Topic: Post-ETF effect: Has Bitcoin Bottomed yet? (Read 527 times)

I hope that the predictions you have made can come true. Of course, I am also waiting for the correction; before it changes and disappears, there will be an increase. Of course, this is good news for me, something I am really looking forward to, because there is an opportunity to immediately buy as much as possible before the moment changes, because usually the moment that occurs will soon disappear if it is not used as well as possible.
I totally agree with what you said. It really takes patience for something to happen; everything always takes time to achieve its goal.

I am not saying that it has hit bottom, because for me bitcoin has never hit bottom, it is always presented as opportunities to buy, in this approval of the ETF it is an opportunity that if the price drops more then it is bought, and when it actually does the ETF effect, well yes, bitcoin can go up a lot, I don't know if it can reach an ATH, maybe yes, but since it is about to reach the halving this year, that can become an accumulation and be able to make a great exploit of all.

Can you imagine that exploit would make the price reach around $200k? That would be incredible, that would be a sea of regrets that people didn't buy at this price thinking they were going to lose, that is what we have to face and theoretically things can happen like that, opportunities are how they present themselves once in a lifetime And they have to be prepared, if they let the opportunities pass, it is very difficult for them to have it again in those same conditions. It is very difficult.

Well the numbers for Thursday came out and they were +$400M for inflows. And most likely the flows for Friday will be large because GBTC was only like -$50M and we had a crazy day hitting $48K. So on Monday when all the ETFs update their AUM we will see how many inflows were made that day.

So far its looking like we might break the $40K, especially if we get almost +$500M daily of inflows. I am sure most people panic sold when we went below $40K or they sold during the ETF launch because they knew it was a sell the news event. The next 2 months should be interesting since the halving is coming up.

I'm often surprised when I read from people the remark I boldened in your reply, you mean no one will know what the market is doing? I think you are far behind when it comes to the market speculations, maybe you will have to add some learning to what you know, or else, you will always be neutral about it. Yet, some people know. It is true that what you do not know, you do not know, but I still urge you to learn because it is not that we can't know what we do not know, only that we do not give attention to it. The Bitcoin market is one of the easiest markets I've come across, it only needs your patience and good support and resistance strategy, which if used with the right price action, the accuracy of your predictions will be so high.

For me, this year, the two important levels aside from the upper ones are $40,243 and $43,606, and you can see what the market did around them. The market was so unrested around these levels and once breached significantly with a daily close above them, what happened? The market spiked higher. The last one was this week, I think on Wednesday when the $43,606 was eventually breached upwards and the market closed above it. You can see what has been happening ever since then. And if you are conversant with my speculation, you would have read it all the time even as I mentioned this level as a determining point. The market is highly predictable, and if the halving would help, it is highly possible that the low of around $38,500 witnessed this year will be the bottom for the year. This is even as the needed correction has been effectively weighed. What is now the issue? I can't see any for now.

I agree that the approval of a bitcoin ETF is a wide open space for bitcoin's strong growth path but it is not characteristic of price volatility. After the post-ETF excitement, bitcoin actively retested the resistance levels of 40k, and 38k. it is certainly an optimism in the pre-halving cycle, assuming that the bottom for bitcoin could be 32k-38k then the opportunity ahead is huge. bitcoin has a strong possibility to break the previous ath in 2021, it is optimistic this year before making a new allh breakthrough.

Smart money is always slow. The adoption of ETFs has simply opened the floodgate for this money into the world of cryptocurrencies. It will take some time for this gateway to take effect. Therefore, we may well see the expected effect in March/April. Right now, new entrants are just starting to enter the game, but there aren't many big names yet.

So, let's clear some things up because some of you mix the short-term bottom with a cycle bottom. The cycle bottom is in and it happened in 2022, so don't get fooled by all these fools telling you that bitcoin is going to 10k or something because they are saying it because they hope for another black swan event like the one in 2020 during Covid19. They hope a black swan event will prove them right and they'll gain respect and social media followers, that's all.

