Topic: Potential events that can initiate next bitcoin rally (Read 429 times)

Seeing the global economic situation which is still sluggish like now, of course it is very difficult to see events that can pump Bitcoin apart from halving, the number of countries opening tenders to legalize Bitcoin is not enough to make people panic buy, it looks like the end of this year the price will be around $30k.

Another news drives the possibility for the spot ETF to be approved higher.  The US Congress made a call to SEC to approve Spot ETF.  This may give pressure to SEC to give in and approve Spot ETF requests.  If many of these requests are approved, then we might see an exponential growth on Bitcoin price because these approved Spot ETF will have their service activated almost at the same time creating huge demand to the Bitcoin market.

In my opinion, one of the events that could energize a bullish rally is the approval of bitcoin into the Blackrock ETF. The SEC deliberately delays events to set off a chain of events at the right time; the SEC is not independent in its decision making. Another event is the triggering of the process of distrust in fiat.

Isn't it obvious that if something is hard to obtain then more valuable it will be? The mining hash rate is gradually raising and if the price of Bitcoin touches our expectations then miners will make more money. Bitcoin halving is a fascinating concept that Satoshi came up with which became the key factor in determining the overall bitcoin market price action. A innovative application of a basic supply and demand theory.

Yeah right, halving should be something that makes us a bit more happy about it and we could definitely see it do very well. I understand that it may not be something that would be that easy to handle but at the end of the day we are going to end up with something that profits us one way or another.

I think it's quite important to realize that we are going to end up with some sort of money from it, but that is not going to be all that easy, it should be something that would be very hard to handle. I hope that people could feel fine about it because if the yare too late to buy it now, they are going to regret it later on when we break over the all time high price and by the looks of it, halving will make sure that it happens.

To understand that you need to understand the concept of ETF.


Halving will reduce the block rewards for miner so the price needs to be corrected so that miners can be profitable. Otherwise they will shift their mining power to other assets like BSV, BCH. Your fact about halving is valid.

I'm still struggling to understand how Bitcoin ETF approval will lead to increase in price of Bitcoin considering that the ETF itself does not correspond to owning real Bitcoin. For instance, if retails buy Nasdaq in the forex brokers through their trading platform, this is so insignificant to cause a rise in price of the shares of the company as what is being traded in the market is like the features. I understand that Bitcoin respond so well to fundamental, perhaps the news of ETF approvals can cause some gains in the price of Bitcoin but if this rise can be sustain by this news is what I'm yet to understand.

So many people  are already predicting that approval of Bitcoin ETF next year followed by the halving is enough fundamental to push Bitcoin to an ATH. While this sounds nice and cogent, realization of such projection still leaves so much uncertainties. My best guess is that the ETF approval will create the hype while the halving will create the imbalance in the demand that is needed to propel the price.

This is just SEC propaganda. How did the SEC protect FTX investors? The SEC is clueless about bitcoin because if it's a commodity, it should fall under CFTC, but somehow SEC doesn't want to allow CFTC to regulate bitcoin and Gensler said that himself that he will not allow CFTC to override SEC authority, so in other words Gensler has the support of the Biden administration and wants to delay anything regarding bitcoin for as long as possible, even if that means delaying a commodity that he has no authority over.

There's a game being played here and I hope all of you can see it. They are delaying the inevitable, because bitcoin will still be here in 5 years, but Gensler will not be the chairman of the SEC and Biden will probably be in a state of severe dementia, or dead.

I understand that the OP made 5 important points about what could drive the price of bitcoin up in the future. Of course I agree with all the points you mentioned, but it's not that simple.

El Salvador and several African countries seem to already have clear regulations regarding the legality of bitcoin, but in fact the impact on the demand of bitcoin is not very significant. Broad regulation might encourage more demand, but if it's just one or two third world countries, then I don't expect there to be much of an impact on the market. The growth of the industry and the growing confidence of institutional investors in this industry is something that will probably be equally good, meaning they have a large share in the market because of their financial strength.

Yeah, that's right, there are places that buys over a billion dollars worth of bitcoin and it doesn't impact the market as much as Elon Musk just tweeting about it. This is insane, and people are making a mistake there, but it's also the reality. We need to reach to a point where we could end up with a result that should be important to handle, and yes it's not that easy to handle it all but we need to end up doing it one way or another.

I hope that the best thing to do in this case would be making sure that it ends up with something that would be profitable, we need to end up with a good return that could end up with some profits if we could just focus on the real things that impact, and not hyped news that has no impact on the actual price.

