Topic: Predict top and your selling plan during this market cycle. (Read 425 times)

I think it will already have a hard time reaching the $20k mark this year. I do not expect that much given the problem we are facing at this moment which affects majority of the economies around the globe. This I think is enough to tell that the market value of cryptos will not consistently increase, especially, at ease just because the price suddenly grew. If we are not having problems at this moment, I would probably believe at this moment, that the ATH will again be reached.Trading is indeed hard and is not something an investor or individual will lear in a single glance. It is a more active kind of investment which will require you to have or to be updated with regards to the market value of cryptos from time to time which would be quite of a hassle if you are not into it.

Obviously at the end of the cycle there will be a new all time high, lets take 30K but not based on any analysis just based on my prediction.But it is hard to reach as well due to the panic selling guys who are going to dump their coins who bought for low price especially when covid 19 outbreaks crashes the economy of the whole world.

About selling maybe a gradual one or complete dump based on how high the price goes before started to fall off.

Just because you get out early on a big bull run doesn't mean that you are doing something wrong.
The point of bitcoin trading is to make a profit and if you made a profit that is enough, you do not need to make a lot more than that.

I personally have made more than enough money during that period, I have sold even above $20k thanks to local exchange movements so I was pretty much out literally at the highest possible point during the ATH times, yet when you ask me I still say that I wouldn't mind selling at $10-12k during that time since I got in at around $2k, so that would be 6x profit compared to 10x profit, you can't really complain about making 6x profit, even if it means you missed 10x because you just made six times as much as you can, that should be enough reason to be happy about it.

Portfolio is definitely something like that, there is nothing wrong with small investment towards shitcoins and stuff like that, that is fine as long as you do not risk too much of your money. If you have 10 thousand dollars, have 5k bitcoin, have 3k ethereum, have like 1.5k or so good proper top 10 coin, but when it comes to another 500 bucks at the end there, you could definitely make sure that you could risk that small portion but with some luck that could turn out to be a huge profit, or 90%+ chance it would become nothing.

Bitcoin and ethereum itself with that 8k will make it to 10k worth very soon anyway, so the rest is there to make a bit more risky investments for a chance to make a lot more profit if you get lucky. That is just my thinking, maybe someone else likes more risk or maybe someone likes zero risk who knows.

Well, it is still a very risky endeavor, nobody can deny that it could work but also we could have a world where politicians are all helping people and doing what they do to make countries better and there is no corruption. Is that impossible? Of course it is not, but I haven't seen it in the past 2000 years (or even before), just because something is possible doesn't mean that it is probable, it just means that people are not doing something in betterment of the world but only for themselves.

Akon probably wants this to happen but it is not a one person thing hence I think there is no chance that people around him would make it work, they would probably want something for themselves and not for the people. All in all I would say it is quite important to not get our hopes up about this.

1. I expect 400-500% jump so something between 80 and 100 thousand USD as the top.

People who say the top will be 30 or 50 thousand are trying to sell in the middle of the bull market like so many people did in the previous cycles. When we broke 1000 USD for the second time we went to 3000 and stayed in the vicinity for months while people who underestimated the run were selling. Then we went straight up to 20 thousand.

2. Gradual selling. Maybe 10% every big level after 20 so 10% at 30 and 10% at 40 thousand and so on. After reaching 100 thousand I'd be still holding 20% to see where it gets and I'd keep about 50% of my profits ready to buy the dip.

Absolutely. When BTC is in a broad bull market (think 2016-2017) but trading sideways, money flows into altcoins. This can be observed over and over throughout history.

BTC's technical strength essentially keeps the market in "risk on" mode, pushing supply away from the BTC/fiat markets and leaving investors looking for ways to ROI off their BTC holdings. The altcoin casino is traditionally the fastest way to do that.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-on-risk-off.asp

This ends up creating a cyclical money flow dynamic like sector rotation, where money flows back and forth between the BTC and altcoin markets, while also pulling supply from the fiat markets, pumping all crypto prices. In this way, BTC and altcoins will always bubble together. The short term pumps just occur at different times.