The more important question is if the short-term bottom is in, meaning that the post ETF correction is over and we'll keep going higher after the halving. IMO the correction is over and I'm talking it by looking at both technicals and fundamentals.
According to TA we've broken the corrective trend line to the upside by going over 43k on daily charts.
When it comes to fundamentals, the ETFs have bought a lot of btc and so did big players like Microstrategy. There was some pressure from miners and GBTC but both are slowly dropping because both expect the spot price of bitcoin to go up after the halving, so people who couldn't wait another 6 months sold, but the ones who could held.

It's looking good if you ask me. I don't expect an ATH before the halving, but we should get one by the end of the year.

38k was the bottom but i do believe that it wasnt the bottom. Come to think that we dont have that ETF wayback into those previous years and its really that normal that we would really be having those pre-post halving
price movement on which it could neither be a pump or crash which we know that this is something that typical into this unpredictable space. Now that the price is starting to cling up. Then it is really that safe to assume out
that we would really be having those possible dumps before halving hits and after halving too. There's no way that we could really be able to know on whats the bottom.

Effect or not, we should really be wise on taking up decisions specially on whats the price in front of us, whether you would really be holding your position or you would really be
selling out to secure profits and make some buyback when it dips and then leave some moonbag afterwards, its your choice actually.! 

With what we have seen now, the market is already getting more stable than before and the accrued tensions have being relieved with what we are seeing in the recent market performance, we cannot give the conclusion on that short time impact as we experience bear after the approval of bitcoin ETF, the market is self sustainable without much impact from other economic activities than what it experience from within, this is why we see the recent surge on the market as bitcoin emerges on 44k USD value, this doesn't also mean that we may not experience more volatility before the halving, all we could do is to position ourselves more better with our investments.

Helly guys! I can see that Bitcoin is moving as planned judging by my analysis in the OP...Many will be smiling to their banks and wallets now... and I think that the asset has bottomed eventually which was the main context of discussion here. It wasn't easy though and Bitcoin first breached below the first reference price of $40,243 and wanted to move lower with a bearish price action. But since that wasn't the preference of people, especially this time when halving is fast approaching, the coin was able to breach the level upward again and maintain a stay above it for over a week, if not two.

But again, the $43,606 was another issue that it has been trying to breach for about a week now. Thankfully, the level was successfully breached yesterday and with a daily close above the level, and for the fact that the asset still preserved the bullish price action on the weekly chart among others. I can't but believe strongly that we might have bottomed at around $38,500 this year, with the focus fully shifted to the bullish side.

so far there has been no news that could move the price of bitcoin and it seems that investors are currently waiting and seeing what the next condition of the bitcoin market will be, whether it is heading to a good point or not. especially since halving day is approaching, it makes many investors just look at and hold their bitcoins, while making small investments to fill their wallets.

I also found it strange that the ETF approval did not see so much rise in price inline with what many people were expecting. But I will say what we saw within the period of the ETF is a clear case of market manipulation that characterizes the entry of institutional funds into any asset. The Bitcoin price trajectory is looking like one carefully control by strong hands that want price within a certain level for reasons best known to them. Other things being equal, the ETF approval was enough to lead to a massive surge in price, but instead we say massive dump in price. This is not a mere coincidence as I believe they want to keep the price low prior to the halving that is happening in April this year.

Now this type of news makes me wonder what these institutions considered as long-term! Why selling now when they had the opportunity to sell at 60k+? And am also wondering are they selling now to buy much lower or they are selling to exit the market, or they are only selling part of what they hold?
Honestly, when i see big companies like this one selling off their btc it's seem like they suddenly lost faith in the tech and looking to move to something more better perhaps.  

I would say it is doing fine so far, there doesn't seem to be anything that is making it bigger or higher. I get that it is not simple and I get that it will take some time for Bitcoin to peak, but we are doing fine.

