Prediciton markets | Bitcointalksearch.org

the13thsymphony

jr. member

Activity: 297

Merit: 1

Quote from: Reid on October 03, 2018, 02:55:34 PM

But remember that it is still a prediction.
There is always a possibility for it to go the other way which happens much that is why people are getting confused with what they will support.

That is true in a prediction anything can go sometimes you will be right or other time you are really quite off in it, however it can minimize ones risk if followed / done correctly and in most time it is just gut feeling.

Quote

In the end, it is your choice. Just do be careful on picking one. Anything could happen in the crypto world.

Also to add in this last sentence just remember this you can only either lose or gain from what you do in this industry and without any risk you are better off in another place, but just to let you know even if it is a different industry there are always risks.

Larva14

sr. member

Activity: 518

Merit: 250

Quote from: Abefe1989 on October 03, 2018, 04:51:34 PM

Presently the market is unpredictable now because the situation of the market is up and down

Yes the price value of cryptocurrency now in the market is not stable it's unpredictable and we don't know when it's up or down.

Efiraboy

jr. member

Activity: 73

Merit: 1

Quote from: ForkThis on October 03, 2018, 02:42:32 PM

Today I listened to a podcast that spoke about the prediction markets (the podcast was in the "Everything EOS", I was trying to learn about that chain, but they also spoke about this other topic).

So, the argument was that prediction markets were able to align the need of the people that were informed and prepared with the interests of the average Mike out there. So this is how:

- It has been proven that recurring to predictions in groups is quite successful when trying to predict results or events. For example, the winner of a race, the next president, etc...
- In prediction markets you have to "put your money where your mouth is". So you don´t simply say that "The L.A. Lakers will win", you also put a collateral, a bet basically on it.

That means that only people who have some idea of what is going on will "stake" and they will for sure try to get it right.

The only "coin" I know that deals with this is Augur, and I am interested in knowing about others.

Sometimes the purpose of all these things are just for them to pump the coin and dump it on the head of those that will fall victims. Don’t trust any prediction, the market can go the other way and wouldn’t be what they predicted. If you happen to get trapped in any coin, then it’s over for you cause there is no way you’re getting out, unless luck it’s on your side and same thing repeats again.

odolvlobo

legendary

Activity: 4466

Merit: 3391

Here is my understanding of how a prediction market works:

People bet on an outcome with the amounts bet on each side determining the payout to the winners. In theory, a prediction market works because the people with better information will continue betting against the people with worse information until the odds in the prediction market represent the odds given by the people with better information. If it works as expected, a prediction market makes an accurate prediction because the odds are ultimately determined by the people with the best knowledge.

Let's do an example:

There is a bet on the outcome of the flip of a coin and currently there is currently $100 on tails and $1 on heads.
A smart person who knows that the chances for a single flip are 1:1 would bet $10 on heads to maximize their gain in the long run -- the expected return would be $40.45, $90.90 for heads and -$10 for tails. Now the total bet is $100 on tails and $11 on heads.
A different smart person would bet $22 on tails to maximize their gain. Now, the total bet is $100 on tails and $33 on heads.
Eventually, the bet will be $100 heads and $100 tails because as long as the sides are not 1:1, a smart person can make money (in the long run).

In theory, it works. However, the success of a prediction market in reality depends on the existence of a sufficient number of people with good knowledge that are willing to bet enough money to counter the rest of the bets. But even in best case, the market can only be as good as the people with the best knowledge.

Abefe1989

newbie

Activity: 20

Merit: 0

Presently the market is unpredictable now because the situation of the market is up and down

Slow death

legendary

Activity: 3164

Merit: 1127

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

I confess that I did not understand this post very well, but I will respond anyway and I hope I am not spamming or ridiculing. Have you seen the reddit section of altcoins? in these sections people are making their forecasts of prices and if some newbie does not pay much attention can fall into error, but on the other hand there are people who post very interesting things, for example one day I had bought Siacoin and a guy told me that I had made a bad deal and he explained to me why he thought of it that way and I sold all Siacoins that I had and I confess that I made a good deal

Reid

hero member

Activity: 3024

Merit: 651

Quote from: ForkThis on October 03, 2018, 02:42:32 PM

Today I listened to a podcast that spoke about the prediction markets (the podcast was in the "Everything EOS", I was trying to learn about that chain, but they also spoke about this other topic).

So, the argument was that prediction markets were able to align the need of the people that were informed and prepared with the interests of the average Mike out there. So this is how:

- It has been proven that recurring to predictions in groups is quite successful when trying to predict results or events. For example, the winner of a race, the next president, etc...
- In prediction markets you have to "put your money where your mouth is". So you don´t simply say that "The L.A. Lakers will win", you also put a collateral, a bet basically on it.

That means that only people who have some idea of what is going on will "stake" and they will for sure try to get it right.

The only "coin" I know that deals with this is Augur, and I am interested in knowing about others.

But remember that it is still a prediction.
There is always a possibility for it to go the other way which happens much that is why people are getting confused with what they will support.

Stakes or bet. Yes, the one who believes in one project and talks about it too much means he might have some bet for it or there is already money included and he needs to keep on doing it just so to pull more investors or others that could also do the same thing as how he does it.
Again with a "but", be careful with FUD or fake news. It could just be one way to pump a token or a coin so that he could get out.

In the end, it is your choice. Just do be careful on picking one. Anything could happen in the crypto world.

ForkThis

newbie

Activity: 9

Merit: 1

Today I listened to a podcast that spoke about the prediction markets (the podcast was in the "Everything EOS", I was trying to learn about that chain, but they also spoke about this other topic).

So, the argument was that prediction markets were able to align the need of the people that were informed and prepared with the interests of the average Mike out there. So this is how:

- It has been proven that recurring to predictions in groups is quite successful when trying to predict results or events. For example, the winner of a race, the next president, etc...
- In prediction markets you have to "put your money where your mouth is". So you don´t simply say that "The L.A. Lakers will win", you also put a collateral, a bet basically on it.

That means that only people who have some idea of what is going on will "stake" and they will for sure try to get it right.

The only "coin" I know that deals with this is Augur, and I am interested in knowing about others.

Topic: Prediciton markets (Read 103 times)