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Topic: Possibility of Fork ever closer ??! (Read 935 times)

full member
Activity: 316
Merit: 100
March 22, 2017, 02:13:37 PM
#19
There's many companies now advising investors to pull out of trading for the time being ? Are we getting closer or it's not confirmed ?


us i know, is there no fork in the immediate future
legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286
March 22, 2017, 01:49:42 PM
#18
Yep yep, that ol' 2MB limit increase should do the trick!  It'll get us to the Visa-level TPS in no time!

As seen here:

https://imgur.com/a/M2fVb

/s  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 1660
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
March 22, 2017, 01:36:28 PM
#17
they have only 36% now, they never had 50%

Well, no. Of course there is some variance, but it is currently higher than you represent. 41.7% of the last 144 blocks (i.e., 1 day) is BU, plus 6.9% for 8MB (valid under a BU fork). Not quite half, but a far cry from a third.

legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1042
March 22, 2017, 01:26:42 PM
#16
Let's see, nodes crashed again. Hashrate for BU went from 41% to 37% in a day. Fix for bug is closed source. Looks like BU is starting to unravel, so I would say we are getting further away. A 51% attack would be a huge mistake and possibly force a POW change. The next few days may shed some light on this but I am personally starting to think this BU experiment is failing.

Closed source is the worst part about it. The experiment can't last forever. Another bug was found of course so we won't be seeing a fork in the immediate future that's for sure.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
March 22, 2017, 01:15:45 PM
#15
Let me reassure you : even though Bitcoin Unlimited neared 50% at some moment, they are now far from being the majority. The fork is becoming each day that passes less risky.

I don't see how near 50% is "far from majority".

Also the timing of the fork is controlled by BU, they don't have to fork until they have something like 75% majority. Then they can get guaranteed fork success.

they have only 36% now, they never had 50% if they had it was when the consensus was at 95%, even if they fork, BU will be preserved and your coins ar enot lost, you can use both coins on both chain
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 1660
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
March 22, 2017, 01:12:38 PM
#14
Let's see, nodes crashed again. Hashrate for BU went from 41% to 37% in a day. Fix for bug is closed source. Looks like BU is starting to unravel, so I would say we are getting further away. A 51% attack would be a huge mistake and possibly force a POW change. The next few days may shed some light on this but I am personally starting to think this BU experiment is failing.

Well, not quite. Rather than handcrafting a new response, I'll just copy this 85% overlap message here:

BUcoin crashed last night to 200 nodes after the the new bug was discovered,

Yes, a new bug was discovered by someone desirous of performing a DoS attack upon BU. This bug was exploited by such attackers to cause a number of nodes to crash. While a temporary inconvenience, we welcome this assistance in hardening the BU system before flag day.

Quote
and then the developers had the great idea of releasing a closed source patch.

Well, not exactly. I mean, if your definition of 'closed source' is delayed release of the source, I guess so. While I was not part of the decision process, it seemed to be predicated on the fact that immediate release would reveal the precise nature of the vulnerability to additional attackers. It was done to create a window for the patch to propagate.

Whether or not that was the proper course of action is something that can be debated. Indeed, it is still being debated within the BU community. But your characterization of 'they've gone closed source' is beyond the pale.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
March 22, 2017, 12:00:01 PM
#13
Let's see, nodes crashed again. Hashrate for BU went from 41% to 37% in a day. Fix for bug is closed source. Looks like BU is starting to unravel, so I would say we are getting further away. A 51% attack would be a huge mistake and possibly force a POW change. The next few days may shed some light on this but I am personally starting to think this BU experiment is failing.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1003
March 22, 2017, 11:02:00 AM
#12
Let me reassure you : even though Bitcoin Unlimited neared 50% at some moment, they are now far from being the majority. The fork is becoming each day that passes less risky.

I don't see how near 50% is "far from majority".