About sector rotation: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/020305.asp

absolutely

It's possible one could happen without BTC itself doing very much such as at the beginning of 2017. A lot of people will have bags and if they can offload them that may totally change their attitude to a Bitcoin pump. Whatever need or pressure there may be could be taken care of by that.

If all of my goals could be reached by a shitcoin pump that would be far more relaxing.

Always set back up plans from time to time in case that you initial plan will be broken or havent met due to price changes.This is likely to happen from time to time due to unpredictable market.
We might be seeing a good run for now but it can turn out to be messy in a short span of time thats why im not really getting myself too much dragged on the hype or into the positiveness that we would reach
ATH faster than we do expect but to think that this would really be a hell of a bumpy ride and reaching out those levels wont really be that easy or would take some time.Each trader or investor would
have its own selling point and this do makes price corrections from time to time and the process would repeat yet this is how market works.

Interesting. What does June 2023 mean to you? Is this based purely on your mining cost and preferred ROI and investment time frame, or do you actually see those prices as technical barriers?

I'll be taking profit along the way but I never want to sell it all. I'm too worried about the mass adoption scenario:

all of us have goals , that's why we have Target price on where we will sell . Entering here without a goal is hard because you can get confuse and you will only sell on random times . Being a good investor is how you follow your plan .

 You can't say that we should trade instead of investing because whqt if investing is our passion and there are people that believes that trading is hard  .

That's really huge fall if in case that this dumpers pushed the value to that level, but for now we are
still seeing good market movements.
Bitcoin is now trying to reach back $12K and if this new level able to break then it will be more exciting
to see where bitcoin will be heading.
A matter of trust with your own analysis and with how you judged your investments, there's a need to
have a good set back plans.

If you are trying to see where you should be selling, that means you are not going to really be a good investor, just focus on being a trader if you want to? That way you would basically buy and sell depending on whatever you think you should be buying and selling.

However if you want to be an investor and really not get out unless something major happens, that way you would know that you get in for the long term and if you are in your 20's right now or early 30's which is the biggest crowd in the crypto world, you would basically be super rich by the time you should be retiring. The aim is not to go on a cruise ship vacation when you retire, the aim is to own a cruise ship of your own when you retire, so trading is not the solution for that at all.

That's true, buy we may need to see the market sentiment as well. If the sentiment market still good which mean there is nothing to worry that how far bitcoin prices down it will be increase again but it will be otherwise, something bad happen and it we lead us to the another dump. I can't imagine if bitcoin price touch below $5000 again since we already got I huge profit and we still decide to hold our bitcoin. At least if we see and make more analsyst about market sentiment we will be safe and we still have a chance to sell our bitcoin in the right place.

So hard to missed the train especially when there's something huge coming but as you said its his decision since not everyone can able to hold their feelings especially when we see the market crashing a little bit.

I predict that we will go on $20,000 or even $30,000 but above from that I can't imagine on how we can go that far but still its good to have that prediction.

I am guessing that I shall get out very soon. The price hit beyond 12k and I have always said that I will sell above 12k but I do not put an order there because I want to see how higher it would get, my idea failed because I was asleep. My idea is that I will see it go above 12k, and after it is 12k I will put a stop loss and sell it at 12k if it ever goes back down, but if it doesn't I would just wait for it, if it goes beyond 13k I would put my stop there, if it goes beyond 14k I would do that, and continue like that until it finally falls.

With above basis I should have sold at 12k when it went down but I was asleep, next time it happens which I believe will be this week as well, I will be doing it (if I am awake) because I got in a lot earlier in aprilish time at 6.5k so it would be smart to get out over 12k as well.

yeah....but ..it's my BTC gasp! I agree with your plan howerver..but I am a HODL addict

on the other hand, I need the BTC to it around 15k or more and THEN have ALTCOINS go crazy/stupid bubble as they have in the past

clean out all my shitcoin don't ya know

also needs to be under what is it 400k on a sale to stay at 15% cap gains or some such

the older I get however the less I give a flying f*ck about selling BTC just to be contrary....I have means w/o BTC and collect social security next year..you get to an age wherein 20

years they are gonna stick you in a nursing home run by nice college co-eds and you get more and more onery year by year

I probably under no circumstances will ever touch the BTC proper because no need to ..pass it on to others probably

damn, not sure....my views change on this according to one outrageous BTC number from another

I SUPPOSE i could up my 'attractiveness' and flash a lot of money around fast cars/fast women/fast friends..but mainly I just want to nap...

  sell 10% of.your stash at 14k say 10 of 100 coins leaves you 90. Sell 10% or 9 of the 90 at 16 k.  Sell 8 of the remaining  81 at 20 k you are now down to 73 coins and you cashed 27 coins for more then 500k.