The bottom was under 40k and that has already happened, we are already higher right now and I do not expect it to get any worse. It bottomed out and looking like it will do much better soon enough, that has to be one of the most important parts of the situation we have right now, and could very well be the issue that will get it going. I know that it will take a while for it to reach to bigger levels, but at the same time I think it has to be done in a way that would not be all that confusing, so we should keep it going higher.

Yes, you are so correct about this, and it will even help to shift the pricing dominance from exchanged and give it to the market like the traditional way of pricing in the financial market just like we see in FX, Gold and others. But factually, I have my reservations about this ETF of a thing. When it comes to Bitcoin, this is the market like never before, it has been speaking for itself and will continue to speak for itself. Also, Bitcoin is not new to any core investors anymore, it is either they like it or they do not, and these big guys do not hide their feelings in public, it is either they speak for it or speak against it. Again, Bitcoin is no more a child in this business, it was already in the mainstream of the financial market before the ETF, and this is why the so-called whales were not able to manipulate it as before or have that strong influence on it.

Bitcoin is now behaving more manure like many other old assets, thanks to institutional investors. All these happened before ETF, what makes you think that more would happen because of it, even when the big boys and the less privileged already have access to with or without ETF? Not that the ETF will not help, but I was just saying that it is just overrated and the effect can't be felt as people think in my opinion, and neither will the big boys whose ideologies do not align with that of Bitcoin will change their minds because of ETF. So, what is the big deal?

Don't mind me, just needed to elaborate on that!

They ETF could attract new investors, increase market liquidity, and lend greater legitimacy to Bitcoin as an investment asset in the crypto space or market.

Define "majority sellers".

We have a daily Bitcoin trade volume between 10 and 20 billion US dollars (according to Coingecko, today it was 19 billion). Every single trade has obviously a "buyer" and a "seller".
Miners get 144 BTC per day, which are currently (at $40.000) about 36 million USD. This is between 0.1 and 0.3 % of the total selling volume. (I ignore transaction fees, as they aren't relevant if we want to know about the impact of halving).

Of course, what supporters of the "halving scarcity theory" will always say is that a lot of this volume is wash trading or another short-term trading that doesn't really impact in the "scarcity" equation (demand vs supply). But even if 90% was wash trading, altcoin trading and other non-relevant categories, then miners still only account between 1 and 3% of sales. There are many other relevant seller categories, for example payment processors and merchants (which need fiat), hodlers taking profits, mid-term and long-term traders searching for opportunities etc.

I don't say a halving is totally irrelevant. The first halving was very relevant for the price evolution, because it began to drive out "home miners" (above all "laptop/PC miners"), and people had to buy BTC (or invest in expensive mining equipment) if they wanted to get them. The 2016 halving in my eyes also still had a significant impact on scarcity. It drove "supply inflation" down from about 7-8% to 3-4% (per year), which is significant. But since the 2020 halving Bitcoin has less "supply inflation" than major fiat currencies, so any further reduction isn't really that important. In the 2024 halving we'll go down from 1.5-2% to 0.7-1%.

Taking into account these quite low numbers, for me it seems reasonable that other events, such as the ETF approval, technological advancements which boost adoption, or generally "sentiment"-related questions, are much more important than the halving event.

I also don't dispute that on the whole, Bitcoin should become more scarce over time (demand getting up, supply down), due to the rigid emission scheme (if all other parameters on the demand and supply side stay the same*), and that is of course extremely bullish for the long term and explains Bitcoin's steady growth quite well. My problem is the exaggerated importance some people give the halving event itself (above all the "S2F folks").

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*In the very long term, when everybody owns Bitcoin, this may change, but the supply reduction due to key losses etc. should be then enough to compensate for it as the block rewards will be totally negligible.