Also the timing of the fork is controlled by BU, they don't have to fork until they have something like 75% majority. Then they can get guaranteed fork success.
full member
Activity: 138
Merit: 100
March 22, 2017, 10:35:29 AM
#11
Thats great news! Investing companies are creating more FUD so that they can buy bulk Bitcoin and when everyone knows that they are fooled its too late and they need to buy back their bitccoin against higher prices. I love this market. When they say: muhh sell you buy, when they say muhh moon you also buy. BUY BUY BUY MOOREE

So you will be dumping the few Bitcoins you actually own, in order that you can buy back in at a lower price then?
newbie
Activity: 23
Merit: 0
March 22, 2017, 10:23:24 AM
#10
Let me reassure you : even though Bitcoin Unlimited neared 50% at some moment, they are now far from being the majority. The fork is becoming each day that passes less risky.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3014
Welt Am Draht
March 22, 2017, 06:59:19 AM
#9
you are obviously ignoring factual information. the chances of a potential chain split are equal to how they were when there was a massive amount of panic going through the market. just out of interest, what gives you the impression that the possibility of a fork is further away than before?

Signalling, yes. The node count is so unstable and flaky it's hard to tell what's going on.

As for sentiment, I don't see it becoming anything other than increasingly sceptical of BU ever happening. The sheer amount of vulnerabilities being turned up on a near daily basis and the fact that those signalling are all using Core to do it says enough.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 506
March 22, 2017, 06:50:23 AM
#8
There will be no hard fork, they're not idiots to destroy the name of bitcoin, there is no more a group of few individuals pumping and dumping and deciding everything like hundreds of altcoins out there, this is billions of dollars we're dealing here the stakes are extremely higher than any cryptocurrency.
I doubt if big miners ever risk their 12.5BTC at least every 30 minutes average, if they fork their chain will become a new alt coin and their price will drop to zero in no time and they've already lost block rewards something like $40,000/Hour so either they will continue to mine their new alt coin with much less market value or join back the main chain, but why would they risk that in the first place?
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
March 22, 2017, 06:35:57 AM
#7
No, the possibility of a fork is getting further and further away. at first there was like a 5% possibility of fork and now it is like 0.005% possibility or even less.

you are obviously ignoring factual information. the chances of a potential chain split are equal to how they were when there was a massive amount of panic going through the market. just out of interest, what gives you the impression that the possibility of a fork is further away than before?
hero member
Activity: 1456
Merit: 579
HODLing is an art, not just a word...
March 22, 2017, 06:19:31 AM
#6
There's many companies now advising investors to pull out of trading for the time being ? Are we getting closer or it's not confirmed ?

No, the possibility of a fork is getting further and further away. at first there was like a 5% possibility of fork and now it is like 0.005% possibility or even less.

and if a "company" or whatever imaginary thing advised you to pull out of trading bitcoin then maybe you should stop listening to them and use your own head.
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 501
Chainjoes.com
March 22, 2017, 06:18:51 AM
#5
emerging issues about bitcoin unlimited and fork because about transaction in confrimation is low time
and big sending fee, if problem about transaction can solved i think fork and bitcoin unlimited issue is closed
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1427
March 22, 2017, 06:02:28 AM
#4
There's many companies now advising investors to pull out of trading for the time being ? Are we getting closer or it's not confirmed ?


Don't let others get the better of you. So far nothing has changed compared to how things were days ago. In most cases it's fud that you are dealing with, all done to convince rookies to believe their nonsense and to sell as result. May I know what companies you are referring to? So far I have seen one article from a non Bitcoin news site, and they are predicting a doom scenario to follow very soon. I just laughed at how amateurish that article was set up, because it was obvious that the person in question just doesn't know what he is talking about.
member
Activity: 121
Merit: 10
March 22, 2017, 05:39:16 AM
#3
Yups play the game....There is some uncertainty for sure now, but there has always been that uncertainty imo.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
March 22, 2017, 05:24:15 AM
#2
Thats great news! Investing companies are creating more FUD so that they can buy bulk Bitcoin and when everyone knows that they are fooled its too late and they need to buy back their bitccoin against higher prices. I love this market. When they say: muhh sell you buy, when they say muhh moon you also buy. BUY BUY BUY MOOREE
newbie
Activity: 29
Merit: 0
March 22, 2017, 05:13:59 AM
#1
There's many companies now advising investors to pull out of trading for the time being ? Are we getting closer or it's not confirmed ?
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