I will be selling a big part of my coin and leave the remaining, and that is the ones that are needed for the side business that I am into.

I get Bitcoin like almost everyday from the work I do, and I also send out some, but I have an amount I have kept aside as an investment and that’s the one I’m going to sell once the market hits another ATH price.

Then if the price should decrease after everything, then I will also be buying back my coins with some of the money I have gotten from selling the first.

When the price had dumped hard way back to 3k then majority of people do lost its confidence and trust with the market plus it comes next on a very long way of sideways movement that
we did even hardly reach or break that 9k price and the market had been stagnant for a while and i highly believe that majority didnt already expect that the market will able to recover anytime soon.
but look at on what happen for this time? It might not really be that a big rise but at least we are seeing some recovery and hope.Im not really into 6 digit kind of predictions but rather
im just also hoping to see the previous ATH and it would be great if we do able to break that one.It might not be on this year but on future years to come.

Six digits sounds like way too much, we are talking about bare bottom $100k and more which I think will not happen in this market cycle, I am sensing another eyeing towards the all time high price of $20k which is totally possible but I am not sure if it will be quickly or slowly, maybe we will not reach there neither but at least that is something we are tying to find right now and that is why I think people will try and that try could end up with success or failure.

At the end of the day $20k is something just 40% away or so, however $100k is around 10x right now, let's say 9x closer, there is a huuuuge difference between increasing 40% and increasing 900% that is why I think we should just forget about six digits for now and focus on the $20k all time high for now.

^ 1. at the moment there are countries that is in Recession so, probably if the vaccine is available in the market, many crypto investors would choose to invest in vaccine buy and sell champ option. So probably More or 30 to 40k.
2. I don't have a selling plan, this moment is the preparation for the big event. There are what we called analyst but nobody can predict the exact amount. for sure there would be new big investors that will pump the value.

I guess this is too early to discuss about planning for selling bitcoins. Because, we are just into the beginning days of bullish market and I'm sure we're going to have bullish trend for next 18 to 20 months. If you are not an active trader of bitcoins then definitely you should not plan up for selling bitcoins because this must be the right time to buy more rather than looking for selling. This way I'm seeing OP is trying to confuse naive bitcoiners.

Instead of planning for selling, people must look for buying options. This must be very perfect time for anyone to buy more bitcoin because we are going to have strong bullish markets in coming months.

This must be the very right time and anyone to apply the famous strategy of this community : "buying at every dips".

current price is close to the last times ath but thats it , it didnt surpassed it yet so yeah we are expecting for more than just 12-13k usd .

your doing a good job of hodling your coins , as long as there is no real reason for you to not continue your journey , go on  . we are on the time where crypto is useful and i think there will be no harder situation than this where crypto must be needed but i dont mean people will stop patronizing

Just wait for the next ATH,,, then people will be adjusting their predictions by adding another couple of zeros to their numbers;)

I mean, the million dollar games all happened around 2017, so I think we will be seeing more "normal" 6 digit predictions coming out from even the news guys soon. They are all quiet now because of embarrassment from their previous wrong calls;)

You are moderate in your prediction and more realistic but we never know what's going to happen beyond 2020 , nobody expect the pandemic and everyday and every week there's new story to tell about Cryptocurrency, we are  flooded with so many predictions hype and FUDS
we should be more realistic in every situation but at the same optimistic on  all these absurd predictions.