I think with so many coins set to hit the market when mtgox finally does its distribution, that will have to mark the bottom. I suspect we’ll see obvious signs of capitulation with a volume spike before the price can go up again in a big way. They just have so many coins to distribute, it’ll have to be a major market event.

I'm seeing this correction to likely be the last opportunity to get Bitcoin cheaper, recall what happened back during the 2020 last Bitcoin halving, the “Corona virus market dump”, and that was the last lowest level that the market saw and after which Bitcoin skyrocketed in the price and created a new ATH we have today $69k, so I kind of think this is the point where we are in this market cycle, the lowest level to watch is $31k level of support worst case scenario for BTC, I'm not in panic until Bitcoin begins to take out those levels, and should the price dip down to that point. Sometimes market don't go as fast as we expect, it takes time, patient is the key thing right now.

Let's say that after yesterday's ETF approval with the desire for a big increase it is still too early because it is unlikely to rise significantly in a short time, but it is better now to ignore short-term volatility because it will be overlooked now but in the long run it will still be brighter than looking at it now.

I also although the halving is getting closer but there will be no greater expectations, if it drops after the halving it will not panic because this will become a habit we ignore again and continue to buy bitcoin at low prices.
If we look at the short term we will be disappointed.
If in the long run you have patience you can say we are winners again.

The fire show may not be over yet, but the truth is I don't really expect a super big rise after the ETF's approval. So far we already know how the market will react after the ETF is approved, however, the long-term prospects for bitcoin investment can still be expected. Ignoring short-term volatility is a good idea right now, even if the market sometimes looks manipulated and filled with panic selling.

I don't really care how the market performs in the short term especially ahead of the halving which is reportedly going to happen next April, but the long term outlook is something I am looking forward to. Especially in terms of building a portfolio, panic selling and high selling pressure can now be utilized optimally, of course because there are discounts that are a shame to miss.

That adds truly, and it is normal, who will be selling their coins eventually if there is FOMO in the market, a situation where the market is extremely bullish? It's practical that investors are not willing to commit more money to the market while a sizable amount is also being liquidated gradually, and not only the Grayscale-related liquidation alone which people are always pointing toward. All is due to the market sentiment. People overhyped the ETF of a thing and made Bitcoin rise hugely, the effect in reality often happens in the reverse when the actual expectation (approval in the case of ETF) is achieved. A situation where the market tends to retrace back its steps a little just like what we are seeing now, but coupled with the prevailing bias/sentiment of the market which is negative. I believe the market will continue to be pressured staying below $40,243 until further notice.

Well, I saw the ETF backfiring on Bitcoin as we see now, people are only too expectant, but it's not always so when the needed reaction has been priced in already. This is the case of Bitcoin in relation to the ETF saga, ETF is not an automatic means to move Bitcoin higher, there must be cash volume to back it up. In this case, did people move in money? So it can't do that bullish miracle. The gist is that people actually moved in the money they should have moved in after the approval before the approval due to FOMO. When it was eventually approved, people were sceptical and FUD dominated the market which afterwards caused the downsizing which was also aggravated and emboldened by the Grayscales' sales.

As for your reference on the chart, I've given the condition already where $40,243 is the immediate reference point. Anything can happen on support and resistance levels be it fake or real which calls for caution before deciding based on the levels. In this case, the market can however move above or below it regardless of the initial rejection or false-breakout it suffered. What is important in this situation is to continue to monitor the level with price action and other strong strategies that can confirm a final stance of rejection or breakout.

Those who have been in crypto space for a while knows this was expected and saw it coming already because there has to be correction phase and fluctuations but these are temporary as you mentioned and I don't see any major set back but there would be fear and panic selling if the Bitcoin dips below $30k which I don't think will happen at one go. As I type this Bitcoin is approaching $41k which is a good recovery and those who had sold in last few days will regret. I think it's time we learn and shouldn't repeat mistake of panic selling as we will see such corrections very often until the bull run.

