetting. Betting on events like Bitcoin reserves or political outcomes is gaining traction more than anytime after US elections. Truly, as you mentioned 34% chance of a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days shows the blend of crypto and speculative betting.

More people are definitely engaging in these markets, and some are even creating their own no matter if this will be prohibited later or the risks behind it. It's a unique mix of crypto and gambling, without the need of KYC process.

Myself, knowing that I quit gambling, I would like to invest in something about the success of this market, such as specific coins related to Polymarket, isn't it better than gambling inside this platform itself?

salad daging

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Actually, the bet in Polymarket's “Trump's political promise” was created by Polymarket itself or someone else made it?

Not betting in Polymarket bets to buy options, because I myself don't pay much attention to news about US politics anymore, except for the last time I saw that Trump would create a bitcoin reserve, that's all but I see the chances are still low as the picture shown.

Maybe those who like political news will be happy to buy options to bet on Polymarket.

Betwrong

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Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

~
Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump

~

Wait, what? More than 50% chance that Trump in his first 100 days will pardon Ross Ulbricht?

I didn't know that Trump was going to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. I personally think that would be great. Yes, Ross deserved some time in prison for his stupid actions, but not the time he was given, that's for sure.

I feel like I'm becoming more and more pro-Trump since he won the election.

kotajikikox

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Quote from: Sanitough on December 23, 2024, 08:26:11 AM

Those in the market are probably betting on events that are likely to happen, so for me, I see Polymarket more like a source of news where I can check the current trends.

Is it really the best platform to check for news? A lot of these are only rumors and doesn’t really have any valid basis which is why a lot of people call the bets on polymarket stupid because they are betting on things that may not even actually happen in real life.

Quote

But if it continues to grow in popularity and eventually offers better odds for sports betting, it could definitely attract a lot more bettors.

They’d need a good system with sports betting but I would assume that they’ll continue having “stupid” bets even with sports. Probably events that so absurd it won’t even be considered as an official gambling event.

Akbarkoe

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It's getting more and more Polymarket in the availability of gambling bets, this includes the policies that Trump will bring with the US in the future, it's ridiculous what they offer to bettors.

But what they bring up about the policies that will be taken is interesting politically and betting, and I seem to be more and more tempted by political betting in the future, with economic issues and major policies in the US sphere.

Fivestar4everMVP

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Quote from: Davidvictorson on December 23, 2024, 10:14:59 AM

This goes to say one thing in my estimation and that is everything and anything can be up for betting no matter how stupid and silly it sounds. My thoughts on this is that Trump is a pretty popular person and are the people starting these prediction actually Americans? Because to the best of my knowledge unless something has changed, Polymarket bets blocked access to US customers since 2022. Secondly, if they are Americans, what is the probability that they are not going to in some way influence its outcome?

I doubt Americans aren't betting on polymarket, I mean if they are blocked, those interested among them can easily gain access to the platform through the use of VPN, since like I learnt that other day that the platform is kyc free.

On a platform that Americans are blocked from betting, and yet, over 90 percents of what is being bet on has something to do with America and her citizens, Americans will definitely influence the decisions and outcome of such predictions, since (like I said before), polymarket is said to be kyc free, so if the American use VPN to access the site, there is no way they are getting penalized in any way.
And let's not forget that polymarket was not known, until Elon Musk (an American) started posting screenshots from the platform on his X timeline during the US 2024 presidential election.

Davidvictorson

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This goes to say one thing in my estimation and that is everything and anything can be up for betting no matter how stupid and silly it sounds. My thoughts on this is that Trump is a pretty popular person and are the people starting these prediction actually Americans? Because to the best of my knowledge unless something has changed, Polymarket bets blocked access to US customers since 2022. Secondly, if they are Americans, what is the probability that they are not going to in some way influence its outcome?

Botnake

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Quote from: Fiatless on December 23, 2024, 09:56:45 AM

I don't know how trustworthy the polymaket prediction platform is. There have been accusations that they are engaging in fake wash’trading, however, it has not been proven true. They are also under investigation by The Federal Bureau of Investigation which led to the house of its CEO Shayne Coplan being raided by operatives. Although it might be a politically motivated witch hunt because of its close accuracy in predicting the US elections. I don't have interest in some of the bets they offer, maybe it might change in the future.

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

Jawhead999

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Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

Obviously, the weird one is the only 34% chance for the Bitcoin reserve despite the deal being made on a crypto market, so with more bitcoin enthusiasts than normal gambling.

I think it's because Jerome Powell said the FED not want to own Bitcoin, so people are thinking Trump might not able to create Bitcoin reserve because of that.

It's quite surprising many people are believe Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht, I don't see him talking more about Ross Ulbricht after get won the election.

Quote from: Sanitough on December 23, 2024, 08:26:11 AM

Those in the market are probably betting on events that are likely to happen

More like to know analysis by average people instead of likely to happen, not all public perception will happen.

Fiatless

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Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

Is anyone taking bets here, buying options, thinking about giving it a chance or even creating his own market?

I don't know how trustworthy the polymaket prediction platform is. There have been accusations that they are engaging in fake wash’trading, however, it has not been proven true. They are also under investigation by The Federal Bureau of Investigation which led to the house of its CEO Shayne Coplan being raided by operatives. Although it might be a politically motivated witch hunt because of its close accuracy in predicting the US elections. I don't have interest in some of the bets they offer, maybe it might change in the future.

Gozie51

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I don't bet on this platform but if I were and I want to bet on any future occurrence of event be it politics or outcome of a football match or and bitcoin dominance percentage for a certain period for instance, I would first consider the direction of people's opinion and votes already (if there is a way to do that) because with polymarket, it is always the percentage of perception that matters. To be on a safe side on the bet, to check on the percentage of votes is a strong influence.

crwth

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It has definitely become popular, and the ability to make your own that interests other people is awesome. It's important to have this, IMO, and since Polymarket is providing it, it's a plus for me to use it. I haven't thought of something worth adding a market for, but if I do, I will.

Maybe other members could create a market with the members of Bitcointalk? Maybe provide the next user who has "Drama" in Bitcointalk? Cheesy

Sanitough

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Those in the market are probably betting on events that are likely to happen, so for me, I see Polymarket more like a source of news where I can check the current trends. I’m not really a bettor on this platform, so I can’t say much about it. But if it continues to grow in popularity and eventually offers better odds for sports betting, it could definitely attract a lot more bettors.

What impresses me, though, is the big volume in each market.. I’ve seen numbers like a million dollars. I’m just curious, does that volume reflect the total money already bet, or is it something else?

stompix

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I have a feeling that the new hype in gambling is betting on either stupid stuff or politics, with Polymarket gaining more and more attention from bettors keen on trading prediction rather than coins. And so, in order to concentrate the decision on both polymarket and gambling on political events and stuff combined, let's talk here about those, especially since some of the best do include crypto, like betting on the chances of a Bitcoin reserve being done in less than 100 days.

Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump

Obviously, the weird one is the only 34% chance for the Bitcoin reserve despite the deal being made on a crypto market, so with more bitcoin enthusiasts than normal gambling.

The other interesting market is the one about the US government shutdown:
https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-before-2025?tid=1734955582022

And this is where things get tricky, as you will have to rely here on the decision of the team behind polymarket, so was it a shutdown as some newspapers claim, was it not one as others claim since the bill was signed, and the entire drama where basically the decision is taken by unknown strangers and there is little you can do if you're not happy with the outcome.

Is anyone taking bets here, buying options, thinking about giving it a chance or even creating his own market?

Topic: Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics (Read 586 times)