I'm not good with predictions but I'm good in technical analysis, the price recently breakout and for this time it is a successful breakout where it surpass the $12,000. We are in a uptrend so the price is continuing to increase and most of the trading strategies have high winning rate because of the current trend. I do trend following this current moment where I will only sell my positions if the trend will become invalidated or if there will be a huge dump and breakdowns. The price is continuing to increase and it is now surpassing the 52 week highs and for me it is good. As long as the trend will stay intact, my guess is that the bitcoin will reach its ATH and beat it and for me the price will go to its peak at $25,000 per each.

ever since 2015 that i entered bitcoin world and bought some coins during the crash i never had any plans to sell my bitcoins but that doesn't mean i don't sell anything. it is more like pulling out some fiat to enjoy the profit but mostly i consider bitcoin to be a currency and am willing to spend it specially whenever price is rising or has risen.

as for the top since you want a guess, i like to use the past performance. last "cycle" price went from $150 to a little less than $20,000 which is 13,233% rise. so if we are to see that much rise at least then we have to see price go from $3200 to $426,656.
but historically the rises become bigger and faster each round as more people adopt bitcoin and we may have more institutional investors coming in too. so $500k would be my guess for the next peak.

I guess the bitcoin price can increase more than $30k in the next bull run because, in the last bull run, the price can touch almost $20k. And bitcoin already gets halving, which means the reward reduces to half the amount than the previous time halving, and that can make the bitcoin price increase so high. We never know how the higher bitcoin price will be, but we see so many predictions in out there, so we can wait for a while and see how the bitcoin price will increase later.

But the important thing is we need to have a target price to sell, so we don't miss the highest price that will come soon. Besides that, with selling the bitcoin, we can buy back bitcoin when the price is down or making corrections again like before.

keeping the BTC hold/hoard..but awaiting a sh*tcoin/altcoin pump..about 10% of my hoard is that....they may hit the wind

on around 18 to 20k btc...i might flush the works at that point...what would be 'confusing' is if they went 'bubble high' as they did

while BTC was pumping back in the day....that will be an interesting 'pucker' choice..if that happens

anyway, like all plans it is probably based on 'fantasy' and I will hodl and accumulate both like an 'old lady' with cats...

(damn, a constant state of wtf and wtf should I do since I got into BTC/crypto in 2013....consitent confusion...as a mode of operation I have it seems.

Yeah like I'm super surprised by these $30k predictions. I figure those people must be new to bitcoin because there is no way you've been through a bitcoin bull run before and think this next one is only going to go up 50% over the last one haha. I think for most people who have been around for a while we understand that $100k is the main target for this market cycle, it may or may not hit it, but it's a reasonable prediction and the peak will likely fall relatively close to it. So yeah your 4x of the lowball predictions is a good system I guess haha.

$50,000 to 6 digits.


6 digits minimum.


I maybe dreaming of seeing the price hitting $100,000 at least in the next bubble, but then again early 2017, the highest prediction that I've seen in this community is $5000. But obviously, it was eclipses by many folds x4. So with some conservative estimates of $30,000 for most users, then I will go with the same hindsight that it will go on another x4 and could probably see 6 digits 2021-2022.

I dont predict 2020 is the top I think its just us meandering across the price range as we absorb the unusual monetary practise in dollar and other unusual circumstance.   Its quite clear they'll be a large development out of current economy into something more normal, whether thats a market that has a vaccine and is in decline or perhaps the market booms nominally from large amounts of 'free' dollars but we're going to see change from now.  
   Discussing profit taking justifies I think somewhat my near term target of like 13,500 for a top to this current rise.    People do tend to jump the gun in terms of selling too soon, I think grayscale is mentioned for something bullish but thats just another section of money and outside money perhaps and they can retract also.   How far we move downwards from there to repeat ourselves before coming back up I dont know, its a big step just to say we're looking for such a nearby top so need to wait for that first

Act as if there will be no new ATH because thats the base line, then you have surprise to the upside rather then expectations or worse a reliance on a higher price.

Nothing in life is guaranteed. You can be confident about things, but not certain about things.

If say $20,000 meant I could secure $10 million and still retain a respectable amount of BTC for whatever happens in the future then I'd be very tempted to do it. That would be far beyond my actual requirements already.

A future 20 or 50 or 100 million would be more than acceptable too, but I wouldn't actually need that much and I'm not sure I'd wish to risk not securing what I originally identified as a healthy amount to pull out just in case.