Based on my technical analysis  looking at the price around $40820 where red arrow is drawn, you can see some rejection around this area  from the wicks & by looking at the left which says bearish pressure is losing momentum and sooner or later the bulls should step into the market which should push price up..

But honestly I didn't see price dropping after the ETF approval as I believed that demand will be there as the buying of Bitcoin would start in readiness for the ETF trades but the opposite happened...but once the dust settles we certainly are going p, better believe that!!

Indeed I think this is having an impact, but only in the sense of accelerating the inevitable correction from the event. I'd otherwise factor this into the ETF selling event though. Personally, I thought it'd take around a month before reaching $40K, with more re-tests of >$44K prior to a sustained correction, somewhat similar to summer 2019 when it took a few weeks before finally breaking down to lower levels.


Also agree that ETFs are certainly bullish for Bitcoin, just not in the immediate term as we've already seen. It usually takes a few months for these new launches to "settle" in price before there is substantial demand, so this is also what I'm anticipating. I think it generally helps reduce the chance of black swan events into the $20K levels, if there is generally higher liquidity in the markets.


I'm not so sure about that. It seems like miners are still the majority sellers of BTC, and this is likely to continue, until it is no longer the case. So halving their supply to sell is certainly bullish, even if an increasing amount of miners revenue is coming from fees, especially when there is a spike in the mempool. I'm actually as bullish, if not more bullish, for this upcoming halving than the previous one personally.

Overall, I'm only really bearish for about 3 months, but a lot can happen in that time-frame. Either price correcting to $30K support (another -20%), or otherwise more of a black swan event to $20K. Already price has corrected -20% within 2 weeks, so I don't see it as unreasonable that price could correct another -20% within a few months leading into the havling.

I agree quite a bit that the current chart patterns mostly look like 49k was a local top and now a falling wave is to be expected. However, on a fundamental level, there are some elements which might lead faster to a substantial recovery.

First, there is quite much evidence that apart from the "sell the news" effect, it is quite likely that at least part of the price reversal was caused by the sales by Grayscale (and other financial actors), which means that there was an unique event being responsible for some of the downtrend, which is not likely to continue for much more. I think 35k is possible, but not too likely.

Second, on a fundamental level the ETF decision is clearly bullish, even if I don't think it is enough to "save the bull market" on its own, but it means that demand should gradually be picking up once the major investment firms take a decision. Of course, there could be some confusion due to the present dip, but if we see the price again more firmly in the 40s there should be more and more convinced new investors - the same thing could happen if Bitcoin falls fast to 35k or lower where many could smell a good entry point.

Third, the outlook for riskier assets like Bitcoin looks at least much more positive than 2022/23 in terms of decreasing inflation and interest rates. There might be some speculation around the exact date of the interest rate cut in the US, and some observers think this might occur later than expected, but on the whole, I think there are few elements really putting into danger the quite positive picture the markets expect for this year.

And as you mentioned the February 2020 candle, I think it's quite clear that the extreme crash which occurred this year was greatly amplificated by Covid, and without that event, probably the $20k would have fallen much earlier in 2020. Probably earlier than that year's halving.

There's also the 2024 halving, of course - while I think on a fundamental level halvings since 2020 are overrated as miners aren't really important on the BTC market anymore, I'm almost sure it still has psychologic effects.

ETF situation will eventually happen, maybe it is not happening right now but it will eventually happen, and until that moment we will keep seeing those news. It could be today, tomorrow, a week from now, a month from now, a year from now, nobody knows when it will get accepted. This is why we keep seeing news.

Moreover, just recently, they tweeted about it and put up a page on their website, and then said they got hacked, that could be true, that could be some moron who works there, OR it could also be just them trying to meddle with the market and make it go up and down so that they could make more profit. This is why it's quite important to keep up with the markets, we could suddenly start to go up if there are any improvements on the ETF topic as well.