Right now I think a catalyst for a rally in the short term would be some strength shown by Binance. The big cloud hanging over the market at the moment seems to be people thinking Binance isn’t solvent, so if BNB made a move upward, it would calm the market. Then of course there’s the ETF approval and even the mtgox distribution, which once those happen would be an all clear sign for major investors.

However, this is contingent on the extent of influence exerted by the individual or institution purchasing it. The repercussions are not a prolonged bull run; it's more akin to a pump. It's important to remember that anyone who buys Bitcoin will eventually sell it. If purchases by individuals or institutions are the catalyst for price increases, there will be a bearish market at some point.

The type of bull run that occurred aligns better with some of the points mentioned by the OP.

I agree with what you said about adoption.
But it's the government regulations that are holding it all back.
Maybe we can still hold Bitcoin but can't use it freely, Regulation is only limited to trading and there are even some countries that completely ban Bitcoin.

Some people have switched to Bitcoin and they invest their money in Bitcoin for the long term because they see a limited supply of Bitcoin and it is still not fully mined.
This will increase the price of Bitcoin even higher, rather than having to rely on traditional money that continues to be printed and produces crazy inflation.

The 4th Halving will be the next take-off point for Bitcoin to reach a new ATH.
Seeing how the past history of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Halving successfully printed a new ATH, and the halving that will occur in 2024 will be a moment that is quite much awaited which is likely to be a rally event for bitcoin.

All of this could have a positive impact on the next rally. But the most important part for me is adoption. If more people actively use Bitcoin and add it to their investment portfolio, the increase in demand is the factor that will most easily drive the price up. All other news will have temporary effects, but the actual desire to own and the incentive to hold will drive the real appreciation.
Many people still don't realize how important limited supply is. When governments are printing money without limits and people are trying to survive against inflation, they will have an epiphany when they discover Bitcoin's limited supply.

There are many factors to consider when we are expecting bitcoin bullrun but the only one that attract more focus is the Halving, the market will pump and then there will be an increase on the bitcoin market value, because the demand also will increase and then the intended blocks mined will constitute the available bitcoin in circulation after which the miner received the half reward of the mining, as you've said already, there are other microeconomic factors that help with this such as the bitcoin ETF news and development, though this is not highly reflected on a long go on bitcoin price, it only causes a little stir than the significant difference we have during the halving.

This kind of behavior from SEC is typical if you check their past references. They usually wait till their last date of approval for the ETF and it looks like their last deadline for the approval will be around Bitcoin halving. I take this as a bullish signal for the bitcoin market.

However, not all governments can instantly shake up the Bitcoin market with such news. Some smaller countries tend to have a more tranquil effect on Bitcoin's charts, with only a slight uptick in volume. We're aware that there are still many countries with small populations and high poverty rates. So, it's not surprising that some nations don't exert a significant impact on Bitcoin prices when it comes to adoption.

Most likely no etf approval this year. SEC for some reason already delayed 2 different etf applications which were scheduled to be reviewed in a couple of weeks. This is very unusual.

However with this in mind there is a chance it might get approved in Q1 2024. September is pretty much done and that leaves only 3 more months of the year. We all knew they were most likely going to get delayed anyways.

The regulation gives users a sense of security that if something bad happens with their investment there are some legal procedures that they can follow to seek assistance. Regulation usually builds trust among users that government authorities monitor the market and take action against illegal activities.

There COULD be an increased adoption when bitcoin will be regulated as the people who has been afraid their whole life to an asset with high volatility like bitcoin, BUT! Regulation means we are eliminating the very purpose of why Satoshi created bitcoin.
Some people might say, bitcoin cannot be the future unless it's regulated. Well, let's see about that.
Regulation may add more security to it's holders, but it will never going to prevent the spread of scams. We are just simply giving the authorities a control over bitcoin by imposing stricter policy and compliance.

I tend to agree with this because I personally witnessed the previous ATH in which everyone talking about Bitcoin wanted to invest.
It could be like this, when friends, family members, or colleagues are discussing their investments and the profits they are making during a bull market, it can create social pressure to join in and not miss out on the action that FOMO starts.

Because of this, it will create hype and bull markets often generate a lot of media attention.
News outlets and social media platforms frequently highlight stories of individuals who have made some profits during these periods and possibly, this increased coverage can make people feel like they are missing out on potential gains.

Regulation does not reduce scams or fraudulent activities. There are tons of regulated industries that have been involved in high profile scams, some of these include those which are most trusted by societies like banks, even the regulatory bodies havebee involved in fraudulent activities, and for this reason Bitcoin was created to give its holders freedom from centralization and regulation.