If $20,000 meant $1 million then, while that's obviously a figure most people will never see, that's not enough to be in complete control of the rest of your days in a first world country and I'd put my faith in the future and largely stay put as long as the rest of my finances were sound.

Yeah like I'll be pretty well set for life at $50,000+ BTC, and I don't have any worries about that price as that should be well below wherever the peak ends up being, so that's my starting point for selling and if it goes to $100k I plan on only having like 1 bitcoin left for that.

I think it'll probably go up close to $100k, maybe even shooting $10k or $20k+ passed it, but I'd prefer to get out a little early and be safe, and still set myself up for life, rather than chasing the bubble. But, like, if I would be set at $20k I'd still wait until like $40k or $50k to sell, cuz that is still suuuper safe territory and ya know why not double your money haha.

The weird thing about these $15k or $30k predictions is that the BOTTOM of the next bear market will probably be in that range. Like, I'm planning on using some of my profits to buy back in ideally near the bottom of the bear market (this past one I averaged ~$3550 ) and I'm hoping to get back in around like a $25k or so price to load back up...and these people think the top will be around that or even lower haha! Maybe they are confused on the question and are predicting the bottom of the next bear market instead of the next peak haha.

my plans are to hold until june of 2023.
but if btc goes to 100k before june of 2023 I will sell it all.

if doge goes to 10 cents before june of 2023 I will sell it all.

Ah, see I'm staying the hell away from altcoins now haha. In my old bitcoin age now I'm just going for the sure thing. I'm sure people will get rich as hell off altcoins, hell even just the past few weeks some of them have been going crazy, but I just stick to BTC, ETH, and LINK now. I stopped trading altcoins against bitcoin a couple years ago cuz its just way too unpredictable and I always ended up losing bitcoin in the long term. Now I just hold those three coins, and trade those three coins against USD, and only occasionally do a short term trade with an altcoin.

And Bitcoin is like 95% of my long term portfolio so I mostly only care about BTC, but also hope DeFi takes ETH to like $2k or $3k in the next couple years and I'm just enjoying my $200 worth of LINK skyrocket to $8k so far haha.

If he has enough coinage for that price to cover every possible requirement then more power to him. Wish I was in that position too. That might not be the case.

If I could afford to divest when it's nice and quiet I would. I hate to think how seized everything would be in the depths of another bubble.

Yes haha. Good response to the low balling predictions.

As you say, there would literally be no reason for a major crash ending the market cycle if BTC was only at $15k or $30k. $15k is still in the buildup phase before the market even gets hot so that makes no sense, and $30k is only 50% above the last peak which should produce the exact opposite of a crash - it should (and all of bitcoin history shows it produces) a buying frenzy.

Well that is a very bearish view I must say. Did you also think 2017 was only going to go to $2000?

Basically you're gonna sell at $20k, right as the market is starting to heat up, watch it go up a few hundred percent from there, kicking yourself the entire time. Just like anyone in 2017 who sold when it got back over $1000.

I suggest checking out previous bull runs if you really think it is only going to go a little bit higher than the last market cycle. At this point in the last cycle the price was like $700...and it went to $20k. So thinking the price won't do much more than double from here, is, well, a bold prediction! If you're happy with selling at $20k then that's cool, but I think for most of us we don't want to sell just before the main bull market begins, cuz that's kind of the worst time to sell.

All I have to say is that anyone who sells for $15,000 and leaves thinking they're a genius had better not come back here and haunt us with foam from their hurt butt flying all over the place. But they most likely will.

I've said it multiple times, but I'll say it again - the regular inability on display here of people to conceive the true scale of things beyond their present perception is going to do them some damage unless they open it up.

$70k

Will sell some before that. To be ahead of the FOMO.
HODL the rest....

$25k - $30k is the closest and more realistic figure in this current market cycle before the worst bear that you have described occurs, which will most likely happen on late 2021 or 2022.
Another bullish predictions is the $100k mark and it was considered as "possible", but not so possible at least in the current situation and market movements/sentiments. I'll be watching closely on what specific factors could drive the market to make a very bullish run before 2022.



Gradual selling. Sell at a realistic target range of $25k-$30k (depends on how Btc is working it's way up when it reaches beyond $25k. If Btc struggles to reach the $30k, I might be selling in the middle of this range.)
While the other fractions would be sold on a more bullish perspective. Say like beyond $50k-ish to $100k.

