The last poll results were down (>50%)
And the actual result was down too!
Topic: Predict market movement (Read 2014 times)
What did the poll looked like before the latest reset?
So the majority this time thinks its going up!
Based on it's unbearable stagnating activity, it will do one of these two things. I don't know which:
1) It will start rallying up and then stagnate really high for a week until bearish speculators think it won't go back down and finally buy overpriced coins. Once they've all bought all in, it will crash to $3-4 and stagnate there until the bearish investors think it's never going back up and sell.
2) It will have a happy crash to the $4s for cheap coins before going back to the 5s.
The longer it stagnates, the more likely #1 will happen.
I have a bunch of end of month expenses and unless it crashes to below $5 soon, I'm just not going to buy till first week of October after the beginning of the month crash is over with because it takes time to transfer out of Gox, then from Dwolla to my bank account.
1) It will start rallying up and then stagnate really high for a week until bearish speculators think it won't go back down and finally buy overpriced coins. Once they've all bought all in, it will crash to $3-4 and stagnate there until the bearish investors think it's never going back up and sell.
2) It will have a happy crash to the $4s for cheap coins before going back to the 5s.
The longer it stagnates, the more likely #1 will happen.
I have a bunch of end of month expenses and unless it crashes to below $5 soon, I'm just not going to buy till first week of October after the beginning of the month crash is over with because it takes time to transfer out of Gox, then from Dwolla to my bank account.
I think time to revisit this poll.
Last time the majority prediction was correct
Last time the majority prediction was correct
It is one of the great failings of investors and economists. To predict the future they grab data from the last X days and just extrapolate it. There were many justifications for bitcoins zooming up in price and many reasons given why it simply could not fall.
But that's hindsight bias. It's a logic flaw.
I wonder what happened to those who did large buys at 30+$?
I genuinely feel sorry for the people who got on board at that stage, investing directly or buying too much hardware thinking they could pay it back in no time
It really was almost a pyramid scheme at that point, people who just heard of it were just jumping on board and hyping it up as a get rich quick scheme with little understanding or interest in bitcoin, I remember reading on here before the parabolic rise, that people were worried that the increased price and media attention on bitcoin will attract professional traders that will manipulate the market up and down...
I don't remember who said it
I wonder what happened to those who did large buys at 30+$?
Where are those people that predicted 1btc / USD100 by the end of year? Maybe it was all a prop and they have cashed out @30.
It's hard to see that 1btc / USD100 prediction coming true now.
It's hard to see that 1btc / USD100 prediction coming true now.
It is one of the great failings of investors and economists. To predict the future they grab data from the last X days and just extrapolate it. There were many justifications for bitcoins zooming up in price and many reasons given why it simply could not fall.
I doubt the pundits sold at $30. They probably thought if it's $30 today it'll be $60 next month, and $90 the month after. Bitcoin went from $1 to $30 in 4 months. People got a little bit too excited.
Where are those people that predicted 1btc / USD100 by the end of year? Maybe it was all a prop and they have cashed out @30.
It's hard to see that 1btc / USD100 prediction coming true now.
It's hard to see that 1btc / USD100 prediction coming true now.
fast
For the short term (days) I see either going a bit lower or stagnation. It's difficult to say when this changes but I'd say fairly soon, so for the weeks to come I think going up is likely. For the months to come, going way up is likely.
Quote
Most people would like the market to move so that they can make money.
I used to be a holder, but it seems trading is the only option to recover some ground
I used to be a holder, but it seems trading is the only option to recover some ground
It really depends on what your "in" is. If it's from mining like mine then there are quite a few options depending on your power and hardware costs.
For example if you have a bunch of resoldered low power cards and pay next to nothing for power then holding is still a very valid option.
I have a more or less even split between this type of cards and regular purchased one so I generally do 50% for holding and 50% for trading to maintain a decent ROI on my purchased cards.
The above said my long game goes more or less out the window if prices rise sufficiently.
If you're buying in then you can play both games depending on your cash-flow especially at the levels we've been seeing in the last few dips.
Most people would like the market to move so that they can make money.
I used to be a holder, but it seems trading is the only option to recover some ground
I used to be a holder, but it seems trading is the only option to recover some ground
I'd say that we're gonna see some fairly heavy action and atm it's really hard to see which way it'll go.
For peeps going long (months) this is still a pretty decent buying opportunity though who wouldn't mind a little drop to make it even more attractive. There is simply too much stuff in the works (EU directive and Gox vs Bank in particular) for it to not have a massive upswing at some as of now unforeseeable point within the next 4-8 months.
For peeps going short term (hours and days) then volatility is what makes them tick, they'll be putting fairly heavy down pressure on it.
Oh and midterms well who gives a..... I don't really see them as a driving factor in the game.
For peeps going long (months) this is still a pretty decent buying opportunity though who wouldn't mind a little drop to make it even more attractive. There is simply too much stuff in the works (EU directive and Gox vs Bank in particular) for it to not have a massive upswing at some as of now unforeseeable point within the next 4-8 months.
For peeps going short term (hours and days) then volatility is what makes them tick, they'll be putting fairly heavy down pressure on it.
Oh and midterms well who gives a..... I don't really see them as a driving factor in the game.
Longer term (few weeks): We are likely headed lower to the $2.50 range and possibly lower.
Which way will the market move in next 48 hours?
Looking at the trend, after a lull, there is always a storm
For reason, please reply to the post
Looking at the trend, after a lull, there is always a storm
For reason, please reply to the post
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