If institutions have plans to make an investment in bitcoin, they have already done most of it or are doing it right now. What they will announce is a portion of it so that they can create FOMO in the market, and retail investors and their customers will hastily run towards the bitcoin market to buy it.


Regulation is essential for institutional investment. Without it, institutional investors will fear coming to the market due to any unexpected change in policy against bitcoin.

Regulation and adoption of Bitcoins by any particular nation can really initiate the bull market for Bitcoins. I mean we already witnessed, how a bad news affect the price of Bitcoins, similarly, if something good happens about the coin, more people shows interest to buy the coin and hence this lead to increase in demand among the masses, and hence the price goes up.

Reliable institutions and individuals announcing their Bitcoin purchases will also positively affect the Bitcoin price. The substances you mentioned will have effects, but we cannot predict the magnitude of these effects.

I think the first thing that will affect the market is institutions starting to buy Bitcoin. If something like this happens and institutions start announcing these purchases one after another, there will be a lot of impact and the price will rise.

In order for the substances we mentioned to be effective, the market must expand. A situation is needed that will make many people invest in Bitcoin again.

Any positive news and events when used correctly and extensively can produce hype.  I believe the Bitcoin rally is created when the sentiment of the market is conditioned to be bullish.  So news and bullish propaganda can give birth to Bitcoin hype that can produce a market uptrend and if continuously injected with manipulative positive news, can result in FOMO thus this instance can give way to a Bitcoin rally that can possibly record a new series of ATH.

Bitcoin adoption and advancement in technology are the two factors that will contribute to the stability of bitcoin prices. P2p transactions will increase if more people begin to use Bitcoin, having more nations like El Salvador will be good for the market. Bitcoin halving and Bitcoin ETF will just bring the needed hype to temporarily push the price. If more advanced technologies can increase the speed of transactions, reduce the cost of transactions and make the system more secure, it will increase investment in Bitcoin.

Government regulations increase investors' confidence since some people will never invest in the sectors unless they have government guarantees. Some people want the bitcoin business to be regulated like fiat banks. Regulation is not bad but people should be given the option to choose between centralization and decentralization. People should not be forced to close their privacy.

Bitcoin Halving and the possible Bitcoin ETF approval by Blackrock are EVENTS.
Crypto adoption, crypto regulation and what you call "technological advancement" are not events. They are processes.
I'm sure that the BTC halving and the Bitcoin ETF approval(if approved) can cause some hype and even a FOMO phase, but I'm not so optimistic about mass global BTC adoption and the governments making better crypto regulations, which are in favor of Bitcoin(and the altcoins).
I expect the crypto regulatory frame to become even more restrictive and bureaucratic. This will make crypto adoption even harder than it used to be.
What do you mean by "technological advancement" in regards to Bitcoin? Do you really think that the scalability issue will the solved and Bitcoin will become even more user-friendly? I'm not an optimist about this.

I don’t really think regulation is a good thing for bitcoin. Bitcoin is a lot better without regulation. If they regulate it, we will have follow every new regulation when trading or using btc. Btc will become a government asset and it will be very unprofitable for every bitcoiner. I know it from experience, governments make everything worse. The less government there is, the better for the people. Governments make complex laws which confuse people. See the American tax code, it is almost impossible to follow. They filled every loophole to catch tax evaders and they ended up with this abomination. The same thing will happen to btc.

The FOMO will only come if bitcoin starts to rally and breaks the ATH. Right now most markets are weak. Sure the stock market indices look healthy but if you remove the top 10 companies on the Sp500 the actual gain is maybe 3-4% or so. Many companies are hitting 52 week lows.

We got bad inflation, rates might go up again one more time before year end, and we still got geopolitical issues to deal with. So with all this, I don’t see FOMO starting sometime next month or so.

I understand your concern and agree with the short term effects of ETF and halving. I think regulation holds the key to how bitcoin will evolve in the future. It can be in the top of technological advancement or an outlaw in the global finance. Without a distinct and amicable regulation real adoption won't arrive. 


People will perceive that they can ask for justice if something evil happens.

This is a good compilation of objectives for bull periods in bitcoin. Although the first one which is halving is the only concrete case that can rally a real bull period but the rest could just be a little bit more of sideways movement.


Although they are many people that do not want to hold there funds by themselves but if you look at the cases surrounding custodianship to other people the risk is more compared to when you hold the funds your self. This ETF companies seems more like leaving ones coin on exchanges not that they will lose it but what if the company faces challenges, that in turn will also affect the share holders, although it could be rare but nothing is impossible.
 