I think it's a maximum of $30, 000.


I'll sell everything I have and will start to accumulate once market correction starts, you know, when there's a hype the market will go into FOMO which would result to an overprice BTC, and with that, correction is necessary to make the market strong and that's the buying opportunity I'm waiting.

That's the market cycle I believe.


My prediction are short term prediction only, if bitcoin will reach a new ATH, that would only be a maximum of $30,000 and the price will start falling again due to correction.

There are a lot of people posting purely for signature campaign earnings who have no clue about how the 4 year cycle works. One dude predicting a top of $15,000 in this cycle. It’s at this point you realise what you’re dealing with here at times. Not everybody is in as fortunate a position as us but some of the stuff I read is embarrassing.

We’ll hit near to or even break $100,000 before 2022. Feel free to quote me if anybody feels the urge.

1. When we do talk about peak prices then no man or person on this world would really have that crystal ball for them to guess on what would be the price ahead.
   This is why we do keep on speculating and guessing due to unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency market.

2. Im doing on gradual sells depending on which price i had entered.Also my portfolio in talks of Bitcoin holdings then it is divided in two which the one is used for long term holds
   and another half is used for active trades. Profits that had been accumulated would be also divided in two which one half is been saved up and one is for active spending.

Each of us do have its own way neither you are a short or long term hodler.

It's too unpredictable. Anything from $100K-$500K would be "normal" and there could be unexpected deviations as well. There's no point in focusing too much on targets right now. During an actual bubble, we can gather more info from the chart, the altcoin market, etc. Right now, we have very little to go on except past cycles. With such a small sample, past cycles don't tell us much.


My top priority is riding an altcoin bubble to generate more BTC. DeFi is being hyped right now, but most of the market is still reeling from their 2018-2020 losses. When altcoin season finally kicks off, there is so much upside, so much latent demand waiting for new fast money opportunities.

When I see the makings of another blow-off top in BTCUSD like October-November 2013 or November-December 2017 I will start look at sell targets for BTC.

Well, there's a couple of contrarian views at least.

If a cycle between now and a future full on bear market can't manage the previous ATH or only managed 50% above it that would be genuinely bizarre and match no behaviour in the known universe. There will be more people and more money entering via more channels at a time when fewer coins are being made and existing owners believe in it more than ever so won't let go without some serious temptations dangled in front of them.

I don't think that in this cycle Bitcoin price will go all the way to 2018 peak. 15000$ might be the max we will see now although before that value some corrections are possible.
Personaly I don't intend to sell my Bitcoins, I will continue holding. Maybe just some very small part but at the moment I don't need fiat money and the profit might be even bigger in the near future.

to be honest i think the highest we will reach will be $30,000 in 5 years, it seems more realistic. I also don't believe in these absurd $500,000 even if it was 50 years from now


I would consider selling at $20,000 and then expect to fall to buy again and sell at $30,000 again.


I think you’re dreaming too high, don’t have any chance of the price reaching $60,000, I think it’s impossible

Two questions (just for fun, don't need comments about how nobody can predict the top or about how let's just focus on the next price movement):


1. How high and when do you think the price will peak at during the current market cycle, meaning before the next 2014/2015 or 2018 type bear market?

2. What is your selling plan for any long term bitcoin you are holding? Gradual selling? A single sell target - what is it? Just gonna see how things play out? Or maybe you plan on holding more long term and don't even plan on taking advantage of the market cycle.




Personally my guess would be the market tops out somewhere between $80k and $120k in late 2022, but just to be a bit safer I'm currently planning on starting to sell a little bit in the $50,000's, selling a bunch more in the 60k's and 70k's, probably only having a little bit left by $80k assuming it goes that high, and saving one Bitcoin for $100k just so I can say I sold at 6 digits in case it goes that high. But basically the vast majority I plan on selling between $60k and $80k which I'm perfectly happy with even if that ends up being several tens of thousand of dollar below the peak.

I know some people think it'll only go to $30k and some people think it'll go to $300k, so I'd be interested in your selling plan based on whatever prediction you have for this market cycle.