More of less agree with your price estimates. For me, $41/42K was very much a "line in the sand" for the bulls, as it's the volume support as well as horizontal support for the past month, so below that I didn't see any support until around $38K (previous consolidation and volume support). Now we are approaching this level, I'd be surprised not to see a bounce back to previous support, in order to test it as new resistance. Price is also approaching oversold levels on Daily chart, so while the flip to bearish is quite clearly bearish, I'd expect a bounce before further downside, especially now a correction has reached -20% with little to no relief rally.

So far, overall, everything since the ETF launch looks like textbook market trading. There was a sell the news event creating the largest bearish wick on Weekly candle since June 2019, followed by an anticipated correction based on that extremely bearish signal. The 50 Day MA failed to act as support, as did the Ichimoku cloud on this time-frame, and now the RSI & CMF have turned bearish, which are very much sink with each other (price strength & buying pressure). This significance being that these were all bullish for the past 3 months, so the 3 month uptrend (since October) is very much over now, that much is clear enough.

Best case scenario will be finding support around 200 Day MA around $35K, but failing that $30K seems very likely, where there is considerable support, in order to retrace back to pre-ETF hype levels. A bounce from around $38K will likely get speculators excited, but I only see selling occuring above $40K as opposed to a continuation of a bull trend to new yearly highs. The damage has very much been done, as it was second week of Jan. Don't even get me started on the Monthly time-frame, there's still around a week to go, but naturally it looks atrocious, only further confirming a price reversal, so far reminds me of Feb 2020 candle.

Just Effect ETFs only. Maybe in this moment we need now is to buy additional coins on spot. Be aware of back pressure. However, for spot trading it will be fine, but trading futures is very risky. Currently, my view is that Altseason will be coming soon.

I wasn't expecting a big rise after ETF since it was mostly empty hype without an actual direct and immediate effect on the price but I was expecting a small rise at the very least. With the drop out of nowhere and without reason the only conclusion is market manipulation and panic sell specially when you consider that we are at the pre-halving-period which is known to be a bullish trend!

Has it bottomed? Probably not but the dump doesn't seem to have the biggest strength to continue for that long.

IF you zoom out



Rumors about ETFs started in October, when the price was at $27,000, and from there the price continued to rise, reaching $49,000. The price almost doubled due to ETFs, and it is healthy to see a correction in this price. The correction may lead us in the short term to $37,000 to $35,000, but inevitably To be a starting point for a new rise, as it is unlikely that we will see $20,000 again, and after the price rise, it is unlikely that we will see $30,000 again. Start worrying if we drop below $27,000 and not $40,000.

Has bitcoin bottomed yet right now? interested question after ETF bitcoin approval and for the first time this year bitcoin broken the support price until $39,400, usually have prediction with bottom or support bitcoin price around $40k but can't stable before bitcoin going dump drastically with ETF effect. Do you have assumption behind ETF approval have manipulation make bitcoin have going to lower price.

Unfortunately, the acceptable ETF bitcoin approval have more negative than positive effect looking bitcoin trend keep going down since first time ETF approval published. Still can't predict until how much bitcoin lower price again before bounce back to higher price and reach another new highest price for this year.

It seems like the $40,000 psychological support has broken, and currently the price of Bitcoin by the time I'm posting this is at around $39,700.
I think it's too early to say that we will see Bitcoin staying below $40,000 since we are only seeing this happening for a few hours only, but looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin base on what OP has shared, it seems like Bitcoin will continue to go down in the upcoming days.

It seems like the acceptance of a Spot Bitcoin ETF has more negative effects towards in the market than positive. I think Grayscale dumping some Bitcoins have an effect on this (correct me though. Nevertheless, I expect a more bearish weeks for the crypto market.

Well, every dip is an opportunity, so take this opportunity to buy more Bitcoin at a lower price.

According to this Coindesk article, the biggest selling pressure could be over (or close to over) though.