It will certainly seems like government regulated entities reduce scams but I don’t think it actually does reduce any crime because up till now the government banks are things scammers still use, although bitcoin is a new technology so it is where the scammers will be currently focused on but that doesn’t mean it is different from the other entities regulated. The government just spread this stereotype just to get bitcoin regulated and to tame or watch some people

The truth is that FOMO is coming. I can't see any upcoming real adaptations yet. Though adaptation won't be pre-announced and it does happen suddenly, we are unaware of any potential adaptation. Due to Bitcoin ETF and halving a FOMO coming, and the chart would start moving up. But I am not sure if it will last for long without real adaptation. ETFs don't help grow real Bitcoin since they're just contract trading. Halving doesn't really push much; it's just a FOMO; there is no logic to pump. Rather, miners will get fewer rewards after halving. But still, I want to be positive but realistic.

Bitcoin halving

Details: Bitcoin halving is the major event that has been happening every four years since its first halving in 2012 and will continue until the last halving in 2140. Bitcoin halving reduces the block rewards for miners and increases bitcoin's scarcity, which eventually leads to an increase in the price of bitcoin over time.

Impact: Bitcoin halving increases bitcoin's scarcity and reduces the injection rate of new bitcoin into circulation, which causes a major price appreciation for bitcoin.
 
Evidence: It is historically proven that after every bitcoin halving, the market rallies up and initiates a bull run. For example, after Bitcoin halving in may 2020, the price of Bitcoin went up almost 700%.


Pros:

• Reduction of inflation
• Increases demand
• Increase network Security

   
Cons:

• Lower mining rewards
• Increase volatility due to reduction of new bitcoin supply

Bitcoin ETF

Details: An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund that is traded on a traditional stock exchange. The Bitcoin ETF tracks the real-time price of bitcoin, which is issued by asset managers who purchase bitcoin from the spot market, bundle them together, and offer their customers shares of that bundled bitcoin. These shares are exchangeable on the traditional stock market.
 
Impact: Bitcoin ETFs are regulated by the SEC, so investors feel secure investing by thinking their investments are protected by law. Bitcoin ETF’s share is tradable to the stock exchange market, so some investors feel comfortable buying this share instead of real bitcoin, which needs to be stored and secured by the users.
 
Evidence: World-largest asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, WisdomTree, Invesco, Valkyrie like asset manager applied for the bitcoin ETF, and many analysts predict that it will be approved just before the halving.
 
Pros:

• Can be brought as a share.
• Regulated
• Tax efficiency

Cons:

• Investors can't hold real bitcoin.
• Higher fees
• They have no control over their fund.

Regulation:

Details: The regulation of bitcoin is still lacking in clarity, and Sec. is working on regulating this financial sector. Without clear regulation institutional investors will hesitate to invest in bitcoin for any possible downgrade.
 
Impact: Institutional investors will be more confident about investing in bitcoin. Merchants can accept bitcoin as payment from their customers. Bitcoin-centric fraudulent and scam activity will be nominal.
 
Evidence: The USA has already classified bitcoin as a commodity. El Salvador declared bitcoin a legal tender. Canada treats bitcoin like other commodities for taxation.


Pros:

• Increased investor confidence
• Reduced scams and fraudulent activity
• Institutional involvement

Cons:

• Centralization
• Reduced privacy

Adoption

Details: As more merchants start to accept bitcoin as a form of payment, their customers start investing in bitcoin likewise. This adoption has increased significantly over the past 3 years.
 
Impact: The ever-growing acceptance of bitcoin in the local market has spread awareness and adoption of it. Customers will hastily try to acquire more bitcoin, which will lead to a bitcoin price appreciation.
 
Evidence: According to VanEck, the price of bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and gold for the past 3 years.
 
Pros:

• Increased cash inflow.
• Reduced volatility
• Legitimacy in the open market
• Increased financial freedom

Cons:

• Slow transaction
• Security risk due to a lack of basic knowledge

Technological advancements

Details: Technological advancements in the bitcoin network will offer a more convenient environment for local businesses to integrate the bitcoin payment network into their businesses.
 
Impact: Upgrades in security, scalability, and interoperability will increase the number of bitcoin-centric startups and small businesses. Advanced smart contracts will allow bitcoin developers to create featureful dapps.
 
Evidence: To increase the scalability and security of the bitcoin network,  Covenants upgrade has been proposed, which will introduce more advanced features like Pre signed transactions, Mitigation of Double-Spending and programmable smart contracts in the bitcoin network. The SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUT upgrade will increase transaction speed and make it more cost-efficient.
 
Pros:

• Increased scalability and security.
• Introduce new use cases.

Cons:

• Increase network complexity

There are other possible scenarios or events that can occur and shift the market in a whole new direction. These are just some of the catalyst events that could happen in the future.