And what are you thinking they will do with this one block that they create? To do anything destructive they would need to have the ability to regenerate old blocks that are already part of the blockchain or sustain continuous control over all new blocks. Generating a single block makes you a miner, not an attacker.
An attacker with 25% capacity might be able to notice a tie and then continually exploit it by causing subsequent ties. He could connect to every node so he's aware of exactly when someone else finds a block, and send out his own at that time (he has found one by now with p=0.5), to generate another tie. So, the probability of him generating n blocks in a row would be (1/2)^n; e.g. he'd have a 1/4 chance of controlling two blocks in a row.
How many blocks does an attacker need to generate in a row in order to cause trouble?
these two transactions are similar to what happens when there is a "tie" on blocks:
http://blockchain.info/tx/5ae820ef31cc5a3d1a34f7373d0b675cacc74786c160317d8648c24933f55874First Seen 2013-03-08 11:04:13, relayed 1566
http://blockchain.info/tx/7a6a8ea2c4b2eed6b5ceee2d1b3783e293f00773a6d7f9cc5ac106b826efd49dFirst Seen 2013-03-08 11:04:13, relayed 63
not really much relevance anyway. what is someone going to do with this evil tie breaker block? maybe if it was an evil tie breaker block followed up by another 5 or so.. anything w/ improper transactions would get turned down by 99% of nodes (if snoopy is running somewhere, it'd grab it)
but really the closest you'll get to ties are when some pool with a well connected bitcoind is a few seconds later than one without.. btcguild comes to mind, they've had at least two clear losers a few seconds and a few transactions earlier than some other pools, but got lucky by getting next block anyway.. p2pool would be another good example (depending on who solves it)
(oh, in case someone doesn't look at the transactions themselves instead of the node list:
#1
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/59188147/5ae820ef31cc5a3d1a34f7373d0b675cacc74786c160317d8648c24933f55874#2
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/59188145/7a6a8ea2c4b2eed6b5ceee2d1b3783e293f00773a6d7f9cc5ac106b826efd49dcrafty.. i guess... the 145 one was actually sent first
.. oh, is it just me, or did satoshi dice really get owned there?