Nonetheless, the selling could continue a bit, but not caused by such events, but by trader psychology. Now that we're already seen dips below 40k, some will wonder if a bearish wave pattern is forming, and may be cautious with new buys. I think also the fact that the ETF top was close to the psychological barrier of 50k may play a role.

I was honestly surprised by the market going down after the ETF approval. It's either a prolonged correction or something else that regular crypto enthusiasts might not be aware of. In such times, the key is to stay calm and wait until the ETF market adjusts to the new financial asset. After all, it primarily involves traditional finances and companies. Bitcoin is something new for them, so they are likely approaching it cautiously. Patience is crucial in these situations.

Not really shocking, they've been able to accumulate when Bitcoins price is still $20k+ then what would be expecting? of course they would really be deciding on unloading their bags on which it would really be just that normal that they would really be that selling those coins for profits and its none of our business on how they would really be handling their coins. Even if we dont like for those coins to be sold
then there's nothing we can do if they have decided on getting profits which its a typical thing and easy money considering that they had bought on the bottom or much cheaper.
We do know that fundamentals doesnt always work crypto on which it could neither effect or not the market positively or really just being neutral.
Bottom? Everything hasnt bottomed yet, we should wait pre-halving and post halving season on which these are the times or moments where extreme dips happen.

It will probably bottom when they don’t sell $500M worth of bitcoins every day. So far every day it’s been half a billion. We are able to absorb most of this with the inflows from the other etfs but eventually these inflows will start to decline more and more.

So they either need to sell less or the market needs to buy more of the shares for the etfs to generate enough inflows. It’s looking very bearish especially at the Asian open and we are just dumping towards the $40k area.

Without that much technical explanation about what was happening. I'll apply the logic about going up and low.

Like when the market's high, everyone should expect that there's an upcoming drop. In short, if something comes down then it should come up anytime soon.

If Bitcoin has bottomed already, we'll start to see the newer higher lows soon but before that there's the halving coming soon and it's the same with the effect of Bitcoin Spot ETF that it will take time to impact.

I also predicted a bearish trend in the first quarter of this year but the hype around the ETF approval wanted to shift the focus of the market following a regular pattern of past trends that before halving the bearish sentiment takes effect. Right now with this market swing been caused by some institutional sales like Garyscale we need to relax to understand how the market reacts to it. The selling pressure is definitely settling in but still the $40k support level seems firm to be broken but if this sell power persists then we might be at seeing it breaking that support as others predicted above. The upward trend line has been broken out by bitcoin and a retest has been done but if another retest is done again and the trend doesn’t go back into the trend line then the &40k support will be broken and a new $38500 -$37000 new support will be set

The "Bitcoin ETF approval" hype has already been consumed by the market and the traders right now are selling and taking the profits.
I expect a stagnant/bearish market in the first half of 2024 and a post-Bitcoin halving bull run in the second half of 2024.
There's nothing to worry about, even if the price drops down to 30K USD. The market will have more bull runs this year.
I think that historically(except the beginning of 2021) January and February aren't very bullish months for Bitcoin. I know that such historical comparisons can't be always accurate, but some traders keep paying attention to this kind of data.

Does anyone know how we can track how much BTC Grayscale has sold so far? I know how much colder potentially be sold but no idea how much has been sold so far in order to realistically know when to expect buy pressure to pick up. The temporal downtrend will end when Grayscale finishes selling BTC. We'd have interesting times ahead. I'm even surprised that BTC is still above the $40K level. It should be somewhere around $35K judging from the selling pressure in recent days.

Buy on strengths rather then the hope of ceased weaknesses.   We can go sideways while not really resolving anything, at present I'd put us into a downtrend until proven otherwise.  Reasoning being multiple fronts or questions over momentum and resolution of the selling as OP  mentions.  So since the 8th of Jan its possible to draw in a downtrend that though challenged has not yet been negated fully, wait for that to play out before assuming we can resume upwards.  I think we face multiple hurdles in that respect still.

I think there will be more minor dip, if I'm not mistaken, CME’s Bitcoin futures contract which expires every last Friday of the month, is going to put a lot of selling pressures this 26th. So not to burst the bubble, who knows, maybe we can go as low and break $40k again, just saying.

If the price will not go down, or there will be no selling pressures, then good, but from what I have observed, when we are close to CME or even CBoE expirations, regardless of Post-ETF effect, prices will go south.

I don’t see us reaching the bottom already. The market is still very much volatile and that can be said from the massive sell off. ETF will still play a significant role in this market, maybe not now but very soon before the halving will take place. The direction it is going now was now expected by anyone and when we are all carried away from the thought of it that is when I think it will show its true effect to the market. As we await the halving and not knowing when the bottom will be reached, it is better to continue accumulating before it recovers and start going up in price again.

it hasn't bottomed yet that's what they say. some analysis i've read was that the bottom price could be $32k. if what they are saying is true then there is a chance that a huge dump will come before the bounce that will trigger the massive bull run.

i think it will take weeks before the price bounce. it's a gradual decline in price that is torturing holders on whether to decide to sell or not.
here's a good example https://twitter.com/naiivememe/status/1747997275887136938

I never expected bitcoin to act anything otherwise to what it current price and market conditions are, many times, it is proven already that bitcoin doesn't follow any particular directions and at that, bitcoin would just act accordingly to what pressure the market positions brings it ways.

So it was just based on speculations that many believe that bitcoin ETF approval will trigger the market uptrend, well bitcoin is not a rocket science tools and for that, bitcoin mostly never follow the hypes and trends but then this can have a long terms effects on the price of bitcoin in the long run.

I don't think we can assume bottoms in the near future until Grayscale sells whatever amount of BTC they need to sell. Safe to assume that they've been a good chunk of the sell pressure we had since few days ago; and the selling should continue on Monday.

From my analyses, if there would be any bear market that will significantly make bitcoin to stay below $40000, the price will still likely bounce back above $40000. But if it continues and stay for a long time without bouncing back or getting below the price several times, more bearish market may get the price fall to $38000 but which might get to $36500 if the bears continue to dominate. But I can see another resistance at $38000-$38500.

But bitcoin price is not predictable, anything can happen, the price might fall more, but the chance is less likely. But if bitcoin the price fall more, it is highly predicted that the price will never fall below $30000 ever again even if it falls to $30000.

The best that can be done is to DCA so that you can buy at varying price. I do not think the price of bitcoin will increase for now. What we are waiting for now is halving and its positive effect on bitcoin price.

The Bitcoin ETF saga of approval/rejection has finally been put to rest as the "approval" finally has it. But the market has never greeted it with much excitement as it sold on that very day of approval but rose sharply to hit a little above $49,000 the next day before plummeting ever since then. This is no doubt a short-term setback for Bitcoin even as we expect the positive effect of halving on the coin. Also, I hope that this short-term bearish trend, (perhaps I should call it a correction of the main bullish trend) will not grow into a more determined bearishness that will put the coin under further pressure.

As it is now, since last week, I knew that Bitcoin would fall but I expected it to be held by the support level of the 1D Fibo level of 38.2% at $40243 as you can see on my chart below. The market hit the level yesterday and sharply rebounded to record a daily high of $42,143. This indicates that it respected the level and buyers pended their position at the level or closer levels. A sustainable bullish price action above the level, in my opinion, might be the end of the recent bearish view and will bring about the resumption of the whole bullish trend to retarget above $49,000.

But first, the resistance level of the 1D Fibo level of 23.6% at $43,606 must be successfully breached higher, while a daily close above the level will ascertain it. However, a successful breach of the 1D Fibo level of 38.2% at $40243 will cause more bearish pressure that will eventually unveil $37,519, which is the 1D's 50% Fibo level before any bullish consideration will ever be possible.

This is my view guys. What are your views about the current Bitcoin status?